dudacek

Levi is the only other one I'd consider and he does goalies separately. Mrtka 17, Helenius 52 and Östlund 72. Savoie was 53 for anyone who still cares.

So basically two shifts in the model: you used actual player games missed histories instead league averages. you didn’t adjust for typical growth/decline patterns. And we still can expect an offence in the league’s top half without Greenway and Norris getting healthy. Interesting. Maybe there’s more there than it appears.

Of course not, he’s actually saying the opposite. He saying there’s no simple direct correlation between JJ’s goals and wins and losses. There’s a butterfly effect with every move: Maybe Tage slumps to 25 goals without JJ Maybe Power explodes for 60 points with Kesselring Maybe Rosen takes JJ’s slot and scores 28 goals too, but with better defence Maybe Benson and Kulich don’t score any more than this year, and with elevated minutes are even worse at defence than JJ was.

I loved the old model, big crowd, families, watching the power brokers all in one room. Sure it could have been tweaked into a better broadcast, but the format was unique to hockey and something I looked forward to. A lesser carbon copy of the NFL draft sucks.

Thanks for this. It matches my impression of how Terry has operated the Sabres under Adams. It always seemed to me that Murray got fired mostly for runny a sloppy organization that embarrassed Terry, and Botterill for running a bloated operation that he refused to prune. Their results played a role, but were secondary. Adams steers the ship in a way Terry feels comfortable with and results have been secondary. And that is a failure that is fully on Terry. All the other stuff we complain about — culture, interference, spending — probably has some basis in fact, but it doesn't matter as much as we think. What matters is Kevyn Adams hasn't identified, acquired and developed a good enough team. Period. Full stop. Kevyn thinks he's smarter than he is.

I always go back to my signposts: Forwards generally break out — basically become who they are — in their 3rd or 4th season, after 200ish NHL games. Defenceman take a little longer Peterka (3rd year, after 161 games), McLeod (4th year, 217 games) and Krebs (4th year, 214 games) followed the model last year. Right now, the Sabres have the following players as candidates Byram 246 games, 5th year Power 242 games, 4th year Quinn 178 games 4th year Kesselring 156 games, 3rd year Benson 146 games, 3rd year I'm not expecting a fully formed Doan (62 games, 2nd year), or Kulich (63 games, 2nd year) to appear yet.

Another way of looking at is seeing how individual Sabres scored without the puck: Dahlin 90% Kesselring 81% Benson 73% Tuch 71% Timmins 59% Jokiharju 56% McLeod 54% Byram 48% Krebs 47% Samuelsson 46% Power 45% Thompson 44% Malenstyn 41% Danforth 40% Norris 39% Greenway 27% Kulich 26% Lafferty 19% Zucker 16% Quinn 16% Clifton 13% Cozens 8% Bryson 3% Peterka 2% For some reasons they don't have a Doan card, but reports say his play without the puck is a strength of his game. It seems pretty clear that roster has improved in this area, at least as measured by this metric. Also, the fact the Sabres had just 5 players among the top half of the league last year in this metric seems pretty reflective of their need to improve.

From the article: It’s a weighted combination of their production (goals, assists, expected goals, blocks, penalty differential) and their play-driving (on-ice expected and actual goal stats), adjusted for difficulty (quality of competition and teammates). The cards also show each player’s market value based on total contributions. The cards showcase both offensive and defensive ratings. I just showed the defence.

Random factoid: Josh Doan played with Owen Power as teenager with the Chicago Steel.

🤷 I read it as Kesselring is really good without the puck, Jokiharju was better defensively than people say, and the other guys we moved on from were really bad.

I have no idea how to quantify that the way I tried with the goals for potential. In terms of in/out with the skaters this is what the athletic model has to say about their defensive impact: Peterka 2% -> Doan (not ranked) Cozens 8% -> Norris 39% Lafferty 19% -> Danforth 40% Jokiharju 56% -> Kesselring 81% Clifton 13% -> Timmins 59% Not even sure how the stat (I believe it is a percentile relative to the league) is calculated, so take that for what it is worth.

