dudacek

Oddly enough (and probably surprising to some) the most effective PKer of the Sabres regulars last year was Owen Power. He allowed 6.18 PP goals against per 60 Clifton 8.08 Byram 9.68 Samuelsson 11.83 were the other guys with over 100 minutes. Timmins had more then 100 minutes at 6.92 Kesselring didn’t qualify. League median would be about 7.8

When you’ve failed as regularly and consistently as the Buffalo Sabres have you don’t get the benefit of the doubt. Especially when your signature off-season move is trading the remaining bright jewel in a fading collection of young forwards for a couple of unproven and unheralded young support pieces. There’s a general consensus among hockey-watchers that general manager Kevyn Adams is in over his head and a growing concern that the game has passed venerable coach Lindy Ruff by. This was the often disorganized team that allowed more goals than all but three NHL franchises last year and attacked that problem by bringing back a struggling starter who lost his net down the stretch, along with its entire failed coaching staff. This was the immature and fragile bunch who responded to a perceived lack of veteran savvy by adding 4 skaters who average 140 career NHL games among them. Last season crashed on the rocks of a 13-game December losing streak where Ruff openly acknowledged his players where not who he had thought they were, Adams failed to react with any significant action, and goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen broke under the strain. The rest of the year basically served as an audition where Ruff attempted to sort through what worked and what didn’t and Adams began the process of re-setting, specifically jettisoning perceived building block forwards Dylan Cozens and JJ Peterka from a group that had shown so much promise just two years before. The Sabres aren’t without talent, and that starts on the blue line, where Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Bowen Byram, Michael Kesselring, Mattias Samuelsson and Conor Timmins are as toolsy as any NHL starting six in terms of size, skill and skating ability. But other than Dahlin — who has truly become a world-class blue liner — it’s an unproven collection of talent that has largely failed to realize its potential on an individual level. Perhaps Kesselring, the key piece in the Peterka return, can be the missing piece to unlock the group’s potential? Scoring goals hasn’t been a problem for this iteration of the team, but there is the question of whether that will remain true with the departure of Peterka, an offensive finisher and driver who was not replaced. With Thompson’s move to wing likely permanent, how will they fill the hole at centre? Certainly Thompson is an elite goal scorer and Alex Tuch a legit all-round power forward, but will Ryan McLeod and Jason Zucker repeat their excellent seasons? Can the talented Josh Norris stay healthy enough to be an upgrade over Cozens? Will any of the gifted but callow group of Zach Benson, Jiri Kulich, Jack Quinn and newcomer Josh Doan take a step? Is there enough ‘hard-to-play-against’ in the depth collection of Beck Malenstyn, Peyton Krebs, Jordan Greenway, Tyson Kozak and 30-something addition Justin Danforth? Luukkonen was excellent in the back half of 2023/24 to earn the starter’s net and the contract to go with it, but faltered badly down the stretch this season after being unable to stop the bleeding in December. Newcomer Alex Lyon is a battler and a viable stopgap, but he’s not the answer. Devon Levi might be eventually, but he wasn’t last year and seems almost certain to start the season in Rochester. Uncertainty in net has been an Adams trademark since he let Linus Ullmark walk in his rookie season. Statistically the Sabres got some of the league’s worst goaltending last year, but it’s hard to fully blame the goalies when their environment was so awful most of the time. So much of goaltending depends on the skaters – forwards and defensemen — making good decisions with the puck and adhering to the structure of the system and the Sabres were among the league’s worst last year in terms of allowing high-danger chances. Can the roster tweaks combine with a year of coaches and players adjusting to each other yield significant defensive improvement? Is the collection of talent in the crease enough to take advantage if they do? The Sabres are apparently counting on it. Sure, it does seem like the Sabres have made some incremental improvements in areas where they needed it: roster construction, grit, defence. But incremental is incremental, and incremental is not what is called for when you need to make up a 12-point playoff gap, especially in the wake of two years of decline on top of 12 years of relentless, pulverizing losing. What it all adds up to is that — in a market bereft of it — the Sabres seem to once again be pinning their improvement largely on hope. And in the words of their most veteran skater, Zucker, hope is a ***** strategy.

Finding ways it could work is kinda what I do around here and I hope I never get to the point where that stops. I don't agree with all the nuance above, but I absolutely agree with the overarching theme. I wrote something a few days ago trying to capture my pragmatic view of the off-season. I was going to use it as a thread-starter, but I might as well post it here because it fits..

I don’t really care about top-loading a 1st line, or a traditional hierarchy, just give me lines that can win their matchups.

I don’t think there’s any way to argue the Sabres didn’t look like a poorly coached team last year. It’s the thing most likely to hold them back this year and the reason I think the most likely outcome of the season is a mid-season bloodletting of the brain trust. The decision not to do it in April will likely not only cost the team this season, but also the next few as the new regime restarts the painful (and what should have been unnecessary) process of rebooting the core.

We want the team to be better defensively and harder to play against, right? Here are some statistical comparisons (all #s 5-on-5, green=Sabres got better, red=Sabres got worse) Cozens/Norris TOI: 17:04/18:21 DZone starts 10.8% /15.4% Shot attempts against per 60: 60.56/60.94 xGA per 60: 2.89/2.63 Hits: 187/124 Blocked shots: 35/34 Takeaways 12/9 Faceoffs 52.1%/54.6% Peterka/Doan TOI: 18:11/13:31 DZone starts: 10%/8.7% Shot attempts against per 60: 61.53/47.66 xGA per 60: 3.0/2.0 Hits: 27/45 Blocked shots: 14/14 Takeaways: 18/10 Lafferty/Danforth TOI: 9:53/14:23 DZone starts 11.4%/13.8% Shot attempts against per 60: 57.82/60.44 xGA per 60: 2.55/2.64 Hits 84/125 Blocked shots: 16/31 Takeaways 5/7 Faceoffs 50.4%/50.5% Jokiharju/Kesselring TOI: 17:50/17:41 DZone starts 10.7/9.06 Shot attempts against per 60: 54.79/55:07 xGA per 60: 2.54/2.35 Hits 44/82 Blocked shots: 44/65 Takeaways 12/20 Clifton/Timmins TOI: 16:03/16:55 DZone starts: 11.9%/9.2% Shot attempts against per 60: 63.39/56.56 xGA per 60: 2.79/2.5 Hits: 180/55 Blocked shots: 81/79 Takeaways: 23/11

I'm very much in favour of adding a reliable veteran top six forward. I was just replying to @Archie Lee's hypothetical. That said, like @Weave I'm not sure Mittelstadt fits that profile. And I think you are missing out on the reality that there is internal competition. Of course I'd rather have another Norris-level player in that 4th forward spot and push somebody into the press box with Malenstyn. But look at what they do have. Everyone acknowledges Norris, Tuch and Thompson as top 6 forwards, but they forget that Jason Zucker and Ryan McLeod were both reliable plus players who each played 16 minutes a game and topped 20 goals and 50 points. I know you disagree, but by objective statistical measures, they were legitimate 2nd liners. There is one spot up for grabs in the top six and at least three high-pedigree young players — Kulich, Benson, Quinn — competing for it. Maybe Doan makes four. You do only "need" one of the group to break out. If two of them bust out, you are pushing a legitimate 2nd-liner on to your 3rd line. And McLeod and Zucker aren't just going to hand over their ice time. To me, that looks like the definition of internal competition. Taking it a step further: Danforth, Krebs, Greenway and Doan are 2-way players who all played 3rd line minutes last year. Add in two of Kulich, Quinn and Benson and you get 6 players fighting for 3rd-line minutes and three guys capable of 3rd line minutes on your 4th line. Again, that looks to me like more internal competition. And it also looks like depth. I'm not saying this group is good, or even good enough. I am saying there is enough depth and internal competition to give the coach options. The fact of the matter is, you don't even need any of these players to break out statistically. Their production from last year adds up to a playoff-calibre offence. You need them to take care of their own zone. Let's hope the coaching staff gives the ice time to the ones that do.

There’s little doubt Mitts is the most proven player, but it would be very hard for me to predict which one would help the Sabres most this year. As bad as Jack Quinn was last year, he probably had a better season than Casey and I think he’s got a higher ceiling. What’s more likely: Kulich taking a step offensively or Casey defensively? Because there is no doubt the Sabres need the more reliable player. Not sure what happened to Casey this year because he’s better than what he showed. But how does a player go from +12 in 60ish games in Buffalo to -12 in 60ish games in Denver to -17 in 18 games in Boston? I mean he’s certain to bounce back with a career year with the Bruins because Boston, but in Buffalo?

There’s little doubt Mitts is the most proven player, but it would be very hard for me to predict which one would help the Sabres most this year. As bad as Jack Quinn was last year, he probably had a better season than Casey and I think he’s got a higher ceiling. What’s more likely: Kulich taking a step offensively or Casey defensively? Because there is no doubt the Sabres need the more reliable player.

1) Luukkonnen: This team is 10 points better if he returns to the form he showed two years ago 2) Power: Analytically, the most obvious flaw in the Sabres lineup is how they lost any matchup when Dahlin wasn't on the ice. Swapping Timmins poise for Clifton's juggling hand grenades should help, and Kesselring's competence and physicality should help more. But Power has the skillset to be carrying one of those guys, rather than counting on them to be the boosters. He needs to start earning his paycheque. 3) Norris: Jiri Kulich and Ryan McLeod could be a viable 2/3 centre spine, but no team is going to make the playoffs with them eating all the hard minutes at centre ice. Norris isn't a 1C, but he can certainly hold the fort in ways the other two can't, particularly stapled to an top winger like Tage or Tuch. Getting 75 games of his full potential dramatically improves our depth and playoff chances.

I realize 'the board' isn't a entity unto itself and I'm not saying this is you. But it's bizarre to me that "the board" complains consistently that the Sabres don't backcheck and don't get to the net while at the same time wants no part of Doan or Benson in the top 6 and wants to bury Greenway on the 4th line. It's a fallacy to say this is the same forward group. Doan, Danforth, Greenway and Norris —1/3 of the starting lineup — combined for 37 games last year for the Sabres. Maybe there is a problem with how they are being coached to play, but the player personnel up front is much better suited for they type of game they need to play than it was.

