rakish Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Reinhart has been paired with Eichel and Kane for 41.9% of his 5 on 5. He has spent 22.2% with O'Reilly and Pouliot. That's the top 3 point getters that Reinhart has been paired with the majority of his 5 on 5 TOI. There should be a little more "good". http://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_profiler.php?sent=go&players=3993&games=2017-2018:R Huh.... my charts aren't close to that. I got Eichel and Kane for 20% as a trio, 33% either Eichel or Kane, O'Reilly and Pouliot maybe 12% together, 33% either O'Reilly and Pouliot. Looking at it more closely, you data is bad. There is no way that Reinhart has been on only 6 line combinations, but those 6, according to frozenpool, account for 100% of Reinharts 5-5 play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted December 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Huh.... my charts aren't close to that. I got Eichel and Kane for 20% as a trio, 33% either Eichel or Kane, O'Reilly and Pouliot maybe 12% together, 33% either O'Reilly and Pouliot. Looking at it more closely, you data is bad. There is no way that Reinhart has been on only 6 line combinations, but those 6, according to frozenpool, account for 100% of Reinharts 5-5 play. Yeah I'm not sure about that link's data. Seems like he's been all over the place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 (edited) This shows much better what you are trying to say. This is the Power Play Time of forwards they play with 5-5, including themselves, so it's the opposite of the list I've been posting in the other thread. 9 KANE9.20 15 EICHEL8.91 90 O'REILLY7.92 29 POMINVILLE7.76 21 OKPOSO7.74 55 RISTOLAINEN7.17 6 SCANDELLA7.06 23 REINHART7.02 67 POULIOT6.51 31 JOHNSON6.33 47 BOGOSIAN6.31 41 FALK6.31 40 Lehner6.3 15 TENNYSON6.29 27 FEDUN6.22 71 RODRIGUES6.16 82 BEAULIEU6.07 19 MCCABE5.96 93 ANTIPIN5.7 24 GORGES5.47 95 BAILEY5.36 24 FASCHING5.30 38 REDMOND4.37 28 GIRGENSONS4.26 26 MOULSON4.15 20 WILSON3.12 13 BAPTISTE2.97 25 GRIFFITH2.87 22 LARSSON2.63 10 JOSEFSON2.60 17 NOLAN2.35 51 CRISCUOLO1.74 Edited December 21, 2017 by utsvävande Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted December 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 I still can't buy the pp stat rakish, no offense. Matt Moulson played significant PP minutes for us last year, and was one of our worst players Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3putt Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Ahh Pouliot.. 4th overall pick in 2005. Spent 3 years in the AHL. Career high 36 points in a season, once with the Rangers and once with the Oilers. Currently playing on 7th NHL team in 12 seasons. Sam Reinhart, spent 0 seasons in the AHL, had 42 points in his first year and 47 points in his second year for a team that has been one of the all time worst scoring franchises in NHL history. This year? Pouliot has 11 points and Reinhart has 11 points. Reinhart has played with lower overall talent and STILL has as many points as Pouliot. I like Pouliot, but he's a guy who has had trouble staying on ANY roster and has NEVER reached the point totals Reinhart has already. +9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 'This is the Power Play Time of forwards they play with 5-5, including themselves' ... What the heck does this mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 I still can't buy the pp stat rakish, no offense. Matt Moulson played significant PP minutes for us last year, and was one of our worst players So what's a better metric? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted December 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 So what's a better metric? I don't know, haven't sat down and thought about it. Off the top of my head, the best offensive player on the opposing team is usually the guy that puts up the best 5v5 points. Or, the guys that get the most time on the ice when the team pulls the goalie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 It's so much more fun to just overreact. I remember when my kid struggled with a few math assignments earlier this year and his grade dropped into the low 80's. I immediately was looking to sell him to some slave trader and get my money back as I certainly wasn't going to waste it on some failure child who could not keep his math grades up. I think he was too entitled and just expected people to do his math problems for him. Interesting. Were you debating on selling him to a Chinese sweat shop or were you going to sell him off to be a child soldier in Uganda? Both solid options and good scare tactics to get kids to eat their vegetables as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 5x5 points has too much noise. Do you value Baptiste (2.04 points per 60) higher than Eichel (2.0 points per 60). Or do you value total points? Which means O'Reilly is considered an offensive player because he gets so many minutes. Ice time during goalie pulls is too binary. The great thing about power play time is that there's a