dudacek

I wonder if Lindy is going to roll the clock back to 1999 and deploy: Byram Dahlin like he did Zhitnik Smehlik Samuelsson Kesselring like Warrener McKee Power Timmins like Woolley Shannon Keep in mind they behave as if they like Timmins and Samuelsson more than we do. Adams mentioned putting Byram with Dahlin and “you can have a different pair of bigger shutdown guys”. Adams also talked earlier about wanting a guy for Power who was “safe with a lot of clean puck touches”. To me that sounds a lot more like Timmins than it does Kesselring. Probably guilty of overthinking things, but it’s something that crossed my mind.

I think you are wise to point out that Kesselring isn't exactly a shutdown D; I've fallen into that trap myself as recently as a few posts up. I think he's better described as a very large, competitive, mobile late-blooming defenceman who is better than average on both sides of the puck and just coming into his own as an NHL player. Speaking strictly for myself, I noticed him without looking for him when he played: he was assertive and effective and enormous. He looked pretty physical to me, not running around looking to kill guys physical, but winning battles physical, clearing the crease physical and smartly finishing checks physical. And I think he fought 5 times last year. That aspect of his game looks nothing like Power. He covers a lot of ground and has a huge wingspan. Scouting reports from those who have watched him more often – fans and pros — seem to match my eye test, and the analytics numbers and counting stats are both solid. Not entirely part of my point, but as an aside, I'm not as sold as everyone else seems to be that he's going to be Power's partner.

Kadri would be an excellent fit to this roster. I think Byram is a more valuable asset in a vacuum and I think a one-for-one is just filling one hole by opening another. In conjunction with another complementary move though, it’s well worth exploring.

I already gave my feelings about the Sabres off-season as a whole - that at best they’ve maintained themselves as a 79-point team. These are my opinions individually on their moves so far: Signing Jones: I guess I like it on some Intellectual level - you can’t have too many defencemen - but honestly I don’t care much who the stopgap 8 is. Maybe he still has some untapped upside, but really I don’t see this player ever being more than a tweener. Especially as an offensive puckmover on a team that doesn’t really need any right now. Signing Lyon: This was a solid move. In a market bereft of goalie talent, adding a guy capable of hot streaks and of being a tandem starter for back-up money felt like a bit of a coup. He’s nothing special, but he’s competition that is capable of actually being competition and better than what I thought would happen. Re-signing McLeod: I expect some regression from McLeod, but this is a good contract for a good 40-point 3C, especially with the rising cap, and he could give you more. Glad they’ve locked him up for his best years. Signing Danforth: I like the player and I also like that we added the type of player in terms of both his work ethic on the ice and his underdog mentality off it. He’s a go-to-the-net forechecker on a team that needs more of that. Maybe we’ll get the 4th line right this time. Trading Lafferty for a late pick: I think he’s a better player than we saw, but he was completely useless last year and clearly wasn’t Ruff’s kinda guy. Just clearing the salary and the roster spot was a win. Signing Geertsen: guy sounds like a total plug on the ice and I don’t care. Glad that he’s available the next time we need someone with that specific set of skills. Re-signing Johnson and Kozak: good, no-risk moves as far as I can see. Great value if they make the NHL, no damage if they don’t. Not qualifying Bernard-Docker: He’s probably not as good as he played down the stretch and I understand the logic in how Adams explained it. I’d shrug my shoulders if I thought they were going to spend to the cap. But they won’t and you can’t have enough defencemen. Pennywise and pound-foolish. Re-signing Quinn: The dollar value was a little high for 2 years and I might have pushed for a 1-year prove-it deal, but there’s a chance this could be a home run if Jack plays to his potential. With Cozens and Peterka already out the door, he’s the last best hope for a skilled scorer in the system. He’s got a lot to prove. Trading Clifton and a 2nd for Conor Timmins: I almost drove off the road when the friend I was with read it to me off his phone. My immediate reaction was “we traded one ***** defenceman for another ***** defenceman and we gave them our 2nd pick? WTF?” I now understand the cap and analytic reasons why this trade was made. I still won’t like it until I see Timmons play significantly better than Clifton did and I see the Sabres put the cap savings to good use. If somebody took Lafferty for free, why not Clifton? Why not use the 2nd to trade for someone better than Timmons? I still hate this trade. Trading Peterka for Kesselring and Doan: I’ve warmed to this one after an immediate reaction of “that’s it?” Trading skill with the puck for effectiveness without it was my goal for the summer. Using Peterka as the best way to make it impactful was my strategy. I’m willing to gamble on the concept of what we got over the concept of what we gave up because it was the type of trade we needed. It becomes a clear win if they use the reality of the extra cap space, but I’m not confident they will. What they haven’t done: I wanted them to move skill for will and add a goalie, which they’ve done in some form. I also wanted them to reshape the D-core by moving on from Clifton and Samuelsson and keeping Byram. One yes, one no, one work in progress. Instead, they moved on from Clifton and JBD, kept Mule and got their shutdown RHD at an unexpectedly cheap salary. And finally I wanted them to move some futures for some immediate help. They’re still set up to do exactly that once the Byram situation plays out. It will be incredibly frustrating if they don’t use all the resources at their disposal to make that happen. But it’s what they’ve taught us to expect.

