dudacek

Why should it be considered a problem?

There needs to be some acknowledgement that the context to this debate has shifted since last summer. I loosely defined "backup" as goalies who have played 15-35 games this year Devon Levi ranks 18th in SV%, and 20th in GAA I defined "starter" as goalies who have played more than 35 games. UPL ranks 12th and 8th Overall, Luukkonen is 21st and 13th and Levi 47th and 49th out of 68 goalies. Of course the question remains 'Yeah, but they're so young. Where's the track record?" One response might be "Tell me who has a dependable track record? Merzlikins, Korpisalo, Raanta, Vanecek, Husso, Allen, Gibson, Kahkonen, Vejmalka, Kuemper, Forsberg, Blackwood, Gustafsson, Mrazek, Jarry, Lankinen, Grubauer, Samsonov, Fleury...did any of these guys significantly outplay Levi this year? Or this: .899 3.10 .900 2.86 One is Devon Levi, the other Andrei Vasilevskiy Ideally, I want a proven NHL backup who Levi will clearly have to beat out to be in the NHL. How much would we have to give up to acquire a goalie we "know" is going to be better than Levi? How much are we willing to spend on a "just in case"? How many proven NHL backups will be interested in coming here knowing what the Sabres feel about Levi?

While my previous post is my direct answer to @tom webster's thread-starting question, I think I also need to answer his subtext: and that is not whether this season is a failure, but whether this rebuild and its architects are a failure. And my answer to that is: not yet, but crunch time is arriving. Adams made no secret of the fact that his plan was to collect a critical mass of young talent, then have it learn and grow together into a team that could contend for a decade. Our cynics rolled their eyes at that as just a way of making his leash as long as possible. But I believe it is a legitimate path to success and one I think works if you are right on your talent evaluations. Because Jeff Skinner is an outlier. Skinner made the NHL at 18, scored 30 goals and 65 points, played crappy defence and got under a lot of people’s skins. He’s been that player for most of his 14 seasons and he remains that player today. But — like Webster’s opening post implies — most NHL players and youthful rebuilds don’t work that way. Players arrive unfinished and spend a few years learning how they can best succeed at NHL hockey. They don’t establish a level and an identity until sometime into their 3rd or 4th season, after they have 200 or 300 games under their belts. Consider these Sabres: Tuch broke out in season 6, after 305 games Dahlin broke out in season 5 after 277 games Thompson broke out in season 5 (he missed all of season 3 due to injury) after 145 games Mittelstadt broke out in season 5 after 195 games The first 3 are now young veterans and key members of Adams handpicked core. And as much as many of you hate this, the rest of his “blinding light brigade” is still cooking: Cozens 270 games, about to enter season 5 (and probably broke out in season 3 after 120 games) Krebs 205, about to enter season 3 Byram 155, about to enter season 4 Power 153, about to enter season 3 Peterka 151, about to enter season 3 Samuelsson 150, about to enter season 3 Quinn 94, about to enter season 3 Luukkonen 92, about to enter season 3 Benson 61, about to enter season 2 Levi 28, about to enter season 2 This season failed because that group was not good enough yet and because Adams and Granato didn’t give them the support they needed. And they need to make sure they don’t repeat the latter mistake this summer. But - like it or not - their big picture plan succeeds or fails on how many of those young players take a step and their windows are just starting to open. Many of you will see it differently, but I see the first 2 seasons of the Adams rebuild as successful in terms of the path he was walking. Season 3 has been a failure, but I have no interest in firing him at this point. Growth is never smooth. He gets a chance to react and adjust to this year. Granato, I like and want to see succeed, but this is pro sports. I make the call on his future based on player interviews and his plans for revamping his staff and fixing the offence. If I decide to retain him, it’s on a short leash. But chucking the plan at this juncture seems premature to me.

