dudacek

I personally can't recall a situation where a single stat has been used to whitewash one player at the expense of all other stats. To a ton of people the only things that matter about Bowen Byram is that his expected goal numbers away from Rasmus Dahlin are considerably lower than with him and worst-case scenarios about his contract. His actual goals for and against, his overall numbers, how dominant he has been with Dahlin, the quality of his other partners, how other partners do with Dahlin, how he compares to other 23-year-olds getting 1st pairing minutes, the amount of 1st-pairing minutes he effectively eats, the block shots numbers, the hit numbers, the even strength scoring numbers — irrelevant. It's the worst case of blinders I can recall about a player on here since the old "Sam Reinhart is slow and falls down too much" days.

Cherry picking of one stat might give people a skewed view of things. Unless you believe expected goals are more important than real goals.

Some of us like to entertain ourselves by analyzing and 'fixing' the roster.

I'd rather pay Byram $7.4M than Mule and Clifton the same. I realize its not that simple. But keeping the overpaid bad players instead of overpaying the good one seems pretty Sabres-y

Inevitable reminder that Dahlin Byram was already the most elite pair in the NHL this year by a wide margin — even with UPL in goal — and nobody cares.

🤷‍♂️ In a league where 1/2 the players are below 50%, 45% and 48% seems like the definition of adequate to me.

This is what I've been thinking about a lot as well. The Sabres need to be better defensively, but they are able to outscore that when they get good goaltending. Replace 2025 UPL with 2024 UPL and we're in the race, in my opinion

Jokiharju 26% O, 56% D. That seems to combine his Boston and Buffalo play, but it doesn't explicitly state that. Bryson is 17% O, 3%D, 2nd-worst ranked skater in the Atlantic Division, ahead of only Ryan Reaves.

In theory you can if you identify low-cost, high-value defence-first players like this model thinks of JDB. In practice you are probably right

I really think the Athletic player cards do a good job of illustrating the Sabres issues on defence: Dahlin Value: $12.3M * Cost: $11.0M * Offence ranking 99% * Defence ranking 90% Byram Value: $5.3M * Cost: $3.9M * Offence ranking 69% * Defence ranking 48% Power Value: $4.7M * Cost: $8.4M * Offence ranking 62% * Defence ranking 45% Samuelsson Value: $2.1M * Cost: $4.3M * Offence ranking 21% * Defence ranking 46% Clifton Value: $0.8M * Cost: $3.3M * Offence ranking 30% * Defence ranking 13% Bernard-Docker Value: $4.2M * Cost: $0.8M * Offence ranking 42% * Defence ranking 60% Dahlin is an absolute stud, Power and Byram are positive players (good offensively, adequate defensively), Samuelsson is adequate defensively and bad offensively and Clifton stinks The problem is we have one good defensive defenceman and two starters who aren't good on either end. (I'm not sure about those JBD numbers). To me this shows an obvious solution: invest the $7.6M we pay Mule and Cliffy into two guys who are above average defensively.

Why not both?

We probably shouldn't ignore the fact Kulich got 9 assists, often playing with the league's best goal scorer and is a year older than Benson. D3 seasons of 1st-round Sabre forwards: Reinhart 79 17/30/47 -11 Eichel 67 25/39/64 -25 Nylander 12 2/2/4 -4 Mittelstadt 31 4/5/9 -2 Cozens 79 13/25/38 -19 Quinn 74 14/23/37 -7 Kulich 62, 15/9/24 -4 Benson ??? And just because I noticed him: Power 76 6/27/33 +8 He's right there with Sam Reinhart in terms of the 2nd-most advanced guy behind Eichel. That +8 really sticks out. Something to think about.

