dudacek

He's not and has been RW for 90 per cent of his shifts this calendar year. Could be a factor of what's best for Kulich, but I think RW is where Lindy wants him. Now Tuch/Thompson might be the best RW combo in the league, but the idea of betting on 2 of Norris (1 season above 35 points) McLeod (1 season above 30 points) and Kulich (1 season, 22 points) seems, umm, a tad optimistic?

Sabres picking 9th at the moment. Last night probably means they won't finish in the bottom five

He's been fantastic. Makar gets the Norris, no questions asked, but I think objectively the next three this year have been Werenski, Hughes and Ras. It's a shame the Buffalo stink will probably rob him of his first post-season all-star team spot, which will go to a less deserving candidate like a Morrisey or a Bouchard because their teams are more successful. I see fan bases touting guys like Sanderson and Seider, when their numbers aren't even close.

While I think his development has been incredibly frustrating at times and in no way should he be counted on above a bottom 6 role next year, I commend Krebs for turning himself into an NHL hockey player. He’s committed to the team and to his teammates. His production (tied for 234th among NHL forwards) is that of an average 3rd liner. He’s 86th among NHL forwards in hits. His +/- is even and his FO% a tad above 50%. He used to constantly turn the puck over, but his giveaway per 60 rate has improved just behind Benson and Thompson for 4th on the club among forwards - 112th among the 358 NHL forwards who have played 50 games. He seems to enjoy contact and has improved in terms of winning battles. He’s conscientious about picking up his man and skates hard on the backcheck and the forecheck. We’ve seen signs that his muffin of a shot has improved. He brings energy most nights, and has just enough skill to fill in with skill guys if needed. He’s kinda become that Swiss Army knife #10/11 you plug and play where needed. That James Patrick quote really resonates when I think about Krebs: “the league tells you what kind of player you are”. It seems to me that Peyton started off with the wrong idea, but he has listened and worked hard to transform himself into that player. Is he important? No, but he is useful and one of the few Sabres who has improved this year.

Found it. Was a screen shot of a website that doesn’t indicate the source. And it was 90.91% Corsi and 100% xGF for the entire line. The xGF % was so high because they did not register an xGA. Extraordinarily small sample size.

Oh I probably got it wrong, or the source did. Shouldnt have posted off memory when I didn’t even look to closely.

Peyton Krebs also is 3/5/8/+8 during this 7-of-8 heater. Easily the most productive stretch of his career and also the definition of a small sample blip.

Saw somewhere that his analytics were almost perfect last night. Over 90% SAT and 100 xGoals?

So sad looking at the standings. How long have we waited for the Bruins to fall? And the Penguins joined them. And the Rangers fell apart. And we sat on the bench and watched Ottawa, Montreal and Washington seize the opportunity. What a waste.

I think this may be the first time I’ve typed these words, but Sam Lafferty looked good today. No one ever talks about him because he’s been such a non-factor, but my god has he been a disappointment. I was actually happy when they signed him after watching him last year in Vancouver. Today he looked like the player I thought we were getting.

I’ve seen plenty of games where the Sabres have gotten off to a good start and then it becomes real obvious how much better the other team is over the 2nd and 3rd. Haven’t been many times I’ve seen the shoe on the other foot. That was one bad Boston team. The production still isn’t there; he’s gone 0/4/4/+2 on this 7 wins in 8 games heater. But the eye test says hell ya, and the analytics back that up - he leads the team with a 55.8 SAT% over that stretch and with 56.3% on the season. It’s so weird how with so many kids you see the offence and you say ‘don’t worry the D will come’. He’s one of the only guys I’ve ever seen show the D first.

