dudacek

I still think Benson is the best choice to complement Norris and Tage: netfront presence, passing, puck possession, puck retrievals, defensive zone coverage - he’s got proficiency in areas the other two lack and he’s got enough untapped offence that he won’t slow them down in that area. Doan might work for similar reasons but I think he’s not as smart or skilled. Same with Greenway. Quinn is plenty skilled but too similar to Tage in his approach and too lacking in the off-puck areas. Kulich is too similar to Norris. Tuch would make for the strongest line, but that would expose vulnerabilities elsewhere. Zucker might work nicely.

After the “core four” I see three groups of three battling for ice time and to carve out a specific role for themselves. The third group is the easiest to identify: Krebs, Danforth and Malenstyn, the energy guys. These are the role players who will typically get 4th line minutes and bump up the roster to keep the rest honest. Think Mair, Gaustad Group 2 is the scorers Zucker, Quinn and Kulich who will battle for PP time and offensive opportunities. Think Dumont, Afinogenov And group 3 is the “hard-to-play against” group of Benson, Greenway and Doan who will battle for shutdown time and the dirty work with skill guys. Hecht, Grier. Im really curious how much scoring we can get from Group 3 and how much defence from group 2 - I think rounding out their games will be key to their ice time, and how Lindy will mix and match in terms of lines and deployment. I see those 6 with more or less equal opportunity to fill out the top 9 in myriad ways based not only on how well they play, but what kind of identity Lindy wants to establish. Some will sink and some will swim.

Oh I would have. I’m a Sabrespacer, we know better. 😜

I am real curious about what Lindy’s plans are for this group of forwards, if it’s indeed what they start the season with. I don’t think there is much debate about Thompson and Tuch being our top 2 forwards and the guys who are going to top the ice time charts. And Lindy seemed to make it clear down the stretch that he prefers Thompson on the wing, which is probably going to put these two on different lines. It was made pretty clear when they acquired him that they intend to lean on Norris heavily in a top 6 role. Whether that’s with Tage as in his brief trial, remains to be seen. And for all the Kulich chatter, Lindy playing McLeod 19 minutes a night as he registered a point per game makes it pretty clear who his other top centre is. It’s possible McLeod ends up centring a “3rd” (checking) line of some sort. But personally I think he and Tuch will be a hard-minute pairing on the “2nd” line deployed like the Drury line back in the day, while Tage and Norris are the first choice in offensive situations. Regardless of lines, I think it’s pretty clear these are the four guys starting at the top of the depth chart in terms of ice time.

If I was coaching any member of this defence corps I would be entirely comfortable saying “you’re not a kid anymore, you should know better by now”

I think you missed my point: accusing me of hiding something I specifically pointed out myself is odd. I have no problem with your opinion on games played. I agree it is a flaw in the composition of the defence corps. That’s why pointed it out.

I stand by my point: they are not grizzled veterans, but these are also not boys getting their first exposure to pro hockey. Physically and mentally, for the most part, they are men.

That seems an oddly inflammatory response to a post that specifically said

UPL has an .898 career save percentage and was .910 2 years ago. Last year he was .887. The league average was exactly .900. Statistically speaking, his play was a significant factor in the Sabres poor record. Statistically speaking, based on his track record, we should expect him to be better this year. Im kinda expecting Lindy to treat him like the unquestioned starter in camp and out of the gate this year - 6 or 8 starts in the first 10 games and give him a chance to run with it. But I get the feeling that the belief in him is forced and his leash will be short if he drops the ball

I’ve said it earlier, but I think the team will sink or swim with this defence corps and how close each player performs to the concept of what they could be. In terms of tools, this group is upper-echelon - there aren’t many this big, and there aren’t many this mobile. The skill level is off the charts. The questions are twofold: can they defend, and can the coaching staff unleash all that talent? I foresee Timmins getting 15 minutes a night as Power’s base partner, mostly against lesser lines. If you listen to what Adams said he was looking for in a Power partner, it sounded a lot more like the safer Timmins than the more aggressive Kesselring. Situational play and shortened benches will have Power up around 22 minutes. Dahlin and Byram (24 and 22 minutes) will be the top ES pairing. And Samuelsson and Kesselring will get 17 and 19 minutes respectively, often against bigger forwards. As a group they are exceptionally inexperienced in terms of games played, but at the same time there aren’t any rookies here, or neophytes needing to be sheltered as they learn the league. This is Dahlin’s 8th year as a pro, year 7 for Timmins, the 5th for Kesselring, Byram and Samuelsson, and #4 for Power. They’ve been around the block, experienced their share of adversity and are at the point in their careers where it’s time to ***** or get off the pot.

Reimer -> Lyon Clifton ->Timmins Jokiharju -> Kesselring Peterka -> Doan Cozens -> Norris Lafferty -> Danforth

I’d add balance/chemistry/roster building or whatever label you want to put on a well-rounded team. Part of why I was in favour of a Peterka trade well before it happened was because he was the biggest chip we had toward swiftly addressing that. I have no idea if Doan and Kesselring are part of the solution, but the concept of them certainly is.

Talent is not this team’s core problem.

I think anyone watching knows how often plays died on Cozens stick and structure broke down because of it.

As well-considered and rational as this is, what we should find amazing is how few hockey players seem to think this way. What do retired players say most often when looking back at their careers? It’s how much they miss the room. Hockey culture is peculiarly tribal and the team has a talismanic quality, a reverence drilled into players from the first time they put on skates. “Have each others backs” “the crest on the front not the name on the back” “this stays in the room”. Belonging is a crucial psychological element in the indoctrination. Once established it can be hard to shake. The typical player does not maximize his earnings over a series of short-term deals and highly leveraged negotiations, he chases security and term and signs for a home-town discount before ever hitting the open market. Even in such a “toxic” situation as Buffalo you get: Luukkonen 5 years Thompson 7 years Samuelsson 7 years Power 7 years Cozens 7 years Dahlin 8 years You don’t think Zucker could have got his deal somewhere else this summer? Or Greenway? Ryan McLeod just signed on for 4 more seasons. People are constantly throwing out “no one wants to be in Buffalo” And yet… Im not suggesting that none of the above decisions were free of business considerations. I am saying that it is actually crazy how frequently those considerations can take a back seat to loyalty, the desire to feel needed and the need to belong.

Fantastic post. (Doesnt apply to JJ Peterka in the slightest, but I digress 😘) You’ve taken my post in a very different but thoughtful direction. I was musing at the executive level: I think Bylsma won a cup mostly because he’s lucky and Zito mostly because he’s good. I think most GMs and coaches are smart; they have to be to reach the apex of a highly competitive profession. I think the smartest coaches and executives are in the NHL but the 64 in the NHL aren’t the 64 smartest. How good do they have to be to win? How bad do they have to be not to have a chance? Because at some point they’ll be facing the very best. What is the Jay Feaster line and where are Kevyn Adams and Lindy Ruff in relation to it?

I just listened to a podcast of Rick Tocchet talking hockey, not in front of post-game media crowd, or on a intermission panel, but honestly breaking down the game nerd-fashion with a couple other hockey nerds. I’ve listened to Donnie Granato and other pros in similar settings and it gave me the same vibe. My takeaway in general is that the pros are by and large not the idiots fans make them out to be. They get where they are because they’re smart and they’re passionate. My Habs fan buddy always talks about pissed off he’d get with Marc Bergevin. And then he’d listen to him explain himself and 10 minutes later he’d be “wow, that totally makes sense! We’re gonna be fine!” it really makes me curious as to how overmatched our brain trust really is.

Maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t this what usually happens? It’s never the teams that win the offseason, it’s the teams where enough things go surprisingly right. Maybe UPL has a career year like Logan Thompson, Krebs comes out of nowhere like Protas, Kesselring is the missing ingredient like Chychrun, Quinn takes a leap like McMichael and Norris isn’t the waste he appeared to be like Dubois. I mean the miracle of 14 years is that even the sloppiest franchises seem to back their way in at some point.

Both can be true and probably are. As far as Buffalo goes, it’s kinda Deja vu all over again. Instead of crossing our fingers that Cozens, Krebs, Peterka and Quinn can buttress a legit middle six, we’re doing the same for Benson, Doan, Kulich and Quinn. Maybe Norris, Zucker, McLeod and Greenway are better insulation than Mittelstadt, Skinner, Olofsson and Okposo? Or maybe hope is, once again, the strategy in Buffalo

The Tage thing was more for sake of discussion than literal. That said, I’m not really a “top six” kinda guy when it comes to lines. I think Doan is skilled enough to be the grinder on a skill line if needed. Forgive me if you’ve read this before: Kulich AHL 123 53/41/94 Doan AHL 104 40/38/78 Kulich NHL 63 15/9/24 Doan NHL 62 12/16/28 Kulich was the 28th pick in the 2022 draft, Doan the 37th a year earlier. The popular wisdom that Kulich is way ahead of Doan isn’t reality. They’re at similar levels in their development.

The trade off is will Doan bury Tage rebounds, or feed him off the cycle the way JJ did not? Will Samuelsson be able to be more assertive closing his gap because he doesn’t have to worry about JJ’s man being uncovered? We all know we had to get better at prevention and that we’d likely have to sacrifice offence to do so. Its what they’ve obviously tried to do.

One thing Peterka is elite at is rush offence and his departure is going to be felt because his skill set fit perfectly with the strength of our team, the backline transition skill. The game Scenario I posted up thread illustrates it perfectly There’s no way it doesn’t blunt Dahlin and Power’s breakout passing giving those passes to Doan instead of Peterka. Similarly, there’s no way Tage doesn’t get fewer rush opportunities if it’s Doan feeding him. Bht that works both ways: Ian Cole isn’t going to hit JJ in flight like Byram would and Nick Schmaltz isn’t going to bury pucks like Tage.

The context was Perreault’s post. The part you bolded is me disagreeing with his numbers on his terms. The part you considered extra was me framing the argument in my own terms, the terms I think are relevant And I’d apply that argument against your assist argument as well. For example. JJ Peterka’s assist would not exist without Byram forcing Marner to rush his shot so UPL could make a clean save directing the puck to Dahlin’s corner where he quickly flipped it to Tuch who happened to be exactly where he should be and fed it to Peterka streaking up the opposite boards who took the D wide and dropped it back to a space created by Byram rushing the net for Tage who beat Woll with a perfect wrister. Every player on the ice contributed, not just Peterka and Tuch with the assists.

Why did Dylan Holloway jump from 6 goals and 9 points to 26 and 63 last year? Nothing in his resume suggested that was coming. Who expected Tage Thompson to suddenly erupt with 38 goals when he did? Five years ago thinking Gustav Forsling the best D on a cup winner? Yeah, right. Player performance can be as much about opportunity and circumstance as it is skill.

I’m not sure how this is much different from my post you disagreed with. Honing it down to simply goals scored by Peterka and stopped by Kesselring is dramatically oversimplifying how hockey works. .