Interesting. And one of them was the Sabres, 293 wasn’t it? Im inclined to agree with you if I was a betting man. But after doing this I also think it’s not out of line to believe this team is capable of overcoming the loss of Peterka’s goals. Scoring 19 goals? No. Being a positive player? Yes

I ran a bit of inexact model that tries to project what kind of offence we could reasonably expect from the current lineup. I took the three-year average of each player, added a % to the U25 kids who have yet to break the 250 game mark (Power, Byram, Kulich, Doan, Benson and Quinn) and subtracted a % for the vets who have passed their peak and the age 30 threshold (Danforth and Zucker). The percentage was based on this model. https://medium.com/@mattdesfosses/the-hockey-aging-curve-b0f33b91d1e4 And I got something that looks like this: Thompson 44/37/81 Tuch 33/39/72 Dahlin 18/53/71 Norris 34/28/62 Quinn 19/29/48 Zucker 21/24/45 Power 7/36/43 Byram 10/32/42 Benson 15/26/41 Doan 17/24/41 *(rookie, small sample size) Kulich 25/15/40 *(rookie, small sample size) McLeod 16/24/40 Danforth 12/16/28 Kesselring 6/22/28 Greenway 10/14/24 Krebs 8/15/23 Timmins 4/18/22 Samuelsson 4/12/16 Basically, the above is based on all 18 projected starters playing the full 82 games, which won't happen, and no one else playing at all, which also won't happen. The fill-ins almost certainly won't be scoring at the same rate as the starters so it trends to the optimistic. To factor in injuries, I took 89% (the mean NHL games lost to injury is 11%) of the above total (303->270)) then added in the amount of goals scored by Sabres skaters not in the top 18 for games played last year (12). And I ended with a grand total of 282 goals. The NHL median last year was 245. Obviously this is math and what actually will happen is impossible to predict and we'll all apply our own biases (Quinn will get 30! Doan might not even make the team!) But I think the logic is pretty sound in terms of giving us a ballpark figure of what this roster might be capable of and it's better than I would have expected given our moves. EDIT: the single biggest question mark to me here is pretty obviously Norris and his availability, then the small sample sizes of Doan and Kulich.

Brought in some grinders: Jeannot, Eysimont, Kuraly, plus Arvidsson, didn’t really lose anything. Pretty marginal, but still 2nd best of our competitors, according to the model.

According to this data-driven ESPN article, yes the Sabres are better. https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/45700988/which-32-nhl-teams-added-lost-most-value-offseason-three-year-gar-draft-free-agency Article concludes they are the league's 12th most-improved, but the amount of improvement is negligible. Our adds were the 8th best, but our subtractions were the 9th worst. Of the teams around us, only the Rangers declined significantly (unless you count the Leafs). and only the Canadiens made significantly improvements, followed by Boston.

Sounds like Luke Osburn’s year caught the attention of USAHockey. He’s been invited to the Summer Showcase this summer, which s generally camp for the WJC team. Zeimer and Kleber, who made the team last year, will also be there.

There's injuries on every team every year. And as unexpectly bad a some players were, there were also breakouts from McLeod, Peterka, and to a lesser extent Byram.

Thought Clifton already set that market.

Is that the consensus? Actually asking, have not seen those discussions. Would it surprise you to learn that 9 teams have had worse records than the Buffalo Sabres over the past four years, who have never finished bottom five in that span? In answer to your question, not sure if it was bottom 5 in the league, but Montreal was consensus last in the division just this year and surprised. (Before anyone jumps on me for defending the Sabres, they suck, I’m just responding to his post.)

2Cs on playoff teams (based on ice time): Draisaitl 106 points, +32, 21:31 Tavares 74 points, +10, 18:14 Hischier 69 points, +9, 20:23 Hintz 67 points, +18, 16:53 Dubois 66 points, +27, 17:18 Hertl 61 points, -3, 17:07 Rossi 60 points, +15, 18:15 Cirelli 59 points, +30, 18:41 McLeod 53 points, +13, 16:50 Bennett 51 points, -15, 17:27 Schenn 50 points, +3, 17:34 Danault 43 points, +20, 17:40 Staal 36 points, +15, 15:26 Lowry 34, +18, 15:26 *Mittelstadt 34 points, -12, 17:00 *Norris 33 points, -5, 18:20 Dach 22 points, -29, 15:40 Interesting exercise and kinda eye-opening. *Short-season totals. Each was traded at the deadline and Nelson and Cozens took over.