That’s what some people concluded at the time because they wanted to believe Cozens and Norris had equal value and that made them feel better about the trade. Subsequent events have shown Gilbert and JBD were inconsequential filler and the trade was basically Cozens and a 2nd for Norris. Reports out of Vancouver indicate the Sabres added the 2nd to outbid the Canucks who were aggressively targeting Norris. Those same reports also indicate that the 2nd may have not been necessary because the Sens liked Cozens better than any of the individual pieces in the Vancouver offer. Again, none of this suggests Adams made good decisions in the Norris trade, the Timmons trade, or the JBD qualifier. Just helping you point your wrath in the proper direction.

Not sure why it’s easier to believe Adams is too stupid to know the the rules than it is to believe he’s too stupid to judge the difference between Timmins and JBD. I’m not aware of other examples of him screwing up the rules, but I’ve seen plenty of bad player evaluations. This is right in line with “Clifton is worth $10M over 3 years, and Beck Malenstyn is worth pick #43. As others have said, few of those who elect arbitration ever get there; they usually select it to force the other side to get serious about negotiations, so they can avoid it.

Can he still sign an offer sheet after the Sabres choose arbitration? Because I wonder if his camp is actually angling Adams towards arbitration deliberately because they aren’t getting an offer sheet. Bear with me: the goal of Byram’s camp is to get him a high-dollar long-term deal in a place of Bo’s choosing where he can be “the guy”. Plan A Tell the Sabres you aren’t signing a long term deal and try to orchestrate a deal that matches the above goal. For now, that still includes the possibility of an offer sheet and the risk the Sabres will match. Plan B Failing that, manipulate the Sabres into paying Bo maximum cash for minimum term that either walks him directly into unrestricted free agency 2 years from now, or puts him in the driver’s seat for arranging a trade next summer to the team of his choice, like Matthew Tkachuk. Having the Sabres file for arbitration now does exactly that.

Byram’s decision means he still sees a path to a trade and/or a more favourable contract this summer that arbitration may have closed. What I’m not clear about is whether or not he can still sign an offer sheet if the Sabres elect arbitration. If he can’t, then I’d think the Sabres would want to go that route, meaning they’ve got him locked up next year while still being able to trade him if they wish.

I don’t see this as the “gotcha Adams!” some people seem to. Are people surprised Timmins filed for arbitration? Do people think Adams is caught off guard Timmins filed for arbitration? They walked away from JBD because they did not want to pay him what they think he might get in arbitration. They acquired Timmins because they’re probably willing to pay what he might get in arbitration in the context of dumping Clifton’s salary. Timmins didn’t file for arbitration because he doesn’t want to be in Buffalo, he filed for arbitration because it increases his leverage negotiating how much he gets paid in Buffalo. It’s about player evaluation and the business of hockey. The choices may end up working out the way they foresee, or they may not. But there’s no surprises here.

Did not realize this. Do we know if the Sabres face the same deadline to take Bo to arbitration? And does that also remove the threat of an offer sheet?

Personally, I don’t think Adams “wants” to trade Byram. I think he is legitimately open to the idea - mostly because Bo is not signing for term - but he has a year before he has to cross that bridge and isn’t going to pull the trigger if he doesn’t like the offers. I wouldn’t call all this smoke a charade, more like an attempt to move the player at the “right” price. ”Just sign him then” isn’t that simple because that takes two and it’s not what Byram prefers. At some point a deal will be made, or other GMs will get tired of talking. If it gets to the latter, Adams will tell Byram’s camp that it’s time to talk contact, one side will file for arbitration and Byram will officially become a Sabre again some time in August. Then, Adams may or may not pull the trigger on whatever may be left on the trade market with his leftover cap space. Not expecting to be whelmed, let alone overwhelmed, but to answer the thread question, I kinda expect Byram on the roster and one more “meh” forward add.

Other fancy stats from Lyon last year: Goals saved above expected: 32 Save % above expected: 32 Wins above replacement: 32 Rebounds per save: 37 Lyon’s totals with the Wings were exceedingly average and don’t appear to be significantly different from James Reimer’s with the Sabres. But they were clearly better than UPL’s.

UPL’s struggles in high danger situations aren’t new. Going back to the previous season - when he ranked 17th in goals saved above expected - he was still 58th in high-danger situations. The stats show he can succeed behind a better defence, but he has not shown that he can be counted on for too many big saves. Interestingly enough, the number 6 and 7 ranked goalies in high danger save % above expected that year were Alex Lyon and Devon Levi. Lyon was 4th and Levi unranked in that stat this year.

