carpandean

Makes up for all those years of being angry when they lost games against bad teams with the playoffs on the line while we were cheering for winning. :P

So, it wasn't bad enough for them to hurt their points advantage and their ROW advantage, but Gionta had to toss in an EN with 2 seconds left to help cut into that goal differential lead, too. :doh:

And Rangers break 3-3 tie with just over 2 minutes left in regulation against Arizona.

:wallbash:

Any "value of picks" discussion that lumps the whole first round together isn't very useful. I would break it down into at least three distinct groups, which would have less in common with each other than the final four rounds have between them.

There's a Complaint Thursday thread to complain about people putting trade speculation in the trade deadline thread ... and for complaining about people jumping on you for putting trade speculation in the trade deadline thread ... and for complaining about how you got jumped on as a new poster ... and ...

First, you have to judge a trade on the information available at the time. When it went down, any GM in the league would have rated Cody much higher on "offensive potential" than Zack. Second, before this season, Cody was far more productive than Zack. He was averaging a fairly consistent 20-25G, 25-30A, ~50P (per 82GP) pace versus Zack's maybe (less consistent, so based mainly off of last season) 15G, 15-20A, 30-35P pace. This season, Cody has a scoring on 3.7% of shots, whereas Zack is scoring on 19.6%. Neither one of those is sustainable. I would still be willing to bet that Cody has a 50P season again before Zack does (even after scaling for GP.) It just may have to be somewhere else for him to get his head on straight.

Unless GMTM is comfortable drafting 4th this summer, Lindback better get some starts.

Doesn't quite work that way. Unless the Islanders fall out the playoffs (not going to happen with .500 hockey), then their pick, as well as St. Louis', will be determined by where they finish in the playoffs, first, then their regular season record. Going off of memory, it goes: first two round losers in reverse order of regular season position (except division winners, if any, draft latest, even their record was worse than a non-division winner), conference finals losers in reverse order of regular season performance, SC loser, SC winner. The PT winner could then draft anywhere between 27th-30th and the last team to squeak into the playoffs could still draft as late as 30th.

Should work the other way, too, even if it is your own goalie ...

Agreed. The top-bottom two-tone was pretty neat, but they would have looked better with gray (silver) pants.

Also, while Corsi might be an important stat for player evaluation, it's still going to be behind Goals/Assists/Points. So, taking a lot of bad shots might not be worth it, since it will hurt the latter. As TBP said, it will probably affect marginal players the most, since the won't be scoring anyway, so they might as well pump the Corsi.

I was thinking that the second part is basically ... you can't measure a system without affecting it and, thus, tainting your measurements.

Don't know if "turned into" is the right term ... seems to imply that it was originally going a different direction. This season was a planned loss since early last season.

They need to change the wording for SAT Rel on NHL.com: Shot attempts Rel = Shot attempts for player - Shot attempts for team when player is not on the ice Unfortunately (confusingly), they have a stat, SAT For, and another stat, SAT. The former is only shots attempts by the player's team while the player is on the ice; the latter is the net shot attempts (player's team SA - opponent's SA) while the player is on the ice. SAT Rel is based on the SAT stat, not the SAT For stat. In other words, "Shot attempts for player" is actually the SAT stat (net shots attempted) while player is on the ice, not the SAT For stat for the player, and likewise for the team. The funny thing is that the Sabres' players dominate this stat, since it subtracts off one really big negative number from a smaller negative number. For example, Deslauriers has a STAT of -309, but leads the league with a STAT Rel of +712. In other words, while there have been 309 more shot attempts against than shot attempts for while he was on the ice, there were actually 1,021 more shots against than shots for while he wasn't on the ice. Seems pretty useless to not scale each by TOI or something like that.

Sounds like a joint venture between nhl.com and hockeyfights.com. Some combination of size (height, weight), hits, roughing minors, fighting majors, strength of opponents, average fight-card rating, etc. Then, of course, you have to figure out what correlates to winning: a team's top rated NQ players, the average (over the roster or by TOI) NQ rating, the interaction of NQ and Corsi/Fenwick relative (a.k.a., the Gordie Howe Effect), ... ETA: 7,777th post!

Straight up for Auston Matthews? (Side note: wouldn't the joke name for Las Vegas be Lost Wages?) Yeah, but one big takeaway that might be important is how well he played right before his contract expired versus right after he signed the new one. You want to judge him on how he plays there, but that limits your observations to a time period in which he is playing for a contract. Basically, what you see may not be what you get.

I don't have the actual studies to point you to, but the short answers are: (1) yes, including more than just shots that reach the goal and/or goalie has been shown to be a better indicator, and (2) faceoffs have been shown to have little effect on possession (it's very short lived, as good puck possession teams get it back quickly when they lose one, bad puck possession teams give it up quickly when they win one.)

To keep more teams in the playoff race longer. It makes it so that it doesn't cost anything to win a minute or two later (OT vs. end of regulation), but it does cost something to lose a minute or two earlier. So, teams will lock a game down late if it's tied to ensure that they get at least a point. Edmonton was on their heals for the whole third period just playing defense to try and get at least one point.

These Oilers shootouts are so nerve racking. They had 9 different players shooting with the game on their stick before one finally scored. It was just like the one against the Sharks (except the one round in that game where both teams scored.) Two big points, though.

But Kane + Bogosian will almost surely get you more scoring and hitting over the next few years (and beyond, depending on re-signings) than Myers + Armia. The wild card would be Lemieux, but he's far from a guarantee to be anything significant (see Kassian, Zack.)

Oddly enough, the gray bits don't bother me very much. They would, however, look more out of place with royal blue. I like the dark blue much better in person than on TV. They really do look almost black at times. I wouldn't mind something between dark navy and bright royal.

Not as the primary, but twice as alternate jerseys: From the mouth of one of the big three during the Golisano era (TG, LQ, DD), it was for merchandise sales purposes (at least, that was one of the biggest reasons.) Navy sells better than royal. Apparently, the slug was a big fashion seller outside of Buffalo (and even outside of hockey markets, all together.)

I hadn't, but I actually just realized that the 65-point line doesn't belong there, anyway. That should unclutter things a bit.

Sabres now need to win out in order to reach the 93-point pace axis.