rakish

So @Taro T, what's the latest rule, you waive and the clause is gone forever, or not.

Scott doesn't allow us talking about non-legitimate streams, but are there any legitimate streams?

The little girl is my favorite interaction Shatner has with the Vancouver street scene, but it's not unique. There's some wonderful, and others terrible. The bickering over who gets what performing space kills me.

I listen to Shatners Hairpiece. In my head, I wrote a long and pretentious post about why it's like listening to the Grateful Dead, but I decided to spare you the details.

If you look at Marcus' numbers the last 2 years, he's become a very good scorer, while playing on a defensive line, with nobody that plays on the power play. Marcus has become Mike.

From the OHL?

Danault has deceptive stats because Montreal doesn't use him on the power play. He's very good.

The best prospects is about the top end of the curve, the number of players making active rosters would be the opposite end of the curve, no?

Wait, I haven't been following that thread. They decided they needed to draft like the Pittsburgh Penguins?

Ok, here's my theory. May be a bad theory, here goes: What the list is telling you is you need to make available certain number of players at each position. That eligibility depends on the number of games played. Now that is different than whether a player is eligible or not. Bryson is not eligible because he is a second year player. Borgen is eligible because he is a third year player. Although Bryson signed 2 years ago today, he doesn't become a third year player because he didn't play 10 games in 2018-2019. Since Borgan is eligible, you (the GM) need to consider whether he counts toward the number of required defensemen you need to expose. This is a different calculation Dude, I was not typing yet

Oh, you're probably right. I'm not trying to predict what the Buffalo Sabres are going to do, I merely meant Asplund as a placeholder for a (about a) one million contract. I wonder what Pilut's status is.

I think this is good analysis, but I think the opposite is true. I think the salary cap crunch is stronger than ever, and as such, Seattle will be able to extort more value from each team than Vegas did. I don't think Buffalo will be affected by the increased cap crunch, as they have some cap space, so Seattle will extort other teams. Seattle and Buffalo aren't negotiating on the value of Miller, Seattle is negotiating with the 30 other teams as to what the price is to take an unwelcomed contract off their hands. Buffalo will hear the price of Miller, and correctly, not make a deal. My prediction is the Sabres lose Asplund or Borgan.

Boston:

I've updated the data. Here are the PP times of forwards, I think there's a good correlation between the offensive skill level and the PP time, at least for the Sabres 9 EICHEL3.94 4 HALL3.45 23 REINHART3.38 68 OLOFSSON3.38 37 MITTELSTADT1.99 24 COZENS1.48 12 STAAL1.28 72 THOMPSON1.27 53 SKINNER1.25 21 OKPOSO0.54 25 RUOTSALAINEN0.11 13 RIEDER0.07 74 ASPLUND0.07 27 LAZAR0.06 20 EAKIN0.05 15 SHEAHAN0.05 17 FOGARTY0.05 As to the playing 4 forwards vs. playing 3 forwards. It does affect the goaltenders, since a goaltender will get an entire game against 1 team, the players it should average out, at least past the players who played just a few games.

How many games at forward would Borgan have to play to be called a forward?

Zero?

There are arguments against this type of analysis. @Wildcard doesn't like the difficulty of opponent metric because some forwards on the powerplay aren't that fearsome in 5x5. I think Olofsson would come under this heading for Buffalo. The GED guy argues that in reality there is no difference between who Bryson plays against vs. who Dahlen plays against. That said, I generally look at the defensemen on the ice each time the puck goes in the net, but I'm drinking way too much to keep track of the forwards. The camera shows the other team celebrating the goal, not so much the skate of shame for the team scored against. My current theory is that it's the turning over of the puck at each blue line that leads to goals against. The forwards who get scored upon are those who are trying to skate past the defense, which is Mittlestadts game.

I was think of painting a scene of the 2021 Sabres, the goal light would be on, the goaltender would be flat on the ice, and 26 would be breaking his stick on the crossbar

So plugging the 3.8 back into the chart, is still not good.

