GASabresIUFAN

Well that was terrible.

I started late. That was one of the worst played periods of hockey by the Sabres this season. If Montreal was a real team we’d have been down 4-0.

KA's failure to address the goaltending has been the biggest issue with this club. I believe had we had adequate goaltending this team would have already turned the corner. The stats support this conclusion. For the last two years in games they received good goaltending, they play at a playoff level pace. That is where the comparison to 2005/06 has the biggest hole. That team had Miller and Biron. We have nothing. Even in 2003/4 the combo of Biron and Noronen had a gaa of 2.54. Our goaltending mess this season is allowing 3.55 ga/gp for 28th in the NHL. What made the 2005/06 team so good on offense was balanced scoring where 10 forwards have 16-30 goals including 6 with 20 plus for a 3.37 gf/gp. Our current squad's goals for per game of 2.67 (23rd in the NHL) looks anemic, but is nearly identical to the 2003/4 2.68. When you dig deeper the offense's potential become clearer. Mitts and Tuch missed most of the season so far with injuries and we have been forced to play Hayden, Bjork, Caggiula, Eakin and Jankowski consistently which has severely limited the offense. On the positive's, Skinner and Thompson are on pace for 30 goals each, Cozens and KO for 20 each with Tuch on a 25 goal pace. Now add full years of Mitts, Krebs, Quinn and possible a healthy VO and you have 9 guys who have the talent to score 20 or more (including 5 guys who have already scored at that level or better) in the NHL. Unless we fixed the goaltending and get better defensively, a blooming offense won't make a difference except for in entertainment value. However if KA manages to fix those issues, this team will turn around and quickly just like we did late in 2003/4.

Dude, take a breath. I agree that the 03/04 team took a major step forward at the end of that year. I already posted in another thread that I wanted KA to be a buyer at the deadline to improve the D and goaltending to help the team turn a similar corner this season. I was posting earlier how I think things will play out in KA land. I also admit that there aren't perfect parallels with the Briere/Drury teams, I think we are headed in a very similar direction. Obviously we don't have a Teppo, Lydman, Miller or even a Biron. However this new group with Power and Dahlin are considerably more talented then Campbell and Kalinin and I think the forwards project similarly. Max -JJP - Similar style player. Obviously Max was already proven by 2005, but was a 30-40 pt player in 7 of his 9 years in Buffalo Drury - Tuch - Drury was mostly a 25gt 35a guy. Tuch is outpacing those numbers with a bigger role here then in LV, but brings similar leadership Kotalik - VO - I think VO is a better player, but Kotalik at his best was a 20g 22 assist kind of guy. Briere - Thompson - Briere was awesome in 06/07 w 95 points but otherwise in his prime was a 30 goal 40 to 50 assist guy. Danny was 25 when he broke out in 2003. Thompson is on pace for 30 goals and 30 assists at 24. Connolly - Krebs - Tim was 20 when he came to the Sabres in 2001 and for his career was a near 1 to 3 goals to assists scoring about 45-55 pts per season. His peak was as a nearly pt a game player at 27. I think Krebs is a very similar player with 6a and 9 pts in 17 NHL games with the Sabres as a 20 year old rookie. Roy - Mittelstadt - In his prime Roy was a 25-30g, 40-45 assist guy. Mitts clearly has similar potential if he can stay health. Vanek - Skinner - g/gp career - Vanek .36; Skinner .35 Hecht - Girgensons - Hecht is obviously the better player, but Hecht was a hard nosed player who could play up and down the lineup and all 3 forward positions. Z is the same but his hands aren't nearly as good. Gaustad - ??? Pominville - Quinn - Obviously Quinn is completely unproven. However Pommers made the NHL full time at 22 and once there was a consistent 65 to 80 pts player for us with 20-30 goals per season. Pommers in his last full AHL season put up 30g 38a in 78 games. Quinn ytd at 19 has 18g 35pts in only 24 games with 2 pts in 2 NHL games. Just imagine how good this kid will be at 22. Grier - Okposo - KO is the better player. Mair - Murray?

https://sports.yahoo.com/2022-nhl-trade-deadline-bruins-040722063.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall Coyotes trade the rights to D Michael Callahan, a senior at Providence for a 7th rd pick in 2024. Boston wants to sign the Mass native to boost their pipeline.

What this team needs to do is learn to win games. Get good goaltending and the rest will follow. I do like that we are getting tougher. Fitz and Samuelsson are adding toughness to the blue line. Thompson, Tuch, Ko, and Cozens add compete every shift. I’ll tell you what I love about Dahlin. He never hangs his head. He learns from his mistakes and keeps getting better. This team feels like it’s close to breaking out. I know it won’t happen, but I’d love to see KA be a net buyer at the deadline. Bring in a goalie with term and a veteran defensive D. Make a charge in the last 30 games. Build confidence to take into next season.

