GDT Sabres at Penguins 11/26/25 7pm MSG WGR550

[kas23]

12 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm not saying UPL had an awful game. But we have seen a lot of games where the Sabres were 'goalied' this year. Where non-Vezina winners made incredible saves that led to a Sabres loss.  I need UPL to have some games like that. If he did, they likely would have had 1 or 2 goals tonight. He didn't play awful, but he was the 2nd best goalie on the ice tonight.

Agree. We seem to get goalied a lot. But, we never seem to do the goaliing, at least when UPL is in net. We don’t need a perfect goalie, but at least one who has the ability to steal some games here and there. This isn’T UPL. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Statistically regarding UPL. And yeah, I know defenders of him are going to say stats aren't perfect. I agree, they aren't, but they are what we have other than our 'eye test'.

Looking at his play a little differently..how many goals does he actually allow vs the 'exected goals' allowed for each game? Expected goals being statistically the quality of all shots he took translated into a league average of how many goals would/should be scored.  (again, it may not be perfect but its probably the single best stat we have)

And yes, last night might be an indication of the fact the stat isn't perfect, the expected goals allowed doesn't take into consideration blatant bad plays by the defense. But over the course of a period, a game or even a series of games, the number tends to 'even out'.

Vs Pitt:  3 goals allowed, 1.09 expected goals allowed

Vs Car:  1 goal allowed, 2.71 expected goals allowed

Vs Chi:  3 goals allowed, 1.86 expected goals allowed

Vs Col: 3 goals allowed, 2.97 expected goals allowed

Vs StL:  2 goals allowed, 0.67 expected goals allowed

Vs Wash: 3 goals allowed, 2.02 expected goals allowed

Vs Tor:  4 goals allowed, 1.58 expected goals allowed.

So with the exception of the Carolina game, he has allowed as many, more more goals compared to the quality and quanity of the shots taken against him.

Ellis has a a negative expected goals above average stat right now, just like UPL does. The difference is most of Ellis' bad number comes from one game that brought his whole season down.  UPL is just pretty consistently below average.

Really wanted Lyon to get the start last night, but knew it would be UPL between the pipes.  And UPL's defenders can point to things that his teammates did to put him in the point that he had to make saves, but that's kind of the entire point of the position.  If nobody makes a mistake, you are going to face only about 5 high danger chances per game.  But people make mistakes, it's a very quick paced sport and your opponent is taking away time and space, and the good goalies bail their teammates out more often than not.

And if the game situation is removed, UPL didn't give up any "bad" goals.  Each of the shots that beat him had a factor that made it more challanging than a normal save; but NONE of them were of the "well, Hasek could've stopped it, maybe, but mere mortals didn't have a chance" variety. 

Yes, the 1st goal was tipped, but the shot was from nearly 10' above the circle and Bryam's stick was at or outside the circle too.  If UPL's entire body isn't moving towards the far post, he very likely makes that save even though it was deflected.

Yes, his teammates didn't help him on the 2nd goal, but he's the one that overreacted to the initial shot that went wide, which led to him having to overreact when the puck bounced off the boards into his skates which led to him dropping his stick.  Once he dropped his stick, he was toast, but he didn't need to be.  Stay square and plan on closing the 5 hole with his legs rather than his blocker and that play continues.  But he continued the overreaction and tried to make the save with his blocker which delayed the closing of the 5 hole.

Yes, his teammates made a poor line change on the 3rd goal and Power didn't step up into the deflector in time to keep him from directing the puck at the net, but UPL only had to move 1/2 way across the crease to get in front of that shot.  It wasn't labelled to the far post.  If he isn't fully commited to the shot on a 3 on 1, he makes that save.  It wasn't a mini 2 on 1 that he should expect his D-man to be able to prevent the shot from the pass, but it was a mini 3 on 1; he has to be cognizant that there's a good chance he's facing a shot from his left side and can't 100% commit to the puck carrier being the shooter.

But, when the game situation is included in the evaluation, all 3 were goals that the team really needed him to figure out how to make that stop.

The good news is that UPL didn't give up any WTF Specials.  The bad news is, all 3 of those goals came while the outcome of the game was still in doubt.  The 1st came on only the 3 shot his teammates let get through to him in a scoreless game late in the 1st; the 2nd came literally 30 seconds after his teammates had tied the score; and the 3rd came as time was dwindling when already trailing by 1.  That 3rd goal made it an almost certainty that they'd have to pull the goalie at the end and they had given up 8 EN goals this year and have scored 0 6v5 goals this year.  That stat is now 9 against 0 for.

He isn't looking confident from the get go in any of these games.  He's overreacting and fighting to make the 1st stop.  He's seemed to be settling in in the 2nd period but he's still isn't looking confident when the game is getting tight.  No idea how they give him confidence in himself.  That has to come from within.  And the shame of that is they set him up to be in a spot to believe in himself and get the team to believe in him too which is that feedback loop that gets him rolling (at least until he runs out of gas 1-2 months later).

