DarthEbriate

Power and Dahlin both need new contracts the summer of 2024. The cap might begin to climb that year, but is more likely to start climbing in 2025 and beyond. Power may elect for the bridge and bet on himself on for the 3rd contract. Two comparisons in the event he has career-altering injuries and only gets 8 years of NHL service: A) 2024 signs 8x$8M. B) 2024 signs 2x$4.5M, 2026 signs 8x$11M (but only plays 6 seasons) with the escalated cap. Option B nets more cash. And, if healthy, he still has 1 more mega contract in either case. Every one of these bolded were the undisputed #1 and PP defensemen at the time of signing their contract. Ekblad. Signed 2016. In 2015-16, Ekblad led the D in scoring and Brian Campbell was in his final year of contract as the only other viable PP guy. Ekblad was taking the reins. Hughes. Signed Oct 2021. Previous season outscored the next closest D (Myers) 41 points to 21 points. Werenski. Note: 3rd contract (3-yr bridge). Signed July 2021. Previous season missed 1/3 of the games. Had the highest ATOI on PP, but was 2nd in scoring D to Seth Jones. Chabot. Signed Sep 2019. Note: ELC had 2 slide years. Previous season was 3rd on team in scoring and doubled the next closest D in points (Ceci). Heiskanen. Signed Jul 2021. Previous season was 2nd in D scoring to Klingberg, but ATOI was 24:58 (25 min/night) to Klingberg's 22:42. But, Klingberg was killing it on a 7x$4.25M cap hit so Dallas could afford to lock in Heiskanen as the #1 future. I'll stop there because Fox, Makar, and McAvoy are likely even more extreme. My main argument is simply Dahlin is the guy and is still ascending himself. You make top dollar as a D by getting points on the PP. Dahlin's going to get the first 1:20+ of PP time with the top snipers to pad his stats. Power has only his rookie and sophomore seasons to build enough of a case points-wise to get the massive payout and unless Dahlin is hurt or the Sabres decide to trade him (but why?), Power won't get that opportunity on this 2nd contract.

I can easily see Power's 2nd contract being a bit of a bargain (in the $3.5-$5M range). He'll get a chunk of cash for being #1 overall, but he's not going to be a massive points producer unless Dahlin gets hurt. I don't see Granato putting two D on the top power play unit and I don't see Power kicking Dahlin off the top PP in the next two seasons as Dahlin also is continuing to improve. The cautionary tale: What's better than a #1 point-producing defenseman? TWO #1 point-producing defensemen. The trouble is, there's only minutes for one #1 PP QB type guy on the ice, particularly the D-man who can play 1:30 of a power play if you keep the puck in the offensive zone. Burns was scoring 67-83 points per season in SJ, Karlsson was scoring 62-82 points per year in Ottawa. Since they're both on SJ they've combined for: 83 Burns 45 Karlsson (it half worked!), 45 Burns 40 Karlsson (same as one of them alone), 29 Burns 22 Karlsson (epic fail, injuries), 54 Burns 35 Karlsson (same as one alone). Burns ended up getting traded with 34% salary retention.

Cozens is our Kessler/Cirelli with better offensive potential. We'll see improvements in the dot, improvements on the scoresheet (he plateaued last season, but will achieve more consistency), and he'll secure himself as the 2C in terms of ice time. The consistency is still coming. He'll have more defensive zone draws than Thompson and likely only PP2 time so the overall points totals won't be there. 50 points won't surprise me. 2021-22: Auston Matthews 4 gp 1-1-2, -5. Connor McDavid 2 gp 1-2-3, +0. (One EDM game was a 6-1 Oilers victory; McDavid had a secondary PP assist in the Sabres win.) 2021-22: Cozens v. TOR and EDM: 6 gp 2-3-5, +2. 1 GWG. That's Peca-ish right there.

I'm thinking Thompson looks much better defensively in what will only be his 2nd pro season as a center. VO is decent positionally defensively, and although Skinner sometimes gets lost in his own zone, he's still a good forechecker. Their best defense is their offense -- we could easily see three 35+ goal scorers on that line.

His recovery from his health scare, the removal of Krueger and stapling him to a line with unoffensive-Girgs and Larry (yes... the GLO/LOG line was great at what it did, but Okposo couldn't generate that many point with those two), and reintroduction of PP time gave him new life. I agree, the PP time likely starts to drop as Quinn pops, or Krebs finds a shot to even out his pass-only approach. It's over. Oky-Lan Kposobi has the high ground.

