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Your Playoff Opponent Guide | Updated


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Tuesday is going to be really interesting...at 7:30 it might look like we're playing the Flyers, at 8:30 like it'll be the Devils, and at 9:30 like the Rangers are coming here next weekend, or vice versa.

 

The Sabres finally get another OLN game (what's that, only 3 this year?) and of course it's on a night when I would just assume they telecast the Montreal-NJ game which has much more significance at both ends of the playoff race.

 

My gut feeling, which goes against the trends of how teams have been playing, is that the Rangers put together a decent effort and beat an uninterested Ottawa team, the Flyers beat the Islanders, and Montreal beats NJ in a game that Montreal likely will have to win/ lose in OT to make the playoffs...in that case Philly comes in. We'll see.

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Assuming no OT games:

 

We face NJ if:

Everyone wins

Everyone loses

NYR wins, Phi and NJ lose

NYR and NJ win, Phi loses

 

We face NY if:

Phi wins, NYR and NJ lose

NJ wins, Phi and NYR lose

 

We face Phi if:

NYR and Phi win, NJ loses

NJ and Phi win, NYR loses

 

So, if NYR loses, 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have us NOT playing NJ.

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I think Philadelphia gives us the best matchup..

 

Questionable goaltending and a slower team.

 

Forsberg and Gagne are dangerous, no doubt. But I think we can match them if we use our speed.

 

 

 

I'll be willing to bet that forsberg is close to being done for the playoffs. He participated in the pregame skate yesterday but his groin was too injured for him to play. Sure, he'll play in the playoffs, but i wouldn't expect any skating speed from the guy.

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There are 27 possible combinations. They end up NJ ~40.7% NYR ~33.3%, Phi ~%26%

 

We face NJ if:

NYR W, NJ W, Phi W

NYR L, NJ L, Phi L

NYR OTL, NJ OTL, Phi OTL

NYR W, Phi L, NJ L

NYR W, NJ W, Phi L

NYR W, NJ W, Phi OTL

NYR W, NJ OTL, Phi L

NYR W, NJ OTL, Phi OTL

NYR L, NJ OTL, Phi W

NYR OTL, NJ L, Phi L

NYR OTL, NJ OTL, Phi L

11/27

 

We face NY if:

NYR L, NJ L, Phi W

NYR L, NJ W, Phi L

NYR L, NJ W, Phi OTL

NYR L, NJ OTL, Phi L

NYR L, NJ OTL, Phi OTL

NYR OTL, NJ W, Phi L

NYR OTL, NJ W, Phi OTL

NYR OTL, NJ OTL, Phi W

NYR OTL, NJ L, Phi W

9/27

 

We face Phi if:

NYR W, NJ L, Phi W

NYR L, NJ W, Phi W

NYR W, NJ L, Phi OTL

NYR W, NJ OTL, Phi W

NYR L, NJ L, Phi OTL

NYR OTL, NJ L, Phi OTL

NYR OTL, NJ W, Phi W

7/27

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There are only 27 possible combinations, although they do end up NJ ~40% NYR, Phi ~%30

 

We face NJ if:

NYR W, NJ W, Phi W

NYR L, NJ L, Phi L

NYR OTL, NJ OTL, Phi OTL

NYR W, Phi L, NJ L

NYR W, NJ W, Phi L

NYR W, NJ W, Phi OTL

NYR W, NJ OTL, Phi L

NYR W, NJ OTL, Phi OTL

NYR L, NJ OTL, Phi W

NYR OTL, NJ L, Phi L

NYR OTL, NJ OTL, Phi L

11/27

 

We face NY if:

NYR L, NJ L, Phi W

NYR L, NJ W, Phi L

NYR L, NJ W, Phi OTL

NYR L, NJ OTL, Phi L

NYR L, NJ OTL, Phi OTL

NYR OTL, NJ W, Phi W

NYR OTL, NJ W, Phi L

NYR OTL, NJ W, Phi OTL

8/27

 

We face Phi if:

NYR W, NJ L, Phi W

NYR L, NJ W, Phi W

NYR W, NJ L, Phi OTL

NYR W, NJ OTL, Phi W

NYR L, NJ L, Phi OTL

NYR OTL, NJ L, Phi W

NYR OTL, NJ L, Phi OTL

NYR OTL, NJ OTL, Phi W

8/27

Are you sure about the ones where NY OTL's and Philly wins? That would give Rangers and Philly both 101 points, but Philly would have 45 wins and NY would have 44. Philly should win the tie breaker w/ NY and end up the #3 seed, and NY end up the #5 seed in the cases where NJ ends up with less than 101 and would give Philly #5 and NY #6 when NJ gets 101. Or am I missing something here?

 

That scenario explains my discrepancy with the D&C and with your calcs.

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Are you sure about the ones where NY OTL's and Philly wins? That would give Rangers and Philly both 101 points, but Philly would have 45 wins and NY would have 44. Philly should win the tie breaker w/ NY and end up the #3 seed, and NY end up the #5 seed in the cases where NJ ends up with less than 101 and would give Philly #5 and NY #6 when NJ gets 101. Or am I missing something here?

 

That scenario explains my discrepancy with the D&C and with your calcs.

You're right. I figured I'd make a mistake somewhere, but I didn't have time to check as I had to get to class. I've updated the errors you pointed out.

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My gut feel is that the Flyers will beat the Isles tonight. If that happens, the Sabres only play the Devils if NJ and NYR both win or if NJ loses in OT and NYR loses in regulation. There are 4 scenarios (of 9) that the Sabres play the Flyers and 3 where they play the Rangers if Philly wins tonight.

 

It pains me to say it, but Let's Go Flyers and Let's Go Habs.

 

We should know what to be rooting for in the Jersey game by the time that one gets into the 3rd, as it's a 7:30 start and all the others that we care about are 7:00 starts.

 

In 3 of the 9 possible combinations of Flyers and Rangers outcomes, it doesn't matter what NJ does as far as Buffalo having to play them in the 1st round.

 

If the Rangers win and Philly loses, Buffalo plays NJ no matter what NJ does.

 

If the Flyers win and Rangers lose in OT, the Sabres will play NY or Philly no matter what NJ does, w/ Buffalo playing Philly w/ a Devils win and playing NYR with a Devils loss or OTL.

 

If the Rangers lose in regulation and the Flyers lose in OT, the Sabres will play NY or Philly no matter what NJ does, w/ Buffalo playing Philly w/ a Devils loss and playing NYR with a Devils win or OTL.

 

In any of the other 6 possible Philly / NYR combinations, the Sabres may end up playing NJ.

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With about 10 minutes left in the Devils game, the Sabres can still end up playing any of the Atlantic boys.

 

If NJ ends up losing outright (they are down 3-1), Sabres will play the Rangers.

 

If NJ wins, Sabres will play the Flyers.

 

An OTL for NJ, and the swamprats are heading to Buffalo.

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so we'd play philly.....ok I can handle that too. anything but nj, not because they're scary....well sort of, but they are dreadfully boring and i'm going to game 5 (hopefully) so i really dont want my first playoff game to be nj, reallllllllly don'tt....

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so we'd play philly.....ok I can handle that too. anything but nj, not because they're scary....well sort of, but they are dreadfully boring and i'm going to game 5 (hopefully) so i really dont want my first playoff game to be nj, reallllllllly don'tt....

Devils win 4-3. They will host the Rangers.

 

Sabres host Flyers.

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I am not sure how crazy I am playing Philly right now. I am thinking the Rangers would have been a better fit. Oh well, hopefully history repeats itself and we send Philly to the golf course once again. In any event, what a season. A total success. Go Sabres!

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