Straight Talk: 1st Line: what do Sabres really have on this roster?

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

It's a funny thing but there are always lots of good stats on Sabres teams but there we are, last place with the lowest win percentage in the east. 

It takes more than some improvement on defense to change the team.  Why are we still are the bottom? 
1. Terrible goaltending.  Below average save % overall and 5 in 5 illustrates that despite the improved defense, the goalies are allowing to many goals.  

2.  The offense is down year over year.  Last season we scored 3.28 goals per game, now we are at 2.96.  Injuries are a factor, but our shooting % has fallen from nearly 12% down to just over 10%.  

Our differential last season was -20 for the season.  We are already at -10 for 25 games.   With the goaltending worse and scoring down, this is a worse team than last year despite an incremental improvement on defense.  1 step forward two steps back.  

 

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Adams doesn't add to the top 6, he just switches it up. Cozens out for Norris. Peterka out for Doan. Even if these players are upgrades (no Norris jokes please) how much can 1 guy really do when we aren't talking about McDavid or MacKinnon? The one trade Kevyn Adams cannot and has not completed is trading X, Y, Z for an established top 6 player. Closest we have is Savoie for McLeod.

Shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic?

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It takes more than some improvement on defense to change the team.  Why are we still are the bottom? 
1. Terrible goaltending.  Below average save % overall and 5 in 5 illustrates that despite the improved defense, the goalies are allowing to many goals.  

2.  The offense is down year over year.  Last season we scored 3.28 goals per game, now we are at 2.96.  Injuries are a factor, but our shooting % has fallen from nearly 12% down to just over 10%.  

Our differential last season was -20 for the season.  We are already at -10 for 25 games.   With the goaltending worse and scoring down, this is a worse team than last year despite an incremental improvement on defense.  1 step forward two steps back.  

 

Shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic?

Stats will never give you the answer. 

The difference between winning and losing always comes down to effort at key moment, discipline, good coaching decisions (and a good system), leadership to rise to the occasion, attention to detail so you don't make mistakes, and just the will to give it your all and get it done. None of that will show up in stats on zone time or shooting percentage or goals for or whatever. Those are just interesting overall assessments. What really matters is effort, and effort at key moments. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Stats will never give you the answer. 

The difference between winning and losing always comes down to effort at key moment, discipline, good coaching decisions (and a good system), leadership to rise to the occasion, attention to detail so you don't make mistakes, and just the will to give it your all and get it done. None of that will show up in stats on zone time or shooting percentage or goals for or whatever. Those are just interesting overall assessments. What really matters is effort, and effort at key moments. 

I think the stats are telling the story pretty well.  This team remains at the bottom of the standings because they don’t score enough and give up to many bad goals.  There are many factors that play into those stats such as coaching and roster construction, but in the end these stats are a reflection of our 3 mediocre goalies and the forwards lack of playmaking skills to create offense.   

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think the stats are telling the story pretty well.  This team remains at the bottom of the standings because they don’t score enough and give up to many bad goals.  There are many factors that play into those stats such as coaching and roster construction, but in the end these stats are a reflection of our 3 mediocre goalies and the forwards lack of playmaking skills to create offense.   

Everything is interconnected though right? We scored a lot of goals one year there for Granato. Weren't we like 3rd or something? Anyway, they were a bad team. They can score in bunches but generally when they have done that it's wide open hockey with bad D. You have them playing D first the goal scoring goes down. That's pretty normal aside from the very very elite who can do both (and then win the cup). 

Would you not agree that for the first time in a long time the roster has the shape of a typical successful team? It is more balanced than it has been with more clearly defined roles. Far from perfect yet and I still think too many puck movers on D and not enough defenders but it's looking more and more like a real hockey team.

The thing that bugs me though is Adams is just content to let this evolve and take as long as it takes. The wealth of young forwards and extra bodies has me thinking armchair GM you can make a 2 for 1 move(s) to make this team even better and make it a real run for the playoffs. If he sits pat I see the real likelihood of another wasted opportunity. 

[LGR4GM]

22 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Stats will never give you the answer. 

