Buffalo Sabres Cap Projection

[Curt]

For some time I’ve been mulling over creating a spreadsheet that projects the Sabres cap over the next several seasons.  Recently I finally found the time to start working on it and I’ve finished something of a rough draft.  It seemed a waste to keep it just to myself, so I’m going to post it here for everyone to view or critique or use however you like.

The Sabres don’t have a lot of guys locked up to long term contracts right now and the roster is set up for maximum flexibility moving forward, so I had to make a lot of judgment calls when projecting things out.  I did my best.

I plan to keep updating this over time.  In the next couple years things will solidify a bit as some guys sign long term and we get a better idea of how the cap will increase.

 

Click Below to View Spreadsheet:

Export.pdf

 

Edited July 16, 2022 by Curt

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, Curt said:

For some time I’ve been mulling over creating a spreadsheet that projects the Sabres cap over the next several seasons.  Recently I finally found the time to start working on it and I’ve finished something of a rough draft.  It seemed a waste to keep it just to myself, so I’m going to post it here for everyone to view or critique or use however you like.

The Sabres don’t have a lot of guys locked up to long term contracts right now and the roster is set up for maximum flexibility moving forward, so I had to make a lot of judgment calls when projecting things out.  I did my best.

I plan to keep updating this over time.  In the next couple years things will solidify a bit as some guys sign long term and we get a better idea of how the cap will increase.

 

Click Below to View Spreadsheet:

Export.pdf 373.49 kB · 3 downloads

Nice.

🍺

[fmr60]

Very well done.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, fmr60 said:

Very well done.

Thank you 🙏🏼.  I plan on keeping it updated over time.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Great attempt on nearly an impossible task.  I worked on one of these in the past and I kept bogging down on prospect integration, with questions like when do Kulich and Savoie make the team and whose jobs do they take? How quickly will it take Levi to make the NHL and then assume the starter's job.  

My guess is the Sabres and NHL teams in general have a financial planning of sorts that does Monte Carlo simulations to help them make salary and term decisions.   

I like many of your assumptions, but have to quibble with a couple.  I think Cozens gets another bridge deal for 2-3 years before he gets a truly big $ contract, but I love the faith in a huge breakout.  I also think Mitts has a bigger season this year.  I'd probably flip the estimates. I also agree that Krebs' term with the Sabres is probably very limited.

I really like the work on the defense and I hope Comrie plays well enough to earn the big $ extension.  

[Curt]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Great attempt on nearly an impossible task.  I worked on one of these in the past and I kept bogging down on prospect integration, with questions like when do Kulich and Savoie make the team and whose jobs do they take? How quickly will it take Levi to make the NHL and then assume the starter's job.  

My guess is the Sabres and NHL teams in general have a financial planning of sorts that does Monte Carlo simulations to help them make salary and term decisions.   

I like many of your assumptions, but have to quibble with a couple.  I think Cozens gets another bridge deal for 2-3 years before he gets a truly big $ contract, but I love the faith in a huge breakout.  I also think Mitts has a bigger season this year.  I'd probably flip the estimates. I also agree that Krebs' term with the Sabres is probably very limited.

I really like the work on the defense and I hope Comrie plays well enough to earn the big $ extension.  

Thanks.  It’s really just a lot of guesses.  This team is so young that the variables are endless.  At this point I don’t expect this to be correct.

I believe in Cozens as a worker who will steadily improve, and I think the organization values greatly what he brings off  the ice too.  I could see them committing to him.

I hope Comrie earns that too, but it might not take any great feat.  Husso got a bigger contract than that this offseason after just 40 games of above average results.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Very good job.  It's a hard job.

A few points ...

Tuch - looks like you have signing an extension at 5.5 when he is paid almost 5 now ??  That's a heck of a home team discount.

Comrie ... I hope you're right !!

UPL ... gone ??  No extension.

Levi ... looks like you have him only on a 1 year ELC ??

[Taro T]

36 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Very good job.  It's a hard job.

A few points ...

Tuch - looks like you have signing an extension at 5.5 when he is paid almost 5 now ??  That's a heck of a home team discount.