spread. Last season the highest non-goaltender was Okposo at 3.9 minutes a game, Larsson was 19th at .42 minutes per game. Of course there's anomalies, Moulson got too much power play time, Kane not enough. Every stat has a simplicity/detail aspect where information is lost due to making it simple. Go back to the bad stat site where they list the most common linemates. If it was right, it gives you the information you want to know, if you know who Eichel and Kane are, so it's presupposing a whole lot of information which would make it useless unless you had a pretty good understanding of that team. I think what the on-ice opposition power play time stat brings out is a reality that is overlooked. For instance, people use minutes as the metric to measure defenseman, but I think it's fairly useless. For me, Erik Karlsson is Ottawa's 4th defenseman, because Ceci, Phaneuf, and Oduya play against the better offensive players, while the rest of this board wants to send 3 pieces to Ottawa to sign him long term and big money at age 27. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted December 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 I think what the on-ice opposition power play time stat brings out is a reality that is overlooked. For instance, people use minutes as the metric to measure defenseman, but I think it's fairly useless. For me, Erik Karlsson is Ottawa's 4th defenseman, because Ceci, Phaneuf, and Oduya play against the better offensive players, while the rest of this board wants to send 3 pieces to Ottawa to sign him long term and big money at age 27. I'd be interested in hearing a detailed explanation on this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 These are Ottawa's 17 home games: Opponent PP forward 67 HARPUR8.72 10 PYATT7.12 44 PAGEAU7.04 5 CECI7.02 2 PHANEUF6.66 29 ODUYA6.39 15 SMITH6.32 68 HOFFMAN6.24 9 RYAN6.08 41 ANDERSON6.06 95 DUCHENE6.06 61 STONE6.06 19 BRASSARD5.80 7 TURRIS5.77 17 THOMPSON5.76 65 KARLSSON5.67 18 DZINGEL5.66 1 dont know5.62 49 DIDOMENICO5.60 33 CLAESSON5.32 89 MCCORMICK5.27 78 CHLAPIK5.07 74 BOROWIECKI5.06 14 BURROWS4.95 53 RODEWALD4.93 6 WIDEMAN3.98 59 FORMENTON3.90 21 BROWN3.74 13 PAUL3.66 40 DUMONT3.47 72 CHABOT1.57 These are his teammates in those 17 home games: 95 DUCHENE11.26 9 RYAN11.17 61 STONE10.82 19 BRASSARD10.47 68 HOFFMAN8.81 7 TURRIS8.76 18 DZINGEL8.55 65 KARLSSON8.08 74 BOROWIECKI7.78 33 CLAESSON7.46 1 dont know7.28 41 ANDERSON7.20 21 BROWN7.19 2 PHANEUF7.12 29 ODUYA7.02 6 WIDEMAN6.91 15 SMITH6.78 5 CECI6.62 14 BURROWS5.93 72 CHABOT5.70 67 HARPUR5.66 49 DIDOMENICO5.29 44 PAGEAU3.45 10 PYATT3.33 59 FORMENTON3.19 53 RODEWALD2.88 17 THOMPSON2.88 40 DUMONT2.39 89 MCCORMICK2.21 13 PAUL1.38 78 CHLAPIK1.23 Admittedly, Karlsson (at home) sees the best defensemen (at least those with the most PK time). Karlsson in 6th on the team, Phaneuf is in 7th. So looking at the two above lists, Karlsson (at home) plays with the best offensive players, but they hide him from the opponents best offensive players. He get the best usage possible. The html reports that I'm taking the data from are terrible for accuracy. When you add up the 10 seconds on this play, and the 7 seconds on this play, goaltenders don't play near 60 minutes. So I totally agree with you that the metric I use is less accurate than it ought to be, but I do what I can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LTS Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Interesting. Were you debating on selling him to a Chinese sweat shop or were you going to sell him off to be a child soldier in Uganda? Both solid options and good scare tactics to get kids to eat their vegetables as well. Well, I hadn't really ruled out anyone. My son doesn't really have a NMC so I could just take the right deal if it comes along. Honestly, no one in my house is protected except for me. My wife has more leverage due to the buyout option not being financially attractive. I think the uncertainty of where he might end up is what really did the trick. With math scores like that it's hard to think that anyone who is building a winner would want him though. So he realized he either improved and stuck around on my team or he was getting moved to a place that didn't worry about his math acumen as much. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted December 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Admittedly, Karlsson (at home) sees the best defensemen (at least those with the most PK time). Karlsson in 6th on the team, Phaneuf is in 7th. So looking at the two above lists, Karlsson (at home) plays with the best offensive players, but they hide him from the opponents best offensive players. He get the best usage possible. The html reports that I'm taking the data from are terrible for accuracy. When you add up the 10 seconds on this play, and the 7 seconds on this play, goaltenders don't play near 60 minutes. So I totally agree with you that the metric I use is less accurate than it ought to be, but I do what I can. So how does this metric hold up with people we know