rakish

Stand-up. I was trying to make youtube comedy videos in the early 1990s, well before youtube. I decided to look for actors at open-mics, so I started to go to faceboyz open mic and after about a month I decided I might be as good as all these people, so I signed up, and did that for a year or two. The place in the East 90's, Comedy ______, I forget, (not Dangerfields) used to have open mic once a week. A couple times a year everyone would go to the club and sign up 6 months in advance, and part of their open mic is the woman that ran the club would consult for 3 minutes after your stage time. She asked me how often I performed, "Once a week" I lied, because I was performing about once every two weeks. "No. No. No, you gotta do 10 nights a week". If you've seen my podcast, you'd understand that I had a really low ceiling in my standup career, for multiple reasons. 15 years later I decide I still like the writing part, but the audience doesn't want to hear from someone my age, so I decide to write a script about a new performer being taught standup by her father, an updated All in the Family, with a 25 year old woman as meathead living in the basement of her retiring comedian father. My producer friend is interested, so we start development, which falls apart when he insists on doing blaxsploitation, "Dude, I can't write comedy for black people." But I got a lotta friends, what's one less? I decide to produce it on my own, so in 2017 I'm busing up to Queens once a week to shoot at a wonderful open mic, the actress is really good, we shoot about 20 to 25 performances, about an hour of material. She finds a working standup willing to play her father, and it's all good, until the working standup sees it as an updated My Three Sons, "I can't play Archie Bunker, it would be bad for my brand" ... sigh, it's terminally unfunny. So searching around for another actress interrupted by covid: the youtube star who does Sabre game reactions and writes goofy songs would be perfect, she doesn't get back to me, the pole dancer in Arlington would take the project in an entire new direction, she goes to the wrong open mic in DC and changes her mind, the woman working at my dump actually reads the script...thinks about it...not doing it. I gotta new plan... it's not over yet.

@WildCard Answering your question in the Eichel thread. On the one hand Guenther only played 12 games, on the other hand he outscored a good upper class player (Neighbors, but I would need to check box scores to see how Guenther played with Neighbors) and his numbers at age 16 are pretty good too. I got a month to think about it.

I erred last year with my draft board. I think I believed that since there was no way Rossi was going to be there at 8, I didn't really need to think about whether I wanted Rossi or Jarvis.

Ok, @WildCard, I spent a couple hours trying to answer your 2 questions, how do potential returning Eichel trade fruit compare and how do this years draft fruit fit in to previous drafts. So I took my model which is based on eliteprospects data (no PP split) and jammed in the pick224 data which splits out the even strength points, I used EV P1/gp. I couldn't use everyone as pick224 does not go back very far for say Liiga, but I think this gives you an idea. This solidifies my belief that we're not looking at a weak draft, it's just not very deep. 1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 1746 2 Jack Hughes (F)USDP 18 1531 3 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1444 4 Dylan Guenther***WHL 1320 5 Quinton Byfield OHL 1289 6 Seth Jarvis WHL 1192 7 William Eklund***SHL 1125 8 Marco Rossi OHL 1014 9 Matthew Beniers***NCAA 1012 10 Andrei Svechnikov (F)OHL 976 11 Alexis LafrenièreQMJHL 960 12 DYLAN STROME OHL 819 13 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 760 14 CODY GLASS WHL 741 15 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 662 16 Lucas Raymond SHL 640 17 NICO HISCHIER QMJHL 630 18 Trevor Zegras (F)USDP 18 605 19 Kirby Dach (F)WHL 585 20 Brady Tkachuk (F)NCAA 563 21 NOLAN PATRICK WHL 557 22 Dylan Cozens (F)WHL 539 23 Jack Hughes (F)USHL 502 24 Trevor Zegras (F)USHL 475 25 Peyton Krebs (F)WHL 360

I get 75. In 5-5 Beniers scores about 75% what Jack did at age 17. Beniers outscored his cohorts by a little more, and they were, as a group, a little better, I might get talked into 80.

I'm just starting to be done putting together my draft list for year 8 (?) of Mom's Basement Stakes, If you need to ketchup, last years' post is over at hfboards. https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/ I has planned on doing podcasts about my process, and all that, but I can explain in about 100 words, so we'll just do that. I use 2 strategies to find draft picks, the first I look for players that outscore their teammates at even strength at their particular age. If you chart everyone, William Stromgren jumps off the page. Big Bill didn't get many PP points in U20 because... well... no one on the team scored during power plays. When he moved to Allsvenskan, he didn't get many PP minutes, or that's my theory anyway. The second strategy looks for overagers, as they are the most underdrafted group of players, last time I checked. Draft analytics use some varient of NHLe, or eNHL, I forget which. This severely punishes players that don't play on the PP, or play on bad teams, or for some reason scores more than his teammates at even strength. I came up with about 10 so far in this group. Beniers, Eklund, Simon Robertsson, Zachary L'Heureux, Stromgren, Connor Roulette, Riley Kidney, Topias Vilen, Eric Alarie, Ryan McCleary. The second group, the overagers, Ryker Evans, Ruben Rafkin, Viktor Hurtig, Simon Knak, Christopher Merisier-Ortiz, Josh Doan. So get your draft board together for Mom's Basement, you'll be competing against Bob McKenzie, Craig Button, and whomever else shows up. You'll need somewhere between 30-80 picks, depending on how much your list resembles McKenzie's.