Since the team started purposefully stinking, they haven't had a go-to #1 defensive pairing. The top pair was a pair by default, not because of awesomeness. The last pair I can even find that skated together for more than a season is Regehr-Myers. Samuelsson-Dahlin looked like a thing at the end of last season. A very good thing. A #1 pairing thing that's going to control the ice for 24:00+ minutes/game. Muel will still make some mistakes, but the team's increasing skills are going to overcome them. He's also going to rub so many players out into the corners and deflect shot attempts harmlessly into the net with his reach. Muel + Rasmus the Youngest. Are you ready Regehr-Myers? Lydman-Tallinder? McKee-Warrener? Zhitnik-Smehlik? You're all about to be surpassed by parsecs.

Even leaving aside the incremental increases by young players, the improvement is across the board between the opening lineups of this season and last: F- Tuch > no Tuch. Quinn/Peterka > Bjork. Krebs/Mitts > Eakin. Hinostroza/Sheahen > Hayden D- Muel > Hagg. Lyub > Pysyk. Power > Bryson. (and post-ASG Dahlin > pre-Dahlin) G- Comrie > Anderson. (Backup goalie is a push. I think Toker=Anderson at this point.) 10/14/21 - a 5-1 beatdown of MTL in front of a silent player introduction sequence at home, and a rowdy 6000 by the end of the game Skinner - Mitts - Hinostroza (that's right, Mitts had a tremendous camp last year and earned 1C) Asplund - Thompson - VO Girgensons - Eakin - Okposo Bjork - Cozens - Caggiula (Hayden INJ) Dahlin - Jokiharju Bryson - Miller Hagg - Pysyk (surprisingly steady pair to start the season) (scratched: Butcher. Injured: Samuelsson, after a great camp) Anderson (Tokarski) My guess for opening this season is based on 4/29/22 lineup vs. CHI, with Okposo inserted back in the lineup. Yes, I'm starting JJP in Rochester. (And I also would like to see Mitts at 3C, Girgs at 4LW where he belongs, and Quinn up to 2LW shortly after opening night.) Skinner - Thompson - VO Mitts - Cozens - Tuch Asplund - Girgensons - Okposo Quinn - Krebs - Hinostroza (Sheahen). (Bjork in Rochester with JJP) Samuelsson - Dahlin Power - Jokiharju Bryson - Lyubushkin (Fitzgerald) Comrie (Anderson)

That's the one. Harry the Hat made so much money off of Major Derlin (who told the princess that the shield doors must be closed) that he was able to buy his way into a NYC judge position.

They're light on the veteran presence (out are R2 and Jankowski) and perhaps also on proven scorers (Quinn/Peterka), but they're not light on potential with this influx of youngsters.

I don't believe it. (That is why I fail.) Anderson was great for the team last year in terms of confidence and communication... but he's a <.900 goalie at this point. They can make the playoffs if Comrie pulls a Shesterkin out of his helmet and rolls a +.925 sv% for 60 games. I think that's too much to ask.

Limited sample size, but in Portland @ Seattle this season, Kozak was the best and most noticeable player on the ice (minus Seattle's goalie). He was physical, he was fast and engaged, and one really nice assist. He isn't an offensive dynamo, but he's a 200' grinder with purpose.

I think Quinn makes the team out of camp on the 4th line and HCDG moves him around looking for the right center to mesh with. There will be ups and downs and lots of complaints about how easily he's knocked off the puck or pushed down to the ice like happens to all young players. But when the season ends, he'll have solidified himself on the powerplay, found a line (maybe an Asplund-Mitts-Quinn), and have a very bright future. Probably only around 35 points, but with a minimum of 14 goals. Definitely -10 or worse, though. Other teams will get their scoring lines on the ice when he's out there.

I've got Kulich written in as my 3C in Rochester to start the year. And 4C if they decide Biro is going to get a look at center and to keep him protected a bit. He'll have his ups and downs. By season's end (when Levi signs in Buffalo and earns a shutout or four)... Reinhart will still be fine, but it'll look like the greatest Sabre trade in recent memory.

When everyone was healthy at the beginning and end of the season (and the team looked good), Okposo was the 3RW. However, he was 4th among forwards in average ice time because he was on PP2 and killed penalties. I don't see any of those conditions changing this season. PP1 - Thompson/VO on the wings, PP2 of Quinn/KO. Maybe he loses some PP2 time as the season goes on, but his 3rd line setup will have the most talent we've had with him in awhile. I see a similar output to last season, but it will feel more impressive because instead of skating with Girgensons (4th liner this year) and Eakin (gone) and an assortment of rookies, he'll be with a Cozens, Mitts, Krebs, Asplund, or Quinn all one year improved in their games. Okposo is still capable of playing in the top 6 if either of VO or Tuch is injured. More specific? 70 games played. 16:10 min/gm. 18-28-46 and -2. I almost said +2 but I have goalie concerns.

Win 16 playoff games in the same postseason.