The difference between winning and losing always comes down to effort at key moment, discipline, good coaching decisions (and a good system), leadership to rise to the occasion, attention to detail so you don't make mistakes, and just the will to give it your all and get it done. None of that will show up in stats on zone time or shooting percentage or goals for or whatever. Those are just interesting overall assessments. What really matters is effort, and effort at key moments. 

I mean, you didn't even list like 90% of the stats or what they do. There's a fundamental misunderstanding and a deliberate downplaying of what stats are for, by you. 

[JohnC]

On 11/29/2025 at 9:21 PM, Spoonman said:

So, what has KA put together for his NHL roster? 
 

Who would you keep & on what line (if we were a legitimate NHL club)?

I’ll start w 1st liners on this team: 

Forward:

1/ Tage

1/ Norris (if he ever gets & stays healthy?)

Defence:

1/ Dahls

Goal: 

1/ none

Thoughts? 

 

Samuelsson is play at a first pairing level. I would rather have Tage and Norris playing as centers. I don't care which is first or second line center. 

I consider Tuch more of a second line forward but acceptable playing on the first line. Benson is capable of playing as a first line forward. He will get better.

[Ctaeth]

22 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Stats will never give you the answer. 

Wild assertion.  Stats are literally numbers representing how the players performed on the ice 🤦

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Ctaeth said:

Wild assertion.  Stats are literally numbers representing how the players performed on the ice 🤦

Sometimes the eye test is more informative than the analytics. And sometimes who you are playing with influences the analytics ascribed to you. Stats can be useful and also not reflective of actual performance.

 

[LGR4GM]

31 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Sometimes the eye test is more informative than the analytics. And sometimes who you are playing with influences the analytics ascribed to you. Stats can be useful and also not reflective of actual performance.

 

Yea and sometimes the eye test is total ***** as ppl ascribe things to a player that aren't actually that player. Happens way more than analytics being wrong especially when analytics literally can account for not only linemates but opposition. 

Stats are literally a reflection of actual performance. You're confusing stats with prediction. Stats tell us what happened, not if it will continue. 

[LGR4GM]

Part of the issue here is the assumption you must say a number and that's that. It isn't and never will or should be. It's why almost everyone on this board who uses numbers adds context. The inverse is not true at all. Lots of ppl make claims that aren't backed up by the numbers. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I mean, you didn't even list like 90% of the stats or what they do. There's a fundamental misunderstanding and a deliberate downplaying of what stats are for, by you. 

We aren't ever going to agree on stats world and watching hockey in real life world so why do you even want to go there? Just accept me as an old former hockey player who is trapped in old school ideas and I will accept you as a video game raised younger person who has never played the game and thus doesn't fully understand it and we will each go on our way not agreeing with anything the other says. It's much simpler. 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

Sometimes the eye test is more informative than the analytics. And sometimes who you are playing with influences the analytics ascribed to you. Stats can be useful and also not reflective of actual performance.

 

Agreed. Stats can show you some things you might miss following the puck and you don't always account for every player (especially as the camera follows the puck) but if you know the game the eye test will always tell you most everything you need to know and certainly everything important. Stats are a tool but they are just stats. 

[LGR4GM]

11 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

We aren't ever going to agree on stats world and watching hockey in real life world so why do you even want to go there? Just accept me as an old former hockey player who is trapped in old school ideas and I will accept you as a video game raised younger person who has never played the game and thus doesn't fully understand it and we will each go on our way not agreeing with anything the other says. It's much simpler. 

Because you keep taking shots at stats and you're flat out wrong. I know it's hard for boomers but we're not required to just let you spout whatever and then not counter it with facts. 

Stats literally tell you about things happening on the ice. That's what they do, you wanna argue that they are interpreted incorrectly go for it. 

You don't understand the stats, what they tell us, or even all the ones that exist. I'm not required to also ignore them because of your knowledge gap or to not defend them for the same. 

11 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Agreed. Stats can show you some things you might miss following the puck and you don't always account for every player (especially as the camera follows the puck) but if you know the game the eye test will always tell you most everything you need to know and certainly everything important. Stats are a tool but they are just stats. 

There is so much evidence the eye test doesn't tell you everything. Let alone before we introduce bias into the eye test. Eye test is tool, subject to the whims of the watcher.

