Archie Lee

I couldn’t disagree more. Out 1st rd decisions have been the least of our issues. Of all our 1st rd picks, the only one firmly established as not being worthy of his place in the draft is Nylander. Every other pick you have listed has either proven worthy of their draft position or it is too early to draw a final conclusion. Remember when people didn’t think Reinhart had proven himself worthy of his draft position? The much bigger issue has been failing to surround these players with the depth, talent, experience, coaching, and culture that breeds success.

Hard to imagine Pegula wanting to pay Granato and Adams to not work, and possibly Ruff at some point. Though maybe Adams and Ruff could be reassigned. Is there someone in the organization (Guelli?) that Pegula would trust to run a GM search? It doesn’t seem like something Pegula is up for. You can’t “tear down” the youngest team in the league. But you can make changes through addition (trading picks, prospects, or one of our youngest roster forwards), or by trading one or two of our core players (signed long-term) in a “hockey trade”. At this point, any such move by Adams would be justifiably met by many fans with a “now you make a move?” or “too little too late” reaction. Not to mention, his best trade assets (other than the 1st rd pick) are depreciating before our eyes.

Same for me. Further, it ruins my interest in the NHL. If the Sabres were just in the hunt, I would follow the scores and watch some non-Sabre games to see how their competition looks. As is, I just can’t get myself to care. Still love hockey so will jump back in for the playoffs. But my interest in the NHL regular season for this year, is pretty much over.

I think we have officially reached the point in this season where no player who has a full NMC is waiving for the Sabres. There was talk this summer, I seem to recall, of Kadri being interested in coming back east. I thought then that he might consider the Sabres. That ship has sailed now though. Adams, or whoever is control behind the curtain, waited too long and the worst case scenario has developed.

My position is that Cozens, like almost every player who has ever played in the NHL, would benefit from playing with better linemates.

From Frozen Tools Line Combos, here are the top 7 wing-combinations (5v5) with Cozens at centre this season: 1.) Quinn/Benson 2.) Quinn/Kulich 3.) Krebs/Benson 4.) Peterka/Benson 5.) Peterka/Quinn 6.) Lafferty/Benson 7.) Kulich/Benson I'm not blaming these young players (or Lafferty!!) for Cozens' struggles. As I've said before, they all could use better linemates. But on the season we have paired Cozens almost exclusively with kids 23 and under. It's crazy. If we trade Cozens without getting back an established, legit, top-6 player, under 30 with term, then we have learned nothing.

Having a slender body type does not equal poor off-season work habits.

I think it is both. This is all largely attributable to there being no apparent synergy between what the GM is doing with player acquisitions and what the coaches are doing with those players. Botterill brings in puck-moving D and signs Skinner to a big contract and then hires a coach whose system has little use for such players. Adams trades Mittelstadt for another puck-moving D and then hires a coach whose defensive system is too complex for our remaining top 2 centres (for what it’s worth, I’m not sure Mittelstadt would be better in this system). These are just two examples.

Now we are drawing conclusions re: player fitness and off-season training based on somebody thinking Cozens looks skinny.

I agree. But we don't need to win 6-8 in a row. We need to play at 6-8 games over DeLuca .500 over the next 40-50 games. It's not going to happen because as an organization we are not prepared to do what it takes. And, you are correct, it would be a long-shot at this point even if we do decide to make the needed moves.

The Sabres points % under Granato was .494. Over the same period, Jersey’s under Ruff was .501. That’s 8 points, or 4 extra wins, over 276 games. This isn’t Ruff’s fault, but there is nothing from his recent history that supported he was a dramatic upgrade from Granato. If given a choice between 1.) this roster with Ruff, or 2) Granato with an improved and more veteran roster (that our owner should have insisted on and that our GM should have delivered this off-season), I would take option 2.

