rakish

As did I, though Nadeau was off the board by that point.

@LGR4GM The 500 posts for the week is, um... impressive, more than 70 per day. Mom's Basement for 2021. I think people under-emphasize the importance of order vs. valuation. A look at my board (page 79 in this topic) you'll see that if I had Cossa...Zellweger... Olsson instead of Stankoven...Olsson, I would have gained for myself a #14 pick I essentially didn't use, so I wasted the #14 pick by putting Cossa one spot behind Stankoven. Draftlook has the same issue, by drafting Wallstadt first (as compared to Liger's pick of Wallstadt at #14), Draftlook ended up with Wallstadt and Lambos instead of Eklund and Wallstadt, essentially trading #1 for the player selected #26. I thought draftlook had more picks than they did, that's why they ran out of selections, I think they listed 32 picks. Liger ran out of picks for the last one, as did Button. I was hoping to draft a goalie, I missed a couple opportunities by just one pick, oh well. The downside to having to make my list beforehand. Sabres #1 Owen Power (D),#14 Isak Rosén (F),#33 Prokhor Poltapov (F),#53 Alexander Kisakov (F) #88 Stiven Sardaryan (F),#95 Joshua Bloom (F),#97 Olivier Nadeau (F),#159 Viljami Marjala (F) #161 William von Barnekow (F),#188 Nikita V. Novikov (D),#193 Tyson Kozak (F) Pronman #1 Owen Power,#14 Chaz Lucius,#33 Nikita Chibrikov,#53 Kirill Kirsanov, #88 Justin Robidas, #95 Olivier Nadeau, #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Lorenzo Canonica (not drafted) #161 Daniil Lazutin (not drafted), #188 Ty Gallagher, #193 Daniil Pylenkov Liger #1 William Eklund, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson #88 Dylan Duke, #95 Robert Orr #97 Sean Tschigerl, #159 Elias Stenman (not drafted) #161 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #188 Simon Motew (not drafted), #193 xxxxxx Wheeler #1 Owen Power, #14 Chaz Lucius, #33 Sasha Pastujov, #53 Sean Behrens (D) #88 Dylan Duke (F) #95 Joshua Roy #97 Connor Roulette, #159 Peter Reynolds (not drafted) #161 Jeremy Wilmer (not selected), #188 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #193 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted) Button #1 Owen Power, #14 Fedor Svechkov, #33 Samu Tuomaala (F), #53 Benjamin Gaudreau (G) #88 Dylan Duke #95 James Malatesta (F) #97 Robert Orr (F), #159 Hunter Strand (not drafted) #161 Dmitri Zugan (not drafted), #188 Nikita V. Novikov (D), #193 xxxxxxxxx Sam (@draftlook) #1 Jesper Wallstedt, #14 Carson Lambos, #33 Sasha Pastujov, #53 Sean Behrens (D) #88 xxxxxxxxx 42jerks #1 Owen Power, #14 Jack Peart, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Sasha Pastujov #88 Aidan Hreschuk (D), #95 Conner Roulette (F), #97 Guillaume Richard (D), #159 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted) #161 Francesco Arcuri (F), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Zack Stringer FCHockey #1 Owen Power, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson (F) #88 Dylan Duke (F), #95 Ty Voit (F), #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Matvei Petrov (F) #161 Connor Lockhart (F), #188 Dmitri Katelevsky, #193 Trevor Wong (not drafted) rakish #1 Dylan Guenther, #14 Logan Stankoven, #33 Anton Olsson, #53 Connor Roulette #88 Jack O'Brien (not drafted), #95 Victor Stjernborg, #97 Niko Huuhtanen (F), #159 Simon Knak (F) #161 Mikey Milne (not drafted), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Rhett Rhinehart (not drafted)

I haven't worked on this chart in a while, so it's not current. But here's 5 2nd rounders, 2 successful, and 4 Sabre picks. That is Aho the Finn. I gave you an extra year (to 18 or dy+1). Two dots means he played on 2 different teams

For me it's an NHL problem. Take him off the board, put him back in the draft next year. There's zero benefit to alienating a significant group of potential fans.

I find it hilarious that Montreal took Logan what's his name. How could they be so out of touch?

no

Liger, do you pay Charlie or something?

A member of HFB joins Mom's Basement for the second consecutive year, giving Mom's 9 contestants. 42jerks board: Power Peart Olausson Koivunen Pastujov Kapanen Salminen Hreschuk Martino Roulette Harrison C Dach Helenius G Richard Ervasti Brabenec Cardwell Chiasson Hinds Alarie Stringer Guevin Alexander MacInnes

This is 5-5, so there's no PK involved. I could only look at the road, but if XGA is degree of difficulty, it doesn't really matter if Buffalo was trying to play Dahlen against Marchand or not, it only matters if he did.

Thanks for watching. I'll link the two charts so you don't have to watch the video. In the first png, I think you can make your argument that if you look down the 'right side' of the line, or look down the 'left side' of the line, you can differentiate between good defensive play and bad defensive play. I'm rejecting that argument, saying that expected goals against, or what I call 'should have against' IS difficulty of opponent. I'm arguing that Brad Marchand decides how many shots he's going to get, Brad's opponents' only job on defense is to make sure he gets worse shots. I'm arguing that your expected goals against is really just how much you are on the ice with Marchand. This turns the analytics value system upside down, as they believe that, say, Rasmus Dahlen is good because the stats say he's not on the ice for a lot of shots. I'm arguing that what that means is that Rasmus Dahlen is bad because the Sabres try to avoid having him on the ice with Marchand. I call this the analytics death spiral because the Sabres (as they are deep into analytics) are purging the good players who play against Marchand, and signing to long term contracts the bad players who don't play against Marchand, because the Sabres believe XGA is important, while I argue that their valuation is upside down. So therefore, for me, the relevant chart is the second one, as it tells you the difference between the expected goals and the actual goals, which is more or less shooting percentage. in raw values, I have Reinhart's expected goals against as 2.71 per 60, and what actually went into the net was 3.83 per 60. Which is worst on the team, not counting Caggiula and Dea.

