Sabres Development in 2023-24 - what say you?

[French Collection]

25 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres have 5 very winnable games in the next 6 (Car, Minn, Wpg, Pit, Bos and Chi).  Win at least 4 of these 6 and I think we’ll all feel much better about contending for the playoffs.

They are all winnable, it just depends which Sabres team shows up, the one that crushed Colorado or the one that caved to Philadelphia.

Stanley Cup powerhouse Vegas lost to prospect filled Anaheim last night. It’s not a league of perfect parity but on any given night you can win.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Hope you are right.

The team Ive been watching has the size, speed and talent to match up with pretty much anyone.

Its also looking like an immature squad that would rather make fancy plays with pucks and toy with opponents than take straight, hard lines and eliminate bodies. The coach seems to get it; he keeps harping on being direct and purposeful. The GM seems to get it; his newest acquisitions (Greenway, Johnson and to a lesser extent Clifton) are showing the way.

Their core, not so much.

I have no doubt the switch is there. Somebody better flip it soon.

Tuch has points in 5 of the last 6 and the Sabres are 4-2.

Thompson and Mitts also has points in 5 of the last six.

The Sabres scores 13g in the first 6 games and have scored 26 in the last 6.  Somethings are trending in the right direction.

GA - first 6 - 18 GA (differential -5), next 6 20GA (differential + 6).  

[dudacek]

31 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Tuch has points in 5 of the last 6 and the Sabres are 4-2.

Thompson and Mitts also has points in 5 of the last six.

The Sabres scores 13g in the first 6 games and have scored 26 in the last 6.  Somethings are trending in the right direction.

GA - first 6 - 18 GA (differential -5), next 6 20GA (differential + 6).  

Eye test over your 6 shows:

• Mostly good game they nearly pissed away late against an Ottawa team facing some serious adversity
• OK game against a good Devils team where they stayed in it largely because NJ’s goalie kinda sucked
• Best game of the season against a very good Colorado team
• A bad game against a mediocre Philly team that made a good UPL look like Kenny Dryden
• An awful game against a mediocre Philly team where they were booed off the ice
• A good game against a good but maybe not great Leaf team.

Yes, they are scoring more, but the trend I see in terms of their quality of play is simple inconsistency. They can play the right way. Too often, they don’t.

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Eye test over your 6 shows:

• Mostly good game they nearly pissed away late against an Ottawa team facing some serious adversity
• OK game against a good Devils team where they stayed in it largely because NJ’s goalie kinda sucked
• Best game of the season against a very good Colorado team
• A bad game against a mediocre Philly team that made a good UPL look like Kenny Dryden
• An awful game against a mediocre Philly team where they were booed off the ice
• A good game against a good but maybe not great Leaf team.

Yes, they are scoring more, but the trend I see in terms of their quality of play is simple inconsistency.

 

Ok, but 4 good games to two bad games is a ratio I can live with.  Yes UPL stole the 1st Philly games, but Jake Allen stole the Canadians game from us in the 1st 6.  Those things tend to even out.  I'll take an inconsistent team that scores 5 goals a night, as long as they continue to trend in the right direction.  

36 minutes ago, French Collection said:

They are all winnable, it just depends which Sabres team shows up, the one that crushed Colorado or the one that caved to Philadelphia.

Stanley Cup powerhouse Vegas lost to prospect filled Anaheim last night. It’s not a league of perfect parity but on any given night you can win.

In theory, all games are winnable, but reason says that we'll lose to the Bruins and/or the Canes.  

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Ok, but 4 good games to two bad games is a ratio I can live with.  Yes UPL stole the 1st Philly games, but Jake Allen stole the Canadians game from us in the 1st 6.  Those things tend to even out.  I'll take an inconsistent team that scores 5 goals a night, as long as they continue to trend in the right direction.  

I’m going to strongly disagree with the bold.

The Canadiens game, was, in a nutshell, what has been wrong with the Sabres.

Buffalo was clearly the more talented team, and it decided it was more interested in passing the puck around like the Harlem Globetrotters and creating highlight reel plays than it was in winning the game.