[PerreaultForever]

15 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Because you keep taking shots at stats and you're flat out wrong. I know it's hard for boomers but we're not required to just let you spout whatever and then not counter it with facts. 

Stats literally tell you about things happening on the ice. That's what they do, you wanna argue that they are interpreted incorrectly go for it. 

You don't understand the stats, what they tell us, or even all the ones that exist. I'm not required to also ignore them because of your knowledge gap or to not defend them for the same. 

There is so much evidence the eye test doesn't tell you everything. Let alone before we introduce bias into the eye test. Eye test is tool, subject to the whims of the watcher.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying YOU need to ignore stats. You do you. I'm just saying stop trying to convert me to your world view. We will never agree and you can throw boomer around as a faux insult or whatever else makes you happy but it's pointless. We see the game differently and always will. You do you, but also let me be me. 

[JP51]

Straight talk... this is what I see... 

- Moderate talent level overall on this team...  1 Generational Player in Dahlin, 1 top line forward in Thompson, 2 Marginal Top line forward in Tuch and Norris who has injury issues. 

- Leadership who is it, who is the one that demands and holds people accountable... Veteran leadership is below average... talent mixed with toughness is about non existent... Doan may be the only one who I would consider a top 6 talent with the commensurate toughness... Tuch maybe a little...  Dahlin is forced to be superman and be all of this... leaving me concerned for him. 

- A few up and comers, Doan in particular... Loved him before I even saw him play for us... after that... I struggle to see the next up and comer that will take us to a new level... Benson... maybe... hurt... 0 goals in 14 games... small but cant beat his attitude. Kulik, Rosen, Ostland etc.. fair pretty well... but I am not seeing them as players that are ready to lead a charge if ever... 

- Defense lb for lb the softest most uninspired lazy defense I have ever seen...  Like I have no idea what do even do here... 

- Goaltending we are desperately trying to love us some somebody in net... we vacillate between Lyon and Ellis but really don't feel like we have seen enough to commit to a long term relationship... we all do agree that Ukka Peka Loseannin isnt girlfriend/boyfriend material...  like we may take him to a wedding if we had to have a date... but nothin happening here... 

3/4th line - some moderately tough players but clearly struggle to contribute offensively and are a defensive liability with some of the worst plus/minus on the team... looking at Greenway in particular who is a minus 7 after 13 games and limited minutes... 

- FO/ownership - They are worse than incompetent... like if you were incompetent and knew you were that's really bad... But if you are totally incompetent and see yourself as an affronted misunderstood genius and generally disdained those that criticized you and had literally no idea you were completely out of your league... that's a whole other level of dangerous.... 

 

Bottom line, the overall talent on this team is not great but more moderate nor does it possess the mix of talent/toughness the game requires.  The talent is mostly concentrated into one generational player who literally has to be the Josh Allen superman every game... the rest is a limited cornucopia of forwards that would likely be 2nd or 3rd line players on real teams with highly limited toughness and leadership ability...  The up and coming players with the exception of Doan are of the same soft ilk...  The defense is going to gather to take a picture to be used on a package of Charmin to illustrate what softness is...  Goaltending problems are still there and the FO is incapable of fixing anything... to the point I am not sure they even see a problem.. 

 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by JP51

[Taro T]

37 minutes ago, JP51 said:

Straight talk... this is what I see... 

- Moderate talent level overall on this team...  1 Generational Player in Dahlin, 1 top line forward in Thompson, 2 Marginal Top line forward in Tuch and Norris who has injury issues. 

- Leadership who is it, who is the one that demands and holds people accountable... Veteran leadership is below average... talent mixed with toughness is about non existent... Doan may be the only one who I would consider a top 6 talent with the commensurate toughness... Tuch maybe a little...  Dahlin is forced to be superman and be all of this... leaving me concerned for him. 

- A few up and comers, Doan in particular... Loved him before I even saw him play for us... after that... I struggle to see the next up and comer that will take us to a new level... Benson... maybe... hurt... 0 goals in 14 games... small but cant beat his attitude. Kulik, Rosen, Ostland etc.. fair pretty well... but I am not seeing them as players that are ready to lead a charge if ever... 

- Defense lb for lb the softest most uninspired lazy defense I have ever seen...  Like I have no idea what do even do here... 

