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Everything posted by PerreaultForever
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Hockey analytics: Does size really matter in the NHL?
PerreaultForever replied to SDS's topic in The Aud Club
okay but that's pretty much a strawman argument. Don't think anybody argues that bigger guys are generally scoring more points than smaller guys, the question is do they help you win hockey games? A balanced team is required to win the Stanley Cup. I don't understand how anyone can still argue against that. Tampa got rocked by Columbus when they were all speed and skill because of people like Nick Foligno banging them around relentlessly. Tampa added big bodies and toughness and went on to win after that. Is that not convincing enough? Virtually every team that wins in the playoffs can play hard minutes and physical hockey and teams that do not have that become "choke" teams and disappoint (eg. Toronto or Edmonton). It's not all that complicated. 2 scoring lines, 1 checking line and 1 line of grit and toughness, preferably big. That's still the formula for success. As much as he's an overpaid big dummy, does anyone want to argue that we wouldn't be better off with Lucic on our side ramming one of their players into the boards rather than him destroying Miller? Somebody probably will, but they'd be wrong. Balance. -
Bjork and Hayden were not our worst players tonight. The Cozens line with those wingers you hate was imo our best line (although no line was good). A guy like Tuch would help against a team like Calgary for sure, but I'm not counting him yet as he hasn't played a game. I'm also reserving an opinion on Joker. Him and Dahlin in preseason were awful.
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Sorry but you are so incredibly wrong. It's not the talent, it's the style. We cannot handle tough defense first hockey simple as that. We can skate with the Edmontons and Torontos and with decent goaltending beat them, but Calgary, Boston, Washington, anyone who plays hard physical dominant D fuggedaboudit.
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Oh I agree fully, they can, they should, but I also see some things in Dahlin's game that just seem the same. As I've said, I truly believe he might be a slow thinker and thus he needs more coaching and less pressure situations for his development. He needs to learn to react more instinctively (the right way) . We rushed him without assessing his limitations properly. Obviously that was partly because our D was so crap he was still a better option than what we had, but ultimately it was bad for his development and I expect him to take longer than average to be great or he might always have big flaws.
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This is a very interesting one for me. Calgary plays solid D, pretty much as close to old school hockey as you get these days and is exactly the kind of hockey I don't think we are built to play against. It feeds perfectly into the ever ongoing size and toughness and grit debates that go on forever. If we can hold up well against them I might have to accept I have outdated ideas, but I don't think we will.
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To be clear, I'm in no hurry to trade him away. I think the deconstructing already done is enough. If I was KA I'd see what we could get for him and if there was a big offer out there I'd seriously consider it but I wouldn't ditch him. I'd much rather build a team where we can reduce his role. I think that'd be the best option. Drop that idea of him as the dominant D man, the Hedman or Lidstrom or whoever and say this is our offensive guy we use on the PP and play more when we're behind and need to gamble, and we keep him off the ice more in the 3rd when we're protecting the lead. But for that we need to add that complete player or some additional solid D men. Hopefully Power and Samuelson help get us there (among others). Would I prefer he was a complete player? Sure. But I don't see that happening right now unless he makes big changes.
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Fast starts are due to youthful exuberance and doing what the coach tells them to do when the game starts. Then they get caught up in the game and it fades. I really don't find this overly surprising or unique. I mean what's the alternate hypothesis, that these young guys are bad athletes and can't keep it up? They're unfit? I don't think so. Not sure why you're upset over the other comment. Guess you read it as condescension? Wasn't. Just saying that I've seen this sort of thing many times before. Haven't you? So thank you very much for your kind words and judgements. Have a nice day.
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I'm hopeful. I really think Cozens is different from what else we've had here over the last decade. he doesn't play the same (and it's a different game now) but I see a lot of Mike Peca elements in him. A true leader.
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Well, I don't think it's all that complicated. At this time of the year most teams play harder/better at home. Florida 8-0 at home, both losses on the road. Toronto 8-2 at home, 3-3 on the road. Boston 6-1 at home 2-4 on the road and so on. Calgary had a great road trip but not many exceptions to that including us. It shouldn't be this way maybe but it's a long season and teams simply don't go as hard on every game and home games tend to bring out the best efforts. Second half of the season this will change and the truly better teams will be tougher on the road too as points become crucial. I think it's also true too that young teams historically take longer learning to win on the road (and to hold leads). If you've watched hockey for decades you've seen this play out time and time again. Line match ups do matter but I don't think that's huge in our case as we do not have clearly defined top lines or checking lines, they are all kind of equal. Sure, Tage's line is the bigger offensive line at the moment but it's not by a lot. Scoring is spread out and so is defense. The defense is another matter though. We do not have big minute shutdown D men who can carry big chunks of the 3rd. This matters a lot imo which is why I like all those shiny D prospects we have coming and want to keep that cupboard stocked full.
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Cozens. He will be here a long time and captain this team, mark my words.
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In fairness though I don't think there are many regular season games where any teams come at you every period for 3 full periods. They usually fluctuate and have off and on periods. We want to start faster I think and try to get ahead (that's the plan anyway) and we do run out of gas. But I also think we run around and panic under pressure in the 3rd. I'm thinking it's a work in progress sort of thing. I feel we are seeing more effort than in the past years so I am hopeful that it keeps improving.
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I'd like to put in a vote for Power Bryson. I'm starting to love the way he plays and think he could be an unexpected piece of the puzzle. Of the veteran Jags I'm ditching Hagg, Butcher and Miller but maybe keeping Pysyk for a few more years. RHD, nothing special, but a little tougher and a little more reliable and consistent. Now for the big one, I'd consider trading Dahlin. I'm starting to convince myself that he is indeed thick as a post and since he hasn't had good D ingrained into him so it's instinctive, whenever the game picks up tempo and he has to react and think he gets confused, hesitates and makes big mistakes. He's fine when we have the puck and when he controls the rush, good even, but in his own end under pressure he's like a deer in the headlights. Not sure this is fixable so I'd entertain the idea of ditching him if a good trade was out there. If not, I'm hoping with Power and Samuelson and maybe somebody else we can decrease his late game minutes and minutes in general. joker I just don't know. Wait and see what he brings when he returns. He could imo go either way. What this roster really still needs is a new Bill Hajt, Jay McKee or Mike Ramsey.
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You're avoiding that. Tough is tough, what's to define? Are they tough enough? No, emphatically they are not. Disagree? Haven't watched enough to be definitive. At this moment Savoie would be the better/higher pick. Both imo will be NHL players. Either would improve the Sabres but if both were there I'd take Savoie before Geekie. Time for you to go watch some dreaded Zdeno Chara highlight reels. (and of course it doesn't, big guys can just be giraffes, don't be obtuse)
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Lighten up buddy. Its an amusing anecdote from playing actual hockey. If you'd been on the ice back then as a scrawny teen like I was you'd get it. Pity we lost ex Sabre Ron Roscoe at the time as he was too good for high school hockey. Now he was tough. and if you thought Marty McSorley was tough, you should have met his relatives. Crazy the lot of them. Not my point. Please stop.
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Nice to finally have a hockey team again isn't it? Now we can spend our time on pointless arguments about size and attitude. Question: Is the current Sabres roster (players and prospects all) in your opinion big enough? or tough enough if you want to get picayune and separate that. Cause that is the real question. You know my answer, what's yours?
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Can't disagree with any of this. Also think Cozens needs to keep getting stronger (which I think he will) not because he is soft or weak but because of the style he plays demands it.
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lol, that is really weird to me. You have some fine looking toilets wherever you live................. Farm boys that's what we need. One year we were pretty good in high school hockey and won the city (Hamilton) championship. Went on to play the provincial regionals and met this team from the rural area around Hagersville and all these guys were freaking huge. Arms like our thighs from pitching those hay bails I guess. We were far more skilled and fast but they just pummeled us. They were all built like brick sh*thouses. Marty McSorley country.