Archie Lee

I haven’t watched any Ranger games this year (I even missed their game against us). So, I haven’t seen Kreider play this year. His fancy stats aren’t good. He is on pace to score 38 goals, which is basically what he scored the last two years. Not sure if the “0” assists portends something ominous or is just an early season statistical fluke. I’m not sure if it would be good value to move Kulich for him. I think that right now in this moment, Kreider likely makes us a better team. We run into some trouble though if every prospect who gets to the NHL and shows some signs of being a legit NHL player, then becomes untouchable (not suggesting @JohnC, that you are saying Kulich is untouchable; I recognize you are just saying you wouldn’t trade him for Kreider or Jiricek). This was the board’s general position on Quinn 5 months ago. If we can’t move Quinn or Kulich or Benson for a veteran top-6 upgrade, then we are left with no room, not only for the prospects not yet in the NHL, but for any forward that we might acquire for those prospects.

I generally agree. A GM in Adams’s position, with the # of high end prospects he has, needs to balance his own organizational intel on which of the prospects is most likely to emerge, with the demand that exists in the market. If you are only going to trade the prospects that your own intel suggests are longer shots to hit as good NHL players, you will limit the level of impact player that you can get in return. If you trade a prospect that your internal scouting is very high on, then there is increased risk that down the road people will question the decision. This is further complicated in Adams’s case, by the weight of 13 seasons out of the playoffs. Teams who are on rebuild #1 have the luxury of patiently projecting out what their contending roster and timeline looks like. When you are on rebuild two or three (like Ottawa, Detroit, Buffalo), the pressure to make the playoffs now is a real factor. On balance, the Sabres are well positioned to take some risk. If they trade the wrong kid, they still have enough young talent to soften the blow. I don’t think they should be reckless, but they should not be afraid of the long-term consequences of trading a player like Quinn or any of their players still with a prospect label.

I don’t think giving up Cozens in a deal for either Ranger makes us better. I do think that if you replaced Quinn and Jokiharju in our line-up with Krieder and Trouba, that we are just better. Cap-wise, the Rangers would need to eat 1/2 of Trouba’s salary for it to work and we would need to add. I understand why some fans would not want to part with Quinn, and there would be real risk that he becomes the very good winger some were thinking he would be as soon as this year. But we would still have Peterka, Benson, Kulich, Rosen, Neuchev, Wahlberg, Östlund, Helenius… No need to fret on this one though. It doesn’t work from multiple angles. Conceptually though: Quinn, Joker, ++, for Krieder and Trouba equivalents would be a positive move in my view.

A few things have occurred that have me upgrading my opinion from a pretty hard no to a cautious yes. While it was always the case that for the Sabres to make the playoffs there would be a number of things that had to happen that either had never happened before or that had never consistently happened, it was not the case that all of these things had to happen. And, some of them are happening. Thompson, Tuch, and Dahlin are having bounce back offensive seasons. Peterka, Power and Byram are, so far, having breakthrough offensive seasons. Tucker, McLeod, Krebs, and Clifton are, in their respective ways, outplaying expectations. UPL is, on balance, the same goalie as he was last year. The special teams, after a rough start, are performing better. They are standing up for each other in a way that they didn't always do before. Also, there are 8 teams in the East who, to this point in the season, have not only been worse than us, but who we seem to have a bit of the inside track on. We have more room for improvement, both from an age and experience standpoint, and from a cap-space and trade-capital standpoint. It's precarious. But I'm trending towards optimism.

As an aside, I’ve been watching hockey for decades and I have pretty much no idea what gets a player kicked out of the face off circle. I mean, I generally understand that it relates to cheating, not being set properly, etc., but I never pick-up on the specifics that result in a player being tossed.

Up until last night, I would describe Kulich as having “held his own” at the NHL level. Sometimes he was better than that, sometimes he was exposed, but in general he showed that he could get by as an NHL player. Of course, that’s not what we need or what we want from Kulich (eventually). Last night was the first time he was consistently impactful over a full game (in my view). That is great and hopefully he continues to have an impact. If he does, there is no barrier to him staying in the NHL. If everyone suddenly gets healthy at once, you just waive Gilbert and sit your two worst forwards. My best guess though is that Kulich will struggle to be consistently good and that the best thing for him and the team long-term is that he go back to the AHL and work on having this sort of positive impact game-in and game-out there. Which brings me around to another point. Kulich is now appearing to be on the “too good and important to trade” list. This is a problem. Assuming, perhaps misguidedly, that Adams is actually trying to make a deal for a legit top-6 forward, it should be noted that giving up the sort of asset that hurts a bit, is more likely to return the player we need. Some combo of a struggling Quinn, Rosen, Östlund and Jokiharju is less likely to get you a difference-making player, than trading someone you don’t want to give up (recalling that until recently, Quinn was, and likely still is to some, an untouchable asset who was going to be the catalyst to any leap we were about to take in the standings). You trade someone when their value is high.