Absolutely we should have expected more from this year. And that’s even if you subscribe to my personal belief that this is more realistically described as year 3 of a ripped-down-to-the-studs rebuild. (People seem to forget that we started ‘Adams 2.0’ with our top 6 forwards coming off seasons of 13, 10, 8, 7, 4 and 2 goals, respectively, and for 3 of those guys, those were career bests). Last year’s Sabres team missed the playoffs by just 1 point coming off 2 years of steady improvement. It clearly had talent given the offence it had just put up. It was resilient, fast and explosive. Its holes — goaltending, PK, commitment to team defence, stoutness up front, and depth on the blue line were pretty obvious and should have been fixable. Ironically, the team looks to have fixed, or at least improved, most of those holes. But in the process it got slower and easier to frustrate. Sabrespace has wrongly excoriated this team as being terrible when really it’s kinda like it was last year — just a different shade of mediocre. But the pieces and the opportunities were there last summer for Adams and Granato to make this year something more and they were unable to do so. Sure the core is callow, but Adams did not bring in the right pieces, nor Granato push the right buttons to smooth or mask the pitfalls of that reality. I can’t see any way to describe this year as anything other than a failure. And they have to own that.

Doubling down? 4 of the past 6 Stanley Cup winners were coached by men who never played NHL hockey. A 5th played just 36 games. John Tortorella, Claude Julien, Mike Babcock, Bob Hartley, Pat Burns, Scotty freaking Bowman — half of this century's cup-winners never played NHL hockey. Bowman, Burns, Hartley, Babcock and Cooper never even played pro hockey at all. Barry Trotz had a worse record than Granato in each of his first 5 NHL seasons — under .500 and missed the playoffs in every single one. Cup. Granato may or may not be a good coach, but the fact he didn't play in the NHL has nothing to do with it.

And/or that they don't have Nathan MacKinnon setting the pace or the tone? Do people actually find it particularly revelatory the Avalanche practice and play faster than the Sabres? Don't the Avalanche play faster than pretty much everybody? Hasn't Granato been urging the team to play faster all season long? This is not an endorsement of Granato, it's my attempt to point out that there is an equally plausible argument that Mitts' comment illustrates that the Sabres players are immature. That's been their story all season. Those are the cards the coach has been dealt. Suddenly surrounded by talented, driven adults, maybe it's dawning on Casey that there really is another level. Or let me put it this way, you add MacKinnon to the Sabres and Granato would suddenly become a much-better coach. Lindy Ruff coached the Sabres to 82, 72 and 85-point seasons from 2002-05 — or basically 3 straight years of what we have watched this year. And then Darcy gave him Chris Drury.

Jared Bednar Jon Cooper Barry Trotz Not exactly the best argument I've seen for rejecting a coach.

The gist of it is pretty simple: he believes in his people and he believes in his plan. When the fanbase absolutely believes neither, and is essentially told - yet again - to be patient, depression sets in. I'm signing off, probably for the duration of the season unless something notable happens. I like this place most of the time, but sharing in the lamentations isn't really my thing. The past few days brought back some good hockey talk though. Thanks for that.

So have we kept him? Honestly, I think I'd rather watch him and VO than Tyson Jost and Brett Murray down the stretch if we were only getting a couple fifths.

You alluded to it earlier, but Benson's playmaking and Thompson's physical gifts always made sense to me. First thing I though of when we picked him was "Skinner replacement"

Yes. I don't think Mitts for Byram is that — Byram is a Stanley Cup winning top 4 NHL defenceman with upside, not a prospect and a pick. Okposo played here for 8 years and was the captain, so he's not just any player. And Johnson is simply done. Trading him to the highest bidder is GM 101. But it certainly happened with Ullmark and Reinhart and O'Reilly, so the parallels are easy to draw and the track record is impossible to ignore. Nothing screams winning culture like winning.

Saw that one coming. RJ needed to be on the clear-day roster so he can help Roch on a playoff run and Tyson was the most logical call-up to fill in for the trades. I think Ryan is more likely to upset over missing the prayer meetings than the parties, but to each his own I guess.

It's what I would have done and thought was the plan looking at all the very talented, but probably not elite pieces we had up front. The reason I'm not dismissing the trade is because, in theory, having three 1st-pairing defencemen is also path that could work.

