Shopping Jack Eichel: Los Angeles

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He’s got great skill. So does Alex Nylander.

Eklund’s tenaciousness and the way he thinks the game make him a better fit at centre than Johnson, in my opinion.

I know you've gone to Nylander with him but I'm not sure I really see that. There are plenty of scouting reports that see it differently, too:

Steve Kournianos - The Draft Analyst - May 24th: "Although he’s gotten the most attention for his dangles, lacrosse goals, and spin-o-ramas, Johnson displays a strong effort off the puck and can do the heavy lifting during offensive-zone possessions."

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2021-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Kent-Johnson

1 minute ago, Curt said:

I feel like Johnson has a lot of the Mittelstadt type of thing where his hands are quick but he can’t problem solve out on the ice.  He defaults to trying to stick handle through the defense even when there is no opening and just loses the puck.  Also like Mitts, he has a lot of physical maturing to go through.

I've heard he has one of the highest IQs in the draft haha. Guess it depends on who you ask 

Edited July 8, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I won't argue the point even if I've read different as Johnson being drafted wasn't really a key part of my scenario. 

But Eklund not being a centre is.

He’s been a centre and continues to be one when he plays with his peers at the junior national level. He was shifted to the wing this year as a teen with men in the elite league as many teens are.

Edited July 8, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

But Eklund not being a centre is.

He’s been a centre and continues to be one when he plays with his peers at the junior national level. He was shifted to the wing this year as a teen with men in the elite league as many teens are.

I've read a ton about how he's expected to project to wing. I wasn't counting him as a sure thing in either scenario - like I said, I consider him a "maybe". I'm not comfortable with Cozens Mittelstadt and a maybe being the top 3, and really, the extent of our C depth 

Edited July 8, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

We don't have to get Turcottte or Vilardi or Johnson or Beniers or keep Reinhart or Eichel and maybe Cozens ends up on wing: either way, all I'm saying is we need to add some prospective top 6 centres to the system this year beyond Eklund

You don't subtract a franchise 1C and a top 6 C and add a prospective LW/C and call it a day. And I'm not talking depth adds, either. Guys with top 6 ceilings. If we don't do it now, it'll just be the target for the 2022 draft. And I fear it will make that draft our target.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Thorny

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I know you've gone to Nylander with him but I'm not sure I really see that. There are plenty of scouting reports that see it differently, too:

Steve Kournianos - The Draft Analyst - May 24th: "Although he’s gotten the most attention for his dangles, lacrosse goals, and spin-o-ramas, Johnson displays a strong effort off the puck and can do the heavy lifting during offensive-zone possessions."

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2021-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Kent-Johnson

I've heard he has one of the highest IQs in the draft haha. Guess it depends on who you ask 

I think people said similar things about Mittelstadt.

Johnson is pretty fancy with the hands, but I think he has a lot of development ahead of him before he can be a serviceable NHLer.

The fact that he played on Beniers wing on a stacked team, and didn’t put up many primary points (a lot of his points were secondary assists where his line mates directly created the scoring chance) is pretty concerning to me.

Johnson- 14 of his 27 points were secondary assists, 52%

Beniers- 5 of his 24 points were secondary assists, 21%

Power- 2 of his 16 points were secondary assists, 12.5%

From guys on the same team who mostly player together, this is pretty striking.

[Thorny]

Just now, Curt said:

I think people said similar things about Mittelstadt.

Johnson is pretty fancy with the hands, but I think he has a lot of development ahead of him before he can be a serviceable NHLer.

The fact that he played on Beniers wing on a stacked team, and didn’t put up many primary points (a lot of his points were secondary assists where his line mates directly created the scoring chance) is pretty concerning to me.

Johnson- 14 of his 27 points were secondary assists, 52%

Beniers- 5 of his 24 points were secondary assists, 21%

Power- 2 of his 16 points were secondary assists, 12.5%

From guys on the same team who mostly player together, this is pretty striking.

I remember Matthew Tkachuk having a high secondary assist total his draft year and telling Liger I wasn't worried about it. The sample sizes there are tiny 

[Thorny]

Jack Quinn scored 52 goals and looks like he'll probably be a playmaker. You just never know with these guys - that was kind of my point. In a perceived weak draft there may be a GM who doesn't see a huge amount of value separation between 3 and 8. To simplify: If I was GM, I'd sooner take the Ducks deal as I would simply draft Eklund at 1 and Beniers at 3 (ideally he's there). But what if he's not there? I'm not sure I like the Anaheim deal better anymore if Power is the pick. My working thought is indeed that's who we would get, who Adams would take - Eklund and Power - which is why I was making the case for the LA deal. Is the Ducks offer still better if it's McTavish? It's hard to say with these guys. 

Edited July 8, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

27 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I know you've gone to Nylander with him but I'm not sure I really see that. There are plenty of scouting reports that see it differently, too:

Steve Kournianos - The Draft Analyst - May 24th: "Although he’s gotten the most attention for his dangles, lacrosse goals, and spin-o-ramas, Johnson displays a strong effort off the puck and can do the heavy lifting during offensive-zone possessions."

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2021-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Kent-Johnson

I've heard he has one of the highest IQs in the draft haha. Guess it depends on who you ask 

He's very creative but idk if I would say he has a high hockey IQ. 

Just now, Thorny said:

Jack Quinn scored 52 goals and looks like he'll probably be a playmaker. You just never know with these guys - that was kind of my point. In a perceived weak draft there may be a GM who doesn't see a huge amount of value separation between 3 and 8. To simplify: If I was GM, I'd sooner take the Ducks deal as I would simply draft Eklund at 1 and Beniers at 3 (ideally he's there). But what if he's not there? I'm not sure I like the Anaheim deal better anymore if Power is the pick. My working thought is indeed that's who we would get - Eklund and Power - which is why I was making the case for the LA deal. Is the Ducks offer still better if it's McTavish? It's hard to say with these guys. 

That's because he was the trigger guy on the pp. 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

He's very creative but idk if I would say he has a high hockey IQ. 

That's because he was the trigger guy on the pp. 

Right - a good example of some of the situationality that's always going on - and the sample sizes are often small 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

Right - a good example of some of the situationality that's always going on - and the sample sizes are often small 

But I can reverse that as well. You are suggesting he is a playmaker because of his Rochester play when in reality he is a swiss army knife. He can be the trigger guy, the playmaker, the 2way defensively responsible guy. One reason I have a lot of hope for Quinn making it to 60 or 70 points one day is his adaptability. 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

But I can reverse that as well. You are suggesting he is a playmaker because of his Rochester play when in reality he is a swiss army knife. He can be the trigger guy, the playmaker, the 2way defensively responsible guy. One reason I have a lot of hope for Quinn making it to 60 or 70 points one day is his adaptability. 

You can reverse it, ya. I'm not trying to argue anything definite merely that the junior numbers aren't always predictive of the mold a player will slip into. Just because a player is used a certain way for a certain team for a period of time doesn't mean that's the role/contribution they'll show/commit at the NHL level. 

Edited July 8, 2021 by Thorny

[Curt]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I remember Matthew Tkachuk having a high secondary assist total his draft year and telling Liger I wasn't worried about it. The sample sizes there are tiny 

M Tkachuk- 39 secondary assists out of 107 points, 36%

Roughly in the middle between Beniers and Johnson.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

You can reverse it, ya. I'm not trying to argue anything definite merely that the junior numbers aren't always predictive of the mold a player will slip into. Just because a player is used a certain way for a certain team for a period of time doesn't mean that's the role/contribution they'll show/commit at the NHL level. 

Role can certainly change but I want to add if you don't contribute in juniors, you don't in the NHL. 

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, Curt said:

M Tkachuk- 39 secondary assists out of 107 points, 36%

Roughly in the middle between Beniers and Johnson.

and over 20ish game sample sizes (50 for tkachuk) there's not a ton I can hang my hat on there. Tkachuk had a 21% secondary assist rate this year. Johnson having a high secondary rate over a grand total of 26 games is not going to sway me relative to a fair few other factors

Edited July 8, 2021 by Thorny

[Huckleberry]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But I can reverse that as well. You are suggesting he is a playmaker because of his Rochester play when in reality he is a swiss army knife. He can be the trigger guy, the playmaker, the 2way defensively responsible guy. One reason I have a lot of hope for Quinn making it to 60 or 70 points one day is his adaptability. 