It's not really about 'the higher the pick, the better the odds' though. Math says that's self-evident. What the math doesn't account for is the actual picks in a very specific sample size: scouts having the foresight to choose Makar at 2, or Suzuki at 8, instead of letting them slip 4 and 13, respectively. Or the odds that you're going to avoid the Cody Glass and Lias Andersson type picks in the top 10. What is doesn't show is that in any given draft, the odds of getting a true difference-maker between 4 and 10 aren't that great and they aren't really a function of where in that range you pick. In the 2010s, these are the "stars" picked in that range: 2010: the best player taken was Jeff Skinner at 8 2011: Zibanejad, Schiefele, Couturier and Hamilton went 6, 7, 8, 9 2012: Morgan Rielly and Hampus Lindholm at 5 and 6 2013: Jones, E. Lindholm, Monahan, Nurse, Risto, Horvat and Nichushkin 4-10 2014: Nylander at 8 probably the first actual star taken in that range so far this decade. Next two that year are probably Ehlers at 9 or Bennett at 4. 2015: Marner at 4, Werenski at 8 and Rantanen at 10 were the cream 2016; Tkachuk and Keller at 6-7 were the cream here 2017: with Makar and Pettersson at 4-5 we have our first examples of a team actually benefiting from being at the top of this stretch 2018: Hughes at 7 and Tkachuk at 4 are the studs. 2019: Seider at 6 is the guy and one of only 2 studs taken in the entire top 10. I'm sorry, but historically it's a bit of a dart board. And that doesn't even account for the cultural questions created by a team "trying to lose", particularly one as infested with losing as this one. Nope, learned my lesson. I'll take the wins. even in garbage time.

One problem that doesn’t get talked about a ton is what happens to the logjam that’s developing in the pipeline? In a typical organization, a 21-year-old 1st rounder who put up a point per game in the minors is almost certainly being given a shot to play on the big club next year. Same goes for a 23-year-old 1st-rounder being leaned on as your farm team’s shutdown D. In a typical organization, they’d be plugged in to replace a Zucker type mid-6 UFA winger and a Jokiharju-type bottom-pair UFA blueliner as capfriendly contracts in sheltered roles where they hopefully develop into real contributors. That’s just how the NHL typically works in the cap world. Does anybody actually want Isak Rosen and Ryan Johnson, or players like them on the team next year? How long before those guys stagnate? How long before they - and guys like Levi and Östlund and others - start to chafe behind them because there are just no opportunities for them on a big club that is already too young? The Sabres need to flush the system with a few more Savoie/McLeod trades, and find a Reinhart-for-futures type deal they can be on the right side of. That includes moving young NHLers out of the Peterka/Quinn/Benson/Kulich/Byram/Power/ Samuelsson/UPL group. Time to start behaving like a real NHL team.

The draft just seems so ***** random anyway. #1 Nico Hischier #2 Nolan Patrick #3 Miro Heiskanen #4 Cale Makar #5 Elias Petterson #6 Cody Glass #7 Lias Andersson #8 Casey Mittelstadt #9 Michael Rasmussen #10 Owen Tippett Gabe Villardi, Martin Necas, Nick Suzuki, Josh Norris and Robert Thomas all went in the next 10 picks. Mittelstadt is 10th most productive player from that draft. The top 9, in order, were picked: 5, 4, 1, 39, 20, 13, 12, 121 and 3. In 2018, it goes: 7, 4, 2, 1, 10, 12, 14, 141, 3, 49 In 2016, it goes: 1, 6, 39, 7, 162, 2, 3, 66, 35 After what we’ve been through I am surprised anyone around here can still get themselves behind losing for high picks as a strategy.

Streaks are relevant. Seasons are more relevant Body of work is most relevant. It’s true whether you are talking about James Reimer, Jack Quinn or Kevyn Adams. If our decision-makers are basing major decisions mostly on the past 10 games at any point in the season, we’re lost anyway.

