nfreeman

Nailed it!

Love the optimism but...

Well, you might think Sam is a 38-42 pt guy who disappears for long stretches, puts up numbers in garbage time, is a net negative in the defensive zone and in the locker room and will be useless in the playoffs and has hit his ceiling, or some combination of those negatives. Or you just might like the guy coming back more than you like Sam.

I'm basing it on the fact that Olofsson can become a UFA in a few months and would then be able to choose from a large number of interested teams, most of which seem objectively like a more attractive situation than the Sabres. Hopefully Mick is correct about his comments and contacts with the Sabres over the years being good indicators that he won't leave.

Well, I've called Reino the slowest player on the team because he is in fact the slowest player on the team, both in tight and in longer runs. I agree that he uses his vision, anticipation, hockey IQ and passing skills to make plays -- but those factors don't make him not slow -- they allow him to play at the NHL level, which he would otherwise be unable to do. To be clear, I agree that he looks reborn over the past month or so, and I am glad to see it (and I will note that GAFan noted Reino's proclivity for slow starts and strong 2nd halves several times -- so good on him for that one). However, no one should forget that he AGAIN didn't show up this season until the horse had left the barn and gone to the glue factory. All the pressure is off, both on Reino and on the team as a whole. They aren't getting the opponents' A games, or even their B games. I'm pretty far away from assuming that either the Sabres or Reino will start off next season looking like they do right now. And I sure as heck don't want to give Reino a fat contract this summer.

Well, I don't think anyone is opposed to giving Olofsson and/or Smith shots at the big leagues. My point is simply that (i) if he's a UFA in a few months (and Hammy could certainly be wrong about that), it's at least 50/50 that he decides to sign elsewhere and (ii) of course it would be great if he were as good as Panarin, but it's much more likely that he's as effective as Antipin.

Because there are plenty of teams that can use a young, cheap scoring winger and that are also much better teams than the Sabres and, depending on one's perspective, in more desirable cities. It's also pretty ill-advised to depend on a 170-lb rookie who's never played in NA to hold down a top winger spot.

Pretty good article. Thanks.

Couple of nuggets from the WGR article that I found interesting: I hate to say it, but if he's good, it would seem that there's a good chance that he signs elsewhere.

I’ve seen a good amount of Halak, as he plays in town here. He’s had a rocky year this year but was at least as good as Lehner last year and the year before. He also handled a similarly dysfunctional situation better than Lehner did. If you’re going to consider sv% over the past 3 years as a persuasive stat — which is reasonable— then Blue’s point about him being 26th in sv% this year is similarly persuasive. And 26th is below the mediocre tier and solidly in the “likely not a starter next year” tier. It’s also worth noting IMHO that his sv% has gotten worse each year during that period. This is part of the reason I don’t think I’m “throwing out the stats” (although I admit to throwing them out when it comes to comparing Lehner and Price, as I suspect pretty much everyone would).

Wow. Outstanding.

Which logic am I omitting to use? The common sense/eye test approach yields the unavoidable verdict that he's someone who goes to pieces in crunch time, who repeats the same killer mistakes (coming off the post, depositing fat rebounds on the doorstep, not cutting off the crossing pass, etc.) over and over and who simply does not deliver wins. In addition, in Lehner's case (unlike with Price), the common sense/eye test approach is consistent with the stats -- Lehner is in the bottom 20% of NHL starters. I don't disagree that there is a good tier of goalies and a mediocre tier, and that Lehner COULD be part of the mediocre tier along with 10-12 others and COULD be starting somewhere else next year. However, (i) there is a significant likelihood that he is instead in the "bad enough to be below the mediocre tier and thus not starting somewhere next year" tier and (ii) we've all seen plenty of him at this point -- wouldn't you rather take a shot on someone else? Maybe the next Gibson or Anderson or Schneider or Bernier or Vasilevsky (which Lehner was supposed to be but isn't)?

This is the ultimate “stats vs common sense” comment. Price is a possible HOFer. Lehner is likely in his 2nd and last year as an NHL starter. Price is having a down year on a team in decline. Lehner is simply showing that he doesn’t have the right stuff. Leaving contracts aside, is there a hockey fan, observer, coach or GM anywhere who wouldn’t rather have Price for the next 4 seasons than Lehner? Of course not.

Just watched the Arrival (alien movie with Amy Adams and Jeremy Renner). Free on Amazon Prime. OK but not great. B or B-minus.

I think it's fair to say that Harrington is often right when criticizing the on-ice results -- but literally anyone with eyes could do that. I also think he adds essentially zero value in terms of hockey analysis or knowledge of NHL dynamics or behind-the-scenes machinations at the Sabres.

And he is freaking terrible in the 3rd period, OT and the SO.

Let's have 'em. I voted: No -- I cannot see a playoff team giving him the keys to their postseason. 4th-rounder -- I cannot see anyone other than a drunk and impulsive GMTM parting with anything of value for him. No -- there have to be consequences for being this big of a disappointment.

Why? Wouldn't his absolute best move be Mick's suggestion -- ie best contract from a good team?

It looked pretty bad to me.

I wonder if Howie thinks B-loo can be a good NHL defenseman with enough experience.

That would be great, but highly unlikely IMHO. He's out of gas. He'll most likely play 8-10 min per game with a bunch of healthy scratches, or perhaps they'll waive him as they did with Moulson.

How dare you. There is NFW that Pommer walks away from $5.6MM.

It gives me no pleasure to say it, but I will reiterate my earlier claim that Lehner is the worst starting goalie in Sabres history. In addition to yet another late-game choke on the GWG, the GAs that ROR didn't score also resulted from poor goaltending (i.e. fat rebounds deposited on the doorstep). Yes, the team has many other flaws, but a young team simply needs better goaltending than this -- among other reasons, to close out wins and build confidence. I think it's at least 50/50 that they let him walk for nothing this summer. On the positive side, Reino's pass to Eichel for the PPG was very sweet.

I agree with most of this, except: - Taking Pommer's contract -- specifically, the increased cost relative to Ennis' contract -- was part of the price for getting Scandella. - I think McCabe is close to a lock to be here next year.

Well, 2 questionable TD calls on Philly TDs went against the Pats in the SB. How does that fit with the "the NFL wants the Pats to win" conspiracy theory?