goal against team: team 9,20,23,68,4,26 opponent 26,21,62,3,33,30 goal against team: team 13,20,24,26,62,35 opponent 92,43,13,3,33,41 goal against team: team 9,23,4,26,33,34 opponent 13,93,86,56,61,37 goal against team: team 9,23,68,4,26,62 opponent 13,93,86,6,9,37 goal against team: team 12,72,68,26,33,35 opponent 19,43,13,4,74,41 goal against team: team 20,72,68,26,62,35 opponent 20,77,13,2,33,41 goal against team: team 9,23,4,26,33,35 opponent 26,21,62,2,33,41 goal against team: team 9,23,4,26,33,35 opponent 20,93,89,8,79,40 goal against team: team 9,23,4,26,33,35 opponent 16,43,48,77,79,40 goal against team: team 13,20,21,26,33,35 opponent 20,59,14,24,70,41 goal against team: team 15,27,37,26,33,40 opponent 86,11,63,24,28,1 goal against team: team 9,37,68,4,26,55 opponent 17,37,44,28,70,1 goal against team: team 9,23,53,26,33,35 opponent 27,44,26,2,3,40 goal against team: team 12,23,4,26,33,40 opponent 44,26,18,2,6,30 goal against team: team 9,23,68,4,26,33 opponent 12,27,44,3,24,30 goal against team: team 12,72,68,26,62,35 opponent 20,14,73,2,33,41 goal against team: team 20,21,4,26,33,35 opponent 53,15,17,3,4,40 goal against team: team 37,53,4,26,33,40 opponent 14,28,25,9,53,37 goal against team: team 9,23,68,26,55,34 opponent 14,25,86,9,53,79 goal against team: team 12,21,4,26,55,40 opponent 93,13,89,42,79,31 goal against team: team 20,24,4,26,55,34 opponent 7,13,27,4,8,30 goal against team: team 9,23,68,26,55,34 opponent 53,15,17,3,6,30 goal against team: team 9,24,68,26,55,34 opponent 12,29,18,3,4,30 goal against team: team 15,27,53,26,55,34 opponent 7,13,27,4,8,30 goal against team: team 9,24,26,55,62,34 opponent 53,15,17,3,4,30 goal against team: team 9,24,4,26,33,40 opponent 12,29,18,3,6,40 goal against team: team 9,24,4,26,33,40 opponent 53,15,17,3,6,40 goal against team: team 9,24,4,26,33,34 opponent 44,53,15,3,6,30 goal against team: team 23,24,4,26,62,34 opponent 11,13,21,6,61,37 goal against team: team 23,37,4,26,55,34 opponent 7,14,57,2,28,35 goal against team: team 12,23,68,4,26,55 opponent 9,71,17,8,58,35 goal against team: team 12,23,68,4,26,62 opponent 59,87,17,5,58,1 goal against team: team 15,27,26,62,78,40 opponent 92,10,8,73,2,41 goal against team: team 12,23,68,26,33,40 opponent 19,77,8,3,9,41 goal against team: team 12,23,68,26,33,40 opponent 92,10,13,3,33,41 goal against team: team 13,20,21,26,62,40 opponent 12,46,21,67,75,41 goal against team: team 12,23,68,4,26,33 opponent 10,16,24,23,55,71 goal against team: team 12,15,68,26,33,31 opponent 9,14,18,4,5,35 goal against team: team 27,37,68,26,33,31 opponent 59,87,17,8,58,35 goal against team: team 27,37,53,10,26,31 opponent 11,57,67,4,5,1 goal against team: team 15,37,53,68,10,26 opponent 59,87,17,4,6,1 goal against team: team 17,23,4,10,26,35 opponent 13,37,88,10,48,73 goal against team: team 15,23,68,10,26,35 opponent 11,13,25,5,6,37 goal against team: team 15,53,74,10,26,31 opponent 10,16,43,8,42,31 goal against team: team 37,72,4,10,26,35 opponent 10,16,24,23,55,31 These are Dahlen's 45 goals against 5x5. I tabbed the 8 I think are empty net, but I may have missed some. So his 4.6 can be reduced to maybe 3.8 doing rough math in my head, since, as you say, he's not on the ice for a long time during empty net.

I haven't been watching the games, though I've seem most of the highlights, so I haven't been chatty too much about the Sabres, but this week I made some charts, the data's a couple games behind. The chart below displays goals against/60 5x5 vs. the difficulty of opponent (also 5x5), trying to add some contextuality (difficulty of opponent) to a non-contextual stat (goals against). I measure the difficulty of opponent by how many minutes of PP ice time the opponent forwards average. So if you are on the ice against Marchand (who might get 5 min of PP per game), and Pasternk (lets say 4 min), and Bergeron (lets say 3 min), for that time period, your opponent forward's PP ice time would be 12 minutes. Dea, Smith, and Borgan were removed to make the chart prettier. So a few thoughts from the chart. I expected the chart to be a line of dots from top right to bottom left. That the players more often playing against Marchand, would have the most goals scored against them, but the chart, more or less, is a line of dots from top left to bottom right. Meaning that even though Bryson play against the toughest assignments, he's still on the ice for fewer goals than most everyone else. Even though Dahlen is on the ice against the weakest of competition, he still is on the ice for the most goals. The Sabres have given Risto the toughest assignment for years, though this year Bryson gets the toughest assignments. It's not Eakin killing the Sabres, it's Mittlestadt. Why was Montour traded? Lazar doesn't have the usage I thought he would have. I would have to count empty net goals against by hand.

I was misquoted. I obviously meant The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki

At the time, I agreed with this regarding Draisaitl, but I'll make a couple podcasts in June as to why I have changed my mind

Steinel is famous for his rant last season? on the radio. Martin makes youtube videos like this: