Archie Lee

I think it is possible that $ was a factor and that Adams was not positioned to or comfortable with giving Mitts a $6 millionish AAV. He could not possibly sell trading Mitts for futures, so he acquired the best “name-asset” he could.

My view on our pairings hasn’t changed. With what we have, I think the best pairings are: Dahlin/Power Samuelsson/Jokiharju Byram/Clifton I’m not at all hung up on which is the 2nd or 3rd pair.

I’m not great at finding a comparable, but Byram reminds me of Montour when we got him. Byram is, I think, a better player, but like Montour, I’m not sure the fit is right. In FLA the last two seasons, Montour’s primary partners were Staal and Mikkola, a couple of veteran stay at home types who allowed Montour to selectively roam. We really don’t have such a player to pair with Byram. The negative-side of me thinks this eventually ends with Byram being traded for cents on the dollar and then reaching his prime with a team that pairs him with someone who better matches his skillset and turns him loose (as FLA did with Montour). And you know the rest…

Nothing through the first 10 games has changed my view that we are too young and inexperienced and that too many things need to happen that have not consistently happened before, for there to be a realistic expectation that we will make the playoffs. Therefore, my prediction is a finish somewhere between where we finished the last two years (85-90 points, 10-11th in the conference). As with current election polling, I acknowledge that this could be wrong in either direction by 4-5 points and 2-3 positions in the standings. The Panther GDT includes, understandably, a lament about the loss of Reinhart and about what he could mean to our team. Has there ever been a team that in the span of 6 seasons traded 4 star players (I'll call Mitts a star for this purpose), average age 25 (O'Reilly the oldest at 27), for younger or future assets (Tuch being the exception)? Regardless of whether it has been done before, we did it. But we are now the team that needs to acquire a top veteran player or two. This is why, when we have so many young talented players and prospects, we should not be afraid to move some of them for experienced talent. If we cling to our young players and prospects while they sort themselves out, because we are afraid we will trade the kid who breaks out, we risk what is happening this year, with Quinn, Benson, and Kulich combining for 3 points in 22 games. We have positioned ourselves where we won't trade the kids when they are meeting expectations because we need and love them, and we can't trade the kids who are struggling because their value is low. Teams like St. Louis (O'Reilly), Vegas (Eichel), Florida (Reinhart), and Colorado (Mittelstadt), are not afraid to give up meaningful young or future assets to address weaknesses that prevent them from reaching their goals. We seem paralyzed in fear of a mistake.

All of this is reasoned, but doesn’t mean he would not benefit from playing with better linemates. Per MoneyPuck, Cozens, Quinn, Kulich have the worst Corsi/Fenwick %’s on the team. That’s partly on Cozens to be sure (not just blaming his linemates). But, Cozens has basically not played 5v5 without one of Quinn or Kulich; per Dobber Frozen Tools, more than 85% of his even strength shifts have been with one of Quinn or Kulich. Better linemates would not necessarily get Cozens out of his shooting slump. Fans would be more tolerant of the lack of offensive production though, if he was on an effective line that was winning the possession and expected goal battles.

I’m not worried about Dahlin. As he recovers from his pre-season injury, I think he has looked more and more like his old-self. The occasional defensive miscue and undisciplined penalty is part of the package with Dahlin. If and when we become a better, more experienced and veteran team, those incidents will diminish as Dahlin better grasps he doesn’t have to do it all himself. And when they do occur they will hurt us less as we will be better able to recover and respond

You can’t let Barkov walk down Main Street like that. Bob was better than UPL, but Fla played better defensively and was more disciplined.

How much time did he spend in the Yukon this past offseason? In Europe? Training?

Playing at a 100 pt pace after today. We are getting legit 1st line production from Thompson, Tuch, Peterka.

Nice job by Quinn to create some havoc at the crease.

McLeod, Greenway, Zucker, so far, would fit in with the original group of Vegas misfits. I agree that they have become the 2nd line for now. It's early, but, as modest as their current point totals are, we likely shouldn't count on their overall production holding. On a pts per game basis, McLeod and Greenway are on pace to have career years and Zucker to have his best year since 2017-18. If they end up being our 2nd line for the season, we may eventually have a middle-six problem. I think we are stuck with being patient. My hot-take though, going back to my off-season view, is that 2 of Kulich, Benson and Quinn could (should?) have been moved in the offseason in a package for a legit veteran top-six winger. It would have been a risky thing to do for sure, but had we done so we would still have one of them and all of our Rochester forward prospects and others to keep an eye on like Poltapov, Marjala, Richard, Miedema and Zeimer (and a veteran top-six winger). As is, the field is so crowded that I think the collective value of our under age 24 players is tanking.