I'd say first bold was true for too many NHL games. It's why Levi hasn't stuck. Second bold, I haven't seen that as an issue in the AHL. The questionable goals I've seen at the AHL level are more of the Ryan Miller whiffs from distance type. It's an interesting point to break down, but in general what you seem to be talking about is his ability to make high-danger saves, where a shooter has time to pick his spot? Don't have time to do a deep dive in to that, but I did see and post elsewhere on here where (big) UPL struggled the past 2 years in high-danger situations, whereas (small) Levi and Lyon were very good (top 10). I have no idea if that was representative of the league as a whole. Personally, I think coaching is pushing past the Robin Lehner giants by cross-crease movement attacks and controlled lateral movement is becoming vogue as the pre-eminent goalie skill, but that's a whole other discussion.

My annual summer ranking, post-development camp, based on how good an NHL player they should become. 2024/25 could best be described as a mundane year of mild disappointment on the prospect front. While a majority of prospects trudged along safely within the margins of their expected paths, few took big leaps and a number either ran out of runway or are approaching the end of their runs without hitting liftoff. I think the team is entering a real transition period where a lot of similarly ranked prospects are poised to sink or swim in a too-tight cluster. The Sabres graduated Jiri Kulich and cut ties with Matt Savoie, Lukas Rousek, Aleksandr Kisakov, Ethan Miedema, and Viljami Marjala from last year’s list. Last year’s ranks are in parentheses. Should be NHLers, could be really good: (Levi) 1 Devon Levi (1): Levi’s playoff run for Rochester was probably a microcosm for where he is at in his development curve: his overall numbers were very good, and there were games were he looked unbeatable. But there were also games where the eye test said ‘this guy is not ready yet for the NHL. From a technical aspect, the athleticism remains outstanding; this is a goalie who can make the big save. But sometimes pucks get through him that should not. The skill is there, the mental focus is there, the numbers are there. What still needs to come is the experience that will give him the comfort level of knowing that when things go wrong within games and within seasons the key is to relax and stay within himself. I think Levi expected to be in the NHL by now and that has weighed on him; it’s a type of adversity he has yet to deal with in his young life. Psychologically, starting in Rochester this October, and earning his way up feels like the right path. I expect to see him at some point this year and be a fixture next year. His upside remains high. 2 Radim Mrtka (NR): I think Sabres fans got a bit of a wrong impression of Mrtka. They heard he was big but not mean. They heard he lacked high-end offence. And in their minds they put him in a bucket that said “low-upside Owen Power without the points” and called him safe and vanilla. But while he could hurt people more and he could score more, this guy is anything but safe. This guy’s ceiling is very high — first-pairing shutdown high. He’s got that kind of toolbox. The question is how far can he develop those tools. Because he’s not there yet. He is a rare physical specimen with the feet, length and compete to defend at a very high level, and he’s not without skill (he led the WHL in p/g for his draft year). But he is very raw and there is a lot of work to do in terms of decision-making and details. This is a motivated low-floor, high-ceiling development prospect. Development camp comparisons were made to Tyler Myers, and they’re probably apt in terms of where Mrtka eventually settles. Tyler Myers has played 16 years in the NHL, mostly as a top 4 D. That’s an excellent return from a #9 pick. But he’s 3 years away. Should be NHL regulars: (Helenius, Kulich, Savoie, Östlund) 3 Konsta Helenius (2) Jumping up a league from Finland to the AHL and posting pretty much the identical statistics at the higher level is a pretty good indication that Helenius is right on track in his development. He was the youngest player in the AHL and sometimes it showed, but the 18-year-old demonstrated he was not going to be pushed around by the men of North American hockey and by the time the playoffs rolled around, he was pushing first. His point totals were the 3rd best by a U19 AHL player this century, but that should be read in the context of how few players play a full AHL season at his age. He played more wing than centre as his coaches tried to smooth his adjustment. The team will be looking to see if he can make a step next year from complementary player to part of Rochester’s core. He ticks a lot of NHL boxes and has a lot of runway in front of him. He’s at least a year away, probably 2. 