JujuFish

Monday is what I would expect for a 2-day package sent today. Weekends aren't business days.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-62122982

I haven't seen too many Bond films, but I'm just popping in to say Connery is the best suave Bond, Craig is the best action Bond.

Jessica Pegula won her match today and moves to the third round.

I watched a few episodes of these, because it seems like a lot of people have been talking about it. I still don't think I know what I watched, but I think I like it?

Because kids are so excited to watch politics, heh.

I followed her progress at the French Open. She was doing fantastic until the quarterfinals where she ran into the current unstoppable force that is Iga Swiatek, who dropped just one set the entire tournament.

Even the Holiday Special?

Oh I know lots of people who do. I just can't fathom it, even if it were one of my favorite movies, within close proximity at least. I could do it for a re-release. Like, if they brough LOTR back to theaters, I could definitely rewatch the trilogy, but that's because it's been 17 years since the latest one. But seeing the same movie in back to back weekends? Or the people who watched Episode VII or Endgame 5+ times in theaters? Boggles my mind.

That comment is irrelevant when it comes to the crap talking.

Heh, the guy who picked the two-time reigning champion and the best team of the regular season to meet in the finals. Boy you sure went out on a limb with that one!

And, as we all know, Whataboutism is an infallible defense.

They're doing a good job of investing and diversifying all over the place in preparation for the oil money running dry. But come on, human rights. How can these golfers sleep at night by tacitly condoning Saudi actions by accepting their money?

I don't know how anyone can watch a movie twice in theaters.

Call it the quarterfinals and change the year to 2005, and it's right. Go Amerks!

You guys could make a Dahlin vs Hughes thread.

Poor Lions, 0 prime time games, and they have to face Allen on national television.

Granted, it's all a waste of money, but an order of magnitude is significant.

So ironic in the "Life Free or Die" state. Don't need to wear a helmet or a seat belt here, but marijuana is a no-no, despite it being recreationally legal on every border.

The more times you play, the higher your overall odds of winning. Each individual chance remains the same, but you're taking more chances. If you have a slight amount of coding experience, this is extremely easy to check. Generate two random numbers between 1 and 20 (to simulate Buffalo's 5% chance) and check if either number is a 1, marking it as a Sabres win if so. Loop a million times. Calculate the win percentage. You'll see it's pretty much 9.75%.

It's like you're aware of Gambler's Fallacy and you're overcorrecting. The odds don't change between plays, but if you buy 10 tickets right now, for 10 consecutive lottery wins, your odds of winning at least one of them are significantly greater than 1 in 300 million.

Since you're not providing me an alternative answer, I can't explain why you're wrong, so I'll try to explain why I'm right. Let's start with your coin flip analogy. What are the odds of getting heads on a coin flip? 50%. Flip it again. What are the odds of getting heads on the second flip? 50%. Now I tell you I'm going to flip it twice in a row. What are the odds I get heads on either flip? It seems to me like you think it's 50%, but it's 75%. With a coin flip, this is particularly easy to see, because it's very easy to enumerate the results. We have HH, HT, TH, TT. Three out of four results have heads, AKA 75%. Let's go with a more complicated example, closer to the draft but nowhere near as complex. Let's say there are 6 teams eligible for the draft, and they all have equal odds. Now we're looking at two rolls of a die. Let's call the Sabres 1 (because we're #1!). On the first roll, everyone has a 1/6 chance. After the die is rolled once, we have a winner and that number now becomes a re-roll, making the remaining teams have a 1/5 chance. This is still simple enough to enumerate. We have the following possibilities: 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6 = 5/5 results with Buffalo winning 2-1 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6 = 1/5 results with Buffalo winning 3-1 3-2 3-4 3-5 3-6 = 1/5 results with Buffalo winning 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-5 4-6 = 1/5 results with Buffalo winning 5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4 5-6 = 1/5 results with Buffalo winning 6-1 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-5 = 1/5 results with Buffalo winning ------------------------------------------------------ 10/30 = 33.3% chance Buffalo wins As you can see, the odds of Buffalo winning are how I'm attempting to describe. When there are 1001 draws like the NHL, with over 1 million combinations, it's infeasible (for me) to write them all out, but the principle remains the same. If you know the individual odds of something happening in two different setups, it's easy to calculate the odds of it happening at least once by calculating the odds of it not happening either time and subtracting that from 100%. In the coin flip example, the odds of not getting heads either time is 50%, so 1-(.5)(.5) = .75 or 75%. In the die roll example, it's 1-(5/6)(4/5) = 1-(20/30) or 33.3%. Assuming the numbers upthread are accurate, for the draft lottery it's 1-(.95)(.946) = 10.13%. See above. Hopefully you'll understand why you're wrong.

I don't know what the numbers are, but if it's 5% in the first draw and ~5.4% in the second draw, then Buffalo's odds of winning one of the two draws is 10.13%.

And?

Someone assuming this wouldn't be that far off, since their odds of winning one of the two would be 9.96%.