dudacek

Tage weathered the truckloads of crap dumped on him by internet tough guys as the return for the O'Reilly trade, a skinny frame that shot up 8 inches in three years, a cancer scare from his wife, a devastating shoulder injury, demotion to the minors, and Ralph Krueger to transform himself into a physical specimen and a 38-goal scorer. Then he took the backlash of too much, too soon against his big contract and responded with 47 goals and 94 points. Never once whined or pointed fingers His career has been the definition of heart. What's obvious is your dog don't hunt.

Not saying this is you, but your post sparked a thought from a few days ago. It feels like a lot of people have an unrealistic expectation of turnovers when it comes to hockey. Maybe it's a football fan thing? It's not exactly incorrect, but sometimes seems too simplistic to me the way it's used. Hockey is game of constant turnovers. As in they happen multiple times for both teams every single shift. You can and should limit them, but you can't hope to eliminate them. The Sabres gave up 2 goals on egregious turnovers Saturday while at the same time doing an excellent job of limiting the amount of turnovers over the course of the game. You could say the turnovers cost them the game, but what really cost the Sabres the game was Tampa executing on what few turnovers they got, the Sabres not getting a big save following those turnovers, and the Sabres failing to force enough Lightning turnovers or execute on the ones they did. Not saying the Sabres are good at defence, or can't be improved. But generally speaking the ineptitude of the Sabres team defence feels overstated this year, especially recently.

Small sample size, and against some weak teams, but the Sabres are allowing 1.75 goals per game in the 8 games since the calendar turned. That's good for 3rd in the league. Taking it back to Dec. 1 — 23 games — they're at 2.96 good for 13th. And that number is swollen by the 9-goal Columbus debacle. I don't see people recognizing it in the game day threads, but my eye test supported it in the Tampa and Vancouver games. They're clearly better at defence than they were a year ago. They just haven't improved enough to make up for the fall-off in offence.

Interesting to see that the fancy stats are matching my eye test in terms of giving us a chance. But the fancy stats don't consider that moderately consistent, but rather extremely consistent. 🤔

38 goalies have played 20 games this year. He ranks 14th among them in GAA and 14th in SV% To my eyes, he whiffed in the 5-1 loss Dec. 13 to Colorado, the Nov. 11 6-4 loss in St. Louis and the Nov. 3 5-1 loss to Philly. All 3 of those games the team got off to terrible starts and he didn't have their backs. His other 17 starts he's been good enough to give his team a chance to win. To me, his play this year qualifies as the "good enough" goaltending most of us did not think he was capable of and were hoping Adams would step outside the organization this summer to acquire. Really interested to see if those trends continue this morning. This is the kind of moment in the season where UPL historically would serve up a dud. I wouldn't call it a defining moment, more of a signpost, but significant nonetheless in his bid to shed that 'inconsistent' label.

He's pretty clearly stated as much, IMO, and current actions back it up. it's a patient, long-view approach, and as much as most of us look at this as year 13 of failure, i think he perceives it (or at least wants to) as a year 3 stumble after years 1 and 2 of growth and exceeding expectations. I expect any reset is going to be largely supplemental: he's going to stick with his philosophy — and probably most of his pieces, so long as they remain on board with his philosophy — until he succeeds or is fired.

This is sidestepping?

I have a ton of respect for Don Granato. I want him to succeed. I believe this team has more talent than its record shows. Is it just a matter of time, or the right chemistry move flicking the switch? Or is one of my premises wrong? Should this be a case of keeping Jared Bednar or of flipping Bruce Boudreau for Rick Tocchet? I just don’t know.

Absolutely. But I think we’d agree that the variable is whether or not we can trade Casey for, say, Charlie Coyle, or some other “now” player you might think we need more. If the market is offering up some version of Devon Levi and Jiri Kulich, I’m going to stick with Casey, thank you very much.

“Earned” is subjective, but that is the going rate. Deciding whether to spend it on Casey, or on a Jacob Markstrom, or on 3 Will Borgens is how the GM earns his pay cheque. The rest of your post is hyperbole as well. Adams has created a long-term cost-certainty: none of his core players with the exception of Tuch will be up for raises in the next 6 years as the cap grows by sizable chunks; none appear to be on immovable contracts. He will have the ability to pick and choose whether to use that space on outsiders or reward homegrown talent, or trade away pieces to accomplish both. The tough choices won’t be coming until Tuch comes due around the same time you hope Benson or Quinn takes leap Signing Mitts to market value now handicaps him in no way shape or form. The only issue is whether or not his current level of play is a mirage, the way the level of play that “earned” Cozens his deal has been so far.

