GASabresIUFAN

Great attempt on nearly an impossible task. I worked on one of these in the past and I kept bogging down on prospect integration, with questions like when do Kulich and Savoie make the team and whose jobs do they take? How quickly will it take Levi to make the NHL and then assume the starter's job. My guess is the Sabres and NHL teams in general have a financial planning of sorts that does Monte Carlo simulations to help them make salary and term decisions. I like many of your assumptions, but have to quibble with a couple. I think Cozens gets another bridge deal for 2-3 years before he gets a truly big $ contract, but I love the faith in a huge breakout. I also think Mitts has a bigger season this year. I'd probably flip the estimates. I also agree that Krebs' term with the Sabres is probably very limited. I really like the work on the defense and I hope Comrie plays well enough to earn the big $ extension.

This isn't the comparison because it doesn't look at who they replaced, aka how many jobs did the GM need to fill. Stevie Y had 6 open roster spots to fill. 3F, 2D and a G. Out were Fabbri, Gagner and Vrana (and their 43 goals), plus M Staal, DeKeyser and Greiss. In came Perron, Copp, Kubalik as the forward replacements. Chariot and Maatta in on D and Husso in net. Det got younger for the most part and better at forward and in goal. The defense is still suspect. Their differential last year was -82. Even if they cut that in half with the improved offense they still aren't close to a playoff team. The Sabres needed to replace only 4 players none of which were major contributors like those replaced in Det. Out are JAGS Eakin and Hayden up front (and their 6 goals), Pysyk on defense and Tokarski in net. They are being replaced by top rookie JJP and Quinn upfront, top 4 D Lyubushkin and a goalie with actually potential in Comrie. Like Det we are seriously improved. You have to remember that KA entered the off-season with 12 forwards under contract plus RFA VO and 5 D under contract plus RFA Bryson. Other than goaltending he really didn't have to do anything to field a team (other than get to the cap floor) The Sabres differential was -58 last season. I think between Power, JJP, Quinn and full seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs, we are about 40 goals improved. Now the question is Comrie and Lyubishkin enough to improve our goals against by 20 or more goals? Ottawa moved on from 8 players. At forward White, Brown, Ennis and Tierney weren't re-signed, or were traded or bought out (27 goals). On Defense Hamonic and Del Zotto are gone and in goal Gustavsson and Murray were traded. They have been replaced by DeBrincat and Giroux upfront, only rookie Sanderson on D and Talbot in goalie. The are also much improved. Behind Forsberg's goaltending they were only -39 last season. Their question is can they improve their offense behind Girous and DeBrincat to get to a positive differential. Like us they maybe be close. If I had to guess Buffalo and Ott are nearly even as teams heading into next season. Det is still a step behind unless Husso stands on his head.

He is. Lost 2 years. By the end of last season he moved up from depth player on the Gophers to key top line player. I’m expecting a big year from him.

@LGR4GM you left off Huglen, Cederqvist and Costantini who have a legit shot at being NHL depth or very good AHL players. Maybe one will surprise.

Colorado needs to get a another trade done to re-sign Kadri. How about Bjork and a 2nd for Compher and we'll retain 500K of Bjork cap hit. Colorado then waives Bjork, clearing all 3.5 mill of Compher's salary. What does this do for the Sabres you kindly ask? Well he brings Cup winning experience. He plays all 3 forward positions. He also is a better goal scorer than Hinostroza or Girgensons, He also kills penalties and solid in the faceoff circle. Isn't he going to block JJP or force Vinnie to the bench? A temporary yes and a temporary yes. I'm not 100% sold on JJP making the team. Vinnie was re-signed with a big raise for more than depth purposes. I think that he is JJP insurance as well. But who is our Zemgus Girgensons insurance? He missed all of 2020/21 and 23 games last year. As a team last season we utilized 14 forwards in 40+ games and then another 4 18 or 19 games each. Without a move like this once we get passed Vinnie our depth is Bjork, R2, Murray, and Biro. Excited? I didn't think so. If KA makes a move like this Vinnie stays at 13, JJP becomes the 14th forward and then R2, Murray, and Biro. Granted JT has only a year left on his deal, but if they can re-sign him, he and Asplund can become 2/3 of a long-term shutdown line. It's just a thought that won't happen, but it is interesting to contemplate.

This looks like one of my posts from last year at this time.

