dudacek

1 Tage Thompson is going to have a monster year Everything I’ve seen on the ice the past few years has convinced me that he is top-tier talent; very few players have his physical gifts and his ability to create his own offence. Everything I’ve seen and heard off the ice this summer is that he is hyper-focused on breaking the drought and making the Olympic team in the process. He’s going to be a game breaker 2 Zach Benson is going to improve the top 6 The analytics don’t lie: Benson tilts the ice no matter who is with or against him. He’s going to keep the puck pointed away from our net and towards theirs in a way others couldn’t. He’s going to do the dirty work of getting to the net, forcing turnovers and making plays in tight the way that others wouldn’t. He’s going to keep the goals against down, do all the little things to make Tage’s life easier and he’s going to start unlocking his offensive skillset in the process. Third season jumps for skilled forwards are a real thing. 3 Josh Norris will be a notable upgrade on Dylan Cozens I’m not going to repeat the excellent work @mjd1001 did on how Cozens was a black hole that swallowed offence and served up chances. ‘Decent’ would be an upgrade in his role, and Norris is better than decent. His shoulder is healthy and the rest of his body is no more at risk than anyone else’s. He’s gonna play and he’s gonna help. 4 Jack Quinn will replace JJ Peterka I’m not sure where it all went wrong for Quinn last year, but track records have to account for something. Quinn was better than Peterka in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 — both offensively and defensively — before last year saw them switch places. He’s coming in fit and highly motivated, and Peteka’s offensive minutes should be his for the taking. He got 40 points last year playing like *****. He won’t play like ***** this year. 5 Michael Kesselring is exactly what the blue line was missing I’m not sure you could have plucked a more suitable player to match the prototype of what the Sabres were looking for: a big, enthusiastic, right-handed defenceman with good underlying numbers and something to prove, who will play hard and answer the bell. He will provide competence to go along with both depth and edge, and make all three pairs better because the pieces will finally fit. 6 Josh Doan is exactly what the forward ranks were missing I can’t count the number of times Sabrespacers have screamed for a player to forecheck, to back check, to hit, to get to the net, to stick up for his teammates, to work, to care. Josh Doan is all of these things. Whether he’s on the 1st line or the 4th, he’s going to do the dirty work and inspire his teammates to do the same. He’ll be fan favourite by Christmas. 7 Lindy knows the roster and they know him I’m not absolving the coach or the players for the lack of preparation and the piss-poor job they did connecting with each other last year. But this year, there will be no learning curve and no surprises. The coach knows what most of this team is capable of. The pieces that did not fit were ejected. Pieces were acquired to fill what the coach thought his roster lacked. Expectations are firmly in place and plenty of secondary roles are there to be won or lost through internal competition. Ruff’s legacy is on the line. 8 This defence corps is going to create a *****-ton of offence Concern has rightfully been expressed about the Sabres lack of playmakers down the middle, but I’m not sure enough has been said about the embarrassment of playmakers they have on the blue line. Buffalo has FOUR of league’s top 50 point producers at even strength on the blueline: ranking 4, 15, 17 and tied for 40th overall. People are drooling over Montreal getting Dobson. Kesselring matched him point for point at ES and he’s the worst offensively of the Sabres 4. Dahlin is elite and none of the other three have hit their peak. It’s a rare mix and could create nightmares to defend against. 9 The team is going to play better defence We’ve talked a ton about how bad the Sabres were at defence, but not as much about how the roster changes might affect that. Cozens warts have been thoroughly discussed, Peterka had some of the worst defensive underlying numbers in the league, Lafferty sucked, Clifton analytically was one of the league’s least-effective regular defensemen, Jokiharju had no role, and Bryson played too much. Norris, Doan, Danforth, Timmons, Kesselring, and Jones are, respectively, each better at defending than the guy they are replacing. Analytically speaking, Doan, Kesselring and Timmons are actually outright good at it. None of that includes the defensive improvement that usually comes with experience for younger players. 10 The goaltending can’t possibly get worse As a team, the Sabres ranked 29th in S% last year with 89.9%. The previous year, they were 14th with 91.4%. Luukkonen went from 19th in Goals saved above expected (min 10 games) 2 years ago to 60th last year, an 18-goal differential. Levi went from 15th to not qualifying, but he had a similar 18-goal drop. Luukkonen’s save percentage was 12 points below his career average and 23 points worse than his previous year. Levi was 24 points behind his career average. Alex Lyon is a career .902 goaltender, putting up .904 and .896 the past two years on a defensively poor Detroit squad. Historically, these goalies should be better than they were last year.