I'm not suggesting we change existing lines as they're going well. A change in the short-term might not be realistic. If we don't send Kulich down we will have 3 young wingers who are not currently producing much offensively who will nonetheless need playing time. It will do no good to have any of the 3 not playing for extended periods. My point is really that Cozens deserves some slack here. Are you saying you are certain he would be no better playing with Peterka/Tuch or Greenway/Zucker? How good would Thompson or McLeod be playing with 2 of Benson/Kulich/Quinn (not one of them, two of them)? Better than Cozens? Maybe. As good as they have been with their current linemates? Not a chance. Unfortunately, the best opportunity to make a trade was in the summer and that time has now past. There are options though. I think Benson fits in well with Thompson and Tuch. I hate to take Peterka from that line, but perhaps he could rekindle something with Quinn/Cozens. Quinn is supposed to be an effective two way player who plays the game "the right way". Perhaps if he was placed with McLeod and either Zucker or Greenway or with Krebs and either Malenstyn or Lafferty, he would benefit from having some pressure to produce removed from his game and he would do well for now in a more straight ahead defensive focused role. This could allow for a Peterka/Cozens/Zucker line, as an example. With Aube-Kubel coming back, Krebs could play with Cozens. Alternatively, we keep rolling Cozens out with youngsters (maybe even sit Cozens here and there for Krebs) and hope they get it together.

I have no issue with switching the 2nd/3rd line designations of the Cozens and McLeod lines. Calling Cozens the 3rd line centre doesn't exactly solve the "conundrum" though. We could always try something we haven't tried before and give him a couple of veteran wingers to work with for an extended period. Failing that, we should probably just be patient with Cozens and his linemates.

Yes. 1000 x yes. Except, there are not enough roster spots and roles to give all of our young players these realistic opportunities for success. The team we played yesterday is the model. Stankoven stays in junior two years after his draft, then a 1/2 year in the AHL, then a promotion to the NHL, now playing with Hintz and Robertson and thriving. We promote our young players sooner and ask them to thrive and develop while playing with other players equally young and inexperienced (in Cozens case we have consistently asked him to develop and thrive while playing with players younger and less experienced than he).

It’s not denigrating Quinn, Benson and Kulich to say that Cozens would benefit from better linemates. Every player benefits from better linemates. Three wingers on our team who would benefit from better linemates, including a better centre? Quinn, Benson and Kulich. I’m not crapping on Cozens’s linemates. They are in the same situation he is. They are collectively not ready to be a 2nd line on an NHL team with playoff aspirations. It is self-evident that Cozens would have a better opportunity to be consistently successful playing on a stable line with two seasoned and talented veteran players. Name another 23 year old centre on an NHL team with playoff aspirations, who has been assigned 2nd line expectations and who has been given a rotation of 3 wingers, averaged age 20, to play with? Forgive me, I’m sure your intentions are not bad, but this post is grotesque.

Cozens needs better line-mates also. Will be interesting to see what happens when Aube-Kubel is back. Kulich, Quinn, and Benson can’t all play. If we are icing the best line-up, probably two can’t play. I assume Kulich goes back to Rochester. Would like to see Krebs with Cozens. Krebs can help with D-zone face-offs and maybe they develop some chemistry.

I’m not entirely defending Cozens, but, he is playing with a winger who is struggling more than he is and with a 20 yr old rookie. We were protecting a lead through the 2nd half of the game. McLeod is playing well and is playing with two defensively responsible vets. So, not at all surprising that with us leading a close game, McLeod would get more 5v5 time.

We don’t know how badly Dahlin is hurt (Ruff says he is not 100%; we do know he was injured first day in camp and that the observable mechanics of the injury suggested a muscle pull type of injury and we know those can linger). We don’t know what impact the changes to the system and changed expectations, may be having. Ruff hinted in the same interview that Dahlin may be starting to understand that his opportunities (offensively, I took it) may present differently in this system than in year’s past. Dahlin can get down on himself when things don’t go well. It is far more likely to me, as with Cozens and Quinn, that he is frustrated with his own performance and is, as they say, “pressing too much”, than it is that he is pouting or annoyed by a system change or by increased demands. Also, he is likely not 100% health wise. Of course, there could also be factors that we don’t know about.