I’m not going to have a link, but my recollection is that Ehlers was willing to accept a trade to Buffalo (he has some, but not full, trade protection), but the stumbling blocks were the cost (Jets wanted the moon) and an extension. Ehlers was not interested in signing an extension. There was no clarity on why? It could have just been that he preferred getting to Buffalo first and seeing how he liked it and how he fit in. I don’t think it necessarily meant he was outright opposed to re-signing with the Sabres. With the start that the Jets and Ehlers have had, I don’t think such a trade has become more likely.

Of course it is a thing. It’s a thing in the sense that at the 1/4 mark of a season, the best teams will have already established themselves as such and will have, mostly cemented their spot in the playoffs. Likewise there will be teams at the bottom of the standings who will be clearly out of it. These teams - the very best and very worst - are highly unlikely to switch spots. Of course, in most cases the performance and position of these teams was predicted in the off-season. What is not a thing is the notion you are up against some nearly insurmountable and rarely accomplished task, if you are one of the teams in the murky middle on American Thanksgiving and are a few points out of a wildcard spot. Those teams will typically trade places for the last spot, or spots, in the playoffs throughout the year. I haven’t researched this, but it would surprise me if this was limited to hockey. Indeed, check out the AFC standings after week 5 this year. The really good and really bad teams don’t take long to establish themselves in those roles.

The game is on sportsnet in Canada…but not yet as they are first going to show us all of the Leaf post-game interviews.

That is good context. Thanks.

It's hard to compare eras. Rosen is basically the age that Roy and Pominville were during their last full years in the AHL. If he stays in Rochester most of this year and plays at his current pace, he is likely just under a point per game. That's similar to Roy/Pominville in their final AHL seasons.

I guess I am speculating on whether his prospect status is or will be diminished by his failing to produce offensively at the NHL level. In my view his status as a tradeable asset in a deal for the sort of player Adams is reportedly looking for, would be greater if he were dominating the AHL than it is with him being a struggling NHLer. I acknowledge, though, that different GM's may have differing views on this. As far as him proving he can play in the NHL, I disagree. Kulich was not drafted to be a middle-six player who "holds his own". He has been good but not dominant at the AHL level. He was drafted to be a goal scorer and point producer. I think he can be the NHL player he was drafted to be (I'm not sown on him), but he is nowhere near to being that player yet.

With the injuries they have, I would prefer they move Zucker and/or McLeod up in the line-up and recall Murray and Rousek to fill 4th line roles. Every game that Kulich plays in the NHL has shown he is not yet ready to be an NHL player. His value as a prospect is diminished from what it would be if he were on pace to score 40 in the AHL. I suspect Rosen will be the same. We are adding these two youngsters to a roster that is already the youngest in the league. Who will Kulich and Rosen play with who will give them optimum opportunity for success? There is no longer any logic to this.

Pegula has made more rash decisions, to be sure. I see no evidence though, that Adams is in any jeopardy of losing his job.

I realize there are reasons for skepticism, but of the teams in the mediocre middle (of which, currently, two will make the playoffs in the East), I think we are well-positioned to take a run. My optimism is higher than it was at the start of the year, in part because there are so many teams also struggling to find consistency in their games. Drawing arbitrary lines in the schedule can be a fool’s game (so, indulge me), but since the 0-3 start the Sabres are 8-6-1, which is a .567 points %. That is hardly an amazing stretch, but a .567 points % the rest of the way actually gets us in the playoffs (based on current opposition records). After a slow start, Dahlin is on pace to match his 22-23 offensive production. Also offensively: Thompson and Tuch are having bounce back years, Peterka is continuing to progress, Power is on a 60 point pace, and Byram is on pace for a career high 50 points. The PP IS getting better. Cozens, Quinn, and Benson are not producing as needed, but McLeod and Zucker have lessened the blow by exceeding offensive expectations. UPL has shown signs of playing to last year’s form, and hopefully his injury is short-term and non-lingering. The Sabres, I think, have more upside and room for improvement than most teams they are competing with for the final two spots in the East. They are still adapting to a new coach and system. They are young and have much room for multiple players to simply start to play better (including some who are not meeting current expectations). And, per the topic of this thread, they have the cap space and resources to make a significant add. If Adams can pull off a deal, I do think they are a team positioned to improve as the year progresses. This year, slight in-season improvement may be all that is needed.