- Goaltending we are desperately trying to love us some somebody in net... we vacillate between Lyon and Ellis but really don't feel like we have seen enough to commit to a long term relationship... we all do agree that Ukka Peka Loseannin isnt girlfriend/boyfriend material...  like we may take him to a wedding if we had to have a date... but nothin happening here... 

3/4th line - some moderately tough players but clearly struggle to contribute offensively and are a defensive liability with some of the worst plus/minus on the team... looking at Greenway in particular who is a minus 7 after 13 games and limited minutes... 

- FO/ownership - They are worse than incompetent... like if you were incompetent and knew you were that's really bad... But if you are totally incompetent and see yourself as an affronted misunderstood genius and generally disdained those that criticized you and had literally no idea you were completely out of your league... that's a whole other level of dangerous.... 

 

Bottom line, the overall talent on this team is not great but more moderate nor does it possess the mix of talent/toughness the game requires.  The talent is mostly concentrated into one generational player who literally has to be the Josh Allen superman every game... the rest is a limited cornucopia of forwards that would likely be 2nd or 3rd line players on real teams with highly limited toughness and leadership ability...  The up and coming players with the exception of Doan are of the same soft ilk...  The defense is going to gather to take a picture to be used on a package of Charmin to illustrate what softness is...  Goaltending problems are still there and the FO is incapable of fixing anything... to the point I am not sure they even see a problem.. 

 

 

 

This assessment is quite fair.  

The killer is, if you swap having 1 really good (like able to be in end of season awards conversations if the team had better coaching and could get into the mix of playoff teams) D-man and lots of Q's at G with having 1 really good G and lots of Q's at D; you'd be describing fairly accurately what the team was back when the current owner bought it excepting for the fact that the FO at that time had gotten the team to at least the semis on 4 occassions in about 16 years which was light years ahead of what their successors have done.

So, 13 years have been thrown away to be exactly where they were when they decided to tank for a generational player who'd be available in the draft after the 2nd year of the tank.  Kids that weren't alive when the decision to tank was made are now teenagers and there is not one single thing to show for having done so all so many years ago.

[pi2000]

Your top guys, Dahiln and Thompson, need to be at the top of this list... not the bottom.
 

==============================================================
BUF even strength goal differential through 27 games = -17
BUF even strength minutes played through 27 games = 1364.21
exp+/- is a function of %min played at ES and team ES goal diff
TRpm(team relative +/-) is the diff btwn actual+/- and exp+/-
%min is % of ES minutes played
==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP   +/-   exp+/-  %min
BUF Mattias Samuelsson        11.89    25     6   -5.89   34.6
BUF Alex Tuch                  7.74    27     3   -4.74   27.9
BUF Noah Östlund               4.76    19     2   -2.76   16.2
BUF Zach Benson                4.45    14     2   -2.45   14.4
BUF Ryan McLeod                2.65    27    -2   -4.65   27.3
BUF Jacob Bryson               1.37    17    -1   -2.37   14.0
BUF Owen Power                 0.61    26    -5   -5.61   33.0
BUF Josh Doan                  0.36    27    -4   -4.36   25.6
BUF Bowen Byram                0.17    27    -6   -6.17   36.3
BUF Tyson Kozak               -0.30    19    -3   -2.70   15.9
BUF Isak Rosen                -0.46    10    -2   -1.54    9.1
BUF Mason Geertsen            -0.74     5    -1   -0.26    1.5
BUF Jack Quinn                -1.36    27    -6   -4.64   27.3
BUF Michael Kesselring        -1.39     9    -3   -1.61    9.5
BUF Jiri Kulich               -1.80    12    -4   -2.20   12.9
BUF Beck Malenstyn            -1.93    26    -5   -3.07   18.1
BUF Rasmus Dahlin             -2.02    24    -8   -5.98   35.2
BUF Conor Timmins             -2.53    27    -8   -5.47   32.2
BUF Tage Thompson             -2.94    27    -8   -5.06   29.8
BUF Jason Zucker              -4.12    19    -7   -2.88   16.9
BUF Peyton Krebs              -4.60    27    -9   -4.40   25.9
BUF Jordan Greenway           -4.98    13    -7   -2.02   11.9
==============================================================