I’m already on record as saying my expectations for this team are for it to be slightly better than last year, but probably not enough for the playoffs. That doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of reasons to inject hopium for a better result. Here are 10 positive possibilities, none of which are out-of-this-world crazy:

I think it’s an Amerks deal

The psychology of fandom is fascinating stuff. Im curious to see the Venn diagram of people who credit luck in both last-minute wins and last-minute losses.

Word on prospect challenge rosters? Development camp was weak and we won’t have the college guys. Zeimer and Richard would have been nice to see, as well as Kleber, Osburn, Strbak and McCarthy Doubt Johnson and Kozak play. Rosen might not either, but he still is a 1st contract guy. But if they play all the 3rd year non-NHL guys, the lineup still could be interesting. Wahlberg Östlund Rosen Neuchev Helenius Nadeau Fiddler-Schultz Kuntar Joshua Kopf Savage Costantini Novikov Mrtka Béliveau Komarov Fulp Bedkowski Laberge Brunet Leinonen Ratzlaff Leenders That’s a pretty old prospect team if they do indeed ice all those former college guys. Helenius is the only junior eligible forward. Guys like Joshua (106 pro games) and Kuntar (124) are only 3rd year pros, but they’re definitely men. Be one of the biggest, toughest lineups the Sabres have ever iced at one of these things.

I think it is amazing how much Montreal’s 24/25 season has in common with the Sabres 22/23 season. The Dobson move is the sort of thing Adams failed to do after the Sabres big jump, but I don’t think Montreal, right now on paper, is better than Buffalo. If they prove me wrong, it will be because Demidov, Slavkovsky and some of their other youngsters take a step Power, Cozens, Quinn and other Sabres youngsters haven’t.

Of course it is more complicated than just “a chance to win” but I think you are underestimating the propensity of most players to overestimate how close their team is. I don’t get a sense the Sabres current players think they are bad, I think most of them think they should be a playoff team.

Tuch, Zucker and Greenway rejecting free agency to re-sign means they are greedy bastards who dont care about winning. Peterka forcing his way out is proof the team is toxic and nobody wants to be in Buffalo. 🙄

They are not: no Benson, no Kulich, no Power. Of interest is how the Sabres top prospects slid despite good rookie AHL seasons: Östlund from 57 overall to 67 and Helenius from 23 down to 58. Mrtka enters as Buffalos top-ranked prospect at 43. Rosen - an honourable mention last year - is now considered graduated.

6 suits Benson: squat, old school and in defiance of expectations. I need Norris to be fully engaged in being a long-term key Sabre. Silly, but that felt like step in the right direction. Wanted Kess to take 5 or 6 but 8 works. I like that all these numbers are old school. Danforth already the most likable 15 in team history. 😜

I am outraged at the lack of respect shown the leadership of Girgensons and Okposo. The blood sweat and tears on those jerseys were barely dry.

Personally, my premises would be different: 1. Success is defined by how much entertainment (good feeling?) the team generates. That is predominantly fuelled by wins and losses, but also influenced by things like the when and how of those wins and losses, the play of individual players, off-ice news and moves, and interactions with other fans. 2. The further away success feels the lower things get. This isn’t a looking back to my last hit thing. The future and the past matter, but the most important element here is the present. 3. Every season (really, every game) offers a new set of circumstances and a chance at a different outcome. The Sabres are bigger than Adams and Pegula.

So the logic should go something like this? 1. Success is defined as making the playoffs 2. The longer you go without making the playoffs the lower things get 3. The Pegula/Adams combo offers no reason to believe things are going to change Therefore it’s logical that this is the lowest point?

I’m not sure how one can be intellectually dishonest answering what seems to me a purely emotional question. 🤷

You’re not asking me, but I can think of 2 candidates: the most recent was the Krueger bubble fiasco when they lost 18 in a row and a team with Eichel, Reinhart, Hall, Skinner, Dahlin, Montour literally could not score and looked like they may never score again. We started something like 6/26/5 The tank had clearly and unequivocally failed and we were no closer to the playoffs than we were when we were losing on purpose. Every player clearly wanted out as fast as possible and Krueger had nothing but empty platitudes. Utterly painful to watch. The second was the 1986/87 team. I was a teenager who had been drinking the Bowman koolaid for years; the 80 points the previous year was a mirage; there was no way Scotty and all his high picks wasn’t going to bounce back. We went 1/7/2 to start the year, Perreault couldn’t take it and retired and a roster loaded with has-beens like Clark Gillies and Wilf Paiement went on to finish dead last. I was crushed. It was a real wake up call and the end of innocence for my fandom. The Sabres had never been bad in my experience and I don’t know if I ever considered the possibility that they could be.