Watching Colorado address their needs is more than a little frustrating. Last year at the trade deadline they needed a #2 centre and targeted Mittelstadt. They paid a heavy price in Byram. They then immediately filled the hole by trading for Sean Walker. This year, their goaltending is bad and they go out and make two moves to change their goaltending. Did the moves get them a Cup last year? No. Will they win this year? Probably not. But they are not just waiting. The great flaw here is the idea that we need to make a big move for a star. Two Tucker, McLeod, Greenway-level forwards and a D-man in that category, would, in my view, have given us the depth to get through this last stretch without near catastrophic results. Such players are available if willing to pay the price. But Adams has constructed a lineup where he has more youngsters than he has spaces for and where he has supported them so poorly that they are almost entirely underachieving, thus driving down their trade value. And the cycle continues.

Granato was on Krueger’s staff. As an assistant to Krueger his role was to help install Krueger’s system and assist in seeing through Krueger’s vision of how the team would play. When Granato took over, he changed the approach from a defence first approach to a much more aggressive offensive system. There is no contradiction in that. The same could apply to the GM and assistant GM roles. Again, I am not saying that it would certainly be different if Karmanos took over as GM. But I am near certain there are people in the Sabres’ front office who are looking at this mess and considering what they would do differently. That’s normal. I’m not advocating for Karmanos. I just don’t think it is correct to assume that the entire front office is wholly in lockstep on their views of how to dig out of this mess. Heck, Karmanos might look at things and think the first thing he needs to do is make a trade for a veteran player to give people confidence that the days of sitting on our hands are over. That in itself would be a change.

I think the quoted portion of your post is wrong and likely very wrong. An assistant GM is not unlike an assistant coach. You are there to help the GM or head coach fulfill their vision. You don’t have to be a yes-man with no opinion to fill such roles, but you are there to serve the person who hired you. I’m not saying Karmanos would fair better, but there is no reason to assume he would not make different moves and decisions than Adams.

Sure. If the Sabres announced today that they fired Adams and hired Kekalainen or Hextall or Bergevin or Chiarelli, I wouldn't have a panic attack. I would not say any of them have a "winning track record" (and they all have some monumental failures), but I will concede they have all won more than Adams has. I'm not convinced that the names I've referenced would be eager to be the next GM of the Sabres.

I’m not sure. If they establish the run in the first half they perhaps better control the clock and keep the Rams’ offence off the field a bit. I’m not going to criticize the offence in any way, but I see his point. The D wasn’t able to match the star players on the Rams yesterday, and a more clock conscious offence was likely the only way. By the 2nd half, we had no choice but to throw the ball.

Ok, I figured I would have a look. NHL.com actually has a sortable listing of all GM's in NHL history. The following is a list of men who were NHL GM's in the past decade (not on an interim basis) who are not currently employed as a GM or Team President. Also included is their age, career winning %, and the last year they worked as a GM. Pierre Dorian, 52, .467, 23-24 Jarmo Kekalainen, 58, .528, 23-24 Ken Holland, 69, .622, 23-24 (retired I think) Ron Hextall, 60, .579, 23-24 Chuck Fletcher, 57, .535, 22-23 Jim Benning, 61, .487, 21-22 Marc Bergevin, 59, .557, 21-22 (Senior Advisor in L.A.) Doug Wilson, 67, .605, 21-22 (retired I think) Bob Murray, 70, .553, 21-22 (retired I think) John Chayka, 35, .475, 19-20 Ray Shero, 62, .586, 19-20 Dale Tallon, 74, .515, 19-20 (retired, I'm sure) Peter Chiarelli, 60, .579, 18-19 (VP STL) Garth Snow, 55, .512, 17-18 Dean Lombardi, 66, .496, 16-17 (VP PHI) Dave Nonis, 58, .539, 14-15 (VP CAL) No good options in my opinion. Kekalainen, Hextall, Fletcher, Bergevin, Shero, Chiarelli, and Nonis, would likely get some consideration around the league for vacant positions. All have significant warts, which is pretty much expected for any unemployed former GM (they would not be former GM's if things had gone well in their last opportunity). Perhaps interesting, 24 of the league's current GM's are in their first GM role. Only 8 were a GM with a prior team; of those, only Lamoriello and Waddell were GM's on two prior teams.