Mark stone ceiling if we are lucky.

[Thorny]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

Mark stone ceiling if we are lucky.

Having a ceiling of an arguable top 10 forward in the league is a pretty lofty ceilng imo

If Quinn reaches that level odds suggest he'd be the best player from his draft

[Curt]

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's because he was the trigger guy on the pp. 

In part, but Quinn also scored more ES goals than any other draft eligible CHL player.

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

and over 20ish game sample sizes (50 for tkachuk) there's not a ton I can hang my hat on there. Tkachuk had a 21% secondary assist rate this year. Johnson having a high secondary rate over a grand total of 26 games is not going to sway me relative to a fair few other factors

Fair I guess, but it’s not just the numbers for me.  I see evidence of the numbers reflected in his play.

Just to be clear, I think Johnson is very skilled, and I don’t think people who say he is the most skilled guy in the draft are way off base.  I just think he’ll need to go through quite a bit of development before those skills play in the NHL.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Curt

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

M Tkachuk- 39 secondary assists out of 107 points, 36%

Roughly in the middle between Beniers and Johnson.

My issue is that Kent Johnson's offensive involvement percentage with only primary points is 13.7%... Beniers is 23.61%

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

In part, but Quinn also scored more ES goals than any other draft eligible CHL player.

Yea, 2 more than Seth Jarvis who was playing on a worse team and outproduced the next closest person on his team by 28 points and is 4.5 months younger. 

All while have a sh% that should have raised eyebrows. I like Quinn, I really do but I worry about him greatly. 

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

My issue is that Kent Johnson's offensive involvement percentage with only primary points is 13.7%... Beniers is 23.61%

I don’t even know what that means.  Lol

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Yea, 2 more than Seth Jarvis who was playing on a worse team and outproduced the next closest person on his team by 28 points and is 4.5 months younger. 

All while have a sh% that should have raised eyebrows. I like Quinn, I really do but I worry about him greatly. 

Yeah, I was just saying.  You’ll pry no Jarvis slander out of me!

[Thorny]

24 minutes ago, Curt said:

Fair I guess, but it’s not just the numbers for me.  I see evidence of the numbers reflected in his play.

Just to be clear, I think Johnson is very skilled, and I don’t think people who say he is the most skilled guy in the draft are way off base.  I just think he’ll need to go through quite a bit of development before those skills play in the NHL.

Some view Power as somewhat of a project as well 

[Hoss]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

That's because he was the trigger guy on the pp. 

All 52 goals?

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

But I can reverse that as well. You are suggesting he is a playmaker because of his Rochester play when in reality he is a swiss army knife. He can be the trigger guy, the playmaker, the 2way defensively responsible guy. One reason I have a lot of hope for Quinn making it to 60 or 70 points one day is his adaptability. 

I think the most likely career for Quinn is Jason Pominville. He’s a guy who will set them up, finish them and stop them, and a guy who play when you’re up a man and down a man and when you are up a goal and down a goal. He will be a guy teammates respect and coaches lean on. He won’t dazzle you, but he will always show up.

I think it’s ironic that @Thorny is such a big fan of Pommers yet lukewarm on Quinn.

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Having a ceiling of an arguable top 10 forward in the league is a pretty lofty ceilng imo

If Quinn reaches that level odds suggest he'd be the best player from his draft

Insert Jack Nicholson evil grin gif here.

I find the anti-hype for this guy - almost certainly the highest potential winger we’ve drafted since Thomas Vanek - remarkable.

Edited July 9, 2021 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

I don’t even know what that means.  Lol

Yeah, I was just saying.  You’ll pry no Jarvis slander out of me!

It looks at your offensive involvement. So how many of your teams goals were you involved with by scoring or producing the primary assist.