He’s got that quietly reliable in his own zone thing going so far, at least by the eye test. Lindy’s run out today’s D pairings in 6 of the past 7. The one time he didn’t Dahlin got sick and that was the one loss. In those 6 games: Dahlin 2 5 7 +7 22:37 Samuelsson 1 4 5 +6 20:26 Power 0 2 2 +1 18:40 Bernard-Docker 1 2 3 +3 14:23 Byram 0 2 2 +6 21:41 Clifton 0 5 5 +6 20:20 (Somebody hide this post from @Thorner 😬) Looks like it would be a mistake to say Docker has elevated Power; they seem to be the 3rd pair. No one should be particularly surprised that Dahlin has elevated Mule, but the success of Byram Clifton is an eyebrow raiser. Fancy stats paint a different story (includes the Philly loss) Dahlin 44.2% Samuelsson 34.9% Power 44.6% Bernard Docker 40.3% Byram 42.6% Clifton 40.8% All of these guys are below their SAT rates for their year during this hot streak.

Curious how often the top 2 lines were out against the Point line. I remember them pinning the McLeod line in the zone but I don’t know if that matchup was something that was out there consistently. Lindy seems to be rolling out the current line mix with the idea they’ll lose the battle to the opponents top line and win on the next two. Entertaining game.

I’m not talking about the pathetic current run of the Buffalo Sabres. Never brought them up. I’m talking about the Boston Bruins and their ability in my lifetime to avoid the types of down periods that have afflicted most other franchises.

Not sure how you are defining this, but I’m looking at it as “extended periods of mostly missing the playoffs.” And in terms of that definition Boston has been an outlier. In our division alone: Florida: missed 16 of 18 prior to 2019 Toronto: 9 of 10 prior to 2016 Montreal: 6 of the past 9 (though they did have a COVID miracle run in there) Ottawa: about to change after 7 straight misses Detroit: 8 seasons and counting Tampa 5 of 6 prior to 2014 The last time the Bruins missed more the twice in a row was the early ‘60s.

I'm actually kinda fascinated about this. They are largely bereft of both prospects and young players with upside. H. Lindholm, McAvoy, Zadorov, Pastrnak, Zacha, and E Lindholm are all good NHL players; do they add around them or use them to fuel a reset? How? On paper, it's easier to see this roster bottoming out than climbing back into contention. But the Bruins mystique has taught us to believe they wont be down for long. Really curious to see if the mystique is real or just a factor of the enduring power of the 2011 core.

Further to the injury discussion: At the trade deadline the Sabres invested nearly $17M in 3 forwards for next year: Norris, Greenway and Zucker. They have combined for 21 of a possible 39 games since. The have also combined for 2 goals and 5 assists and a -7. Lucky we don't believe in paces from small sample sizes any more.

Too soon because...? 2022 draft 11 Conor Geekie 49 games played 12 Denton Mateychuk 37 13 Frank Nazar 49 14 Rutger McGroarty 5 15 Jonathan Lekkerimaki 23 16 Noah Östlund 0 17 Joakim Kemmel 2 18 Lian Bichsel 32 19 Liam Ohgren 28 20 Ivan Misochenchenko 39 First round picks are usually getting a taste of the NHL in their D3 year. Östlund is literally one of 6 in his class who have not. For the record, I would like to see him on one of the top lines with Kulich sliding out of the top 9.

Leone (to Duff and Marty) is of the opinion Östlund has a skill set that allows him to slot in on any style of line. Called him a bit of a unicorn that way. He has the energy, fearlessness and defensive acumen to play effectively with Lafferty and Malenstyn.

To be clear, this isn’t really a “look” or a “reward”. This is more a “our 2C and our 6C are hurt and our best centre is playing wing to support the look we’re already giving our best centre prospect, who’s next man up?”

One would think that finding playmaking winger or two to take advantage of the way Tage, Kulich and Norris can shoot (and Quinn, Peterka and Tuch for that matter) should be an off-season focus. I mean I guess I number of those guys can also pass, and that's also the hope for Benson, but its certainly skewed. I'm again struck by what a perfect fit Mitch Marner would be be in the off-season.