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Sabres Playoff Odds - Analytics likes our chances


matter2003
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MoneyPuck's Analytics Models think pretty highly of this years Sabres team...

Ranked 6th in their Power Rankings and they have the 13th best playoff odds in the NHL at 71.9%. Here is an explanation of how they come up with the odds.

Favor the Sabres to finish 3rd in the division with 98 points behind Boston(116) and Toronto(102)

https://www.moneypuck.com/about.htm

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Edited by matter2003
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27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don’t know how the model works, but teams that give up 300 goals don’t make the playoffs.

Well...the team most similar to the Sabres in that way were the 1975-1976 Penguins who scored 339 goals(2nd in the NHL to the the Flyers) but allowed 300 goals.  They actually DID make the playoffs but lost in the 1st round.  They had 2 games where 2 players scored a hattrick in the same game and had 2 players with over 50 goals.  Sabres are on pace to score 328 but allow 299. Sabres have 5 players in the top 37(t) in points(Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens). Sabres games feature an average of 7.73 goals scored this season, highest in the NHL, but Sharks(7.51 goals/game) and Kings(7 goals/game) are close.

 

"Overall, they were pretty much a .500 team that lost in the preliminary round of the playoffs (two games to one to the Toronto Maple Leafs) which is not really that exciting. BUT, their games had to be complete madness.

They were the second highest scoring team in the league, scoring 339 goals in 80 games, just nine goals behind the league-leading Philadelphia Flyers.

Jean Pronovost and Pierre Larouche both scored 50 goals, finishing third-and-fourth in the league. The Penguins also had three of the league’s top-10 point producers (Pronovost, Larouche, Apps) and five of the top-35 (Rick Kehoe at 28 and Lowell MacDonald at 33). Just for good measure, defenseman Ron Stackhouse was 39th to give them six of the top-40 scorers in the league.

Legitimately one of the best offensive teams in franchise history.

The only problem was they could not stop anybody, finishing near the bottom of the league in goals against. Their average game featured EIGHT GOALS, by far the highest mark in the league.

This team was so good offensively that they actually pulled off the dual hat trick feat TWICE, the only team in Penguins history to do that.

The first instance happened on December 17 in a 9-1 win over the California Golden Seals when Apps and Bob Kelly accomplished the feat. This was one of two games that season where the Penguins scored at least nine goals, and one of five where they scored at least eight goals. They also had 14(!) seven goal games. Total madness. Apps added two assists for a five-point effort, while Kelly had an assist for a four-point game."

Edited by matter2003
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4 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Why does it seem like whenever something nice or positive gets posted about the team. It could be really anything. Some form of this always seems to happen 😂

 

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12 years of trauma is hard to let go of for some people...it's become their default coping mechanism and part of their persona now.

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Sportsline (formerly the old CBS sports website) I have found strangely pretty accurate in their long term predictions.  For example, in the last few seasons when the Sabres had their 'hot starts', they never had them as a legit team and predicted them to fade as the season went on....and the Bills they have been pretty good the past 3-4 years in their early season predictions as far as how many wins they would have by the end. I have no idea what their methodology is...no idea if they simply get their analytics from other places though.

https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/standings/

With that said, right now they have the Sabres with a 48.1% chance of making the playoffs. Detroit is 6 points ahead of the Sabres in the standings but they have Detroit at only 13.9%.  They do not have the Sabres in the top 3 in the division though, they currently have their chances with only a wildcard.  They do have San Jose as the worst team in the league right now...and they project Vegas to win the presidents trophy in a close battle with Boston, Toronto, and Florida climbing back into the fight according to their statistical models.

Edited by mjd1001
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This can be fun to watch, but I knew last night the were going to lose from the initial pick drop.  They had no energy while the older Pitt team was skating down hill immediately.  

This team isn’t coming close to the playoff even if they score 500 goals, because the style they play allows 2 great chances on goal for the 1 we get.  
 

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