Errrr, uh, errrrm... you know, Kubalikahun. Kahun. My mistake, it was sunny and beery and I couldn't remember his name. Kahun was immediately in the top 6 and then we didn't even tender his RFA. That same 2019-2020 season, Sobotka and Vesey spent a lot of time on the 2nd line with Skinner-Johansson as well.

Someday, yes. But right now Thompson and Skinner work well together. And we've seen that not every center meshes with Skinner -- though a lot of that was Krueger. Tuch (midseason) and Olofsson (end-season, once his shot returned) were quality mates for them.

I would love to see Krebs become Brierish. The thing to remember though, is that Briere was 24 before he showed his Briereness consistently. And then Phoenix traded him because they wanted a big center. This season, I can see a rookie 4th line of JJP-Krebs-Quinn for advantageous matchups. I can see Krebs forcing his way onto the 2nd line wing. I can also see a rough camp with turnovers that lead to Krebs starting the season in Rochester as the top center (so as to play center exclusively and in all situations). My other thought is the "how many rookies at once?" question. I believe a lineup can only handle one F and one D rookie at a time. This is especially important this season where the primary competition (understaffed BOS via injury, lots of UFA Detroit, and trade/UFA pickup Ottawa) are all going to be in the fight with us at the beginning of the season. Defensive lapses or learning on the fly from JJP/Quinn/Power all at once is not going to make the fans happy. It's why Sheahan is a good pickup. I think either Quinn or Peterka starts the season in Buffalo (yes, and Krebs is here, too). Then the other of JJP/Quinn is the first call-up and once injuries are recovered from, then Bjork/Sheahan is the person sent down and the kids stay.

Only a few years ago, Sheahan would’ve been asked to play in our top 6… like Girgensons or Carrier or Kubalik or Deslauriers.

The time to lock up the core (whomever they are perceived to be) are the summers of 2023 and 2024. The cap will still be flattish. Once it explodes though, the money will get obscene. If I’m a good young player like Thompson/Cozens who could be great… I’m signing a bridge and betting on myself. I should be able to get silly money in a few years once the escrow ends.

Helpful for LTIR. They’ll be able to ice their entire roster now, if all the skaters happen to be healthy. Heck, it also means they can trade for a $5M goalie. Will he be back for the playoffs?

It's the Cirelli deal minus the bridge in between.

Sheahan was solid (in a limited 4th line role) two seasons ago and that's what is expected. He was also fine last year for Seattle. I think he's an upgrade over Eakin. He works the boards well and is a solid veteran influence for the kids. He's a good player and probably ends up in 60 games and nets 10-15 points.

Cirelli was a 3x$4.8 cap hit (base salaries from 900k to $3.3M to $7.2M... wow) ending in RFA after this upcoming season, and then the extension already signed to an 8x6.25. This will look either fantastically cheap if he continues to improve and takes over top 6 minutes and PP time from Stamkos, or utterly horrible if he can't ever get past Stamkos/Point or whomever takes over after them. Cozens is being used in a similar "mostly defensive" center approach to start his career, but with expectations to be the 2C, so I can see a similar contract path. Now, if Mitts or Krebs takes off and claims the 2C role and Cozens gets permanently relegated to a 3C -- then getting a Nick Paul/Nicholas Roy level contract could be very advantageous to the team and himself.

Absolutely, but also fun. And the peers got me intrigued... so here goes. The Ranking column is the save % ranking across the NHL season. The final "Ranking >12" column is basically a "qualifies for leaderboard" where I arbitrarily selected 12 games played as the minimum to include the save % because in each season there are 5-7 guys who play 15 minutes and make 3 saves and stand atop the NHL leaderboard with 1.000% on the season (I'm looking at you Kasimir Kaskisuo!). But I didn't do that for the seasons where they were in the 50s because I'm lazy. Miller Age | Season | Sv % | Ranking | Ranking>12 25 | 05-06 | .914 | 13th | 10th 26 | 06-07 | .911 | 22nd | 17th 27 | 07-08 | .906 | 50th | lazy 28 | 08-09 | .918 | 16th | 12th Ullmark Age | Season | Sv % | Ranking | Ranking>12 25 | 18-19 | .905 | 53rd | lazy, Hutton was 45th 26 | 19-20 | .915 | 26th | 21st 27 | 20-21 | .917 | 22nd | 13th 28 | 21-22* | .917 | 21st | 12th *with BOS Is entering-his-prime Miller better than entering-his-prime Ullmark? Yes. Is he dramatically better? I'd argue no. Each had a poorer year (loss of Drury/Briere vs. a Eichel+Skinner season with Housley where the team attempted to be offensive with only 1 line). Also, neither had yet had a top-flight season either. None of these are up with the real goalie leaders (+.920) in any season. But Miller got Hart votes in 05-06 and 06-07 as the guy carrying the entire load (Lindy Ruff style) on stacked Sabres teams.