for a fact are the best on their team? (i.e. Crosby, McDavid, Patrick Kane, etc) Not trying to scrutinize, just very curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 These are the road games for Edmonton, it the opponent defensemen with the most PK minutes 97 MCDAVID5.18 56 YAMAMOTO5.12 19 MAROON4.63 29 DRAISAITL4.43 27 LUCIC4.40 6 LARSSON4.38 77 KLEFBOM4.31 83 BENNING4.17 98 PULJUJARVI4.16 33 TALBOT4.09 91 CAGGIULA4.09 25 NURSE4.01 1 dont know3.97 13 CAMMALLERI3.9 24 RUSSELL3.86 62 GRYBA3.74 81 AUVITU3.73 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS3.71 16 KHAIRA3.66 18 STROME3.62 55 LETESTU3.42 88 DAVIDSON3.39 26 PAKARINEN3.38 24 MALONE3.37 44 KASSIAN3.36 36 JOKINEN3.34 58 SLEPYSHEV2.86 12 WALKER2.40 As far as forwards, some(but not a lot of) teams will use a player like Larsson against McDavid, so on the road, McDavid sees the 3rd most offensive forward, behind Yam... and Lucic. Chicago on the road, these are the opponent defenseman minutes on the pk 8 SCHMALTZ5.00 88 KANE4.97 19 TOEWS4.77 34 dont know4.76 20 SAAD4.75 11 FRANSON4.70 2 KEITH4.61 14 PANIK4.60 15 ANISIMOV4.5644 RUTTA4.3550 CRAWFORD4.276 KEMPNY4.267 SEABROOK4.2331 dont know4.1642 FORSLING4.1240 HAYDEN4.0338 HARTMAN3.9682 OESTERLE3.8412 DEBRINCAT3.815 MURPHY3.8010 SHARP3.7057 WINGELS3.6617 BOUMA3.3448 HINOSTROZA2.7867 KERO2.48 Road games for Chicago, the other coach seems more incline to their offensive players against players other than Kane or Toews. 48 HINOSTROZA6.98 44 RUTTA6.87 20 SAAD6.82 14 PANIK6.79 88 KANE6.73 19 TOEWS6.63 42 FORSLING6.45 67 KERO6.3250 CRAWFORD6.318 SCHMALTZ6.257 SEABROOK6.142 KEITH6.126 KEMPNY6.0915 ANISIMOV5.8040 HAYDEN5.6538 HARTMAN5.6031 dont know5.5957 WINGELS5.5317 BOUMA5.4111 FRANSON5.3012 DEBRINCAT5.2210 SHARP5.225 MURPHY5.2082 OESTERLE4.8534 dont know4.61 Pittsburgh on the road, opponents defensemen PK minutes 5 TROTMAN4.71 87 CROSBY4.69 35 JARRY4.49 72 HORNQVIST4.4 44 SCHULTZ4.38 23 WILSON4.37 71 MALKIN4.3243 SHEARY4.2758 LETANG4.2559 GUENTZEL4.208 DUMOULIN4.1981 KESSEL4.131 DESMITH4.1217 RUST4.0230 MURRAY3.963 MAATTA3.9562 HAGELIN3.8928 COLE3.8831 dont know3.7822 HUNWICK3.762 RUHWEDEL3.7349 SIMON3.7334 KUHNHACKL3.7033 MCKEGG3.5518 CORRADO3.4875 REAVES3.3837 ROWNEY3.3815 SHEAHAN3.2845 ARCHIBALD2.95 Pittsburgh on the road, opponent forward pp minutes 31 dont know7.28 87 CROSBY7.17 8 DUMOULIN7.02 58 LETANG7.01 43 SHEARY6.76 59 GUENTZEL6.69 72 HORNQVIST6.6222 HUNWICK6.5717 RUST6.4762 HAGELIN6.384 SCHULTZ6.3381 KESSEL6.3230 MURRAY6.2971 MALKIN6.2637 ROWNEY6.2049 SIMON6.181 DESMITH6.1145 ARCHIBALD5.9915 SHEAHAN5.9823 WILSON5.932 RUHWEDEL5.923 MAATTA5.8635 JARRY5.8228 COLE5.8234 KUHNHACKL5.3733 MCKEGG5.2575 REAVES4.7118 CORRADO4.015 TROTMAN3.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kishoph Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Huh.... my charts aren't close to that. I got Eichel and Kane for 20% as a trio, 33% either Eichel or Kane, O'Reilly and Pouliot maybe 12% together, 33% either O'Reilly and Pouliot. Looking at it more closely, you data is bad. There is no way that Reinhart has been on only 6 line combinations, but those 6, according to frozenpool, account for 100% of Reinharts 5-5 play. Just going by what the site is reporting. I tried to look for another source this morning, but had no luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm really not sure whether we're over-reacting with Reinhart. By that I really truly mean, I'm not sure. As in, maybe some (including me) are over-reacting, and, then again, maybe we're not. I know we keep hearing about the pair of 40+ point seasons. That's all well and good. And it gives some solace and hope. I do wonder a bit about what was really under the hood during those times. How many offensive zone starts. 5v5 points compared to power play points. All that #fancystat sort of stuff. Ya, same. I know there was a long stretch last season where he basically stopped producing at Even Strength, where the murmurs started to begin. Im trying to find more specifics about the time period. I did find this so far: https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/932343834897502208 I'll have to keep looking. I don't really have any interest in getting into the overreacting/underreacting debate. Pretty much any take right now is at least understandable. He's been completely terrible for half a season. People can interpret that as they wish, and I won't say they are jumping to conclusions, particularly in light of his ES decline last season. He's been trending downward now for what, a calendar year? But he may turn it around. I get that side as well. He's got a huge uphill climb, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvelo Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 I for one have faith in Sam. Look at the rotating management teams and systems already tried for the last few years. It's enough to confuse any youngster. If Buffalo gets stable management, I think Sam will eventually thrive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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