GASabresIUFAN

https://theathletic.com/4128144/2023/01/26/sabres-trade-timo-meier-nhl-deal/

While I doubt this trade will occur, I will say that the timing would be appropriate. At the time of the ROR trade, I thought the deal was premature because we hadn’t really developed a core or an identity. That’s not true at this point. We are nominally in a playoff spot. Have a core group and an identity. We also have a deep forward pipeline, but no one in the system who plays like Meier. If KA thinks that getting Meier would make us a legit contender, then he should go for it. I think a partner for Power is a more pressing need, but Meier would be a good addition.

There is no question Meier is an excellent player with a skill set we can benefit from. Pros 1) Power forward and Pt a game player 2) Another goal scorer -35 last year and already 28 this year 3) Only 26 - so he'd have a chance to be a core piece. 4) Has playoff experience and was excellent for the sharks in 2018-19 playoffs 5) Physical player who has 104 hits ytd. Nearly twice Sabres forward leader Girgensons has. Cons 1) Q offer $10 mill - if signed long-term, will that limit KA's ability to re-sign other core guys long-term and/or hinder our ability to retain adequate depth. 2) Don't know if he'd be a fit in the locker-room 3) Don't know if he'd sign an extension to facilitate a trade here. 4) Don't know how much of his precious assets KA is willing to trade.

He looks more like a AAAA player who can't stick in the NHL full time.

His qualifying offer is $10 million. Has KA shown any indication he is will to fork over that $ contract long-term to someone who wasn't developed here, who he isn't sure will be a fit here? He has been very clear he wants to lock up his core - TNT, Cozens, Dahlin, Mule and Power. He is also clear that he isn't bringing in rentals. I just don't see it.

The difference is that Matthews has done this year after year while this is Tuch’s first foray into the top echelon of the NHL. Track record is important. The more telling stat is that Ovie and Dahlin also have 53 points. Dahlin is tied for 20th in the NHL in scoring as a D. Pretty impressive.

No, but possibly. No VO is going to leave the lineup long before Quinn. When that happens Savoie is likely to take that spot in the lineup. I see Kulich stepping in Mitts' current spot also.

I believe Savoie will take VO’s spot in the lineup.

Does Jost’s production really matter if he is creating space for Casey to make passes to VO to convert into goals?

Who are your top 10 players? McDavid, Mckinnon, Kucherov, Pastrnak, and Draisatl certainly make the list! What about Matthews, Marner, Stamkos, Sid, Rantanen? Makar, Fox, and Hedman? The 3 Russian Goalies? Where do Dahlin and Thompson fit? Honestly I feel Dahlin is closer to a top 10 player right now than Thompson. Although Thompson and Robertson are probably top 20 at this point. Where does TnT place with Top center McDavid, Draisatl, McKinnon and Matthews?

As I mentioned up thread, I think the way KA would play the cap dump would be to use our cap space to help another team fit a big trade under their cap. For that we'd be given a prospect or draft pick. The example of how this would work would be Carolina wants to acquire Meier from SJ, but can't fit his 6 mill cap figure under their cap limits. SJ eat s 50% (3 mill) and then trade Meier to us. We eat another 50% (1.5 mill) and then complete the trade to Carolina. Therefore Carolina gets Meier for a 1.5 mill cap hit in the end. Carolina gives SJ their 1st and a good prospect (plus maybe a cap dump forward like Stepan) and we'd get Carolina's 2nd rd pick or SJ's 3rd. Obviously who knows what the exact terms would be, but the deal would function some like this. Carolina did a similar trade last year to get Max Domi at the deadline. https://www.jacketscannon.com/2022/3/21/22989703/max-domi-traded-to-carolina-hurricanes-columbus-blue-jackets-2022-nhl-trade-deadline-aiden-hreschuk

While I think it’s certainly possible KO won’t return, I can’t see the salary cap demanding a veteran playing in his place. Once you add Jost and Cozens back to the 16 players under contract the team’s cap hit will be about 61.5 for 18 players. Bettman expects the cap to only rise to 83.5 which would put the floor at around 61.8. Even if the Sabres re-sign Z and 4 minimum vets, the cap hit will come in at least 67.2 mill. Next year the can easily afford a vet his a big contract, but it’s not a necessity.

You can’t have a guy who physically can only play once a week.

Jost fitting in immediately and playing well has enabled DG to slot all the forwards correctly. It enabled Mitt’s to go the wing and it actually created a very Lindy Ruff type line in which you have a playmaker (Mitts), Sniper (VO) and a forechecker (Jost). It allowed Mitts to get out of his own way and play a simpler game and in turn gave Mitts his natural game back, the one we saw when DG took over two years ago and in the last 3rd of the season last year. However it also solidified lines 2-4. Jost forced Krebs to the 4th line and also allowed him to simplify his game and play the style of KO and Z and low and behold he is blossoming. Now we have good chemistry on all 4 lines. In fact since Jost joined with Mitts/VO there has been almost no line juggling. DG is keeping everyone together despite recent struggles by the Cozens line wingers. This patience is being rewarded. The team is no longer relying on TNT line to dominate to win games. Look at the 4 game win streak and you’ll see 5 g from TNT line (Tnt 1, Tuch 2, Skinner 2), 3 from the Cozens line (all Cozens), 4 from Jost’s line (all VO) 2 from the Krebs line (both Krebs) and 3 from D (2 Power, 1 Dahlin). 10 forwards and 5 D registered at least 1 pt in the last 4 games.