Hyperbole, but even if he was, he's not a good contract comparable. Contracts are usually very much about points, at least at their starting point. Coyle signed his deal at 28 partway through the final year in a string of 37, 34 and 37 point seasons, where he most recently was probably the Bruins 5 or 6 forward, and wasn't ever going to approach the artificial cap the $6 million trio of Bergeron Marchand and Pastrnak were being underpaid at Mitts will be signing at 25 coming off seasons of 19 (40ish*), 59 and 70ish*, where he most recently has arguably been the Sabres #1 forward, and isn't going to be taking a significant discount from his $7 million peers Cozens and Thompson — who signed after and during 68-point seasons, respectively. Mittelstadt's best comparable will be 50-70ish point RFA 3rd contract forwards in their mid-20s getting top 6 minutes signing in the past year or two. You're looking at guys like these: https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2024/caphit/all/forwards?signing-status=rfa&arbitration=eligible&contract=standard&extension=yes&stats-season=2023&limits=age-24-27,points-40-130,signingage-24-27

The question was a legit attempt to see where Sabrespace applies blame, for what is a team that certainly isn’t better than last year’s but maybe isn’t much worse either. @DarthEbriate seems to think Adam’s dropped the ball for not acquiring the correct pieces. @sabremike skirts the roster question but sees a team that he thinks looks worse than it did and blames the coaches. From reading the site, I know other are blaming the players. (Pretty much every one of them except for Quinn, Peterka, Benson and Ryan Johnson. You know, the one who haven’t been around long enough to get too disappointed in)

They are 18-20-4 and 7 points out. Given the roster, what should their record be? (Last year on Jan. 13, they were 20-18-2, 6 points out.)

Valid, but the people doing the framing here aren't you and I, they are Pegula, Adams and Granato. I was framing my take in the context of their stated path and goals.

Patience? You have to wonder about the coaching. Their lack of focus, connectivity and consistency is often the mark of an inexperienced team. It’s also the mark of a poorly-coached team. I guess if you’re Adams and you believe Donnie still has the ear of the room, the leadership skills to get these players back on the rails, the technical chops to course-correct his system, and the balls to revamp his staff you can be patient. I guess if you’re Pegula and you that believe Tuch, Thompson, Power, Dahlin, Cozens, Samuelsson and Levi are a legitimate contending core and worthy of the investments Adams has made in them, that he will eventually leverage his considerable depth of young talent into the proper supporting cast, and that his draft-and-develop policy is the correct path despite the bumps on the way, you can be patient. Especially if you remind yourself that you wanted an attacking team and that Benson, Peterka, Quinn, Krebs, Johnson, Power, Levi and Luukkonen — more than a 3rd of your roster — has played less than 200 NHL games. Really though, it’s about the core. If you like that group of players, you should be patient, because if they turn things around, the team will inevitably turn with them. But if you don’t believe in the people and principles Adams believes in — the players and the culture he has chosen to be the pillars of his rebuild — then any patience is a waste of time. Which is both sad and scary. Sad because I actually liked this group in a way I never did the previous few. Scary, because it inevitably means another push of the reset button and three more years just to get back to where we were in September.

As far the state of the franchise goes, I think Sabrespacers are missing the mark when they continue to hone in on inconsequential, peripheral issues like 3 goalies, 11/7, Kyle Okposo’s presence, and whether they should play Johnson or Johnson. I, and I think many of you, felt this team was promising because it was loaded with explosive firepower. The most pertinent, significant issue this season is why the heck is this team 22nd in offence? This team is built to score. Sure it needed to get better defensively in order to contend. Sure it hasn’t done that. But that isn’t why they aren’t good. They aren’t good because they can’t seem to outscore their mistakes any more. What has happened to this team’s identity? The central question surrounding the team is not whether Adams has failed to accumulate the proper supporting cast, it’s about whether he has constructed a legitimate core. Because it’s the core that is letting us down. I wonder if (hope that?) this team came into the season on a misguided mission to change the way it plays, in the process stopped doing what it did well, and when the failures, the injuries, and the pressures started to mount, it got stuck on a painful treadmill of second-guessing itself. I also wonder if what we saw from Tuch/Thompson/Skinner/Cozens/Dahlin/Power/Samuelsson last year was not the promise of what is to come. Rather, it was some lightning in a bottle, never to be repeated.

It’s because this place has become like hanging out with a bunch of recent divorcees complaining about their ex-wives. And before PA jumps on me for telling people how to be fans, people have every right to say what they want to say and plenty of reasons to be disappointed. Just like I have every right to choose not to engage. I come here for good, provocative writing, fresh, insightful hockey takes and sharing in our mutual love of the Sabres. You’ll probably see more of me when this team starts inspiring more of that.

