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Everything posted by dudacek
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Another one is Lehner acquired for a 1st, no return. The McNabb deal is a perennial favourite around here. I haven’t completely tracked the Kane deal trade tree, but I don’t think the Sabres have any assets left from that one. Botterill was a disaster at managing assets and Adams squandered a lot of what was left in the Bubble. Yes, the McCabe injury was a stroke of bad luck, and Botterill set him up for failure, but managing to turn Ullmark, McCabe and Montour into exactly nothing is a huge black mark against Adams that no one ever talks about.
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This was interesting to look into: Cozens acquired for pick 7, flipped for Josh Norris Skinner acquired for basically a 2nd, no return Jokiharju acquired for Nylander, flipped for a 2026 4th Savoie acquired for pick 9, flipped for McLeod Mittelstadt acquired for pick 8, flipped for Byram Lyubushkin acquired for nothing, flipped for a 2025 4th Erik Johnson acquired for nothing, flipped for Simon-Pierre Brunet and Ryerson Leenders Colin Miller acquired for a 2nd and a 5th, no return Sam Reinhart acquired for 2nd overall pick, flipped for Kulich and Levi Jack Eichel acquired for 2nd overall pick, flipped for Tuch, Krebs, Östlund and Greenway Taylor Hall acquired for nothing, flipped for Bjork and Kisakov Brandon montour acquired for a 1st-rounder (Brayden Tracey) and Brendan Guhle, flipped for Stiven Sardarian Eric Staal acquired for Marcus Johansson, flipped for Riley Stillman and Viljami Marjala Jake McCabe acquired for a 2nd, no return Linus Ullmark acquired for a 6th, no return Connor Sheary acquired for a 4th (Mattias Marcelli) flipped for Dominik Kahun Pominville and Scandella acquired for Foligno and Ennis, flipped for Michael Frolik Ryan O’Rielly acquired for Grigorenko, Zadorov, Compher and Jeremy Roy, flipped effectively for Thompson, Johnson and Colin Miller The most notable thing to me here was the amount of assets frittered away by Botterill and during Adams first year. Eichel, Reinhart, Ullmark, O’Reilly, Montour, McCabe, Foligno, Hall, Johansson, and Miller are all playing in the NHL right now. In exchange the Sabres have Thompson, Tuch, Greenway, Krebs and Kulich.
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The market for a player like Bowen Byram is fairly well established in recent years. Chychrun for Jensen and a 3rd Sergachev for Moser, Geekie and a 2nd Byram for Mittlestadt Hronek for a 1st and a 2nd Provorov (and cap space) for Sean Walker, a 1st, a 2nd, Grans Chychrun for a 1st and 2 2nds I think this is a player who had a lot of GMs very interested in him 5 years ago, and who did a ton of work this season to rehabilitate his value. If a 25-point Byram coming off concussion issues can return a 60-point centre, what can a healthy, 40-point, 23-minute-a-night +11 on stinky Buffalo Byram return? I expect the market to be strong: any team lacking a PP QB, or looking to upgrade their skill level on the back end (read most teams) will be very interested. It feels like this is the chip Adams intends to play and one that could generate a good return.
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I think Cuylle and Schneider simply do not have Peterka’s upside. Those two for Peterka and cap space is more fair value. Maybe add Clifton and a prospect for Kreider? Miller is the guy the Rangers will be shopping, rather than Schneider. Ive never seen a trade like this, but what do we think of Miller and Schnieder for Samuelsson and Byram?
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The player on this list I struggled the most to find comparables for is Mattias Samuelsson. There just aren’t many 25-year-old defensive defencemen with 5 years left at $4.2M period, let alone ones who have been traded. Alex Carrier for Justin Barron Dante Fabbro on waivers Will Borgen (and a 3rd) for Kaapo Kakko Olli Maatta for a 3rd Brian Doumoulin for a 4th None of these guys are perfect matches. The contract in and of itself is actually quite good in this rising cap environment for the entire prime of a big responsible stay-at-home 2nd-pairing D. The issue is how Infrequently Mule has been that player due to injury and poor play. I suspect there are teams who have no interest in Samuelsson under any circumstances and teams desperate enough for the concept of Samuelsson that think they can wash off the Buffalo stink. I think the Sabres best approach may be the one they took with Cozens: find a similar depreciated asset, exchange change-of-scenery guys, and cross your fingers. When I hear Lindy Ruff talk culture and about figuring out how certain Sabres didn’t match his preconceived concept of them over the course of the year, I think first of Mule. I think they played him with Dahlin down the stretch to rehabilitate some value in order to trade him this summer and I think he - along with Byram - is the most likely Sabre to be moved. I don’t expect the return to be much.