4 Noah Östlund (5): After a bad hand contributed to a poor start, Östlund provided proof of his high draft pedigree by reeling off a 35-point, +19 run in just 32 games to earn a call-up from Rochester. I’m more interested in what he learned after the call-up. He could skate with NHLers and avoided getting caved. But in terms of making plays he showed he still has a ways to go. Couple that with an AHL playoff — where he again played OK but struggled to produce — and he should be spending the off-season with a clear focus on what he has to do to improve. And a lot of that is about strength. Östlund is probably behind Rosen and ahead of Helenius in terms of who will be the first offensive forward called up. He will be leaned on to be the Amerk 1C this year, much like Kulich was in his 2nd pro season. He’s a year away from a legitimate shot at making the big club. Could be NHL regulars: (Wahlberg, Rosen, Novikov, Johnson, Komarov, Strbak) 5 Prokhor Poltapov (14): First the good news: there was no one in the organization who took a bigger leap last year than Poltapov. After disappointing D+2 season, the young left winger vaulted himself up off the CSKA 4th line to become the KHL team’s second-leading scorer while retaining all the grit and lineup versatility that could allow him to make an NHL impact in multiple different roles. The bad news is he also signed a contract extension and is not expected to show up in Buffalo any time soon. In the summer of 2027 he will be free again to sign with the Sabres (and no other NHL team), but also old enough that he will be able to leverage (and maybe earn) himself a promise to bypass Rochester entirely and join the Sabres directly as a 24-year-old. The Sabres apparently are still in contact with him and consider him part of their future. 6 Maxim Strbak (11): The Slovak got picked in the high second round because he’s right-handed shot with a prototypical NHL 2nd-pairing skillset: size, skating, leadership and the ability to perform on both sides of the puck. His performance this year in Michigan State did nothing but reinforce that perception. After a somewhat uneven freshman year, Strbak took a much bigger role on a very good team, putting up good numbers playing first pairing minutes. He’ll return to college this fall and probably sign next spring. He’ll need a year or two in Rochester before making the leap. Has a shot: (Kleber, Neuchev, Poltapov, Zeimer, Rousek) 7 Ryan Johnson (9): It might look like Johnson has climbed this list, but I wouldn’t really read too much into that; the separation between 7 and 14 is not significant. Johnson is where he is because he is the closest person on this tier to being an NHL regular right now. Johnson had a nondescript but solid AHL season and has the makings of a nondescript but solid NHL defensemen. He’s got NHL feet and the ability to quietly snuff plays and flip the puck up-ice as a mobile defensive defenceman, and was effective being leaned on in that role for the Amerks. The NHL roster is set up so the only thing standing in his way is the placeholder named Jacob Bryson. I expect at some point during this season he will make Bryson redundant and should get his first legitimate full-time NHL role next year, if injuries or trades don’t create that opportunity for him sooner. I’d say it’s 50/50 as to whether he is able to take advantage and turn the NHL into a full-time gig. 8 Nikita Novikov (8): When I watch Rochester, Novikov consistently catches my eye because he plays hockey like a man. You want to mess with his teammates, he objects. You want to get to the front of his net, he objects. You want to move pucks out of his corner, he objects. He’s physical, consistently focused and constantly engaged, while being smart and not prone to making a lot of mistakes. He’s led the Amerks in +/- on each of his two pro seasons. I like pretty much everything about Nikita except his feet; I’m just not sure they will translate to the NHL level. Like Johnson, he’s paid his dues and is getting close to earning his shot. We may see some spot duty this year, especially if they feel the need to add some iron to their backline. 