Not sure exactly where you’re aiming on this one. Luukkonen is a 3-year NHL vet with 8 years in the organization and not a prospect at all. Levi is a far better prospect than UPL ever was. He was a dominant college goalie and has been a dominant AHL goalie. UPL had an an excellent 19-year-old year as an OHL MVP and WJC star, but was exceedingly mediocre in the minors, to the point there were regular threads on here with posters calling him a flat-out bust who would never be an NHL goalie. If you mean will Levi pass him soon on the actual Buffalo depth chart, I think he will, but the Sabres can not count on that happening next year. They’re goalies, so who know? Kulich is the best prospect/skater currently on Rochester.

I agree with @Thorny that the degree of negativity around here an inevitable manifestation of the team's performance. I agree with @7+6=13 that it has made this a less enjoyable place to be.

Me too. He's one where you'll almost certainly see GMs hand wave his issues because "Buffalo stink" And they might be right. I still think Mule and futures can get you an overpaid vet from a rebuilding team.

Nope Im implying that there are a ton of unemployed GMs out there who meet the requirement of ‘sat in the chair’ who wont be as picky as Lou. And probably won’t be the guy to get us out of this mess either.

Lysowski with Jeff Marek last month was worth a watch. Starts around the 17-minute mark.

Gross: 38.5%, but their xG% was 69.3% in 133 minutes Samuelsson and Power was 51.9 real, 40.2 xGz% in 317 minutes.

And then it hit me: what if this is exactly what is happening? What if the leaked shuffle was exactly the original plan: Kevyn failing upward and Karmanos moving into the GM chair? And then the plan fell apart because either Karmanos or Terry decided Karmanos wasn’t the right fit for whatever reason? So they pivoted to bringing in “a senior advisor” with the understanding that he would transition into GM and Kevyn to POHO in the near future. Basically, Kevyn leads him through the organizational learning curve, including the draft and free agency. New guy provides his input to shape the plan and finesse through some moves while Terry watches closely and overcomes his trust issues. Its not unheard of in hockey circles. Doug Armstrong and Alex Steen are doing it right now in St. Louis. It certainly fits with the shuffle and Karmanos rumours, and with what we know about how Pegula and Adams operate.

But what about Randy Sexton? John Chayka? Doug McLean? Jay Feaster? Maybe you’re just looking in the wrong pile? 😜

See if I’m Boston, I look at a trade built around Byram for Lindholm given where the team is in terms of age and cycle. Don’t know that the Bruins will be looking to rebuild though, more likely reload. I’m confused. You dont think he’s getting traded?

I think with most of those teams you’d be talking trades, not offer sheets. I think the Filip Hronek trade (1st and 2nd in the mid teens) is a good comparable for Byram’s value in terms of picks. And really in terms of contract as well, once you add in capflation. This is the type of deal I see the Sabres chasing, either directly, or in 2 parts (like Mitts/Savoie for Byram/McLeod). They will bring in a more defensively oriented, slightly cheaper guy ready to play in the top 4 and kill penalties). It might not be a vet, more of a McLeod type. Think Braden Schneider.

I think it will be larger due to contract and chemistry situations. There are lots of teams who will see him as an upgrade to their current #3 over the next 7 years. Guys like Byram aren’t available that often. GMs will be fishing to see if they can make it fit.

Here are my biggest fears about not firing Adams now: You don’t get a fresh face in to deal with the looming Tuch, Peterka and Byram situations A new guy has a much better chance of convincing these guys to stay under a fresh regime than Kevyn would under a sinking ship. A new guy has less pressure to move these guys in a bad deal than Kevyn would under a sinking ship. Allowing Kevyn to fumble and fail now before getting fired at Christmas cements a desire in the heads of Dahlin and Thompson that its time for them to move on. Valuable development time for Levi, Kulich, Benson and Power is squandered in a toxic dressing room. Basically, I think there’s an opportunity cost to waiting. The longer you wait, the bigger the mess the next guy has to clean up: bigger cracks, depreciated assets.

It reeks of Kevyn, I want you to hire your replacement. Sounds like a great recipe for success. “More changes coming” More? That implies there have been some.