I’m not doubting you. I honestly can’t think of who these GM’s would be.

I would still like to see Cozens get a 5-10 game stretch playing with two veterans instead of two players younger than him. I would take 5 games of him just playing wing with McLeod and Greenway. I’m not blaming Quinn, Benson, Kulich, and Peterka for Cozens’s struggles, but it is sad to me that we have not found a way to give Cozens at least one legit veteran line mate to play with. I don’t hate trying Krebs with Thompson. As a prospect, Krebs was a pass-first, assist per game, type player. Obviously that has not materialized in the NHL, but he also has not been given an extended period of playing time with players like Tuch and Thompson. The theme of this post is that we continue to expect too much from too many young players.

The year you are missing in the “next summer” category, is this year. We would have Skinner at $9 million this year. Of course, it’s turned out to be a disaster either way. But I’m not sweating the extra $444k over the next 4 years or the $2,444,000 in 29-30. The buyout this year was fine. Like many things Sabre-related, it’s the execution that is lacking.

Skinner was owed $10 million of the remaining $22 million, this year. Unless I am misunderstanding, from a financial (actual $$$) perspective, the most advantageous year was this year.

Where the buyout makes sense is in actual $$$. I was happy with the buyout because I was suckered into thinking they would utilize the cap space in their self-proclaimed "must win year". In the end it is looking like the buyout was to save the owner money. Skinner was owed $22,000,000 over the last 3 years. The buyout cost is 66.667% spread out over double the length, which is $14,666,664 / 6 or $2,444,444 per year. The buyout cap hit varies from year to year and the average is higher, based on factors I won't pretend to understand (bonus structure), but Pegula is saving $7,333,336 (on Skinner's contract) with the buyout. I'm near certain that had we kept Skinner we would not have signed Zucker and that the 4th line upgrades probably don't happen. In fairness, the Skinner buyout was coming this year or next. The only real damage that is caused by having done it in 2024, comes in year 6 which is 2029-30. It is frustrating that they are not making use of the cap space that the buyout made available this season, but given how they operate, there really is no scenario where the buyout is causing damage.

To your last paragraph, I agree…but think it will be near impossible to attract a veteran GM with a winning track record. The most likely best case scenario is we get lucky with a rookie GM and head coach combo similar to how the Bills did. For a brief while it looked like we might have that with Adams / Granato. But they failed to strike when the irons were hot. After 22-23 there were reports from hockey insiders, and even Adams had said, that the word from agents was that the Sabres were starting to come off some no trade lists. Rather than capitalize on this, he squandered that off-season on Connor Clifton (no disrespect to CC), Eric Johnson, and internal growth. The moment was staring Adams in the face and he blinked.

I really like Adams. I have empathy as I’m sure he was having that kinda day on Friday and that if he could do it over he would strike the exact opposite tone (lord knows McDermott has said at least one thing even more regrettable). It’s going to be hard for Adams to survive this though. Pegula’s support will need to be nearly unbreakable.

Agreed. The drop off in his play is mystifying though. He has a long way to go, just to return to being the player he was, never-mind the play-driving, 40 goal, 80 point player some were projecting him as. Some fans asked for patience for Krebs, thinking he could still be a useful middle-six two way player. I still think that is where he is headed, here or elsewhere. Nobody that I recall, has recently been projecting that Krebs was a near to untouchable piece who was going to be the driving force of any chance the Sabres had of a turnaround. I still think Quinn can be a useful, middle-six player and that patience is warranted. His ceiling may still be higher. We likely should have moved him in a package for a top six player in the off-season. I don’t think he would be a meaningful add to such a trade currently. It’s a lesson I think that you have to be willing to trade a piece that hurts.