Archie Lee

We don’t know how badly Dahlin is hurt (Ruff says he is not 100%; we do know he was injured first day in camp and that the observable mechanics of the injury suggested a muscle pull type of injury and we know those can linger). We don’t know what impact the changes to the system and changed expectations, may be having. Ruff hinted in the same interview that Dahlin may be starting to understand that his opportunities (offensively, I took it) may present differently in this system than in year’s past. Dahlin can get down on himself when things don’t go well. It is far more likely to me, as with Cozens and Quinn, that he is frustrated with his own performance and is, as they say, “pressing too much”, than it is that he is pouting or annoyed by a system change or by increased demands. Also, he is likely not 100% health wise. Of course, there could also be factors that we don’t know about.

Samuelsson may be the most disappointing player on the team to me. I remember an Appert interview from the time when Samuelsson was first promoted to the NHL. Appert described Samuelsson as “miserable to play against”. The impression Appert gave was of a player who takes every opportunity to hit, stick, cross-check an opponent; the sort of big D man who plays to the edge of the rules and makes the opposition reluctant to go to certain areas of the ice. I don’t think I have ever seen that sort of play from him. Further, that description Appert gave seems polar opposite of Samuelsson’s huggable-bear personality. For those who saw him in Rochester a lot, has something changed on that side of his game? Re: Quinn - and Cozens and Benson and the PP - the collective lack of production is perhaps a silver lining. They will not combine for 0 goals this year. The positive regression is coming. It was never the case that we needed everyone to rebound or progress. If the 1st and 3rd lines continue to play well, we might get by with Quinn, Cozens, Benson and the PP just eventually getting to last year levels of actual goal production.

That was before last night. I don’t see a reason to break the rotation now. At some point you need to be willing to give the majority of starts to the goalie playing better, but I don’t think one game in Chicago should redefine the start that UPL has had. We are better if both goalies are playing well, so I hope they stick with the rotation for at least 3-5 more games (2-3 more Levi starts).

Reinhart is an interesting case, as I see us now doing to current players what we did to him. Expectations are not being met and scapegoats are needed. Reinhart did not become the elite player he is now until he reached age 26-27-28, after he left Buffalo. The average age at the start of last season of the core 9 players (top 5 F, top 3 D, starting goalie) for Florida and Edmonton was right around 28. Our comparable group this year is under 24. Go back 4-5 years and the core players for those cup contending teams were not collectively helping those franchises wet their playoff noodles. Some were there already, but most were scattered around other teams trying to make their way as pros. I recognize that we are not trying to contend for the cup this year. I’m ok with this being a make or break year for Adams (though, if that is the case, I take no comfort due to who will be doing the next hire and the restraints that may be placed on any replacement). It is absurd to me though that this is considered a make or break year for this core group of players. Levi is 22. The veteran goalie, UPL, is 25. Clifton is 29. After him our oldest D in the top 6 is Joker at 25. The average age of our 2nd line is 21 (they combined for 38 goals last year); the fill-in is 20. Could it all come together and we make some sort of thrilling, cardiac-kids level run to the playoffs? Sure. I’m not one to draw a line in the sand (call me cautious, a fence-sitter, rational, or wishy-washy, I’m not offended by any label). But to expect playoffs from this group of players (not management), is not just unrealistic, it’s not fair. Who will be the next Reinhart?

Respectfully to all, haven’t we seen enough players who we thought were not good enough to win with, go on to be plenty good enough to play a role of some kind on a winning team, to understand that it’s a rare player who is either: - so good that he can perform at a consistently elite level even for the Sabres; or - so bad on the Sabres that he can’t find at least a properly remunerated niche role on another team? This debate doesn’t need to boil down to the extremes of “we need Olofsson” or “Olofsson sucks”. The reality is that we don’t need Olofsson because other players can do variations of what he does. Also, he isn’t terrible, he definitely has some NHL-level skills, and he wasn’t the reason we missed the playoffs in his time as a Sabre. This applies to Skinner and Mitts and Girgs and it applies to pretty much every player on our roster. They all can play a role on a playoff team. We are missing pieces though that allow them to collectively be a playoff team here.

