Archie Lee

And, it's not used to identify the best players...it's used to identify the best players that we can afford and who will come to Buffalo. I don't think the analytics department said to Adams that he needed to go out and get Stillman. More likely is that we needed a D-man and the analytics department said if all you are prepared to pay is Josh Bloom and $1.3 million in cap, then Stillman is about as good as you are going to get.

I don't think we have any idea the degree to which they do or don't listen to the analytics department. Every team, it seems, now has their own models that they use that are different from the public models (why have an analytics department if you can just subscribe to a few websites). Maybe we did largely follow what our analytics department recommended. How would we know?

It's perhaps a different topic, but I do think that the struggles that Buffalo, Ottawa and Detroit have had in getting out of their death spirals and back into the playoffs, has served as a cautionary tale to teams that might otherwise opt to start a rebuild. When you purposefully decide to be a bad hockey team, the road to becoming good again can be long and dark. Teams are going to hold on and squeeze every win they can out of their aging line-ups. Nobody above us or around us in the standings, is going to concede anything.

I don't think Tampa is going anywhere soon, but I do think that once the slide hits they will vanish faster than the Bruins. The distinction I would make between them and the Bruins is that the Bruins have really limited the number of big contracts that they have; I think this has allowed the Bruins to have much better depth down their line-up. The Bruins currently have only 4 players with contracts higher than $6 million with Swayman possibly joining the group this offseason. Tampa has 8 players over $6 million and are still, reportedly, looking to keep Stamkos. The Bruins, to their credit, never seem to need players like Conor Sheary or Jonas Johansson to fill out their line-up. Of course, Tampa has two recent cup wins so they know what they are doing.

The H is often dropped today and players are either LD or RD or LD/RD. The distinction has little to do with what hand the player is and also doesn't attempt to address if they are good or bad at playing one or the other. It simply means that they almost exclusively play one side, or they play both sides frequently enough that they can be labeled as playing both. Dahlin and Power, in my view, are correctly noted as LD/RD as they play both sides and play both sides well (though, I'm sure the underlying numbers show that they are better at one side over the other).

It is possible that the big UFA RD (Pesce, DeMelo, Roy, Tanev) just won't come to Buffalo. If any would consider coming to Buffalo, and there is a Sabre tax to be paid, then the cost might be an extra year on the term as opposed to a higher AAV. So, instead of Pesce at 6.25 x 5 years maybe it is 6.5 x 6 years. Such a move is sustainable so long as they are willing to eventually move something else out. This, to me, is why you have a good prospect pool. If you sign one of the UFA d-men, then in a year you might not be able to keep all of Byram, Samuelsson, Quinn or Peterka. So you then move one or two for a pick/prospect and promote Johnson, Kulich, Savoie or Rosen. If the team is successful, this will eventually happen regardless of whether you acquire higher end talent through free agency or trades. The upside of acquiring such talent through free agency is that you retain your prospects and can utilize their ELC's when you need to move a veteran out. The downside of acquiring such talent through free agency is it will likely cost more in AAV and/or term. In both cases, you are sacrificing a degree of flexibility in one area and keeping some flexibility in another. Also, the thread title is "...what moves should Adams make..." not "what moves will Adams make...". So the point, I think, is to live for now in a world where anything is possible.

I’m not sure if you are being cheeky, but it could be UPL. Joel Hofer is coming along. The current best may well be Binnington. Adin Hill? Somewhat interesting is that of the last 10 cup winners, 7 had a Canadian starting goalie who came out of major junior (Crawford, Fleury, Murray, Holtby, Binnington, Kuemper and Hill).

Hopefully: Dahlin and Power on the 1st pair. Elite and similar to Heiskanen/Harley in Dallas. Samuelsson with either Joker or Clifton would be a fine 3rd pair. Sign Brendan Smith and he can be with Bryson on the 4th pair and serve as the 14th forward too (and fight a few guys). That leaves Joker or Clifton as the odd man out (likely Joker) as we need to get a veteran 2nd pairing partner for Byram. Hopefully we are in on DeMelo, Roy, Tanev, Pesce. Johnson can go to back to Rochester and get called up if/when there is an injury; he’s on deck if we can’t afford to keep Byram after next season. The Russians are in the hole for 2026-27.

I don't remember this either. He has expressed that he would be cautious about signing a player in free agency out of concern that it is often the case that a good player who has reached UFA status will command a higher AAV or longer term (or both) than might be reasonable based on the player's age. I don't recall him saying that he would not take a player in trade who is on a long-term deal. Of course, the unsaid is always "the right player for the right price".

I agree, but I also don’t think he should. Adams can’t completely abandon the plan. If there is a team left that we could resemble it is Dallas. The comparables aren’t perfect, but Cozens is our Roope Hintz (who was splitting time between the NHL and AHL at Cozens age). Our backend is built to be like the Stars (UPL or Levi are Oettinger, Dahlin is Heiskanen, Power is Harley, Samuelsson is Lindell). Peterka or Quinn need to become our Robertson (or a reasonable facsimile). Benson is Stankoven and maybe Savoie comes up mid-season and we have two Stankoven’s. Tuch is something between Pavelski and Benn. What we are missing are the Marchments and Tanevs and a 3rd centre (and I think a DeBoer).