9 Brodie Ziemer (15): The third round hasn’t exactly been kind to the Sabres over the years, but Zeimer has a decent chance of breaking a drought that dates all the way back to Brayden McNabb in 2008. He’s one of those players who doesn’t have any particular elite traits, but he does most things well. He is a self-starter and a leader who makes the most of what he’s got. He flirted with a top 6 role as a true freshman on a good Minnesota team, putting up solid numbers as the Gophers only 18-year-old regular and posted a point a game for the gold-medal US WJC squad. He’s 3 or 4 years away, but he gets it, and I like his chances as middle-six team guy. 10 Anton Wahlberg (6): If there was one prospect who disappointed me most this year, it was probably Wahlberg. The understated puck skills and the bull-strength he flashed in his D+1 year just weren’t on display enough in Rochester. He came across as kinda uncertain and tentative in his play; I didn’t see him using his big body and I didn’t see the hand skills or the hockey sense. His numbers — roughly a 40-point pace — were fine given his age though. His physical gifts are obvious and he just turned 20 last week, so there is lots of runway left. This is a ranking he can easily flip next year. 11 Adam Kleber (12): The fact that Kleber was a 3rd-pairing defenceman on a weaker college team last year who managed just 5 points isn’t going to get anyone excited. But there aren’t a lot of 18-year-olds playing bigger roles in the NCAA. And Kleber is never going to be someone who puts up points. He’s a giant of a young man and his role is to make life rough on opposing forwards, something he has been able to do quite well against his peers. He joined Zeimer on the US WJC squad, where he played that role quite successfully. He’s a good 4 years from any NHL games but his physical tools could get him there. Two things he has over Novikov are better feet, and better retrievals, which might make the difference in carving out an NHL career. 12 Tyson Kozak (20): I like Kozak and respect the no-cheat way he plays the game. I also consider him to be one of the more overrated prospects in the system. This is a guy who has yet to play 55 games or score 15 points in a professional season in three tries. There’s nothing really in his resume that suggests he can be an NHL player, other than the fact he played 21 games this year and did not look totally out of place as a 4th-line centre. The fanbase almost universally seems comfortable pencilling him in on the open day roster. I don’t see it; not with Justin Danforth and Peyton Krebs able to do pretty much everything Kozak can do, and more, better. What’s he’s got though is the trust of his coaches, which does mean something, and the desire to get better. He is the type who, given the opportunity, might seize it and run. He’s not big, he’s not fast and he’s not skilled. But he is smart and he does compete. Maybe that will be enough. 13 Isak Rosen (7): He can shoot kinda like JJ Peterka. He can skate kinda like JJ Peterka. He’s probably already more defensively aware and responsible than JJ Peterka. In some world, maybe this one, a case could be made that Rosen might slide smoothly into the roster spot Peterka fled and pop 20 goals as an NHL rookie. He’s shown steady improvement over each of his 3 professional seasons in Rochester, capped by this year where he scored at a near 40-goal pace and led the team in points. He’s at the point in his NHL career where he should be ready to follow his good buddy Kulich into the show. The thing is, I just don’t see it happening. Because as talented as Rosen is, he’s anything but an alpha in an organization with no room for soft, deferential skilled forwards. He’s got the skill to be an NHer, but I just don’t see the will, or the opportunity. I think he’s poised to peak this season as a tweener. I expect he will be with another organization next year and back in Europe shortly after. 14 Vsevolod Komarov (10): For the most part Komarov was Rochester’s #6D last year. Which shouldn’t have been unexpected given he was a rookie on a deep blue line. And it isn’t as bad as it might seem given that Leone played everybody. Komarov plays a hard, fearless game. He attacks on defence and he attacks on offence. He’s big and he’s not without skill although his skating stride is awkward and his puck touches aren’t entirely clean. The reason I have him at the bottom of this tight cluster of Sabres prospects is that it is kinda hard to slot him in to a specific NHL role. He’s not really a meaty crease-clearing #6, or a mobile safety valve #5, or someone who is going to play on an NHL PP. But he does have competence in a lot of areas and a great attitude that may carry him past his limitations. Longshot with a shot: (Ratzlaff, McCarthy, Kisakov, Kozak) 15 Scott Ratzlaff (17): Goalies have a long runway and a lot of obstacles to leap before anyone can be entirely comfortable projecting them into an NHL crease. But within that context, Ratzlaff has a shot. The fifth-round pick has stopped a lot pucks over his junior career, first as a tandem goalie on a Seattle contender in his draft