Speaking only for myself, the blame lies with an organization that thinks/thought the 3 of them together as a line (the 2nd line, no less) was a good idea. If they stay together they will have better games to be sure, just like Cozens, Peterka and Quinn from 2 years ago; but also just like that line from two years ago, there will be bad stretches where they will not be good enough for a coach to rely upon them in tough moments. Adams made his own bed here though*. By promoting players too soon and putting them in situations where they have struggled to be successful, he has simultaneously put a losing product on the ice and depreciated the trade-value of some of these young assets who should already have been moved to make the team better *For clarity, I also think Adams has his hands tied by Pegula’s EEE and is not in a position to spend what is ultimately needed.

This might actually be a bit of a silver-lining. Dahlin, Cozens, and UPL have had bad to terrible starts. It is not likely that Dahlin ends the year with 26 points, Cozens with 14, UPL with a sub .880 save %. Along with Quinn and Benson, they will almost certainly start to play better (if not necessarily to levels hoped). I’m looking for something to hold onto, and “it can only get better from here” is all I’ve got.

I would not call that the consensus. Cozens has been bad but has looked engaged. Quinn has been invisible and avoiding contact.

I’m not letting Cozens 100% off the hook. No forward on the team, though, has more expected of him. Thompson is not expected to be a two-way offensive and defensive player. Until recent, nobody thought Thompson a leader. From the near beginning of Cozens’s time in Buffalo, the expectation and projection was near elite 2-way centre and future captain…oh, and he’s going to do that with 2 guys on the wing who are younger and less experienced than him (Quinn’s struggling, let’s put Kulich on that line!). He needs lowered expectations and some veteran help.

UPL? Cozens and Samuelsson have t lived up to their contracts for over a year. UPL has been below average for 3 games. A little early to draw a conclusion on UPL, I think.

What are you moving for that top 6 player? If Quinn or Benson aren’t part of the package, what are you doing with one of them? 4th line? Press box?

The US Thanksgiving thing is a myth. Sure, by that date there has been a sorting out of teams and the best and worst teams have positioned themselves where only epic collapses or Herculean comebacks will push them out or in (see Blues & Sabres in 18/19). But, the teams in the middle will fight to the end and there will typically be movement right up to the last few games. 45 wins gets a team in. Over the last 10 full 82 game seasons, no 45 win team has missed. 44 wins gets a team in about 70% of the time, 43 about 50%, and 42 about 30% (you need those loser points). Wins in October and November are no better or worse than wins in February and March. It was always unlikely that we were going to be a 50 win team this year. If we make it, we will likely do so in that 42-44 win range. If we are at the bottom of the conference a month from now, we are clearly in a lot of trouble and almost certainly will be out of it. If we are 10th to 13th and 4-5 points out, then there will still be lots of time to get back in it.

1-3-1 isn’t bad after an 0-3 start. Didn’t like how this one ended, obviously. But scoring 10 over two games is definitely a good sign. Going into the year I liked our projected line 1 and 4. They have been mostly good. I didn’t like lines 2 and 3. Line 3 has actually been very good. Line 2 (Cozens, Quinn, Benson) is a disaster; 1 assist and -12 between them. When they get that line either going or broken up, and UPL gets rolling (I’m not worried about UPL), I think we have a chance to be in it.

Agreed. The game needs to be played with passion. Joy or anger. Pick one.

I would be very surprised if a coach told a player to light up a teammate in practice after an accidental high-stick. I am a huge Dahlin fan. He would do himself and his team a big favour if the next time he throws a hit like that in a game and then gets challenged, if he would stick up for himself like he did here.

My guess is he is still nursing a bit of an LBI and with 11 forwards they just made it simpler and shortened the bench with the 2 goal lead. Also, right or wrong (wrong in Benson’s case), Ruff and a lot of NHL coaches likely have a bias against the 19 yr old, when protecting a lead in the 3rd. Edit: didn’t see that Ruff had commented before I posted.

You are correct; it is objectively too early to abandon all hope for this season. But, the organization did itself no favours when they chose to act in ways that are contradictory to the norms of how successful NHL teams operate. It is interesting that Adams opted to ice the youngest team in the NHL and leave millions of cap space unused (again), while also laying down the marker that this is a “no excuses” season. Adams and Pegula might be bad at their roles of GMering* and Ownering, but they aren’t dumb. They know that success would be more likely, if not guaranteed, if they spent more and were willing to move future assets for better established players. Some have interpreted this “no excuses” season as meaning Adams is on thin ice. I’m the opposite. I interpret the incongruence between the “no excuses” statement and the “ lots of excuses” actions, as an indication that Adams is not a man afraid of losing his job. *I’m not sure Adams is bad at his job. I still think the evidence supports that he does not have the authority to spend what needs to be spent. I’m also aware that at some point it makes no difference whether he is bad at his job or whether he is in a job where there is no chance of success.