This is kind of the point I think. There are people making straight-faced arguments that the league was full of guys making $750-$800 K who are better than Okposo and Girgs, as though we would have been better this year with Ryan Lomberg and Steven Lorentz as 4th line wingers. The reality is that it is not players like that who make teams like FLA so much better, it’s players like Barkov, Tkachuk and Reinhart. It’s probably worth remembering (not directed at you), that when Adams started his rebuild he had no idea that Thompson was going to become a 30-40 goal scorer and 70-90 point man (and it still isn’t clear that he will be consistently). The goal from the onset was that the prospect and draft capital acquired in the recent tear down would yield such players. The plan I’m sure was showing patience for our prospects to develop. None are close to being elite level NHL forwards at the moment and I’m not sure any actually project to be. Getting elite level forwards will require a lot of patience or a big trade (we do have elite D and possibly G, in my view).

Re: Power, it is true that he needs to learn how to physically impose himself defensively. The risk I guess is that it just isn’t in his make-up and never happens. But he retrieves and moves the puck out of danger zones so effortlessly that I think we don’t even notice the positive impact he has on possession and zone time. He is much better than Byram in my view.

Brendan Smith fits this role and can serve as both the 8th D and 14th forward.

I have no interest in carrying water for Granato. Better coaches than him get fired all the time. That said, what is strange to me is to have the view that the Sabres are poorly built and missing many elements of a playoff team (very true) while simultaneously concluding that their head coach should have somehow squeezed a playoff spot out of them. It’s not unreasonable to conclude that Granato was part of the deficient make-up of the team. It is not at all or in any way strange to say that the Sabres did not have a playoff style or calibre lineup last year.

I’m not sure. Dallas is my pick and I don’t see a reason to change it. But the Oilers defensive play and overall depth is underrated in my view. If Dallas had McDavid and Draisatl instead of Rintz and Robertson (two great players, but not in the “best in the world” conversation), I would guess that we would see less of the Dallas 4th line as they would lean on McDavid and Draisatl just as the Oilers do. Goal is another thing.

I wholly agree with your 1st sentence and the last two. The middle part I’m not sure about. Granato never got an opportunity to coach a playoff style or calibre team. I’m not convinced he can’t adapt if given a team to coach that is built to win. That said, a change to the head coach position was needed to reset culture and expectations.

I’m fine with Granato’s departure. I just think it is a bit unfair to point out, correctly, that other coaches were sunk by bad goaltending while not acknowledging that the Sabres were sunk by other deficiencies. Coaching was one of the deficiencies to be sure (poor starts, bad PP), but we had a very young roster that was constructed the opposite of what you see with almost every team in the playoffs (little experience, no grit or toughness). The Sabres of last season did not have a playoff calibre roster. That sunk Granato as much as his coaching. I think the outlier in Granato’s 3 full years as coach was not last year’s disappointing results, but that he somehow managed to get them to within a point the year before.

Watching who the Oilers had on the ice late (aside from McDavid and Draisatl): Warren Foegele killing seconds in the o-zone with a great forecheck. Giant R shot D man Vincent Desharnais on for the last 90 seconds protecting the lead. Both UFA’s.

Necas' status in Carolina perhaps hinges on their intentions with Guentzel.

I know nothing about this guy. He is obviously connected to Karmanos. Likely lost his job as his contract is up and he isn't a Dubas guy. Seems fine.

I’m not disputing this, but don’t recall him saying he wants to add a top 9 wing. I hope he does. If he does, though, it will mean demoting Greenway to line 4, or trading Skinner, Tuch, Benson, Quinn or Peterka (none of whom are being demoted to line 4), or buying out Skinner. I guess they could “Krueger” Skinner again, or trade Greenway, but I can’t imagine those options are in the plans. I’m still holding out slim hope (5% chance, maybe?) for a Skinner buyout. It’s a bit of a litmus test for me re: just how serious they are about making the playoffs this season. Though I’m holding out slim hope, I don’t think they are as serious as I would prefer.

Also, unless we are trading someone, or demoting Greenway to line 4, or buying out Skinner, there is no room in the top 9 (at least, not for a winger).

Back to the comparable Quinn trade, my primary reasons for rejecting such a trade right now, are that we have no need to move Quinn, and we don't have any particular need for the 23rd overall pick and/or Liljegren. Flash forward a year and lets say that we are in a position similar to Carolina is now, and we have made roster moves that make it impossible to re-sign Peterka, Quinn, Byram, Levi and Greenway and the decision is that Quinn is the odd man out. In that scenario (assuming Quinn stays on a steady positive trajectory and he is the best piece in the trade), would Quinn return greater value than #23 OA and a youngish right-shot 4-5 d-man? I'm genuinely not sure. I'm neither trying to over or under value any of these assets. Just asking.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. To summarize, your view is that a trade of Joker + #11 for Necas + #28 is not something Carolina would entertain because there is not a significant enough value gain in moving up to pick 11 from 28 to bridge the value gap between Joker and Necas. I think that is likely correct.

For many reasons, no. That’s nothing close to the situation Carolina is in or to what I asked or proposed though.