carpandean

By the way, Sabres went 2-15-2 over their final 19 last year. Do that again and we'd only need Arizona to pick up 2 points and Edmonton to pick up 3 points to finish last again. Edit: Oilers might need 4 if both our wins are ROWs.

No, we could easily finish above Edmonton and Arizona, and then there is a better than 50-50 chance (1-0.2-0.135-0.115 = 0.55) that we pick 4th .

May very well come down to the two head-to-head games. If we win both in regulation, then all-else-equal (i.e., the other 17 games), our lead would be down to the ROW tie-breaker only (currently 16 vs. 12.) As I said in another thread, if Neuvirth starts either, then somebody should be fired.

Exactly my thoughts.

That only works if the team at 2 is willing to trade out. Even if it's Edmonton, I can't see them trading. They'd take Eichel and then trade one or more of their other top picks for a dman.

Last year, the chance was 75% that we drafted second, which they increased to 80% this year. So, since they are independent draws, the chance that such a team would draft second twice is: (.75)(.80) = 0.60 60% ETA: 35% chance of drafting first once and 5% chance of winning both lotteries. And, no, losing last year does not affect the odds this year, so conditional on losing it last year, the probability of losing both is 80%.

In the remaining 31GP that season, though, he had 21G, 36A for 57P, which pace-wise would be 26G, 44A, 70P in 38GP. That's very comparable to the paces of everyone other than McDavid. Admittedly, I haven't checked to see what the rest did over the remainder of their seasons.

There was a little more to it than that. Here, maybe this will help: ;)

Not sure anyone caught what I did there.

Yeah, even in the best case (finish 30th), there's an 80% chance that some other GM is saying, "With the Number One overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, the ..." The question is, whether we are guaranteed to pick 2nd if that happens (finish 30th), have a 23% chance (conditional on not picking first) of picking 2nd (finish 29th) or have no chance of picking 2nd (finish 28th or better.) As I've stated elsewhere, the chance of getting one of the top two is: 30th - 100% 29th - 33.5% 28th - 11.5% 27th - 9.5% 26th - 8.5% 25th - 7.5% ...

No it ain't.

Yeah, clearly apus hasn't heard how good Jack Eichel is. If McDavid weren't ahead of him being referred to as the next Crosby, Eichel would be the coveted prize touted as (arguably) the best prospect since Crosby. You finish last, there's 100% chance that you get a projected generational player. The problem is if you finish 29th, then it's 13.5% chance of McDavid and 20% chance of Eichel (basically, 1 in 3 chance of a potentially generational player), with the other 2/3 dropping you to a very good, probably top-pairing, some chance of franchise, defenseman in Noah Hanifin. Finish 28th (hopefully, the worst case scenario at this point), it's 11.5% McDavid, 0% Eichel, 33.5% Hanifin and 55% your choice of one of three very good (but likely not elite) forward prospect (Marner, Strome, Crouse) or a similarly-billed defense prospect (Provorov).

Not sure what I'd do for the remaining 20 games, as a whole, but I would be very clear that if I see Neuvirth in net at the start of one of the games against the Coyotes, EVERYONE IS FIRED!!!!!!!!!

Basically, it seems like ... McDavid would have been the consensus #1 pick in any draft since 2005. Eichel would likely have been the #1 in each, consensus in many, but up for debate in a couple (e.g., 2008). Hannafin might not have been the #1 pick even last year.

Fixed. :sick:

Makes up for all those years of being angry when they lost games against bad teams with the playoffs on the line while we were cheering for winning. :P

So, it wasn't bad enough for them to hurt their points advantage and their ROW advantage, but Gionta had to toss in an EN with 2 seconds left to help cut into that goal differential lead, too. :doh:

And Rangers break 3-3 tie with just over 2 minutes left in regulation against Arizona.

:wallbash:

Any "value of picks" discussion that lumps the whole first round together isn't very useful. I would break it down into at least three distinct groups, which would have less in common with each other than the final four rounds have between them.

There's a Complaint Thursday thread to complain about people putting trade speculation in the trade deadline thread ... and for complaining about people jumping on you for putting trade speculation in the trade deadline thread ... and for complaining about how you got jumped on as a new poster ... and ...

First, you have to judge a trade on the information available at the time. When it went down, any GM in the league would have rated Cody much higher on "offensive potential" than Zack. Second, before this season, Cody was far more productive than Zack. He was averaging a fairly consistent 20-25G, 25-30A, ~50P (per 82GP) pace versus Zack's maybe (less consistent, so based mainly off of last season) 15G, 15-20A, 30-35P pace. This season, Cody has a scoring on 3.7% of shots, whereas Zack is scoring on 19.6%. Neither one of those is sustainable. I would still be willing to bet that Cody has a 50P season again before Zack does (even after scaling for GP.) It just may have to be somewhere else for him to get his head on straight.

Unless GMTM is comfortable drafting 4th this summer, Lindback better get some starts.

Doesn't quite work that way. Unless the Islanders fall out the playoffs (not going to happen with .500 hockey), then their pick, as well as St. Louis', will be determined by where they finish in the playoffs, first, then their regular season record. Going off of memory, it goes: first two round losers in reverse order of regular season position (except division winners, if any, draft latest, even their record was worse than a non-division winner), conference finals losers in reverse order of regular season performance, SC loser, SC winner. The PT winner could then draft anywhere between 27th-30th and the last team to squeak into the playoffs could still draft as late as 30th.

Should work the other way, too, even if it is your own goalie ...