year, then as the main guy for a struggling rebuild in his D+1, and finally as the focal point of a T-Bird revival this season. Not particularly large for a goalie, Ratzlaff is a fast-twitch athlete with quick reflexes and an upbeat leader’s attitude. He’s earned a contract and a chance to battle Topias Leinonen for the backup position in Rochester this year. 16 David Bedkowsi (NR): Anyone who watched Bedkowski’s post-draft interview should have come away impressed with his thoughtful, mature approach. But the thing that will make him a favoured son on this list for years to come is the scouting report from Elite Prospects: “Arguably the most violent player in the class, with the mobility, reach, defensive traits, and bloodlust to develop into a tremendous play killer.” Bedkowski brings almost no offence, but he can skate and he can play without the puck, and he is a giant human being. He’s 5 years away, but will be warmly welcomed when he arrives. 17 Jake Richard (HM): A slow-cooking late 2022 pick, Richard may have been the best development story in the organization. After nearly doubling his scoring totals in his 2nd USHL season, he did it again this year in his second season at UConn going from 18 points as a freshman to 43 as a sophomore, making his living at the net front. He’s practically moved into Buffalo in the off-season to take advantage of the Sabres training facilities and will probably sign his first pro contract in the fall and spend a year or two in Rochester trying to follow in the late-round footsteps of Victor Olofsson. 18 Viktor Neuchev (13): A skilled Russian winger, Neuchev earned rave reviews from his coach Vinnie Prospal this year for the way he had thrown himself into the task of becoming a complete player while increasing his scoring. His mission was cut short however by a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery. He’s got more skill than your average third-rounder but he’s still learning how to play the North American pro game. It will be interesting to see how that affects him as he battles for prime ice time with Rochester’s thick group of young forwards. 19 Gavin McCarthy (18): Drafted a round after Strbak, McCarthy carries a similar skillset, plays a similar two-way game and showed a similar level of improvement. He also remains a round behind him in terms of his NHL projection. Whereas Strbak is little more polished, McCarthy is more of a gung ho, high-risk/reward type. He skates well and isn’t shy of the rough stuff and definitely seems headed toward an NHL contract, maybe after this season. 20 Luke Osburn (NR: You make a lot of picks in the later rounds hoping that at least a few them surprise and push themselves into a legitimate prospects status. Osburn was that guy this year. A very young, smooth-skating puck mover, he broke out with 41 points in 55 games and was named the USHL defenceman of the year. He’s off to Wisconsin next year to see if he can continue to build on that great year, but is at least 2 or 3 years away from turning pro. Honourable mentions: (Marjala, Richard) 21 Topias Leinonen (NR): After 2 bad post-draft years led me to write him off this list completely, Leinonen stopped the slide last year with a solid season in the Swedish second division. Fuelled in part by injuries and adversity, he dedicated himself to fitness, pulled his career out of the dumpster and earned himself a pro contract. An absolutely massive human being, he’s slotted to share time with Ratzlaff between backing up Levi in Rochester and taking a lead role in the ECHL. 22 Ryerson Leenders (NR): Another young athletic goalie with average size like Ratzlaff (and the two goalies picked this June), Leenders followed up a solid draft year in Mississauga with a similar season in Brantford where he complied an impressive winning record. Another year of the same might earn him a contract with a space opening due to the the expected graduation of Levi.

This is absolutely true. It's also true that most teams aren't running a Sam Bennett in the 2C slot. These were some of McLeod's peers points-wise: Marco Rossi, Morgan Geekie, Brock Nelson, Sean Monahan, Adam Fantili Mason Mctavish, Chandler Stevenson, Evgeni Malkin, Dylkan Cozens, Pius Suter, Barrett Hayton. Most of these guys also had to get the minutes and get points. He doesn't seem to be grossly outclassed.

This is the most blue sky thinking ever, but the concept of Quinn and the concept of Doan flanking a levelled-up version of the Krebs we saw this year would such a great mix of skillsets against most bottom 6 lines.

Agree, except with the Rust might come cheap part. There are so few top 6 options available and so many teams with cap sapce, the price is going to be high.