I don't understand all of this. Bryson signed on April 15, 2019 out of NCAA, why didn't his ELC kick in for the 2018-2019 season?

Both eliteprospects.com and pick224.com would likely answer your question, pick224 separates data more for each player, eliteprospects would have the 10 years or so

Yeah, I had him 6th for the decade

Thank you, I appreciate it

I had Rossi at 1 as well, I just put Lafraniere on top so people wouldn't laugh as hard

Get a nice steak, grill. Roast some root vegetables, carrots are nice. Make some guacamole. Red Wine, I love Gallo's Paisano, I buy it by the gallon.

Button does fine https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/

I'm not saying the 4 coaches are wrong, I'm saying Skinner almost certainly believes the 4 coaches are wrong. It's not me or you making the decision to waive, it's the guy that got bumped off the first line

Maybe they should have played him more on the first line?

Doohickey was talking about Reinhart

Maybe my fav comment of the year

I think it depends if Seattle has an analytics team like Toronto's pre-Bogo or post-Bogo.

It would be nice to know if Seattle has the opportunity to take him, this is why I find the expansion draft unfulfilling. As for my view on Risto, to paraphrase Homer Simpson, Risto is neither the cause of, nor the solution to, the problems of the BS.

missed that

There's one 6x5 assist during that time, on Thompson's goal. Goals BUF #23 REINHART(13), Wrist, Off. Zone, 30 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(6); #55 RISTOLAINEN(6) 23,21,68,55,78,35 BUF #23 REINHART(14), Snap, Off. Zone, 17 ft.Assist: #53 SKINNER(3) 23,53,68,33,44,35 BUF #23 REINHART(15), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 19 ft.Assists: #24 COZENS(5); #10 JOKIHARJU(5) 23,24,53,10,26,31 BUF #23 REINHART(16), Wrist, Off. Zone, 19 ft.Assists: #68 OLOFSSON(14); #53 SKINNER(5) 23,53,68,33,78,31 BUF #23 REINHART(20), Wrist, Def. Zone, 138 ft. 15,23,37,54,55,1 BUF #23 REINHART(21), Slap, Off. Zone, 39 ft.Assists: #26 DAHLIN(18); #31 TOKARSKI(1) 23,53,68,10,26,31 Assists BUF #72 THOMPSON(2), Snap, Off. Zone, 31 ft.Assists: #37 MITTELSTADT(5); #23 REINHART(10)17,23,37,72,4,62 BUF #68 OLOFSSON(10), Wrist, Off. Zone, 35 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(8); #23 REINHART(11)23,21,68,55,78,35 BUF #53 SKINNER(4), Backhand, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assists: #23 REINHART(12); #26 DAHLIN(13)23,53,68,10,26,35 though I haven't updated the last game

For me, when you're structuring your lines, you do so vs opponent first, then sort out the minutes second. Who do you want playing against Marchand's line? For me, it's Cozens with Asplund and Thompson. Who do you next want playing against Marchand's line? I would put Eichel, Skinner, and Pommminville. Is Pommminville in shape? Who knows? Either way, we don't want Pommminville playing the minutes that Eichel does, so we'll play him once a week, or swap him with the 4th line in minutes. Give him a call. "Jason, 9 minutes a week, what do you say?" Next you try to keep Reinhart's line off the ice when Marchand's on the ice. Reinhart like Olofsson is much better away from Eichel because they both defer to Eichel too much. Last, you totally try to hide the Mittlestadt line, who is terrible defensively. (Watch the highlights of the first 2 goals 2 games ago) You only have Mittlestadt on the ice against the top line when you might be trying to lose games, what's that called? I forget. Development, that's what it's called. So by minutes, if you need to number them, they are Eichel, Reinhart, Cozens, Mittlestadt. So by opponent, it's Cozens, Eichel, Reinhart, Mittlestadt.

Yes, Dudacek, that's all a possible reading of their behavior, but at least admit that their are other possible reasons for their behavior. I'm not saying either reading is true.

My nephews theory is that Johansson was traded because he was hated in the room. When the 2020 AHL all star goalie is traded for peanuts and Buffalo ends up playing the 2021 AHL goalie with OK numbers, my eyebrows raise a little. Me and @Hoss talked about this yesterday, the team is playing an odd set of matchups. We talked about it in regards to whether Granato was keeping his job. Mittlestadt plays against the best opposing forwards, Dahlen is getting tougher matchups lately similar to Mittlestadt, to see if they can handle it? Maybe. Not saying they are tanking, but not saying they're not, it's hard to guess motivation from the outside.

I talk to @Hoss for just over an hour. I think you'll agree, Hoss is really good at this.