[Broken Ankles]

10 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

Now, the thing I really want to point out is WTF is Thompson doing on the second Pittsburgh goal? I see some of you bitching about UPL out of position (and he was) but go look at it again and look at Thompson. He's right in front, perfect position to get his stick in the lane and prevent or block the shot and he just floats around between players achieving nothing. Big guy like that with his reach, how does he just do nothing there? These details boggle my mind with this team cause they happen over and over again. Power of course was weak on the third goal but nothing new there. 

 

Watch the highlight again.  Tage had good positioning in front as there were two Penguins on the left of UPL down low.  There were also two Sabres much, much closer to Rust.  Benson dives and whiffs on the puck.  Byrum is next closest and offers a lame attempt at a shot block.  Offering us a glimpse of his poor defensive skills.  Tage was not great overall, but this goal was less on him than others.  

[Pimlach]

Well its Thanksgiving morning.  Reading the thread it feels more like Thanksgiving mourning.  

Blame UPL, Timmins, Power, Tage, whoever and whatever - it was a team loss.   It was another game that they looked not ready and unwilling.  They are just not a hungry team.   

The Sabre sit last in their division and last in their conference on this celebratory day.  

They are only 6 points out of the final playoff spot but the hard part is they have to pass 8 teams in the standings to get there.  The cannot seem to get a winning streak going, two games is not a winning streak.  

They need to start winning at a pace of 2 out of 3 games over the next month to crawl up the standings.  Otherwise things will look very bleak by Christmas.  

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Pimlach

[mjd1001]

51 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Well its Thanksgiving morning.  Reading the thread it feels more like Thanksgiving mourning.  

Blame UPL, Timmins, Power, Tage, whoever and whatever - it was a team loss.   It was another game that they looked not ready and unwilling.  They are just not a hungry team.   

The Sabre sit last in their division and last in their conference on this celebratory day.  

They are only 6 points out of the final playoff spot but the hard part is they have to pass 8 teams in the standings to get there.  The cannot seem to get a winning streak going, two games is not a winning streak.  

They need to start winning at a pace of 2 out of 3 games over the next month to crawl up the standings.  Otherwise things will look very bleak by Christmas.  

 

They have 13 games between now and Christmas, 16 between now and the end of the year. Lets just use the end of December (16 more games) for easy math.  By then they will have played 39 games.  78 possible points.  The last playoff spot is usually around 58% of the points, and right now it is tracking almost exactly that way.

So by the end of December, they want to be on pace for 45 points.

They currently have 22.

Can they get 23 points in the next 16 games?  That would put them right on track to where they need for the math.

Even 19 or 20 points will not get them to .580, but will have them gaining ground.

If they finish the calendar year with 41 points they are 'still in it'. Finish with 45 points and they are right on track.

The target record should be something like 9-5-2 between now and the end of the year. Not sure this team can do that though.  Maybe if/when Norris comes back and he plays well.....

 

 

Edited 27 minutes ago by mjd1001

[Pimlach]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

They have 13 games between now and Christmas, 16 between now and the end of the year. Lets just use the end of December (16 more games) for easy math.  By then they will have played 39 games.  78 possible points.  The last playoff spot is usually around 58% of the points, and right now it is tracking almost exactly that way.

So by the end of December, they want to be on pace for 45 points.

They currently have 22.

Can they get 23 points in the next 16 games?  That would put them right on track to where they need for the math.

Even 19 or 20 points will not get them to .580, but will have them gaining ground.

If they finish the calendar year with 41 points they are 'still in it'. Finish with 45 points and they are right on track.

 

 

You are essentially saying what I said.  They need to starting winning at a 2 of 3 pace.  

[PASabreFan]

58 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Well its Thanksgiving morning.  Reading the thread it feels more like Thanksgiving mourning.  

Blame UPL, Timmins, Power, Tage, whoever and whatever - it was a team loss.   It was another game that they looked not ready and unwilling.  They are just not a hungry team.   

The Sabre sit last in their division and last in their conference on this celebratory day.  

They are only 6 points out of the final playoff spot but the hard part is they have to pass 8 teams in the standings to get there.  The cannot seem to get a winning streak going, two games is not a winning streak.  

They need to start winning at a pace of 2 out of 3 games over the next month to crawl up the standings.  Otherwise things will look very bleak by Christmas.  

 

Only five points back.

Aaaaaaand just nine points out of first in the conference. They can cut that deficit with the Devs to seven tomorrow. And they will. NJ will be traveling day of game?

[Pimlach]

3 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Only five points back.

Aaaaaaand just nine points out of first in the conference. They can cut that deficit with the Devs to seven tomorrow. And they will. NJ will be traveling day of game?

5 points to tie for 8th spot.  They need 6 to gain the 8th spot.  

But, its good to see you in a hopeful and positive mood on Thanksgiving.