rakish

I have GA/60 while shorthanded, before Colorado last night, I haven't uploaded yet. A few notes. Johansson is the 'Don't Know' because players need to get a penalty (or shot, or hit, etc) before the system picks up their name. Smith and Frolik are together, because the player is only described by the number, and Curt has complained that since I'm adding 10 seconds, plus 5 seconds, plus 8 seconds (how the data is exported), that the time on ice isn't accurate, he's not totally wrong. Number-Name-GA/60-On ice goals 68 OLOFSSON 30.77 3 26 DAHLIN 19.25 1 58 GILMOUR 14.17 1 10 JOKIHARJU 13.54 13 6 SCANDELLA 11.77 12 13 VESEY 10.81 10 9 EICHEL 10.76 3 33 MILLER 10.68 2 90 JOHANSSON 10.58 3 71 RODRIGUES 10.13 4 74 ASPLUND 9.157 40 HUTTON 8.77 17 28 GIRGENSONS 8.67 23 55 RISTOLAINEN 8.47 25 35 ULLMARK 8.34 25 62 MONTOUR 8.27 7 22 LARSSON 7.85 19 17 SOBOTKA 7.25 3 19 MCCABE 6.80 20 24 PILUT 6.53 2 34 dont know 6.01 1 27 LAZAR 5.45 6 4 BOGOSIAN 4.71 4 67 SMITH/FROLIK 4.57 3 37 MITTELSTADT 0.00 0 20 WILSON 0.00 0 43 SHEARY 0.00 0 53 SKINNER 0.00 0 23 REINHART 0.00 0 21 OKPOSO 0.00 0

@WildCard got me to run my model midseason, I ran the top 60 off of EliteProspects. Historically (I've done this 5 or 6 years now), my top 10 isn't that good, it's really the later rounds that I do better, that said: 1 Marco Rossi 3299 2 Alexis Lafrenière 2594 3 Seth Jarvis 2580 4 Quinton Byfield 2578 5 Cole Perfetti 2453 6 Lucas Raymond 1882 7 Alexander Holtz 1624 8 Rodion Amirov 1542 9 Connor Zary 1466 10 Anton Lundell 1455

His 2018 wasn't good, so 2's a bit high, but his 2019 was really good.

I have Jarvis at 2. As liger points out, Jarvis has a big scoring gap on the rest of his team, my model loves that.

Don't know on Jarvis, I used to do a Christmas valuation (my computer scrapes for about a week or two), but I don't valuate twice anymore. So I won't have an opinion until May or June. I did do 18 year old valuation this year from the 2019 draft, my model thinks Cozens is a lot like Cody Glass.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/201952/seth-jarvis 24 (elite) and 32 (future consids)

My math in my head isn't what it once was, closer to 22 or 23% with Malkin

I got about 18% if the time with Malkin, mostly played with McCann His 5-5 scoring rate would put him second on Buffalo.

We can talk about anything you want to talk about

So for those of you who aren't loyal listeners to the podcast. What Taro is talking about is that I'm counting the number of passes in the Sabres highlights that 'Move the Goaltender'. I believe the Sabres organization maximize the number of shots (listen to how many times Rob Ray, who talks to coaches, uses the phrase 'Pucks to the net') rather that maximize high percentage opportunities. Taro's right, It is true that there is a lot of borderline passes that can be perceived either way, it's not a scientific count. I'm also only counting passes on highlights, since I can't compare all of Buffalo's passes vs. other team on highlights. That said, to Eichel: The first 29 games Eichel set up people 22 times, 12 to Olofsson, the other 10 fairly evenly distributed, so almost 1 a game during highlights, actual count would obviously be higher. Games 30-53 (24 games), Eichel set up people 5 times, or about once every 5 games. Since then, until the Columbus game, 54-57 (4 games) 3 passes in 4 games The Columbus game 2 passes. So yes, the past week Eichel has resumed passing the puck after a long stretch of not passing the puck. How does the team do on passes that create opportunites? Eichel 32 Dahlin 19 Reinhart 17 Johansson 16 Skinner 14 Vesey 10 Olofsson 8 Okposo 7 Sheary 7 Risto 7 Larsson 6 ... As a comparison, before I got bored, I was charting Vegas (because they are mostly a collection of players other teams didn't really like) games. So in about 2/3 the number of games, 36 instead of 56: March 24 Stone 22 Pacioretti 21 Karlsson 13 Smith 16 Stastny 7 Carrier 11 Eakin 8 Glass 7 The dropoff on the Sabres after Eichel is huge, where Vegas, as a team, moves the puck horizontal. Coaching? GM? I think it's a little of both.