Comrie ... I hope you're right !!

UPL ... gone ??  No extension.

Levi ... looks like you have him only on a 1 year ELC ??

Yes, for Levi, he'll be 21 when he signs which would get him a 2 yr ELC.  But he'll burn the 1st year this year.

 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Very good job.  It's a hard job.

A few points ...

Tuch - looks like you have signing an extension at 5.5 when he is paid almost 5 now ??  That's a heck of a home team discount.

Comrie ... I hope you're right !!

UPL ... gone ??  No extension.

Levi ... looks like you have him only on a 1 year ELC ?

Thank you 🙏🏼

For Tuch, basically projecting that he tops out around a 50 point guy, and signs a bit of a hometown deal.  He’ll be 30 by that time will be a good middle 6 guy for Buffalo, but not a star.

Comrie, just a hopeful guess really.

UPL, washout, backup for a season but wasn’t very good, back to the AHL or wherever.

Levi, what Taro said.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Curt

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Another thing ...

I will go against the grain a bit here and say that I expect Krebs to be part of this team for a long time.

[French Collection]

45 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Another thing ...

I will go against the grain a bit here and say that I expect Krebs to be part of this team for a long time.

Because KA traded for him I feel the same way.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

5 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Because KA traded for him I feel the same way.

He was the prospect that KA demanded and got in that trade.  I can't see KA asking for prospect 'x' and Vegas saying 'no way, but you can have Krebs instead'.

Edited July 19, 2022 by Sabres Fan in NS
inserting missing letters ... more goodly

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Another thing ...

I will go against the grain a bit here and say that I expect Krebs to be part of this team for a long time.

It depends on if Krebs comes along or not.

Right now I like the skating, the hands, and the attitude, both on and off ice.

However, the shot and the decision making hasn’t been good.  I think there is a chance he improves on those, but also a chance he doesn’t. I still like him alright.

Had to make choices when doing this.

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, Curt said:

It depends on if Krebs comes along or not.

Right now I like the skating, the hands, and the attitude, both on and off ice.

However, the shot and the decision making hasn’t been good.  I think there is a chance he improves on those, but also a chance he doesn’t. I still like him alright.

Had to make choices when doing this.

it's going to be interesting how things shake out in terms of how stays and who goes and I hope Kevyn is more patient than the fan base.

The best example I can think of is Olofsson, who many are prepared to trade despite the fact he's, what, the 3rd most successfully developmental guy we have, after Dahlin and Thompson?

Jokiharju, Mitts and now Krebs are joining him. Some Cozens doubt is even starting to creep in.

It's easier to move on when you've got a long list of prospects pushing from behind and you're impatient for wins.

Basically, a lot of fans go from sky-high hope for a shiny new toy to moving on to the next guy in a remarkably short time when really it's going to take 200-300 games to see what we have.

Peyton Krebs was a point-a-game-player in Rochester this year after scoring 43 point in 24 games in his last season of junior.

He is 21 with 48 Sabres games under his belt and needs to get better. I suspect he will.

Edited July 19, 2022 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

it's going to be interesting how things shake out in terms of how stays and who goes and I hope Kevyn is more patient than the fan base.

The best example I can think of is Olofsson, who many are prepared to trade despite the fact he's, what, the 3rd most successfully developmental guy we have, after Dahlin and Thompson?

Jokiharju, Mitts and now Krebs are joining him. Some Cozens doubt is even starting to creep in.

It's easier to move on when you've got a long list of prospects pushing from behind and you're impatient for wins.

Basically, a lot of fans go from sky-high hope for a shiny new toy to moving on to the next guy in a remarkably short time when really it's going to take 200-300 games to see what we have.

Peyton Krebs was a point-a-game-player in Rochester this year after scoring 43 point in 24 games in his last season of junior.

He is 21 with 48 Sabres games under his belt and needs to get better. I suspect he will.