I think we’ll probably see Zucker, Tage and Dahlin back in the same spots, with Tage being asked to move around more. Norris will be on PP1, I’m just not sure if he’s bumper or in Peterka’s old spot. If he’s in Peterka’s spot Im concerned they’ll make the mistake of Tuch in the bumper again. If they put him in the bumper, I think Kulich might get Peterka’s spot, which makes sense if they’re looking for the guy most able to give what Peterka gave. But part of me thinks they will be giving Quinn every opportunity to be a 30-goal man and Appert will be pushing hard to get him on PP1. Im not expecting them to change their approach much in terms of how they set things up. Me I’d kinda like to see Byram added for motion and Benson for traffic play because the PP Ned’s more passing. I think Quinn has the skill set to be excellent on the PP but he was too unreliable last year. Tuch would not be a PP1 option for me. Something like this with lots of rotation and the low guys setting some things up for below the goal line Quinn. Benson Dahlin. Byram Tage PP2 Tuch Zucker Norris. Kulich Power

Just turned 18 in June.

I think a lot of this is valid, but checkout the video that opens the Benson thread. There is some sick one touch passing under duress going on there. Stuff I see no other Sabre doing, and you know he’s going to get better at it.

Your last note is the important one. If you don’t have the right guy, you have to find the best guy. Cozens didn’t work. Tuch doesn’t. You might have to try a kid with some skills and hope he grows into the role. Norris has the quick touch thing and the shot. I think we may see him there first, even though he’s not a distributor at all. Another option: Norris has proven he can succeed in the Tage slot. Thoughts on moving him there, Tage to the bumper?

I don’t have to imagine, there are song edits and album rearrangements and mashups all over the internet. You don’t know people who say “great book/show/movie, but I hated what they did with the character…”? Or walk into a house or garden and say “what a beautiful spot, you know what would make it even better…” It might not be your thing but it’s just a common manifestation of the creative aspect of human nature.

Speaking for myself — but I don't think it's a stretch to project onto others — of course it's not our job, it's an interest and a form of personal entertainment.

Another player who is surprisingly ineffective on the PP is Alex Tuch. As in "doesn't deserve the ice time he gets" 198 NHL forwards got 100 minutes of PP time last year. Tuch's ranking: Goals: tied with 15 others at 146th Points: tied with 8 others at 124th Goals per 60: 160th Points per 60: 145th This aren't new numbers. He's averaged 4 goals and 10 assists on the PP over the past 3 seasons despite being second in ice time over that period by a wide margin. You could make he argument he's there for tips, entries and retrievals — which he should be good at — but he's not succeeding

And this is where Josh Norris comes in: 61.2% on PP faceoffs last year. He's also effective on the PP in general: he averaged 3 minutes a game last year and his career goals per 60 on the PP is 2.83 These are the Sabres numbers from last year in that stat: Zucker 3.16 Thompson 1.90 Benson 1.70 Peterka 1.61 Krebs 1.46 Tuch 0.95 This. Or maybe Quinn. Bumper is the most unsettled, least effective spot on the unit. it's a spot that some teams utilize to deadly effect. You need quick hands and quick reads to make sudden plays in tight, the ability to find seams and create space, and an accurate shot. Benson can read plays and pass in traffic better than any other forward, but he lacks separation and a killer shot. Quinn has the hand skills, but frequently isn't sudden enough. Still he creates separation and has a deadly wrister. I think you lean into one of those guys, hoping Benson's shot has improved, or Quinn's willingness to get to the net and make good puck decisions has returned.

@Taro T mentions it above, but both he and I have said it before: try Byram in the Peterka spot. The fact of the matter is that the three best passers on the team are probably Dahlin, Byram and Power. Power might be able to do it too, but he tends to slow things down and I think the Sabres PP needs to speed things up. Bo moves his feet and the puck a little faster. (Might also help with entries) Id be curious to see how many high danger shot assists the guys not named Rasmus made to Tage.

I think another big issue is entries. I don't have the stats to back this up (and don't know where to get them), but it feels that the Sabres waste a lot of time regrouping after their attempts to carry the puck in get blunted. They don't like to dump it it in, and those times that they do, they aren't very good at getting the puck back.