Eichel stopped passing the puck to other players around game 29 against Calgary, so Olofsson became an assist guy between 29 and when he was injured. I'll be watching to see if Eichel goes back to how he played at the beginning of the season.

and that's why he needs to go

So Flagg, what's causing this?

I was going to say 'confirmation bias', but your's is funnier

@Taro T number 3. We cover the usual topics: Botterill, O'Reilly, fracking. https://youtu.be/rLW0xTlS7Bg

Crazy talk

So what was the plan, save money for the week? Have him ready in Rochester if someone got hurt? Or is Botterill just trolling @LGR4GM at this point?

Sorry for the delay getting back, houseguest often mean painting rooms. How I get the numbers explains why they aren't very accurate. NHL puts out what they call the HTML report, which lists all the events of a game. An example is http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20192020/PL020752.HTM If you look at that report, at event 5, at 11 seconds, 9,23,13,55,62,35 were on the ice for the past 11 seconds, so I add 11 seconds to each player's time on ice. It isn't an accurate method of keeping track of time, so in the end, I have Bogo's short handed time on ice as 50.97 minutes, whereas NHL.com is measuring Bogo's TOI more accurately (presumably), has Bogo having 41.5 minutes, therefore our GA/60 are different, I'm at 4.71. NHL.com is at 5.79, Hockey reference is at 7.1. It would be great if I had more accurate stats, but using the method I do allows me to see each player's stats more granularly. Going to Joki, after Nashville, I have him at 13.72, while NHL.com is at 10.87 and Hockey reference is at 10.8.

Cool, thanks, I'll look into it

You're taking notes when you watch, no?

Don't know, maybe my software is wrong. If you tell me an example, I'll try to track it down

On ice goals/60, followed by the number of goals on ice for. I haven't uploaded the Nashville game yet 26 DAHLIN 22.64 1 68 OLOFSSON 20.51 2 10 JOKIHARJU 14.25 10 58 GILMOUR 14.17 1 6 SCANDELLA 11.77 12 13 VESEY 11.19 10 90 JOHANSSON 10.60 3 9 EICHEL 9.82 2 40 HUTTON 9.75 14 71 RODRIGUES 9.70 3 74 ASPLUND 9.15 7 33 MILLER 9.11 1 28 GIRGENSONS 8.33 20 55 RISTOLAINEN 8.1421 35 ULLMARK 7.35 21 17 SOBOTKA 7.25 3 22 LARSSON 6.73 15 19 MCCABE6.65 17 62 MONTOUR 6.21 3 24 PILUT 5.45 1 4 BOGOSIAN 4.92 4 67 SMITH/FROLIK 4.20 1 27 LAZAR 3.37 2 37 MITTELSTADT 0.00 0 21 OKPOSO 0.00 0 43 SHEARY 0.00 0 53 SKINNER 0.00 0 20 WILSON 0.00 0 23 REINHART 0.00 0

Joki has terrible numbers on the PK this year. Kreuger tried that. Dahlin isn't ready, you don't hurry children that age. Liger, it's a terrible reason that they don't have anyone else. It's what incompetent GM's do.

The appropriate question isn't whether Bogo is the 8th best defenseman (which of course he is), the question Kreuger has to ask himself is he among the 4th best penalty killers (which he is). What you'all are reacting to is Botterill's crazy structuring of the team. Look at the last year and a half, the defensive players brought in: Dahlen, Montour, Joki, Gilmore, Miller, and Pilut. How many of those guys should play on your PK? Zero. Since Risto plays 1 of the 2 PP slots and 1 of the 4 PK slots, you're good with one of Montour, Joki, Gilmor, Miller, and Pilut not needing to play a special team. During this time, out went a reasonable PK player in Scandella. Now I think Dahlen and Joki will get there in a few years, and Montour has pretty good numbers despite the ugly PK goal in Nashville this week and certainly known as an offensive player, and Miller has some really good stats, despite neither Kreuger (Miller is the Sabres' most protected player at even strength) nor Vegas willing to play him on the PK last year. So if Botterill has brought in even a couple replacement level PK players, I can see the hate in this thread, sure, replace Bogo with them. But, for me, Bogo and Pilut play different positions, and you can't replace one with the other. You would think structuring a team this way would lead to a terrible PK, which is where the Sabres are. Kreuger is trying to deal with his incompetent GM by playing 11-7, which gives Eichel too many minutes, leading to games like Nashville where they ran out of gas.

Yeah, that would account for some, Eichel's 6th was with Mittelstadt and Risto. Miller's 1st was with Eichel and Johansson. Eichel lost a plus minus (if they are counted this way) when he, Olofsson, and Risto gave up a goal.