I don't see Meier coming here. What I do see is one of the those crazy 3 way trades where we get a draft pick or prospect for helping to ease the cap burden on the team acquiring Meier. For example: Carolina wants to acquire Meier from SJ. SJ eats 50% (3 mill) of the cap hit, trades him to us, we eat 50% of the remainder (1.5) and Carolina gets the Meier for a 1.5 cap hit. In return Carolina sends SJ a 1st, a 3rd, a good prospect and Derek Stepan and we get SJ 3rd in 2023.

You and I laughed about this is the offseason. Det and Ott had major roster holes to fill and not enough in the pipeline to fill them. Buffalo had added Tuch and Krebs during last season and then the kids to the forward group. We didn't need or want any UFA forwards. I still wish however that KA had made a run at someone better than Lyubashkin for the defense or get Lyubushkin and someone else. It's just not his philosophy at this point.

Yep by winning %. 564 for Buffalo and 560 for Washington. 3 pts back w 3 games in hand will do that.

Certainly not on defense, but the depth on that team at both forward and D was better at this point. Toni Lydman was the 6th best D on that team. Grier, Goose and Hecht were the 4th line and they had 10 forwards score 18 or more goals. Still there are a ton of similarities. Both teams have 2 impactful rookies Vanek/Pommers vs JJP/Quinn.

Maybe we need to update the thread title to - Sabres making a charge for a playoff spot.

No real need to rush either to the NHL.

This team continues to remind me of the 2005/6 team. You could see back then the kids growing with confidence each game. UPL is stepping into the Ryan Miller role. Even Ryan Miller sees it. Apparently he said as much when in Buffalo to Dunleavy, who mentioned it today on the broadcast in the 1st period. That said, there are substantial differences. One Miller is far superior to UPL and the 2005/6 team was much better defensively, especially on the PK. That team was excellent offensively and had significant fire power throughout the lineup, but this team has the potential to be even better

During the off-season we talked about how few goals the dreadful forwards you mentioned scored for the Sabres and that the kids plus full seasons of Tuch and Krebs would elevate the offense giving DG 4 lines that can score. While many expected Cozens to build on last year, the heights being reached by the top line have been both unexpected but a pleasure to watch. Before the season I thought the team would score 260+ and I hoped for 270+, but they are blowing my predictions out of the water. Like you I fully expect JJP and Quinn to progress even further. I also think Jost under DG’s watchful eye could be a breakout player. If you go read his pre-draft scouting reports, the scoring potential is there. So far DG seems to be the only coach he’s had as a pro that is beginning to unlock it.

Just finished watching the game, and it turned out pretty much like I expected. I wrote this last night’s game thread. I was impressed with the team’s jump in the first, but by mid way in the second you could see the legs dying. KO’s 2 on 1 was the slowest 2 on 1 I think I’ve ever witnessed. Still a strong regulation road win against a team desperate for points. TnT’s line was spectacular in the first. I really liked Stl uniforms and UPL let in sone softies but made big saves to help seal the game. DG must be very proud of the boys.

It’s not a shine questions. It’s more of a $ question. You can’t keep everyone. With Skinner, Tuch, TnT, and Mule signed long-term and Big $ going to be spent on Dahlin, Power, Cozens and then probably Quinn and JJP, you are going to have to have cap space for another 14 players. If UPL becomes the goaltender long-term, he’ll have to paid as well. Here are the numbers. I estimate that adding Cozens, Power and Dahlin to Mule, TnT, Tuch and Skinner will cost 50-52 million. Even at 85 million, we’re talking 33-35 million for 16 players. Give JJP and Quinn 6 each and now were down to 21-23 for 14 players. I expect Krebs and Jost to get 3 year deals, but after that, I think there time here could be over. Why? Savoie, Rosen, Kulich, Östlund, Bloom, Nadeau, Kisakov, Neuchev among others. Even if only half these guys make an impact, they are going to force current guys to move on to help stay cap compliant. In fact, I see Kulich and Savoie replacing Mitts and VO as early as 2024-25.

Most of those guys shouldn't have been here last year, but I digress. As the deep pipeline matures guys like Mitts, Krebs, Jost, and VO will be pushed out. Z and KO are the next 2 to move on although maybe not for another season. Hopefully KA finds Vinnie a good home at the deadline and hopefully we stay healthy and don't need him to return.