Watching the forwards last night without Mitts and Tage got me thinking about how bad it's going to look subbing guys like Rousek and Jost in for guys who can hold their own against NHLers like Kyle and Gus. Might get ugly. I doubt there were many contenders who wouldn't be interested in a 220-pound leader with 12 goals and experience on both special teams. It's the epitome of the kind of depth guy that gets traded at the deadline. He was sent to the team he wanted to go to and feels gives him the best shot at winning a cup before he retires. Doesn't hurt that his short time there will be spent in nice weather, hanging out with his good buddy Sam. This had nothing to do with shopping for the best return. Kyle called his shot and Adams got what he could. This was a reward.

It's their biggest issue this year. Not the hoary Sabrespace cliches of "grit" and "defence" Last year Tuch/Thompson/Skinner was one of the best lines in hockey. This year, they're a decent NHL 2nd line. I've maintained that for the current build to work it needs Power, Dahlin and now Byram to provide elite play-driving from the back end. But Thompson still has to be a game-breaker up front — not necessarily elite, but 40-goal dangerous. EDIT: when the ***** will I remember it's Byram, not Byrum.

I think it will be Jokiharju not Johnson. But either way, I agree. We make a big deal about their youth — and it's relevant — but Henri and Ras are now vets by games played and Clifton by age. Power will be in his 3rd season and Byram and Samuelsson their fourth. There's good size, elite skating, good compete and well above-average puck skills. Hopefully the experience factor clicks.

The Panthers wanted to send a contract out to balance the one coming in and he's the most disposable player they have under contract. He's Jonathan Parker or Riley Boychuk.

Pure favour to the captain: Adams moved him to a place where he wanted to go. Sjalin is not a real prospect and will never play in Buffalo.

You're really taking the loss of Mitts hard aren't you? I will say that last night certainly did nothing to prove you wrong.

I don't know, I see Quinn carrying the puck, creating open ice for his mates and dishing it off to Cozens and Peterka all the time. He had 35 assists in 45 games as an AHL rookie and has an assist every 3 games as a young NHLer. I think he can be a 40-assist guy in the NHL. Benson shows similar traits in terms of creating space and finding teammates. He had 62 assists in 60 games as a 17-year-old. Who knows how that eventually translates at an NHL level, but it's in their games.

Prior to the deadline I absolutely wanted: A 2-way match-up forward who can be trusted against good players in tough situations A big-body forward who gets to the net An agitating forward who can forecheck A legitimate top 4 defenceman A new backup goalie Like his profile or not, Byram crossed the D-man off the list, but losing Mittelstadt means at least one of the forwards should be of 2nd-line calibre. At least one of the skaters should have an intimidation factor, at least one needs to be a respected leader, and all 3 need to be competitive. The three new forwards will be replacing Okposo, Girgensons and Mittelstadt on the everyday roster. Olofsson's replacement as the offensive spare forward comes from the prospect pool. The defensive spare forward should be a meaner Robinson. I think the 8 guys we have on the blueline right now are coming back. I'd flip one for a similar level player who adds more edge if I could. I'm going to count on the increased offence coming from in-house: a mix of Tuch, Thompson, Quinn, Peterka, Cozens and Benson. A key part of that should come from a complete revamp of the power play. I need someone to draw attention from Dahlin and Thompson and/or take advantage of the attention they get. I'm intrigued by Byram and I'm looking hard at Jack Quinn, who was deadly on the PP as an Amerk. Skinner is off my PP1.

Bowen Byram makes a little more than Casey Mittelstadt but is also one year further away from getting a raise. I think Adams was reluctant to commit long-term to 3 $7M centres (many Sabrespacers felt the same way) but whether that's about managing to the real cap, or an artificial cap, it's open to speculation. Byram creates a similar question on D. Sabres are about $6M under this years cap. They are $21M under next years cap with 10 roster holes to fill. Okposo, Girgensons, UPL, Jokiharju and Krebs are the most prominent players needing to be replaced or re-signed The following year they are a projected $36M under, with Greenway, Peterka, Quinn, Byram, Johnson and Levi the most prominent free agents.