Last call on Mom's Basement Stakes. The rules are simple, post a draft board, we take the highest undrafted player left on your board each time the Sabres pick. This is year 8, the previous history is posted over at hfb https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630 Unless someone jumps in here at the last moment, this years eight contestants look like me, (listed on page 79 or so above), Liger has a PDF (maybe page 81 or 82 above), the usual suspects: Pronman, Wheeler, Button, and two boards that interest @LGR4GM Sam on Twitter (@draftlook) https://draftlook.netlify.app/ and FC Hockey https://nhlentrydraft.com/rankings/, and of course, the Buffalo Sabres

Part 3 of my series on Analytics. Part 1 is called Risto and can found a page or 2 back, it's a general introduction at 14 min, if I remember correctly. The second part is a 29 minute slog into what your data analysis tools need to do for you, it's a tough road, I get it. It can be found on my podcast page and is called Reinhart. Part 3, at about 7 minutes, I argue that analytics misinterpret a key variable, which they call XGA, which leads them to value the poor defensive players and get rid of the good defensive players, creating the analytics death spiral. I forgot to mention that in the first chart 5 players don't appear, the only 2 of consequence are Eichel and McCabe. I'm trying to demonstrate the relationship between what I call 'Should Have Goals Against' (they call XGA) and the quality of competition.

Nathan Bastian was, of course, a gimme.

How many times do I need to apologize for this for it to go away?

Which is all true, but I really think y'all are overthinking this. It's like last draft, their magic formula said Quinn. They could have traded down 4, maybe 6 spots and Quinn would have still been there, but if you like Quinn, take him.

I think GM's think in terms of value, and not PR. Once Seattle knows you don't want Power, they're not going to give you something so they can select Power, they'll just let you select Eklund. Anaheim? it gets too complex too quickly, you got important questions like Tarasenko or Dunn. As for Florian Elias, I drafted him last year with Buffalo's 6th round pick (See top of this page). I highly distrust the scoring stats in a player's first year in a men's league, so I would value Elias' 17th year in U20 more than his 18th year in DEL. I didn't consider him for my board because I already have him. The first year in a men's league thing is why I will likely get Olsson at pick 33 instead of Zellweger, who I also like.

I don't think the Sabres feel the pressure to pick Power. They chose Quinn last year because that's who they felt was best. I think they take Eklund.

Well, you get, what 30 picks, to find 23 players? This isn't how the draft is going to happen, we don't know enough information about deals, one teams pick will influence other teams picks, we're just talking hockey here. Toronto/Pittsburgh deal indicates to me the Toronto has a deal in place, Pittsburgh doesn't, but I'm just guessing. What about this? I think you can get sufficient goaltending, OK defense, and too many Nathan Bastian type players, who is a pretty good hockey player. What you can't get enough of is power play talent, outside of the odd Tarasenko. What about rolling 3 lines, and having guys that only play power play, but don't play enough defense to get on the ice 5-5? Nikita Gusev comes to mind.

It's kind of exciting when someone sees the same thing live that I see in the data.

I skipped one as I decided Brawndo or Hoss would take my team while I was working on it, so I went with New Jersey. Slim pickins, 2nd place goes to 32 year old UFA goaltender Aaron Dell, if you corner the market on goaltending you might be able to distribute them back for picks. The better option for New Jersey is Nathan Bastian. Played fourth line against the other teams power play forwards and didn't get eaten alive. His shorthanded work? The entire team has scary PK numbers, who coaches that team? He's young(23) and can play a role. Makes 850 or 875, I forget.

Nope, this is last year, Button got Devon Levi in 6th round. Sabres: Quinn 8,Peterka 34,Matteo Costantini 131,Albert Lyckasen 193,Jakub Konecny 216 42jerks: Rossi,Mysak,Ronan Seeley,Michal Gut,Ethan Cardwell McKenzie: Perfetti,Peterka,Brett Berard,Pashin,Oliver Suni Button: Perfetti,Pourier,Pashin,Devon Levi,Pavel Tyutnev Pronman: Perfetti,Gunler,Connor McClennon,Pavel Gogolev,Ivan Didkovskiy Wheeler: Rossi,Gunler,Veeti Miettinen,Alexander Pashin,James Hardie rakish: Rossi,Grans,Rory Kerins,Florian Elias,Eric Juhlin

My memory is that you were busy last year, and never made a list, but I'll look.

My issue with Pastujov was only that pick224 has team USA numbers botched, and I'm not willing to wade through box scores to figure it out. I don't expect to get Zellweger, and Koivunen is even less likely, but my model likes them both fine.

It's great to get your list, I'm not convinced focusing on skating will work, but we'll know more in 3 or 4 years. In the past our draft boards have been pretty close to identical, it's good there will be more divergence this year. I look at Pronman and Button each year and think, What are they thinking, then 3 years later for each it's How'd they do that?

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/ if you want the raw list pi, I might be able to dig them up, Mom only shows the results. I think liger does 1 or 2 drafts, certainly 2018, and I think another