Actually the oddsmakers aren’t truly objective. Their job is to get the money flow as even as possible. They may actually know the Sabres are better than Detroit, but Detroits headline acquisitions created more buzz, and therefore more money on them, decreasing their odds. Ask yourself, which Det signing would reasonable be expected to make the Sabres out of camp? Husso, Copp? Maatta and Kubalik wouldn’t make our team. Perron has been really excellent in his 30’s but at 34 he isn’t going to to be a 50 pt player forever and it wasn’t worth blocking Quinn or JJP from making the team. Do you really think Stevie Y signs these players if he didn’t need them?

Maybe they trying to get a look at some of the FAs?

What happened to Karlsson and Nadeau?

What is the Minn-Duluth goalie’s status?

Costantini has been very active. I also think Kozak and Richard have had some nice moments.

It was one of tweets. It seemed completely out of wack from all the scouting reports and with we are seeing here.

JJP looks like everyones BFF. He literally talks to everyone, pats them on the back, and gives them hugs. He is either the most loved guy in the locker room or the most annoying. But boy can he play hockey. I thought he was nearly as good as Stutzle at the world juniors and he has done nothing to change that opinion.

Harrington said he had to improve his skating. How?

Depends on how they define "prospect," although adding 3 centers ranked by Wheeler at 4, 23 and 22 respectfully doesn't hurt. Wheeler uses 22 (Under 25 for goalies) and under as his prospect criteria and then adds a nebulous "Not a full-time NHL player. This is the arbitrary section of the criteria." His top 10 for us in February were Power, Krebs, Quinn, Levi, JJP, Rosen, Johnson, Portillo, UPL & Samuelsson. My guess is Krebs and Samuelsson graduate from his list as they finished last season on the Sabres (not including being sent down for the AHL playoffs). I doubt Power's 8 games will disqualify him. FYI he had Kisakov 11, Poltapov 12, Nadeau 13 and Bloom 19. Now add Savoie, Östlund and Kulich. Given how highly he thought of the pool 5 months ago, my guess if we'd still be No. 1

Good bye and good luck! (...and there was much rejoicing).

That's ok for the next 2 years, but then we have to re-sign Dahlin and Power and we are going to need a couple of prospects ready to step in. Other than Johnson, we have no one and he may not sign. Compare that to the forwards. Savoie, Östlund, Rosen, Kulich, Bloom, Nadeau, Kisakov and others are signed in the system and will be fighting for jobs in the NHL maybe as early as next year in some case, but certainly in the next 2-3 years. That means as guys like Z, KO, VO, Asplund's contracts expire, we have cheap but quality talent to take the jobs. We don't have that same luxury on defense. Obviously we can continue to fill in with guys like Lyubishkin, but that's not the best solution.

Do you really think Lyubushkin, Joki and Bryson are part of the longterm solution?

Sorry to say this but nearly every job for next season is written in pen already. Up front Tage, Skinner, Tuch, Mitts, KO, VO, Asplund, Cozens, Krebs and Z are all guaranteed jobs. Hinostroza is also making the team but whether or not he is in the starting lineup is another question. The only guys who are guaranteed aren’t Quinn, JJP and Bjork. On defense Dahlin, Samuelsson, Joki, Lyubuskin and Bryson are making this team. Unless Power has incredibly terrible camp, he is making the team. Only Fitz, Clague and Pilut aren't guaranteed to make the squad. In net Comrie is definitely making this team. Unless Anderson quits he is as well. Other than JJP making the squad, the biggest camp drama is going to be who plays with whom. Who is going to be Power’s partner? Do Matt and Dahlin remain partners? Who plays center and who moves to the wing? Does DG scramble the lines or does he stick with what worked late last year?

Maybe we need to draft some D?

Murray for sure, but I doubt JVR.

That is incorrect. https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-waiver-rules/

Assuming Fitz is the 7th D, who do we like for the 8th slot Pilut, Clague or someone else? The Amerks blueline is getting pretty crowded as well. Prow, Davies, Eliot, Tischke, Priske, and Laaksonen to go with either and or both Clague and Pilut.

I thought those kind of moves would have happened already. Yes they don’t have to the cap until the start of the season but where are the Sabres going to play any acquired players? Rochester? I’m not a fan of Butcher type moves. I only want players that make us better at this point.

I guess I missed on this one. We still have Johnson and Portillo and we drafted both Östlund and Kulich. So with Comrie and Lyubushkin in the house, I feel better about our playoff chances, despite the progress other teams made as well. Both prediction. Comrie is this year's Husso. The Sabres win 44 games end up with 95 points and grab the last playoff spot. Quinn is a top NHL ROY candidate scoring 25 goals. Power has a good, but more subtle year with 7 goals and 28 assists. Skinner leads the team in goals with 35. Thompson does well again with 33, but adds 40 assists to top 70 points and lead the team in scoring. Mitts breaks out with 22 goals and another 33 assists.