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I think what bugs me about your Amerks posts is the lack of context. "They're doing it wrong, just like the Sabres" Amerks might be flawed (we'll see) but they're contenders; they're nothing like the Sabres. They had the 7th-best defence in the AHL this year and the 7th-best offence and the 4th-best record. In NHL terms, they're the Knights or the Canes, not the Sabres. It's one of those things where you've set yourself up to be 'right' until they win the Calder Cup, and even then you'll say "It wont translate to the NHL because they're doing it wrong."
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I think the Rangers would have trouble paying Byram what he wants. I also think Byram is significantly better than Schnieder. Would have to be a few more pieces to make this work
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The market for players of Alex Tuch’s profile and stature is pretty well established: a 1st, plus an equivalent prospect as a rental at the deadline. Brock Nelson is the most recent example. In a best case scenario, Tuch’s size, speed, contract and playoff experience all may add up to him being the hottest asset on the market and push that up. The Timo Maier haul (a 1st, 2nd and 3 prospects) is a best-case scenario. Some might argue he’d offer a bigger return if you trade him now. I guess that’s possible, but I didn’t come across an example, at least for a player of Tuch’s profile. Assets like him rarely get moved for anything other than futures, so a hockey trade would be a surprise. I think given team needs, I’d be trying to re-sign him for as long as that door stays open.
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I think Jack Quinn is a tough call for all GMs after the season he just had. Is he a 60-point top-six potential break out you can buy low on? Is he a 35-point one-way winger who’s going to bounce around and wash out of the league in a few years? Exact comparables were a little tough to find Kaapo Kakko was traded for Will Borgen and a 3rd. He had similar production over a much longer runway in terms of NHL games. Same position, better size, less skill? Phillip Tomasino was traded for a 4th. He’s a similar player with a lesser pedigree. I think his value at the time of the trade reflects what Quinn’s will be next year if we keep him and he shows less than he did this year. Alexander Holtz went one spot ahead of Quinn in the same draft, has a similar profile and has shown a lot less as a pro. He was traded for Paul Cotter, a useful younger bottom-sixer. To me, that’s the floor on Quinn’s current value. Alex Newhook for a late 1st and an early 2nd. To me, this is probably the best comparable to where Quinn is right now. Newhook is of a similar profile and had similar production at a similar point in his career to where Quinn is now. Kirby Dach had produced at a lesser rate than Quinn over 3 NHL seasons when he was swapped for pick 13. That might be the absolute ceiling for Quinn’s value, but I doubt he gets that much. Dach is a big centre which demands a premium that Quinn will not. I think I’d be most interested in moving Quinn if he was the “young player” component in a package offer for a good player, like the Chytil piece in the J.T. Miller trade.
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Pick #9 Not a lot of top 10 picks have been traded in recent years. In 2022, pick 7 was traded (along with a 2nd and 3rd) for Alex Debrincat In 2022, pick 13 was traded (along with a 3rd) for Kirby Dach In 2022, pick 13 was traded for Alexander Romanov and a 4th In 2021, pick 9 was traded (along with cap dumps and a 2nd) for Conor Garland and Oliver Ekman-Larsson In 2021, pick 12 was traded (along with another 1st, a 2nd and Adam Boqvist) for Seth Jones and pick 32 In 2021, pick 13 was traded (along with a 2nd and Robert Hagg) for Rasmus Ristolainen Matt Savoie, 2 years after being picked #9 for Ryan McLeod also works as comparable Going a little further back In 2017 pick 7 was traded (along with Tony DeAngelo) for Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta Jordan Staal, Jeff Carter were acquired for packages built around pick 7 and pick 8 Corey Schnieder was acquired for pick 9, straight across
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Thompson Tuch Peterka sports a GF% of 57.9 Thompson Kulich Benson is 55.6% Their most effective combo was Thompson, Kulich Peterka with 65.4% Best group in the league (minimum 200 minutes) was Fiala Byfield and Laferriere at 76.9% Some big name lines: Hyman Draisaitl McDavid 72.7% Knies Matthews Marner 61% Verhaege Barkov Reinhart 58.3% Lehkonen McKinnon Rantanen 55.6% Tkachuk Bennett Verhaege 44.4%
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Most people don’t expect Adams to make a big move because Adams. But there is no shortage of Sabre names in the rumour mill. This thread is a place where we can discuss some of them, what similar assets have been traded for in the past, and what we might expect in return. To me, Byram is clearly on the table, as is pick #9 and any of our pipeline players. I think we also have to consider the possibility of Tuch and Peterka being moved due to their value and contract situations. And I think Quinn, Samuelsson and UPL could be had due to last year’s poor play and the need to upgrade their roster spots.