Another somewhat under-discussed issue with last year’s team was goaltending. At risk of triggering @PromoTheRobot, Ukko Pekka Luukkonen was bad across the board, even while correcting for the play in front of him 61 goalies played 20 games last year, UPL ranked: Goals saved above expected: 51 Save % above expected: 48 Wins above replacement: 51 Rebounds per save: 46 High danger unblocked save % above expected: 58 Interestingly, UPL’s rankings were better at low- (35th) and medium- (20) danger saves. We had a team that allowed too many dangerous attempts combined with a goalie who was bad in high-danger situations.

Diving deeper into other Sabre high danger rankings: Rebound shots for 27th Expected rebound shots for 19th Rebound shots against 28th Expected rebound shots against 21st Rebound goals for 22nd Rebound goals against 32nd High danger shots for 27th High danger shots against 21st I mean, we knew it, but it’s worth seeing it spelled out: the Sabres biggest problem 5 on 5 is they don’t get to the net, and they don’t stop people from getting to the net.

I was curious to see what the fancystats said about the team as a whole last year, since those are supposed to paint a better picture of how “true” a team’s record is: GF%: 50.14 16th xG%: 47.41 27th SA% 49.77 17th The Sabres were pretty much dead average in terms of territorial play, and at putting more pucks in the net than the other team. They were absolutely terrible at getting the puck into high danger areas while stopping the opponent from doing the same.

Following up on this. I see Adams in his post-July 1 presser saying something like "If you but Bo and Dahlin together maybe Lindy wants to go with a big shutdown pair". So Samuelsson/Kesselring is something that is on the table.

I don’t see any evidence of that, do you?

Actually the plan looks pretty clear based on what they’ve done, at least so far: navigate the contract minefield of this off-season without significantly increasing the payroll or getting too much worse. He’s probably pretty happy with the results so far.

I tend to use top, bottom and middle six for guys who can be either and whose slot depends on circumstances: Peyton Krebs can and did put up legit 3rd line numbers last year, but you’d rather have him on your 4th line so I’d call him a bottom-sixer. Jordan Greenway put up 4th-line numbers last year, but his all-around toolkit and per-game production is pretty clearly above that, at least to me, so I’d call him a bottom-sixer. In Doan’s case, he was a 3rd-liner already last year based on production, but he didn’t say he was a middle-sixer, only that he has the potential to be. There’s nothing inaccurate about that when it comes to what Doan has done in his first two years pro. Really though, these things mean different things to different people so it probably moot.

Well, Malenstyn did play 10:30 a night last year, by far the lowest of the leftover Sabre regulars I think its inevitable that fans be skeptical of most things the Adams regime does because of their track record. In terms of the 4th line, I wonder how much of last season was chicken and how much egg: did Lindy limit their usage because their play was disappointing, or was their play disappointing because Lindy limited their usage? Lafferty's play surprised me. I liked his game as a Canuck, and he seemed to be a decent, energetic role player in his other stops. He was a non-entity here — he didn't play like I remembered him playing — and I have no idea why. My expectations of Danforth this summer are kinda like my expectations for Lafferty last summer; that's who he's been, albeit maybe for a shorter period of time. My expectations for Aube-Kubel were less. He'd never been a fulltime skater anywhere else and he wasn't young. Sometimes those guys land in the perfect spot and reel off a decent year. More times they don't. He didn't. Doan is not like the others. He has excellent grinder qualities, but he's not some longshot minor league vet persevering on the margins of the NHL. He's a legitimate NHL prospect with a higher-end toolbox: a former high 2nd-rounder entering his 3rd year pro. I posted this previously along with the note that Doan is two years older: Career pro stats Kulich NHL GP: 63 15/9/24 Doan NHL GP: 62 12/16/28 Kulich AHL GP: 123 53/41/94 Doan AHL GP: 104 40/38/78 There's an upside with this one

It sure sounds like Adams has an in-demand asset with a high number of suitors who don’t have a number of alternate options. It also sounds like Byram has a gifted agent who is almost certainly using his clients Unsigned status to manouvere talks in Byram’s preferred directions? This is where Jarmo’s 30 years in the business have to come in handy.

I think what we are feeling is the hangover of having such a rich selection of prospects this time three years ago and few of them hitting the way we had hoped. We now have a more typical group of prospects and wonder if the previous group didn't do anything how the hell will these guys?

The Sabres are on record as thinking he will be worse than Radim Mrtka. It will be interesting to see how that quote ages.

Can’t argue, haven’t seen him play. But he played 25 NHL games for a coach named Lindy Ruff, who used to use Andrew Peters 5 minutes a night, 50-odd games a year. He now coaches a team that has a reputation for not being able to handle the rough stuff, has no one like that in their system, and just signed Geertsen to a contract. I have a feeling we’re going to see this guy this year. What you predict, or what you prefer?