Archie Lee

I’m not letting Cozens 100% off the hook. No forward on the team, though, has more expected of him. Thompson is not expected to be a two-way offensive and defensive player. Until recent, nobody thought Thompson a leader. From the near beginning of Cozens’s time in Buffalo, the expectation and projection was near elite 2-way centre and future captain…oh, and he’s going to do that with 2 guys on the wing who are younger and less experienced than him (Quinn’s struggling, let’s put Kulich on that line!). He needs lowered expectations and some veteran help.

UPL? Cozens and Samuelsson have t lived up to their contracts for over a year. UPL has been below average for 3 games. A little early to draw a conclusion on UPL, I think.

What are you moving for that top 6 player? If Quinn or Benson aren’t part of the package, what are you doing with one of them? 4th line? Press box?

The US Thanksgiving thing is a myth. Sure, by that date there has been a sorting out of teams and the best and worst teams have positioned themselves where only epic collapses or Herculean comebacks will push them out or in (see Blues & Sabres in 18/19). But, the teams in the middle will fight to the end and there will typically be movement right up to the last few games. 45 wins gets a team in. Over the last 10 full 82 game seasons, no 45 win team has missed. 44 wins gets a team in about 70% of the time, 43 about 50%, and 42 about 30% (you need those loser points). Wins in October and November are no better or worse than wins in February and March. It was always unlikely that we were going to be a 50 win team this year. If we make it, we will likely do so in that 42-44 win range. If we are at the bottom of the conference a month from now, we are clearly in a lot of trouble and almost certainly will be out of it. If we are 10th to 13th and 4-5 points out, then there will still be lots of time to get back in it.

1-3-1 isn’t bad after an 0-3 start. Didn’t like how this one ended, obviously. But scoring 10 over two games is definitely a good sign. Going into the year I liked our projected line 1 and 4. They have been mostly good. I didn’t like lines 2 and 3. Line 3 has actually been very good. Line 2 (Cozens, Quinn, Benson) is a disaster; 1 assist and -12 between them. When they get that line either going or broken up, and UPL gets rolling (I’m not worried about UPL), I think we have a chance to be in it.

Agreed. The game needs to be played with passion. Joy or anger. Pick one.

I would be very surprised if a coach told a player to light up a teammate in practice after an accidental high-stick. I am a huge Dahlin fan. He would do himself and his team a big favour if the next time he throws a hit like that in a game and then gets challenged, if he would stick up for himself like he did here.

My guess is he is still nursing a bit of an LBI and with 11 forwards they just made it simpler and shortened the bench with the 2 goal lead. Also, right or wrong (wrong in Benson’s case), Ruff and a lot of NHL coaches likely have a bias against the 19 yr old, when protecting a lead in the 3rd. Edit: didn’t see that Ruff had commented before I posted.

You are correct; it is objectively too early to abandon all hope for this season. But, the organization did itself no favours when they chose to act in ways that are contradictory to the norms of how successful NHL teams operate. It is interesting that Adams opted to ice the youngest team in the NHL and leave millions of cap space unused (again), while also laying down the marker that this is a “no excuses” season. Adams and Pegula might be bad at their roles of GMering* and Ownering, but they aren’t dumb. They know that success would be more likely, if not guaranteed, if they spent more and were willing to move future assets for better established players. Some have interpreted this “no excuses” season as meaning Adams is on thin ice. I’m the opposite. I interpret the incongruence between the “no excuses” statement and the “ lots of excuses” actions, as an indication that Adams is not a man afraid of losing his job. *I’m not sure Adams is bad at his job. I still think the evidence supports that he does not have the authority to spend what needs to be spent. I’m also aware that at some point it makes no difference whether he is bad at his job or whether he is in a job where there is no chance of success.

To the bolded, I don't know what would happen as we have never seen Cozens get the opportunity to consistently play with one, let alone two, experienced players. Maybe he would not produce more goals, but the veteran players would score more by being more willing to get to the net and capitalize on rebounds. Maybe they would be be a more well-rounded line and the lack of offensive production would be offset by better defensive play. Maybe Cozens could relax a bit and put less pressure on himself knowing that he has linemates who can stick up for themselves and be leaders. Who knows what will happen when it has never been given a chance? How well do you think Thompson would do playing with Quinn and Kulich? This doesn't mean I am laying the blame for Cozens' issues at the feet of Quinn and Kulich. If those players are going to be in the line-up, they would benefit from playing with more experienced players. The problem is one of critical mass. There is no individual player on the Sabres who does not belong on an NHL team. The problem is that they are collectively not good enough; and a big part of that is they are the youngest team in the league, and their core 12 players are even younger still.

I'm not full-on defending Cozens. He is as much responsible as any player. While we are a mere 3 games in, it should be noted that not a single "core" player is producing offensively at a level needed. Cozens is not alone in this. I see no reason to scapegoat any individual players, when it is still this early and they have collectively been so bad. That said, this marks the 3rd year in a row where Cozens's has been given linemates less experienced and younger than he is. Last night, with Peterka out and Benson promoted to line one, Cozens was given...wait for it...the rookie. Nothing against Kulich. Pegula and Adams own this. All of it: - The poor team performance on the ice; - The emotional despondency and/or immaturity and/or frustration that their young core players are showing; and - The understandable fan vitriol that we are now seeing directed at a player like Cozens, who we know would be thriving on most other NHL teams.