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I mean, I'm interested in upping the veteran and hard-to-play-against quotient of our top 9. Rossi in, Quinn out does that. But I'm not sure Rossi in Peterka out or Norris out does that. I sorta feel like Rossi might be too much of the same. I like the player.
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Except exactly the opposite happened this year against bigger, tougher and more veteran Syracuse. Last year they lost in the 5th and deciding game against bigger, tougher and more veteran Syracuse, two years ago they won in the 5th and deciding game against bigger, tougher and more veteran Syracuse. They then beat a more veteran Marlies team, then lost in the final 4 to a more veteran Hershey team, although I'm not sure either of those teams were actually bigger and tougher. Three years ago, they beat Belleville and Utica teams that tried to goon it up, then lost a smaller, more skilled and more veteran team in Laval in the 3rd round. It's not been as neat and tidy and obvious as your story suggests.
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Is he a better player and/or cheaper contract than Peterka?
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I’ve yet to figure out why he’s available, but I don’t think you can ignore the rumours, or the way his coaches have used him. I don’t know that he fits the exact profile of what I’d be fishing for, but he’s a good player who fits the window and should improve our top 6.
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These are players potentially available that I’d be kicking tires on this summer: John Tavares: UFA centre, 34 Veteran leader, top-six forward, wins faceoffs, gets to the net, excellent on PP Has ties to the region and may look next door if can’t work things out with the Leafs Ryan Pulock: 5 years left at $6.1M, 30 Stout 2-way veteran, RH 2nd-pairing, kills penalties If the Isles are rebuilding, his is a contract they may want to shed for some futures. Has trade protection. Braden Schneider: 1 year left at $2.2M before RFA, 23 Big right-handed D, still developing but fits the prototype of rugged, stay-at-home type, fits our window Rangers in a cap crunch and he may be a price they will pay to get out of it. Would be part of a package including a bad contract, or involving one of our bigger names. Will Cuylle: RFA, 23 Big physical 2-way, emerging middle-6 winger, fits our window See Schneider Thatcher Demko: year left until UFA, $5M, 29 Legitimate top-10 goalie, coming off a bad year recovering from weird injury late the previous year Buy-low opportunity; Canucks not actively looking to move but uncertain future, right offer could change their mind I’d love to hear some of your targets Not really interested in “he’ll never go to Buffalo” or “no cap space” responses. Obviously, if players are coming in, players are going out. It’s up to Adams to sell the franchise and/or make the space. I’m looking for players who may legitimately be available that you think might help.
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Maybe it’s about expectations, and I’m glad to see his are high. Ive never seen Kulich as a “take over a game guy” at any level, in terms of “give me the puck and I’ll beat guys”. But I am seeing a guy right now who is reading the game very well, competing hard, and to me he does look dangerous. I thought Ryan Johnson was excellent last night and has been quietly good all playoffs. His game is Bill Hajt: blunt the rush, collect the dump-in, move puck to safety. He doesn’t create offence or hurt people, but at this level he kills plays. I thought he was overwhelmed as an NHL rookie. His feet are NHL, but his brain wasn’t. His processor has improved and he might be ready.
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I've always wondered how much this matters: the Gordie Howe/Ted Nolan magazines for shinpads path versus the "My parents have invested everything they could since the day I was 9" path.
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Sabres looking for Senior Advisor for Adams and Hockey Department
dudacek replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
Pretty much every conversation. Sometimes I want to talk about other things than what a total bitch my friend’s ex-wife is, even when I agree with him. -
Sabres looking for Senior Advisor for Adams and Hockey Department
dudacek replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
And in 2021? 2017? 2013? To be clear, you have jumped to a different conversation than the one between @JohnC and @tom webster that I was responding to: that conversation was about whether or not the current state of the Sabres is the inevitable result of not doing a thorough search for your leaders. -
Sabres looking for Senior Advisor for Adams and Hockey Department
dudacek replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
Terry’s record indeed speaks for itself. He is, however, the same guy who hired Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott and has left them alone. He is capable of getting his way, even if by accident.