tom webster

It amazes what is considered publishable articles in today’s world. It’s almost incoherent, jumping back and forth, taking a few shots at the Pegulas, throws in a line about rookies being sent home, returns to start talking again about other investors. Its like journal entries that can’t be tied together.

I’m never sure with anyone or anything any more. Either way, there should definitely be “A Holzinger Factor.”

That came into play during their ten year “drought” of winning between 2005/2015.

I was only kidding. However, you know Holzinger would have been an analytics darling for at least a couple of years before people figured it out.

So if I understand expected goals, Brian Holzinger and Gary MacAdam should be in the hall of fame based on this stat alone.

It seems more and more people putting Gabriel’s on the overrated sign of the ledger. I still like their wings but customer service sucks and it’s not a surprise because owner is a jerk.

Agreed. I’d like to see the graphs because I’m not sure that is true. I know I perform better when emitting a more pleasant odor.

I think hot garbage tends to smell a lot worse.

No, they actually drafted horribly except for one sixth round pick that turned everything around. That coupled with Belichek’s coaching genius and ability to not get too loyal to any players other then TB and a select few. Finally, being in a division that virtually guaranteed you a first round bye was the icing on the cake. A confluence of luck, sociopathic loyalty and brilliant coaching strategy.

And that’s what we will find out but do not know. I’m really not trying to be difficult. I think this is all fascinating. I’ve said before, I’m a numbers guy, almost became an actuary, have debated re-immersing my sixty year old brain back into the study almost entirely in order to have an intelligent conversation with you and two friends/acquaintances whom I also respect. However, I am also a results guy and right now the study is incomplete. I’m still yet to be convinced that your system versus luck can withstand the cost /benefit test and I’m truly trying to be open minded about what to expect.

Again, my only true disagreement with you is that, in my opinion, you are speaking in absolutes where there are none. It will be a fascinating couple of years as the evidence unfolds.

And it’s all objective and while I continue to say how much I respect and appreciate your insight and analysis, while the numbers are fascinating what I want my team to do after the first few picks is find the outlier. It might be fun talking about Justin Bailey or Nic Baptiste for a few years but I’d rather see a VO come out of nowhere. At this point you have no idea how any of these guys will end up yet. Robertson could turn out to be an awesome top six forward but the odds are he is more likely to end up a small tweener, a gadget player who excels on the third line but can’t handle top line minutes. The real point is that while it all makes for interesting message board fodder, no one really knows or will know for a few years who really hit a home run in June of 2019. Right now you win the Rex Ryan award for winning the off season.

You may end up being right, in fact on at least Robertson you probably are, but we are a long way from knowing definitively. It’s not about picking guys who make top prospects lists or roster fill ins.

While I generally agree with this, this isn’t one of those situations. A) He was the first person they wanted to interview after firing Murray B) The only two franchises that fit the “rumor” are Buffalo and New Jersey. All that being said, it was almost certainly New Jersey that considered him this time.

Are you sure? Dubas is all about analytics and I would be very surprised if the Leafs have any interest at all in Risto.

In my opinion, they are both guys ideally suited for third line but with ability to fill in when needed up top.

OK.

Kane has in the past admitted to being intrigued with finishing his career in Buffalo. Kane and Sam would be unbelievable together right now. Kane has also grown up quite a bit in the last few years. Finally, I still get the sense that Kane and Eichel have some differences between them.

Economic downturns always widen the gap. Those with liquidity or able to get liquid assets buy cheap. On a much different level, you want to buy a boat? There are deals to be had all over WNY.

As I stated in another thread, the flat cap is going to have a dramatic effect on guys like Johann. Historically the stars get paid, young guys are used as filler and the middle class gets squeezed. He might decide Sweden's the answer. The fact that the cap could stay flat for three years further complicates things as guys like him can’t just sign for one year and hope to make it up on next contract.

I don’t think it’s happening but not because of NTC. He’s a huge Bills fan and spends a lot of time in area.

And that’s the $69,000 question and I believe JBOT’s great failing although maybe partially attributable to his inexperience and it being his first gig. I’ve been told close to the same thing as Brawndo with a minor detail or two different. TPEGS was furious with ROR but he can be reasoned with as long as transgression doesn’t involve Kim. He could have been talked down. A good manager could have easily explained how the numbers worked. A good manager could probably even convinced that sending ROR to Carolina was some kind of punishment although it really wouldn’t have been. Just to clarify, ROR’s presser was not what infuriated TPEGS although it may have been the tipping point.

Larsson will be interesting. When cap space shrinks what invariably happens is that the middle class gets squeezed out. Johan might find his only option is overseas or taking a lot less money to play elsewhere in the NHL.

It should be noted that Dudley has had several opportunities to come here and hasn’t. I said right at the beginning that he would be a good hire but his reputation has always been he doesn’t play well with others.

Actually, yes and after being separated for about two years I could be talked into just about anything, especially if you have access to the same drugs.?