Samuelsson may be the most disappointing player on the team to me. I remember an Appert interview from the time when Samuelsson was first promoted to the NHL. Appert described Samuelsson as “miserable to play against”. The impression Appert gave was of a player who takes every opportunity to hit, stick, cross-check an opponent; the sort of big D man who plays to the edge of the rules and makes the opposition reluctant to go to certain areas of the ice. I don’t think I have ever seen that sort of play from him. Further, that description Appert gave seems polar opposite of Samuelsson’s huggable-bear personality. For those who saw him in Rochester a lot, has something changed on that side of his game? Re: Quinn - and Cozens and Benson and the PP - the collective lack of production is perhaps a silver lining. They will not combine for 0 goals this year. The positive regression is coming. It was never the case that we needed everyone to rebound or progress. If the 1st and 3rd lines continue to play well, we might get by with Quinn, Cozens, Benson and the PP just eventually getting to last year levels of actual goal production.

That was before last night. I don’t see a reason to break the rotation now. At some point you need to be willing to give the majority of starts to the goalie playing better, but I don’t think one game in Chicago should redefine the start that UPL has had. We are better if both goalies are playing well, so I hope they stick with the rotation for at least 3-5 more games (2-3 more Levi starts).

Reinhart is an interesting case, as I see us now doing to current players what we did to him. Expectations are not being met and scapegoats are needed. Reinhart did not become the elite player he is now until he reached age 26-27-28, after he left Buffalo. The average age at the start of last season of the core 9 players (top 5 F, top 3 D, starting goalie) for Florida and Edmonton was right around 28. Our comparable group this year is under 24. Go back 4-5 years and the core players for those cup contending teams were not collectively helping those franchises wet their playoff noodles. Some were there already, but most were scattered around other teams trying to make their way as pros. I recognize that we are not trying to contend for the cup this year. I’m ok with this being a make or break year for Adams (though, if that is the case, I take no comfort due to who will be doing the next hire and the restraints that may be placed on any replacement). It is absurd to me though that this is considered a make or break year for this core group of players. Levi is 22. The veteran goalie, UPL, is 25. Clifton is 29. After him our oldest D in the top 6 is Joker at 25. The average age of our 2nd line is 21 (they combined for 38 goals last year); the fill-in is 20. Could it all come together and we make some sort of thrilling, cardiac-kids level run to the playoffs? Sure. I’m not one to draw a line in the sand (call me cautious, a fence-sitter, rational, or wishy-washy, I’m not offended by any label). But to expect playoffs from this group of players (not management), is not just unrealistic, it’s not fair. Who will be the next Reinhart?

Respectfully to all, haven’t we seen enough players who we thought were not good enough to win with, go on to be plenty good enough to play a role of some kind on a winning team, to understand that it’s a rare player who is either: - so good that he can perform at a consistently elite level even for the Sabres; or - so bad on the Sabres that he can’t find at least a properly remunerated niche role on another team? This debate doesn’t need to boil down to the extremes of “we need Olofsson” or “Olofsson sucks”. The reality is that we don’t need Olofsson because other players can do variations of what he does. Also, he isn’t terrible, he definitely has some NHL-level skills, and he wasn’t the reason we missed the playoffs in his time as a Sabre. This applies to Skinner and Mitts and Girgs and it applies to pretty much every player on our roster. They all can play a role on a playoff team. We are missing pieces though that allow them to collectively be a playoff team here.

Speaking only for myself, the blame lies with an organization that thinks/thought the 3 of them together as a line (the 2nd line, no less) was a good idea. If they stay together they will have better games to be sure, just like Cozens, Peterka and Quinn from 2 years ago; but also just like that line from two years ago, there will be bad stretches where they will not be good enough for a coach to rely upon them in tough moments. Adams made his own bed here though*. By promoting players too soon and putting them in situations where they have struggled to be successful, he has simultaneously put a losing product on the ice and depreciated the trade-value of some of these young assets who should already have been moved to make the team better *For clarity, I also think Adams has his hands tied by Pegula’s EEE and is not in a position to spend what is ultimately needed.

This might actually be a bit of a silver-lining. Dahlin, Cozens, and UPL have had bad to terrible starts. It is not likely that Dahlin ends the year with 26 points, Cozens with 14, UPL with a sub .880 save %. Along with Quinn and Benson, they will almost certainly start to play better (if not necessarily to levels hoped). I’m looking for something to hold onto, and “it can only get better from here” is all I’ve got.

I would not call that the consensus. Cozens has been bad but has looked engaged. Quinn has been invisible and avoiding contact.