Who do you want?

"Subtle is the watch word" "world" was a spelling error. Basically it means that KA is only going to make decisions that get us to the cap floor. No major changes just subtle ones.

I couldn't agree more with the bolded, but I just don't see KA being aggressive. I see him being patient to let the kids development determine what he needs to do. His patience was rewarded on the Eichel deal, but has failed us in goal. He let the Eichel situation drag on until he got what he wanted, but wasn't wise enough to get adequate insure for the failed Ullmark deal and the fact UPL wasn't ready. Tuch, Krebs and a 1st is a core creating decision, while the goaltending fail has lead to the corrosive losing culture. I believe KA wants next season to be evaluation of the kids year 2. I think he'll stick with the status quo until forced to do otherwise. I'm not sure I disagree with the general approach at this point. I want to see what a Skinner, Mitts, Cozens, Thompson, Krebs, Quinn, Tuch, JJP, Dahlin, Samuelsson and Power core do before making anyone big moves. Subtle is the watch word for me this off-season. I continue to be struck by how much this team is reminding me of the Drury/Briere teams. I see Tuch as the Drury type leader who instilled that losing is no longer acceptable. I see Okposo as the Grier type lockerroom leader and Krebs as Tim Connolly. I see a huge influx of kids coming up from the minors (Quinn, Samuelsson, JJP and UPL) to assume huge roles in one season like Roy, Vanek, Pommers and Milller did. What I'm looking for now is the Teppo Numminen type D leader that helps all the kids on D become their best selves. (I also wouldn't mind finding a undervalued player like Toni Lydman).

The real question is how much roster flexibility does KA want. I have assumed KA will want most of the current guys back except the JAGs and give spots to the kids like JJP and UPL. However what if he decides that they aren't ready? What if he doesn't believe that Bryson and or Fitz are part of the solution in the next few years? What he wants to move on from VO and Bjork? In theory that would open up significantly more roster spots. Take VO, Jankowski, Bjork out of the roster and keep JJP in Rochester and now you only have 10 forwards. Move on from Bryson, Fitz and Pysyk and keep UPL in Rochester, and your are down to 4 D and no goalies. These moves leave 9 roster spots open to outside players and over $21 mill to spend on them just to get to the floor. This scenario would be very un KA like. Still it's interesting to ponder as I don't think UPL is ready for full time NHL duty, and I'm worried that JJP isn't enough defensively aware to not have significant growing pains if placed in the NHL. I also have advised trading VO, but think this has a less then 30% chance of happening.

I'm not sure the guy quoted in the OP numbers are accurate. I've discussed this issue before The Forwards: Signed (11) Skinner, Tuch, KO, Mitts, Cozens, Thompson, Asplund, Bjork, Krebs, Quinn, and Girgensons. Cost: $30,926,500 Key RFA: VO - qualifying offer $3.25. Has arbitration rights. Likely 4.5 to 5 mill to retain over 3-5 years. Other RFAs Murray (787.5), R2 (874), Biro (874) UFA Jankowski: Probably 750K to retain or a small raise. Maybe a two year 825 per season deal if KA likes him. Signed in the AHL: JJP $886,667 The Defense Signed (4) Dahlin, Jokiharju, Samuelsson and Fitzgerald. Cost: 10,750,000 Un-signed draft pick: Power - cost $925K plus bonuses RFAs: Bryson: Q offer $874K. Has arbitration rights. 2 years for 1,000,000 max per season UFAs: Pysyk, probably cost $1 to 1.25 to keep him. Signed in the AHL: Laaksonen $853,333 The Goaltending RFA: UPL Q offer $787,500 Dead Money CoHo's $791,667 The Math: I'm going to assume KA sticks with the "plan" and stays with as many kids as reasonably possible. He probably re-signs Jankowski to be the 4th line center and retains VO for 4.5 for 3 years. Also JJP makes the team. He therefore carries 14 forwards for a cost of $37,138,167. On defense he goes with 7 D, Bryson and Fitz return but in the 6th and 7th spots. Samuelsson, Power, Dahlin and Jokiharju are a given in the top 5 leaving a slot open for a veteran D. I don't think they bring Pysyk back. Cost for the 6 D 14,675,000 with one slot open I think we have to assume UPL will be in Buffalo next season. I can see KA locking him up for 2-3 years. Maybe a contract like Thompsons? 3 years at 1.4 per season. Add these three figures with CoHo's dead money and we are at $53,000,834 with a D slot and goaltending slot open. This gives KA $10 mill to acquire veterans to fill roles on the team. I'd try to get Quick ($5.8) from LA and Orlov ($5.1) from Washington, but after looking at both teams cap situation, neither maybe available, but guys like those should be KA's targets to get some playoff experience and more real vet leadership on this roster. I maybe in the minority, but if KA adds two really solid vets in goal and on D, I think this team would have a real chance to surprise next season.