Some more on Byram from the Athletic: Byram’s on-ice results have never really been stellar aside from that one playoff run, but that’s partially due to injury troubles and having to play with basically everyone but Nathan MacKinnon’s line in Colorado. The team’s depth has taken a serious hit since its Stanley Cup win in 2022 and that limits Byram’s teammate quality given Cale Makar spends so much time with MacKinnon. In previous years he looked like a serious driver when it comes to individual possession-driving and it shows in Corey Sznajder’s tracked data. Just last year Byram had the profile of a future star in the right situation: someone who can move the puck well in the defensive zone, defend his own blue line, rush up ice and create a serious amount of chances in the offensive zone. There may be other stuff he doesn’t do well that hampered his on-ice results, but skill-wise it looked like Byram had it. His puck efficiency was tremendous across the board. That’s all changed this year; none of those facets have been true and he’s been below average in every regard except rushing up ice. It’s been a night-and-day change, one that speaks to a need for a change of scenery where he can show more in a top-four role. Byram wasn’t getting that in Colorado, but he should get more opportunity in Buffalo — even with Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power around on the left side. This deal may not look perfectly fair at the moment, but everything hinges on what Byram can become. The talent and opportunity are there for him to make this a win for the Sabres. Can he take advantage of it? https://theathletic.com/5321783/2024/03/07/16-stats-mittelstadt-byram-colton-parayko-islanders/

The price for Mitts level player is generally a mid- to late-1st and an equivalent prospect. You'd never get 4th overall for that package. So the pertinent question is why has Byram's stock dropped, and is it justified. If you ignore handedness and go by contract and skillset, its a no-brainer that Henri gets moved now. But the handedness thing just makes it weird. (As an aside, Henri's play this year is the most under-discussed Sabres positive) I can see a world where Ras is RD1 and Henri and Cliffy are 5 and 6 by ice time, but one of them is on the RD2 in terms of the lineup card Most pissed-off guy on the team has to be Ryan Johnson. (As an aside, if you're honest with yourself, Bryson has outplayed him since he's been called up) Chucking him out there with Ras is so on-brand for Buffalo. I've said it before, in his 3rd pro season Mittelstadt was putting up 22 points while going in and out of the lineup. Krebs has an interesting opportunity here.

Thought people might be interested in Byram's Elite Prospects scouting report from his draft year: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/326522/bowen-byram An exceptionally gifted defenceman who knows his strengths and plays by them. He possesses elite skating ability and is at his best when playing high energy, up-tempo hockey. He handles the puck well and is able to keep control of it under pressure. He makes calculated decisions that consistently shift momentum in his team's favor. His creativity in the offensive zone speaks to his confidence in his ability to be a game-changer. Defensively astute, he actively takes away lanes and limits options for the oncoming opposition. All-in-all, Bowen Byram is a workhorse who understands how to take advantage of turnovers and shift the pace of play in his favor in all three zones. (Curtis Joe, EP 2019 He’s an excellent skater, with good balance, explosiveness and a high-end top-gear., EPrinkside.com 2019 Byram does a good job of holding the blue line, and he uses an active stick to interrupt passing lanes and disrupt oncoming puck-carriers, EPrinkside.com 2019 The best aspect of his hockey-sense is his ability to rapidly process the play. This extends to all three-zones, Hockeyprospect.com 2019 Possessing excellent vision, creativity and awareness, he’s a highly-precise passer, Future Considerations 2019 He is a near elite passer from the blueline, just as comfortable with a short pass as with a stretch pass, or flip pass, McKeen's Hockey 2019 And from the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/947751/2019/05/06/wheeler-final-ranking-for-the-2019-nhl-drafts-top-100-prospects/ 5. Bowen Byram — LHD, Vancouver Giants, 6-foot-0 I’ve already broken down Byram’s game as the best defenceman in the draft and a frontrunner for third overall in considerably more detail but the short of it is that while there is still work to be done on his defensive play, particularly with his effort and his spacial awareness within defensive zone schemes, Byram is one of the better goal scoring defencemen the NHL draft has seen in recent memory. Furthermore, he is an excellent three-zone passer and a strong skater who can recover from mistakes made pushing the play into the high slot if the puck goes back the other way. And he just keeps getting better, and better and better. The Byram of the last half of the season and into the playoffs was one of the best players in junior hockey.