The Quinn drop-off has been bad, but perhaps made worse by the expectation some had that he was on verge of busting into top-10 winger and star status.

I agree actually. Benson didn’t do anything that Konecny wouldn’t do and vice versa.

He handled taking a bad penalty that led to the 1st goal and he handled not covering for his D-men that led to goal 4, so he might as well handle the clean-up for petulantly hitting the Flyer late.

Pre-rule, I don’t recall there being an epidemic of players shooting the puck over the glass intentionally, but certainly it was the case that players did it purposefully to end pressure. Today, every player is able to flip a puck out of play at will. I think it would be happening a lot if there was no penalty. Since there is no way to definitively determine intention, this is what we have. Where I agree is on the level of punishment. I have long thought that it is somewhat absurd that an accidental trip or hook or puck over the glass is the same 2 minutes as a violent infraction like charging or boarding or high-sticking (in most instances). I’ve wondered if it would be better to have certain penalties be only one minute. Or maybe “violent” penalties shouldn’t end when a goal is scored (you serve the full 2). Another option I’ve thought of is that maybe a PP that relates to a violent offence shouldn’t start with a faceoff but with the PP team having possession in the offensive zone.

They are on pace for 82 points.

Not sure if this is sarcasm, but Rosen is having a nice year. He has improved his production year over year in the AHL. It’s early in the year, but there are only two players younger than him who are having more productive years in the A.

This starts with the summer of 2023 when we opted to make no appreciable changes to a coaching staff and very young roster that missed the playoffs by one point. Every off-season and trade deadline that you don’t at least get incrementally better, until you are a contender, is a lost opportunity. We had a young coach in Rochester in Peca, who was getting opportunities around the NHL. Rather than make a move to promote him to Buffalo, Adams told him there were no spots. Imagine a GM passing on a young coach who is wanted in NY by a veteran HC like Laviolette, because he has Christie and Ellis, two coaches who, respectfully, were not in demand. Then we opt to do nothing in the player movement period, other than add Clifton and E. Johnson. Then we get to camp and get distracted by the shiniest new toys in Levi and Benson. Neither were ready. I know there are lots who disagree on Benson and think he was the shining light of last season. I saw, and still see, a kid whose value should be soaring as he dominates his junior hockey peers. Right now we should be thrilled with the possibility of either adding Benson in the next 24 months, or moving him in a package for that elusive top line forward. Instead, we have turned him into another struggling pro, as though “he plays a mature game for his age and the offence will come”, is what our goal should be for 18-19 years olds. Since that off-season we are playing catch-up and it doesn’t help that we don’t operate the way normal teams do. The recent failings are still fresh. The Mittelstadt trade. The sham coaching search and staff changes. The buyout of Skinner and failure to use the cap savings, perhaps by design. Quinn being viewed as a near untouchable asset. Kulich now being mismanaged. Levi missing key playing opportunity by being in the NHL. The continued diminishment of asset value that comes from being terrified of moving the wrong young player or prospect. The very notion that we would go into a must win year with the youngest roster in the NHL. It is all quite discouraging.

There was zero reason to stop the rotation. Levi played two good games and one real stinker. UPL had been less up and down, but was hardly “the hot hand”. The Sabres just continually author their own misfortune. Just keep Reimer and send Levi to Rochester like every other normal NHL franchise would have done. Then when injury or poor performance required a recall, you bring up the confident kid who is playing well in the NHL. But we just can’t get out of our own way.

I would say that it means he's not looking to move players who are currently helping us win, he is looking to move prospects and picks for an established player. Where the "prospect" line is drawn is perhaps the question. Is it drawn above or below the young players currently on the NHL squad? More simply, it just means he looking to buy and not sell.

At this time of year, the best we could likely do is the forward equivalent of an Olli Maatta. I don't see us acquiring a top 6 forward now. The time for that was the off-season. The next realistic opportunity will be the deadline. Unfortunately, I think we are in the cycle of being unwilling to trade young assets when their value is high. We then, of course, are unable to negotiate a worthwhile return when their value is low. Waiting for the day when a team will trade us a top-6 forward for our 7th best prospect and a 2nd rd pick, is just going to leave us waiting.