…. or are they easy to mock because of their quality?

Why? What role does he have beyond this season? Tuch, Skinner, Mitts, TT, KO, Cozens, Asplund, Girgensons and sadly Bjork are under contract for next season. Krebs and Quinn are locks for next year’s roster. Murray, R2 and JJP will also be pushing for jobs and we will likely re-sign VO as well. Where does Hinostroza fit in? This isn’t to say he hasn't done a good job for us, he has, but right now he is just a trade-able asset. Unless we trade VO, I think Jankowski has a better chance of returning next season as the 4th line center. The difference between Vinnie and Pysyk is that Pysyk plays a position of need next season and Vinnie doesn’t.

Do you realize these two punks played less then 3 years each for the Sabres.

I would have trade Tokar to them for a 2nd.

Tons of people have mentioned Carter. They just didn’t say nice things. Talk about parlaying one good year into millions of $. $9 mill to be exact.

Jack means about as much to this franchise now as Turgeon. Nothing!

Savoie, Salomonsson, Ohgren, Snuggerud, Kaplan plus giant D Warren at 100. I also grabbed Havelid (G) at 134. Very solid on the Swedish U20 and U18 national teams, but had a rough go of it at the Hlinka Gretzky.

Cap Friendly agrees, as long as he doesn't play 10 NHL games this season.

No need to rush him back. It isn't going to make a difference in the standings and ultimately they'll want him healthy for the AHL playoffs.

It was never going to succeed because the strategy was fundamentally flawed. The defense wasn't very good. The backup goaltending was terrible which compounded the injury issues with Ullmark, the coach couldn't coach offense or design credible lines, and the depth KA brought in was terrible because he gave all his cap space to the declining Hall. I never said I didn't understand the strategy, but I thought then and think now that Hall was a terrible choice to upgrade the team. He peaked at 26 and has been declining ever since. We could have signed someone like Toffoli and had money left over to possibly upgrade the defense and backup goaltender.

I agree, I think Krebs is our only real playmaker. Skinner is also our only proven finisher. VO might be next if his injury hadn't taken away his shot so far. This is Tage's first season over 10 goals. Tuch has hit 20 once, but is now in a bigger role then in LV so hopefully he'll continue to blossom. Mitts and Cozens career highs so far are 12 and 11. This team is really the great unknown with tantalizing clues of what might be.

I don't think there is enough stats on Thompson to come up with an accurate average. This is his 1st season in the NHL fulltime, at center, playing top line minutes and on the top PP. You maybe able to use this season as a benchmark going forward, but his prior 145 games really are useless as the are in a different position and in a different role.

Shooting % changes are interesting, but are mostly telling in the rear view mirror and can be hugely influenced by quality of linemates, and opportunity (such as PP). Jack averaged about 10% his first 4 years and then broke out for 36 goals and a 13%+ shooting %. Because of his injury the next season, we can't tell if that was a breakout to a new level or a career year. Hall, G-d bless him, had been on a steady decline when acquired since his breakout in 17/18 with 39 goals and a 14% shooting %. Prior to the peak year, he was good early in his career with % from 10.4 to 13, but then fell to 9 for 3 years. After the breakout the decline was obvious 9.7, 6.9, then 8.1 (with us and Bos). He stinks again this year at 8.6. These stats were one of big reasons I was so against his signing, especially for $8 mill. His game didn't warrant that size contract. On the other hand you have Sam Reinhart. Samson is 13.8 for his career. Only his second season was below 10, every other year above 12 and he's been great the last 3 years at 15.3, 19.2 and 16.3. Those are Crosby (career 14.5) or Ovie (12.8) type numbers. I really wish we could have kept Sam. Then there is Skinner. His career is a yo-yo. When he's on he's great. 4 Years of 30 to 40 goals with 12 to 14.9 shooting percentages. When he's not or ill used (see RK) you get years of 7.7, 6.3, 7.7, 8.7 and 8.2. The best way to describe Skinner is consistently inconsistent. This year is another upswing with 20 goals YTD and a 13.2%. So the real question for Thompson is whether this season is a career year like Hall, a possible career year like Jack, or an ascension to a new level. Prior to this season, Tage had played only 145 NHL games across 4 seasons with shooting % of 5.5, 6.5, and 8.3. (the 19/20 season was only 1 game due to injury). In the first 2 seasons he also played in the AHL, and last season was effected by Krueger and Covid. His RK and post RK splits are interesting at 4.1% and 9.7%. I'm going to be optimistic about Tage. His production this season is a product of a talented player finally maturing combined with opportunity. His ice time has grown to nearly 18 minutes a game vs 12 to 14 previous years. He is now playing on the top line with better players and on the top PP. He was always known for his big shot and based on his improvement last season under DG, maybe this breakout was already on it's way.

So he is getting better.