There should have been a penalty called when Zucker was driven into the ice. I suspect his anger at the end was about the inconsistency. My opinion, separating the earlier non-call from the discussion, is that the penalty on Zucker was correct. You can generally get away with a reverse hit if you are actually about to be hit and you stand your ground; you can even lean back into the hit and get away with it. In this case, Clarke was not really about to body check Zucker. In my view, watching at regular speed, Clarke was applying pretty routine puck pressure. Interference or roughing, take your pick. It was the right call. Also, I actually think it was a lazy play by Zucker; rather than work to create leverage and move the puck towards the net or to a teammate, or start a cycle, he opted for the quicker route and launched himself into Clarke. There is a reason we don't see this type of play very often, that being because it is a penalty.

The surprising part of that stat to me is that on average less than 2 teams per season start 0-3. Would have thought that would be higher.

Agreed on Greenway. I thought he was, overall, our most consistent forward in Prague. On the depth issue, agreed that few, if any, teams have a spare 1st line winger. Our situation might be exacerbated though, by us not having two 1st line wingers to begin with, and further by our 2nd line wingers being perhaps better suited for a 3rd line. This remains to be seen though. From July 2nd, when we failed to add a legit veteran top 6 forward (less the Zucker signing, there was cap space and resources to add two such players), this season has hinged on certain players either rebounding or emerging. It could still happen.

I would argue that we are more missing a first line. Tuch, Thompson, and (arguably) Cozens, provided 1st line production in 22-23. None of our forwards have consistently produced at the level of a first line player, though. Big rebounds by Thompson and Tuch and/or a substantial step forward from a couple other players is needed for us to have a viable 1st line and top-six. Or, we need to transition to being a team that consistently wins low scoring games.

A mitigating factor in last year’s disaster of a season, was the play of UPL. It perhaps wasn’t fully anticipated or even predicted, but without his strong play things would have been much worse. Mitigating factors aren’t always accounted for prior to the disaster.

In the NHL, the way you protect players from dangerous hits like this is you: 1.) Blame the player who was hit for “not keeping their head up”; and 2.) Require the player who threw the hit, whether intentionally dirty or not, to exchange punches to the head with a player from the other team, who in turn will be shamed for not being aggressive enough in punching the offending player in the head and accepting punches to his own head. Problem solved.

Such a good observation. The team played joyless, disconnected, uncommitted hockey in Prague. 2022-23 was the year that the players rose above expectations and played to a level and outcome whose sum was greater than the assembled parts. From there they needed management to buy in and fully support the players ready to take the next step. Hasn’t happened and things may have stagnated.

Last year only 3 of 16 playoff teams started with two losses; encouragingly, Fla and Edm were two of them (LA was the other). None started with three straight losses. The season is long, but I think it can be generally said that teams that are playoff contenders don’t start the year 0-3 (and don’t spend $7 million below the cap, and don’t hire a head coach without an actual search, and don’t start the season with the youngest line-up in the league and a top 6 with an average age of only 23).

Bills are 2-0 against teams they were projected to be better than, and 1-2 against teams that they were, more or less, projected to be in the same range as. If they beat the Jets this week (no sure thing), then they pretty much have a clear path to a division title. Not telling anyone what to expect or demand or get frustrated about, but once I accepted McDermott is a good but not great coach, and that Allan is a great QB but not Mahones, then I have found it easy to enjoy watching them go 10-7 or 11-6 and hoping it all falls into place in the playoffs. This looks like another such year. We aren’t likely to win the Super Bowl, but there should be some fun and exciting ball along the way.

Tuch would be a top-6 player on every team in the NHL, I think. There are lots of contending teams that don’t have two wingers who are obviously first-line forwards. I would say our issue is that we don’t have any player who is an obvious first line forward and that 4 of our top 6 forwards are still in the stage of their career where they are not yet fully formed as NHL players (I know Cozens is going into year 5 and is approaching 300 games played; he is still 3-5 years from being at the top of his career arc as a complete player though).

I’m not drawing any conclusions from game one. But, the two most over-hyped changes from the off-season were the benefits of swapping one coach for another who was recently fired for similar reasons, and replacing four bottom six players (who all went to contenders) for four bottom six players that actual playoff teams found to be replaceable. Oh, and those were the only changes of the off-season.

Frustrating game in that the same issues that dogged us last year were present today. Slow and sloppy start, bad PP and no single player who was both willing and able to do something dynamic to alter the trajectory of the game. On the positive side, it was game one and, if you are so inclined, you can chalk it up to the Sabres starting tentative and nervous (reasons for which not fully understood), and the Devils being opportunistic, and that put us behind the eight-ball, and that’s hockey in a nutshell. What happened today is reason for concern, but not necessarily indicative of how the season will go. I won’t be at all surprised if the outcome tomorrow is reversed.

Cozens is strangely polarizing in my view. I thought he was our best forward today, and it wasn’t even close. He is closer to being our Hischier than Thompson is to being our Hughes.

Ha! Of course. Just wondering though if you think Peterka will lead the team with 33 goals or Thompson will score 40? Hopefully they both achieve those #’s.