Depth Scoring

[Randall Flagg]

As I alluded to in another thread, forward depth is a problem that has plagued this team despite several different attempts to build it up since the tank ended. That was mostly anecdotal though, so I went through every team and plotted the points that were scored by their non-top-six players*. 

 

Our non-top-six players did not score the fewest goals, as Dallas and Calgary apparently had pitiful depth too, but our non-top-six players tied Philly for the fewest points out of those players. Philly's top 6 beat ours by 97 points as well, so their offense was still decent. 

I also grabbed each team's "top 6 forwards" by this definition and plotted them with the same x-axis, I'll put it below the original plot so we can see which teams are balanced, which are heavily top-loaded, and anomalies either way. 

As far as the Sabres go, there are 10 teams with fewer points from their top 6 than us even though Jack probably missed out on about 15-20 points by being injured, and 4 of those were playoff teams. So while we do need to improve scoring across the board, depth is going to continue to be a problem unless we get a real, no-BS youth movement akin to Toronto two seasons ago. 

How do y'all propose to fix this issue? Which free agents and prospects do you like?

 

*I did this by removing their top 6 scoring forwards and counting the NHL goals and points scored by every other forward in their organization this season. Not the perfect way to do this because of line combinations, but it works. 

 

Also, had Buffalo not had their youth movement with Casey/Nylander/EROD going nuts the last few games, they were poised to be by-far the worst. Thank god for our savior, Lord Casey.

[dudacek]

Everyone has given up on them, but my hope remains in the kids long-term.

I’m not expecting Bailey Baptiste Nylander Smith, Pu, Asplund Olafsson Fasching O’Reagan etc to tear it up next year, or even three years from now, but they are improving our depth.

 

I’m betting one of them ends up with Jack or Ryan and puts up 15 and the second or third best of them next year to total considerably more than the 6 we got from Nolan and Josefson combined.

And I expect Wilson and Larson (or their replacements) to combine for more than 10 goals next year, and Rodrigues and Mittlestadt to combine for considerably more than 8.

 

Also, better offensive support from the defence is going to result in better numbers across the board.

Edited May 31, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

It starts with Mittelstadt.

[WildCard]

Yet another chart that continues to make me wonder why Marc Bergevin has a job

[LGR4GM]

Yet another chart that continues to make me wonder why Marc Bergevin has a job

People are dumb. That's the only reason to keep him. He's awful.

[LTS]

We touched on the lack of secondary scoring during the season last year.

 

The real question is, who are the top 6 and bottom 6 on the roster?

 

Clear top 6 - Eichel, ROR, Reinhart

 

Clear Middle 6 - Okposo, Rodrigues, MIttlestadt, Baptiste

 

Clear Bottom 6 - Bailey, Girgensons, Larsson, Pominville, Wilson

 

Frankly, what I think will happen is that your top player will see playing time with players who are not your traditional top 6 players.

 

If you bring up the BC line...  Eichel - Rodrigues - O'Regan are you effectively making 2 other players top 6 even though normally they are not?

 

ROR - Reinhart - Wilson also seemed to work really well, this bringing up a bottom level guy.

 

They'll need to find a good UFA pick up for the top 6 if they are interested in the faster turnaround (JvR?)  otherwise they will have to hope that a few forwards make the jump.  Baptiste seems like he might be able to get into the top 6 as a complimentary player.  Nylander is the X factor.  If he can slot into a top 6 line and be productive it'll be a huge boost for the Sabres.  Of course, he might not be around either.

 

If they were targeting second level scoring only in the UFA market I would look at:

 

James van Riemsdyk - currently $4.2M

Paul Stastny - $7M

James Neal - $5M 

David Perron - $3.7M

Riley Nash - $900k  <---- I would target him, having played good minutes with top forwards in Boston

Michael Grabner - $1.6M

Blake Comeau - $2.4M

 

I don't see any of those players being top 6 players in their next deals.  If they are, the team they are going to is going to have problems.

[7+6=13]

With all due respect for taking the time to create this chart - we would have to know how the "top six, bottom six" were chosen.  Was it top 6/bottom 6 in team scoring or top 6/bottom 6 pairing?  For example for much of the year Pominville was not in the top 6 but he landed 6th in points and 4th in scoring.  

 

Depending on where he was slotted on the chart will determine which number he effected.  If he was slotted in our top 6 - our top 6 was too high and it lowered our bottom 6 totals.

 

Even still, the point is taken.  There's no doubt our wingers have to produce much more than they have.  

Edited May 31, 2018 by 7+6=13

[Randall Flagg]

With all due respect for taking the time to create this chart - we would have to know how the "top six, bottom six" were chosen.  Was it top 6/bottom 6 in team scoring or top 6/bottom 6 pairing?  For example for much of the year Pominville was not in the top 6 but he landed 6th in points and 4th in scoring.  

 

Depending on where he was slotted on the chart will determine which number he effected.  If he was slotted in our top 6 - our top 6 was too high and it lowered our bottom 6 totals.

 

Even still, the point is taken.  There's no doubt our wingers have to produce much more than they have.  

I mentioned that line combinations mess things up, but that affect happens to every team. I just took the top six scoring forwards on each team, and added up every other player's goal and point totals. Pominville is a good example for the problem that causes, he spent about 50 games in the top 6 and 32 outside. Or a guy like Tom Wilson, who was counted as depth because of point totals (I think) but plays with Ovechkin. I think on balance it'll average out so that those guys don't perform much above or below "replacement level" within the organizational forward framework. And by and large, the guys whose numbers comprise the bulk of the points shown are bona-fide, inarguable depth players. 

 

Eichel and ROR were both really close to winning their matchups shot-wise, and probably would have won them goal-wise with league average goaltending. The lines behind them made thousands of us Sabres fans uninterested in tuning into games. Hopefully that can change this year. 

[dudacek]

Knights have three extra seconds in the next three drafts. They have also traded away this year’s first.

Sabres have one extra first in the next three drafts. They are picking Rasmus Dahlin with this year’s first

Knights list of promising players under 25

Tuch, Theodore, Brannstrom, Glass, Suzuki, Hague

Sabres list of promising players under 25

Eichel, Mittelstadt, Reinhart, Ristolainen, Nylander Asplund Guhle Ullmark

 

The difference is that Vegas is currently in the Cup final. There is no pressure to rush any of their prospects into the NHL, they have the luxury of letting them bake and develop for however long they wish, while Buffalo really really really needs some of their prospects to make the jump this year and be significant contributors.

Pulled this over from the finals thread because it better belongs here.

 

It’s kind of a chicken-egg question, but it boils down to virtually all of the Knights lineup being loaded with middle-class young veterans age 25-30 and the Sabres having pretty much only Scandella in that category.

 

Fortunately I don’t think our prospects will be rushed.

Casey is the only one I worry at all about. Dahlin will be here it because he’s Dahlin.

Botterill recognized the issue and did let Nelson and Baptiste and Bailey and Guhle and Ullmark bake and develop last year.

Some of those guys may do the same this year, along with Asplund and Pu and Smith and Olafsson and O’Regan and Nylander

 

I think the forum has really nailed down the tank effect for what it was: boiling the Sabres to the level of a traditional pre-Vegas expansion team. That’s why we have the holes we do.

Edited May 31, 2018 by dudacek