This is nearly 20 years ago, but I found it very interesting in terms of how Lindy used his players https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20052006&seasonTo=20052006&gameType=2&position=F&playerPlayedFor=franchise.19&sort=timeOnIcePerGame&page=0&pageSize=50

Lafferty and Aubé-Kubel were failures, but I think it’s fair to say they were attempts. It will be interesting to see how Lindy allots ice time: is the 9 or 10 minutes the 4th liners got down the stretch the way Lindy likes it, or is a reflection of the available players being those guys as well as Östlund Kozak and Rosen. Danforth got 14:23 and Doan 13:31 last year with their previous clubs

Gradual change can be hard to recognize. Doan and Danforth will get 12 to 15 minutes a night and are very good at forechecking and getting to the net. Along with Tuch, Benson Zucker Greenway and Malenstyn they represent 7 of your 9 wingers. Pure perimeter guys like Peterka, Olofsson, Skinner and Mittelstadt don’t play for the Sabres any more. You’re right to say show me, but the push over the last year or two has been consistently in the direction of getting better in this area of the game

Not arguing that snarl doesn't matter: it does. But doesn't size have other benefits that have nothing to do with snarl? Strength is strength that usually comes along with size, and that can be an advantage, regardless of snarl. But more importantly, length is length: bigger guys make bigger obstacles in terms of getting sticks on pucks and diverting attackers wide.

Structure and system is ultimately dictated by the head coach. Assistant coaches assist with design and implementation they don't dictate it. The most obvious recent example here was when offensive assistant Granato took over for Krueger and dramatically changed the way the team played.

Sorry for the confusion. Those represent actual difference in inches of the six starters combined. So the Sabres on average are a 1/2 inch taller than the Bruins and 2 inches taller than the Senators.

I'm a little confused. According to this, the Sabres starting 6 averages of 6'3.67", more than 2 inches above the NHL median for defencemen. Just running through some quick math on the conference, the Sabres are: Tied with the Devils 3 inches taller than Boston 3 inches taller than Florida 3 inches taller than Tampa 6 inches taller than Toronto 6 inches taller than the Rangers 8 inches taller than Detroit 9 inches taller than Philadelphia 11 inches taller than Carolina 11 inches taller than Washington 12 inches taller than the Islanders 12 inches taller than Ottawa 13 inches taller than Montreal 13 inches taller than Columbus 16 inches taller than Pittsburgh I don't know if it means anything, but it does seem pretty notable

I absolutely did, but I wasn’t trying to be disingenuous about it. This was a “look at how big their starting six is, and look at how many other big guys they’ve been collecting” post. I read a lot on here about the Sabres needing to forge an identity. This defence corps - on paper at least - seems to have one: big and mobile.

Kesselring, Dahlin yes Power no Samuelsson Timmins not really Byram sorta? Bedkowski, Kleber, McCarthy, Novikov, Komarov yes? Strbak, Mrtka sorta?

Real shift at the top of the Amerks lineup: Murray, Jobst, Clague and Rousek represent veteran stability and 4 of the teams top 6 scorers. One of Bryson or Zach Jones should replace Clague on what seems a stable blueline. But up front new faces Leschsyshyn is a checker and Geertsen a thug. Carson Meyer will probably get top 6 minutes, but it looks like more responsibility for Neuchev, Wahlberg and Helenius as the team pushed them to take a step in the top 6. Östlund should continue in the 1C role he grabbed after Christmas.

Not sure there is a bigger collection of defencemen in the league right now than what the Sabres have, both on the ice and in the pipeline. Power 6’6” Kesselring 6’5” Samuelsson 6’4” Timmins 6’3” Dahlin 6’3” Byram 6’1” Mrtka 6’6” Kleber 6’6” Bedkowski 6’5” Novikov 6’4” Komarov 6’4” McCarthy 6’3” Strbak 6’2” Is this intentional? Does it matter?

Thank you. So much this. What matters is ice time: who the coach leans on most and in what situations, full stop.

I see a lot of people gravitating toward a "1st line" of Benson/Kulich/Thompson that we saw a lot of down the stretch. I picked March 15 as a bit of arbitrary start date as the first game Norris missed — thinking he's the guy who will be effectively replacing Peterka in the top 6 — and tracked Benson's numbers: He was 6th in ice time for forwards at 16:02 per game after Tuch, McLeod, Thompson, Peterka and Zucker, in that order He was 9th among forwards in points, with 5 in 17 games and did not score a goal He was 5th among forwards in shots with 31 He was tied for 7th in GF% at 50% He led the regular forwards in possession at 54.2% The Sabres went 11/5/1 over those 17 games, outscoring their opponents 65-58.

There were 5 goalies UPL's age and younger who played 40 NHL games last year. He's played three NHL seasons: one below average, one good, and last year, where he lost his mojo in the December losing streak and sucked afterwards. Personally, I'd bet against him, but development-wise, he's in a similar career spot to Jack Quinn and Owen Power: young enough that we're still not sure what he is, old enough that it's time to ***** or get off the pot.