When I did the poll for the Breakout Thread it was really cool being able to include so many players on the roster.  Outside of Anderson, Okposo, Girgensons, Lyubushkin, Bjork, Skinner, Hinostroza, Fitz, and Thompson (who broke out last year), I felt a legit case could be made for everyone else on the roster even Bryson and Jokiharju.  I still think Dahlin is only scratching the surface and could easily become a 70 pt player.  I also think Krebs, Cozens, and Mitts all have another gear or two.  The poll helped me truly understand why KA is preaching patience.   

[Curt]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

it's going to be interesting how things shake out in terms of how stays and who goes and I hope Kevyn is more patient than the fan base.

The best example I can think of is Olofsson, who many are prepared to trade despite the fact he's, what, the 3rd most successfully developmental guy we have, after Dahlin and Thompson?

Jokiharju, Mitts and now Krebs are joining him. Some Cozens doubt is even starting to creep in.

It's easier to move on when you've got a long list of prospects pushing from behind and you're impatient for wins.

Basically, a lot of fans go from sky-high hope for a shiny new toy to moving on to the next guy in a remarkably short time when really it's going to take 200-300 games to see what we have.

Peyton Krebs was a point-a-game-player in Rochester this year after scoring 43 point in 24 games in his last season of junior.

He is 21 with 48 Sabres games under his belt and needs to get better. I suspect he will.

I try not to get too influenced by any one stretch of play from a really young player.  These guys are all learning right now and they are going to have ups and downs.  I want this team to win like everyone else, but I’m also super interested to how these guys grow together over the next couple years.

56 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

When I did the poll for the Breakout Thread it was really cool being able to include so many players on the roster.  Outside of Anderson, Okposo, Girgensons, Lyubushkin, Bjork, Skinner, Hinostroza, Fitz, and Thompson (who broke out last year), I felt a legit case could be made for everyone else on the roster even Bryson and Jokiharju.  I still think Dahlin is only scratching the surface and could easily become a 70 pt player.  I also think Krebs, Cozens, and Mitts all have another gear or two.  The poll helped me truly understand why KA is preaching patience.   

I know!  I’ve opened that thread a couple times, but can’t decide who to vote for!

[matter2003]

It's a good effort, I just think with so many young players that are going to be up for contracts in the next few years, they are likely going to have to make decisions on who to let go and who to bring back...likely will not be able to keep everyone...and likely will be adding some key UFA's or trade deadline acquisitions when the time is right to help accelerate the build. As long as they don't gut the prospect pool like GMTM and to a lesser degree Botts did while doing so, I am good with it.  The way Adams is doing it reminds me a lot of how Regier accumulated prospects and picks and let them develop. Haven't added our Drury or Briere yet to accelerate things but we aren't quite to that point yet.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

It's a good effort, I just think with so many young players that are going to be up for contracts in the next few years, they are likely going to have to make decisions on who to let go and who to bring back...likely will not be able to keep everyone...and likely will be adding some key UFA's or trade deadline acquisitions when the time is right to help accelerate the build. As long as they don't gut the prospect pool like GMTM and to a lesser degree Botts did while doing so, I am good with it.  The way Adams is doing it reminds me a lot of how Regier accumulated prospects and picks and let them develop. Haven't added our Drury or Briere yet to accelerate things but we aren't quite to that point yet.

Certainly.  I mostly agree.  I don’t expect this to be a correct prediction.  It’s more of a rough sketch.

Right now the Sabres have tons of prospects and unlimited cap space, so the possibilities are endless.  As the Sabres commit to a few more guys long term, the team’s options will become more limited.  At that point this spreadsheet will become more useful as a look forward to examine what financial options and issues are on the horizon for the Sabres.

[matter2003]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Certainly.  I mostly agree.  I don’t expect this to be a correct prediction.  It’s more of a rough sketch.

Right now the Sabres have tons of prospects and unlimited cap space, so the possibilities are endless.  As the Sabres commit to a few more guys long term, the team’s options will become more limited.  At that point this spreadsheet will become more useful as a look forward to examine what financial options and issues are on the horizon for the Sabres.

Yes, most certainly...they also are being very smart and not committing needless long term contracts right now except for their own players they have developed to give them maximum flexibility.