The Canadiens gave maximum effort to minimizing the dangers of the Sabres attack and to capitalizing on their rare chances. The low-skill team playing the right way won, the high-skill team playing the wrong way lost.

To your bigger point, 4 of 6 wasn’t what the Sabres gave us. We got 2 “good” games, 2 “decent” games and 2 “bad” games

You can’t fart around in the NHL. Puck luck determines far too many games.

You want to be successful over 82, you need 3 or 4 good and 1 or 2 decent for every bad because you’re going to lose half the decent games.

Edited November 6, 2023 by dudacek

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres have 5 very winnable games in the next 6 (Car, Minn, Wpg, Pit, Bos and Chi).  Win at least 4 of these 6 and I think we’ll all feel much better about contending for the playoffs.

Granted I think any game is winnable in the NHL but who’s the 5th winnable game you are referring to between Carolina and Boston? 

Carolina I guess?

[French Collection]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Granted I think any game is winnable in the NHL but who’s the 5th winnable game you are referring to between Carolina and Boston? 

Carolina I guess?

Canes haven’t been their typical selves this season, 7-5 with a 0 goal differential. I think the Sabres have a good chance vs them.

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Canes haven’t been their typical selves this season, 7-5 with a 0 goal differential. I think the Sabres have a good chance vs them.

Ya it’s definitely more about when than who, when it comes to nhl scheduling 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Thorny

[JustOneParade]

I realize this is totally irrational but I look at the Sabres next seven games as A-H-A-H-A-A-A. The difference is so stark in the way they play at home versus the road and I see 5-2. Forget the crowd but isn't there supposed to be some tactical advantage to playing at home?

[Norcal]

Who had this development on their bingo card?

 

[Thorny]

I’m entering into the “it’s complicated” stage within my marriage to fancy stats

[Weave]

21 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I’m entering into the “it’s complicated” stage within my marriage to fancy stats

Passes the eye test though.

[Thorny]

18 minutes ago, Weave said:

Passes the eye test though.

I think what I’m getting as is that the fancy stats seem to do a good job reflecting things on a more simple, basic, pass/fail, yes/no basis ie the stats telling me that Thompson is playing good defensively does in fact jive. I think where they run into trouble is when they start getting into the nitty gritty of their rankings, when it’s time to separate the 95% rotten tomatoes score of Citizen Kane from the 95% of Thor Ragnarok. I think their failings are most exposed when they get into more definitive “statements” of who is better than who and the numbers that get pulled in defence of those stances.

Is Zegras a top defensive player now? As recently as last year he was very poor on this front - I obviously believe he has improved but again, when players are bouncing around the extremes year to year I think that speaks to where the data is limited, but not critically flawed

i could also just be wrong, and Tage is truly the best defensive player in the game, along with…Sam Reinhart 

Edited November 8, 2023 by Thorny

[Weave]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I think what I’m getting as is that the fancy stats seem to do a good job reflecting things on a more simple, basic, pass/fail, yes/no basis ie the stats telling me that Thompson is playing good defensively does in fact jive. I think where they run into trouble is when they start getting into the nitty gritty of their rankings, when it’s time to separate the 95% rotten tomatoes score of Citizen Kane from the 95% of Thor Ragnarok. I think their failings are most exposed when they get into more definitive “statements” of who is better than who and the numbers that get pulled in defence of those stances.

Is Zegras a top defensive player now? As recently as last year he was very poor on this front - I obviously believe he has improved but again, when players are bouncing around the extremes year to year I think that speaks to where the data is limited, but not critically flawed

i could also just be wrong, and Tage is truly the best defensive player in the game, along with…Sam Reinhart 

My post was intended to elicit a chuckle.

I r fail.

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, Norcal said:

Who had this development on their bingo card?

I didn’t realize you posted this and started a thread on it. I think it deserves its own callout. 

[Norcal]

26 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I didn’t realize you posted this and started a thread on it. I think it deserves its own callout. 

Good call. It could use some thought