carpandean

Do you think this is the "can you believe that I'm calling you about this guy" player that GMTM was talking about?

Hopefully, just the start.

Well, maybe not literally two seconds, but perhaps figuratively (like "a cup of coffee") ... ;)

Maybe Boston will trade Connolly to Buffalo for Stewart.

Is it me or does this trade deadline eve (heck, the whole weekend) seem particularly active?

Your answer lies above. :P

I doubt that it's at any cost, but I would bet that it is a factor.

I think it's 12-7, but their %'s are basically the same.

Interesting ... Arizona has gotten 38.0% of points against the EC and 36.8% against the WC. Sabres have gotten 36.6% against the EC and 29.5% against the WC. Sabres have 13 games against the EC and 6 against the WC (including Coyotes twice.)

Of course, that means that being in the EC actually makes our record that much worse (i.e., the Sabres have benefited from playing in the weaker conference.)

By the way, Sabres went 2-15-2 over their final 19 last year. Do that again and we'd only need Arizona to pick up 2 points and Edmonton to pick up 3 points to finish last again. Edit: Oilers might need 4 if both our wins are ROWs.

No, we could easily finish above Edmonton and Arizona, and then there is a better than 50-50 chance (1-0.2-0.135-0.115 = 0.55) that we pick 4th .

May very well come down to the two head-to-head games. If we win both in regulation, then all-else-equal (i.e., the other 17 games), our lead would be down to the ROW tie-breaker only (currently 16 vs. 12.) As I said in another thread, if Neuvirth starts either, then somebody should be fired.

Exactly my thoughts.

That only works if the team at 2 is willing to trade out. Even if it's Edmonton, I can't see them trading. They'd take Eichel and then trade one or more of their other top picks for a dman.

Last year, the chance was 75% that we drafted second, which they increased to 80% this year. So, since they are independent draws, the chance that such a team would draft second twice is: (.75)(.80) = 0.60 60% ETA: 35% chance of drafting first once and 5% chance of winning both lotteries. And, no, losing last year does not affect the odds this year, so conditional on losing it last year, the probability of losing both is 80%.

In the remaining 31GP that season, though, he had 21G, 36A for 57P, which pace-wise would be 26G, 44A, 70P in 38GP. That's very comparable to the paces of everyone other than McDavid. Admittedly, I haven't checked to see what the rest did over the remainder of their seasons.

There was a little more to it than that. Here, maybe this will help: ;)

Not sure anyone caught what I did there.

Yeah, even in the best case (finish 30th), there's an 80% chance that some other GM is saying, "With the Number One overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, the ..." The question is, whether we are guaranteed to pick 2nd if that happens (finish 30th), have a 23% chance (conditional on not picking first) of picking 2nd (finish 29th) or have no chance of picking 2nd (finish 28th or better.) As I've stated elsewhere, the chance of getting one of the top two is: 30th - 100% 29th - 33.5% 28th - 11.5% 27th - 9.5% 26th - 8.5% 25th - 7.5% ...

No it ain't.

Yeah, clearly apus hasn't heard how good Jack Eichel is. If McDavid weren't ahead of him being referred to as the next Crosby, Eichel would be the coveted prize touted as (arguably) the best prospect since Crosby. You finish last, there's 100% chance that you get a projected generational player. The problem is if you finish 29th, then it's 13.5% chance of McDavid and 20% chance of Eichel (basically, 1 in 3 chance of a potentially generational player), with the other 2/3 dropping you to a very good, probably top-pairing, some chance of franchise, defenseman in Noah Hanifin. Finish 28th (hopefully, the worst case scenario at this point), it's 11.5% McDavid, 0% Eichel, 33.5% Hanifin and 55% your choice of one of three very good (but likely not elite) forward prospect (Marner, Strome, Crouse) or a similarly-billed defense prospect (Provorov).

Not sure what I'd do for the remaining 20 games, as a whole, but I would be very clear that if I see Neuvirth in net at the start of one of the games against the Coyotes, EVERYONE IS FIRED!!!!!!!!!

Basically, it seems like ... McDavid would have been the consensus #1 pick in any draft since 2005. Eichel would likely have been the #1 in each, consensus in many, but up for debate in a couple (e.g., 2008). Hannafin might not have been the #1 pick even last year.

Fixed. :sick: