GASabresIUFAN

So Ethan Bear for a 5th didn’t make sense, but Stillman for a decent prospect (& former 3rd rd pick) makes sense. Look who has better stats for the Nucks. ….and people wonder why I’m not all in on the Adams train.

He skates well and was used in Mn to stop opposing teams.

I guess KA proved he was willing to make a move. I also guess Van wasn’t trading Schenn for Bloom.

@DarthEbriate if you model can’t react to a developing team, coaching changes or new players then your model is crap.

Where is our great analytics dept?

Ok. Wow. I feel so much better about our chances. At least he is signed through next season. Is he actually better than Bryson or Clague. If not, why make this deal.

So I basically nailed it. Kind of shocking that the band-aid approach didn't work.

Here are the Athletic's latest playoff prognostications for the East Pit - 75% NYI - 38% Fla - 36% Buf - 29% Det - 19% https://theathletic.com/3666576/2023/02/27/nhl-2022-23-stanley-cup-playoff-chances-and-projected-standings/ Of these 5 teams, Fla (64 pts) has played the 2nd most game and has the lowest winning % (.525) and they currently sit 5th in the wild card race. The NYI have played the most games (63) and has the 2nd lowest winning % (.548). Buffalo is currently in 3rd in the WC standings with 66 pts. The Sabres have the highest winning % of the group (.569), have played the least no of games and have the highest differential. To put it mildly, the Athletic's model is crap. 538 has Pitt at 60, Buffalo at 45, NYI at 37, Fla at 27, and Det at 18. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nhl-predictions/ Moneypuck has Pitt at 63, Buf at 51.7, NYI at 34.5, Fla at 30, and Det at 10. https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm Hockey-reference has Buf at 57.6, Pit at 55.6, NYI at 36.5, Det at 23.6, and Fla at 12.3. https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm One of the models is not like the others.

Translation:

Much may depend on whether those two even want to come back and at what prices. Add that KA could add someone like Greenway at the deadline or in the summer to take one of their jobs. For example: If the Sabres Greenway and re-sign Jost the 2023-24 Sabres forwards would look something like this L1 - Skinner TnT Tuch L2 - Mitts Cozens Quinn L3 JJP Krebs VO L4 ???? Jost Greenway On topic, where would Kulich fit next year in this scenario?

Let’s say for arguments sake that the Houser move is a precursor to KA getting a goalie for Buffalo at the deadline. At this point, assuming KA feels the prices are right and in light of Tuch’s i jury, my ideal deadline acquisitions would be Chychrun, Vejmalka and Greenway. All have two years left on their deals. All add skills we need. They would add 10.325 to the cap for the next 2 years, but if Comrie and Bryson are traded away, we’d net save 2.8 mill (after re-signing Clague for the 7th role). Even with this added payroll, our cap for next season would be 63.3 mill for 10 forwards, 7 D and 2 G. Only Jost, Z, and KO to re-sign. All that said, I’ll believe it when I see it. Less ideal would be to just add Greenway and a D like Jensen or Schenn and figure out the goaltending in the off-season. I think adding a D to replace Clague and Bryson in the top 6 is hopefully a necessity.

So Chychrun and Vejmalka to Buffalo for a 1st in 2023, a late 2nd in 2023, Rosen, Comrie, and Bryson?

So here is the deal. Subban and Comrie are being traded in separate deals. UPL is being sent down to the A to be backed up by Houser and the Sabres are acquiring Vejmalka from AZ. Comrie goes to AZ and Subban to Edm’s AHL to be available in case of emergency during the playoffs.

FYI 18 year old in the A - Kulich is currently 4th all time in points and 6th in p/gp. The guys ahead of him are Robert Dome (who didn’t pan out), followed by Pastrnak, W. Nylander, Filatov and Perfetti.

FYI: in 6 NHL starts he is 4-2 with a 2.97 and .917.

Congrats Jake, you’re finally going to play in the playoffs. He’s a +7 this year with Chicago. That’s really saying something.

It’s official KA has completed his deadline transactions.

It’s going to be very interesting to see how KA handles Savoie and Kulich next season. Savoie is NHL or CHL and Kulich will only be 19 next year. The Sabres are also packed with forwards either under contract or under team control. The only important UFA are team leaders KO and Z.

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/sabres-deadline-primer-how-gm-kevyn-adams-can-add-to-his-contending-roster/article_87787962-b6ba-11ed-a011-03c896d24f54.html Lance does a good job analyzing the team’s needs and give detail on the players who may be a fit here that might be in KA’s price range. Greenway and Jensen are on the list.

I was thinking that as well as I watched us demolish Wash. How about a compromise? Where the blue/gold whites on the road and the black/red goat heads at home?

I was reading some articles in Minn and given the year he is having, his contract and their cap situation, the authors expect something like a middle level pick or prospect in return. The comparison was the Jost for Sturm trade. I think both Van and Wash are asking more than a second right now for both players, but obviously they aren’t getting it. I except prices to start to fall. The Western race is about over and I expect Wash and Ott to throw in the towel soon. If Niederreiter is only worth a 2nd in 2024 how much are 30+ D worth?

Has Bryson played himself out of Buffalo for next year? How confident are we now the UPL is ever going to be part of the solution going forward?

I don’t think spending a 2nd on Schenn/Jensen and a 4th on Greenway would devastate our development plan in the slightest, especially since Greenway is under contract, and the assets could be recouped by utilizing the cap space to help Western teams get their players. Also last I looked setting a winner standard is part of the development curve as well. and no, I didn’t have to look that up. Spending what TB has recently on marginal players is a different matter.

Is this a surprise? Over last two years look who he has brought in; Anderson, Subban, Dell, Comrie, Lyubushkin, Sheahan, Hayden, Pilut, Clague, Vinnie, Pysyk, Jankowski, Wolanin, Caggiula, Jost and Butcher. Not exactly a list of all-stars. Most were vet minimum signings (or nearly so) waiver claims or a vet someone paid us to take (Butcher). If he makes a trade for guys like Jensen or Greenway, it will be his biggest moves since he cleared the old core out. It would also be a signal to the fans, coaches and players that the organization back to competing for championships even if more development is needed.

While there maybe some truth to your assertions, on closer inspection they are just excuses. We have the same coaches as last year, ran the same system, but defense and goaltending were the two areas KA wanted to improve immediately by bringing in outside help. However we have seen no improvement and the PK is actually worse. This is either a personnel issue or a coaching issue or both. Considering KA’s commitment to DG, the first changes need to be in personnel and the sooner the better.