To the bolded, I don't know what would happen as we have never seen Cozens get the opportunity to consistently play with one, let alone two, experienced players. Maybe he would not produce more goals, but the veteran players would score more by being more willing to get to the net and capitalize on rebounds. Maybe they would be be a more well-rounded line and the lack of offensive production would be offset by better defensive play. Maybe Cozens could relax a bit and put less pressure on himself knowing that he has linemates who can stick up for themselves and be leaders. Who knows what will happen when it has never been given a chance? How well do you think Thompson would do playing with Quinn and Kulich? This doesn't mean I am laying the blame for Cozens' issues at the feet of Quinn and Kulich. If those players are going to be in the line-up, they would benefit from playing with more experienced players. The problem is one of critical mass. There is no individual player on the Sabres who does not belong on an NHL team. The problem is that they are collectively not good enough; and a big part of that is they are the youngest team in the league, and their core 12 players are even younger still.

I'm not full-on defending Cozens. He is as much responsible as any player. While we are a mere 3 games in, it should be noted that not a single "core" player is producing offensively at a level needed. Cozens is not alone in this. I see no reason to scapegoat any individual players, when it is still this early and they have collectively been so bad. That said, this marks the 3rd year in a row where Cozens's has been given linemates less experienced and younger than he is. Last night, with Peterka out and Benson promoted to line one, Cozens was given...wait for it...the rookie. Nothing against Kulich. Pegula and Adams own this. All of it: - The poor team performance on the ice; - The emotional despondency and/or immaturity and/or frustration that their young core players are showing; and - The understandable fan vitriol that we are now seeing directed at a player like Cozens, who we know would be thriving on most other NHL teams.

There should have been a penalty called when Zucker was driven into the ice. I suspect his anger at the end was about the inconsistency. My opinion, separating the earlier non-call from the discussion, is that the penalty on Zucker was correct. You can generally get away with a reverse hit if you are actually about to be hit and you stand your ground; you can even lean back into the hit and get away with it. In this case, Clarke was not really about to body check Zucker. In my view, watching at regular speed, Clarke was applying pretty routine puck pressure. Interference or roughing, take your pick. It was the right call. Also, I actually think it was a lazy play by Zucker; rather than work to create leverage and move the puck towards the net or to a teammate, or start a cycle, he opted for the quicker route and launched himself into Clarke. There is a reason we don't see this type of play very often, that being because it is a penalty.

The surprising part of that stat to me is that on average less than 2 teams per season start 0-3. Would have thought that would be higher.

Agreed on Greenway. I thought he was, overall, our most consistent forward in Prague. On the depth issue, agreed that few, if any, teams have a spare 1st line winger. Our situation might be exacerbated though, by us not having two 1st line wingers to begin with, and further by our 2nd line wingers being perhaps better suited for a 3rd line. This remains to be seen though. From July 2nd, when we failed to add a legit veteran top 6 forward (less the Zucker signing, there was cap space and resources to add two such players), this season has hinged on certain players either rebounding or emerging. It could still happen.

I would argue that we are more missing a first line. Tuch, Thompson, and (arguably) Cozens, provided 1st line production in 22-23. None of our forwards have consistently produced at the level of a first line player, though. Big rebounds by Thompson and Tuch and/or a substantial step forward from a couple other players is needed for us to have a viable 1st line and top-six. Or, we need to transition to being a team that consistently wins low scoring games.

A mitigating factor in last year’s disaster of a season, was the play of UPL. It perhaps wasn’t fully anticipated or even predicted, but without his strong play things would have been much worse. Mitigating factors aren’t always accounted for prior to the disaster.

In the NHL, the way you protect players from dangerous hits like this is you: 1.) Blame the player who was hit for “not keeping their head up”; and 2.) Require the player who threw the hit, whether intentionally dirty or not, to exchange punches to the head with a player from the other team, who in turn will be shamed for not being aggressive enough in punching the offending player in the head and accepting punches to his own head. Problem solved.