I think you kinda answered me without directly responding to my question: you think Adams is generally conservative when it comes to trades and that fuels your belief he won’t make a significant move prior to the deadline. Which overlaps, but isn’t at all the same as Adams is generally against making in-season moves. I think that over the past year, Adams tendency has been targetting low-cost complementary pieces to fill the pieces around the blinding light of his home-grown core: Jost, Greenway, Stillman, Johnson, Clifton…and Kane (his big name aside) would have fit. The fact he missed out on Kane tells me he certainly would still add a winger if he can get one at a Greenway-level price. But I doubt the overall pattern will change until his core proves lacking. And I suspect 20 games of .500 hockey is far from the proof he’s going to need.

The point of interest to me is whether or not you think Adams has a default position of reluctance when it comes to making in-season moves that is significantly different than that of his peers.

Not sure why you seem so strong on this being a particular Adams trait. First of all, it is a general NHL trait that very little player movement occurs league-wide between the start of the season and approaching the trade deadline – largely because of the salary cap and the fact teams are so tight against it. Secondly Adams added Tyson Jost (as well as Greenway and Stillman at the deadline) last year and Christian Wolanin, Alex Tuch and Peyton Krebs the year before. His previous season was COVID hell. And he apparently wanted to add Patrick Kane this season. To me, his track record looks pretty typical for NHL GMs in terms of his approach to in-season moves. This is hardly Botterill and the CHL.

Maybe he watched them play this year.

This is not correct. Adams confirmed his interest on the record to Pierre Lebrun last week at the GM meetings. “Yeah we are a team that checked in on him once he became a free agent, and we asked them to keep us posted and that’s what they’ve done,” Sabres GM Kevyn Adams said. “We’ll see where it goes from there.” @tom webster is 100% correct the Sabres tried and failed to get him. The need, the hole in the roster and the space under the cap would have made the intent obvious even if we didn’t have that report. He may not be 100% correct on the conclusions of his post, but his track record pretty clearly shows he’s got a contact and a brain, and his conclusions are fair comment based on what he’s seen and what he’s been told. Kane could have come here. He chose not to do so.

The Sabres sit at 9/9/2, 3 points out of a playoff spot and 19th overall. They are 25th in goals for and 15th in goals against They are 5/5 at home and 4/4/2 on the road and have won back-to-back games just once. Good developments: Secondary scorers Casey Mittelstadt and JJ Peterka have stepped up Jordan Greenway has been effective adding strength and good defence to the middle six Erik Johnson, Ryan Johnson and Connor Clifton have been a notable upgrade over Bryson, Clague and Lyubushkin EJ, Greenway and Tage Thompson have keyed a much improved PK Ukko Pekka Lukkonnen (5/3/1 2.71 .914) has provided competent NHL goaltending Bad developments: 30-goal scorers Thompson, Alex Tuch and Dylan Cozens have 16 goals combined. The bottom 6 of Olofsson, Greenway, Krebs, Okposo, Girgensons and Benson has 8 goals combined. They've been outscored in first periods and scored 1st just 8 times (6/1/1) The power play is at 13.5% - roughly half last year’s pace. Devon Levi has just 2 starts over .900 and 5 under .890 It’s simplistic, but one could make a case that the Sabres record can almost entirely be chalked up to their bad power play. Seven of their losses have been in tight games where a key PP score would have made a difference. Turn 2 of those into wins and they’re in the playoffs. Consensus around here seemed to have been that if this team added some depth on defence and got average goaltending this was a playoff team. The first two things have happened but the 3rd hasn’t followed. I think that by and large, that’s because too many players handpicked by management to be central pieces of this team - Thompson, Tuch, Cozens, Okposo, Krebs, Power, Samuelsson Levi - have not been nearly as good as they have previously shown or as the team wants and needs them to be. Is it that because they’re still transitioning to a more defensively responsible style? Coaching? Self-imposed pressure? They aren’t that good to begin with? A mix of all of the above? I think this team can and should be better. But those identity games they were building last year - the games where they just keep coming regardless of the score - have been lacking, as has the fearlessness that fed them. There’s still time.

In what way? Jost has 2 points to Krebs 1, a 43% Corsi to Krebs 52%, 35% on faceoffs to Krebs 49%. Their hits, blocks, giveaway and takeaway numbers are similar, as is their usage. Neither are helping the team right now.

Am I wrong to think a healthy Benson has generally been more useful to the Sabres this year than Okposo, Krebs, Rousek, Jost, Biro, Olofsson and, for the most part, unfortunately even Cozens? Unless there are reinforcements coming sooner than we expect (Quinn, Thompson, outside the org), I’m keeping him. Dont give a ***** about 9 games. He can go down if and when he’s not one of our 9 best forwards.