Sabres have elected arbitration with Byram

[Taro T]

Just now, jad1 said:

So Adams said that the Sabres would match any offer for Byram, which could easily be $8 or 9M, and had the cap space to back up that claim, but now is trying lowball Byram in negotiations?

Big time offer sheets are usually capped at 5 years because the offering team, by rule can only spread the AAV over a max of five years.

So if a team offers Byram a 7 year deal at $7m, the cap number is close to 10M instead of 7, because they can only spread the total over 5 years.

So any long term offer to Byram would probably be a max of 5 years.

No.  You are missing the point.  There's no reason for the offer sheeting team to go to 5 years.  Go 1 or 2 with a UFA-esque deal forcing the current club to match it and get their cap stretched while losing the guy for nothing in 2 years.

So, if the current team doesn't match, you can get the player for 2 years with a tacit contract offer for a LT deal already in mind that can be signed in 1 year.  Yeah, you lose your draft picks, but who cares.  You wanted the player.

And if the current team does match; well you can get the player IN 2 years with a tacit contract offer for a LT deal already in mind that can be signed as soon as he hits FA.  Then you don't lose your draft picks; but you don't get his services for those 2 years.  But you're in a great position to get him when he's in his prime and you still won't be buying a ton of 30+ years like you'd be doing if you got the guy after the current club matched a 5 year deal.

This way, you put the most stress on the current club.  Pretty sure Adams would've loved to have seen a 5 year deal.  He'd've known how much cap space he'd have and he'd also know if he really was matching any offer.  (Expect he'd not have matched any offers above $9MM; but now we'll never know for sure.  Unless of course Byram gets a $9MM+ award and then Adams accepts it or doesn't.)

[mjd1001]

Just now, Taro T said:

No.  You are missing the point.  There's no reason for the offer sheeting team to go to 5 years.  Go 1 or 2 with a UFA-esque deal forcing the current club to match it and get their cap stretched while losing the guy for nothing in 2 years.

Agree.

If I'm going after Byrum with an offer sheet, I'm going 2 years.  That would put the Sabres in a position of likely losing him in those 2 years.....while if he is singing your offer sheet, he probably wants to be with your team so you are less likely to lose him.

[jad1]

31 minutes ago, Taro T said:

No.  You are missing the point.  There's no reason for the offer sheeting team to go to 5 years.  Go 1 or 2 with a UFA-esque deal forcing the current club to match it and get their cap stretched while losing the guy for nothing in 2 years.

So, if the current team doesn't match, you can get the player for 2 years with a tacit contract offer for a LT deal already in mind that can be signed in 1 year.  Yeah, you lose your draft picks, but who cares.  You wanted the player.

And if the current team does match; well you can get the player IN 2 years with a tacit contract offer for a LT deal already in mind that can be signed as soon as he hits FA.  Then you don't lose your draft picks; but you don't get his services for those 2 years.  But you're in a great position to get him when he's in his prime and you still won't be buying a ton of 30+ years like you'd be doing if you got the guy after the current club matched a 5 year deal.

This way, you put the most stress on the current club.  Pretty sure Adams would've loved to have seen a 5 year deal.  He'd've known how much cap space he'd have and he'd also know if he really was matching any offer.  (Expect he'd not have matched any offers above $9MM; but now we'll never know for sure.  Unless of course Byram gets a $9MM+ award and then Adams accepts it or doesn't.)

The reasons I'm using 5 years is because you made the point that Bryam is willing to sign a long term deal with the Sabres (my point is that he's not willing).

Adams said that he's willing to match any offer sheet in term in length or AAV, so I took that they are willing to match the deal even if it comes in at 5 years.

So if Byram is willing to sign a long term deal, and Adams is willing to match an offer that COULD be 5 years, that indicates that both sided should be willing to discuss a LT deal starting at 5 years.

Since there is no deal yet, my read is that one of the sides is balking, and I think that's Byram's side.  He doesn't want to be here long term.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Byram is signing anything, offer sheet or long term offer, more than 2 years.

Edited 2 hours ago by jad1

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, jad1 said:

The reasons I'm using 5 years is because you made the point that Bryam is willing to sign a long term deal with the Sabres (my point is that he's not willing).

Adams said that he's willing to match any offer sheet in term in length or AAV, so I took that they are willing to match the deal even if it comes in at 5 years.

So if Byram is willing to sign a long term deal, and Adams is willing to match an offer that COULD be 5 years, that indicates that both sided should be willing to discuss a LT deal starting at 5 years.

Since there is no deal yet, my read is that one of the sides is balking, and I think that's Byram's side.  He doesn't want to be here long term.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Byram is signing anything, offer sheet or long term offer, more than 2 years.

See, that's one other item we don't agree on.  You believe that Byram doesn't want a LT deal and that is why there is no deal yet.  IMHO, the 2 sides don't agree on what he is worth and THAT is why there is no deal in place.  Byram wants $9MM (that # keeps popping up in "insider" articles about the negotiation; so expect it is the # that Byram and his agent want); the Sabres don't believe he's worth that much.  AND would go farther to say that NO team thinks he's worth that much.  Why?  Because none made him an offer of that.  Now, yes, there are some teams that don't have the draft capital to make that offer; but there are several (at least 4 if not 6 or 8) teams that have kicked the tires on Byram.  Some of those have had it, and even those that don't could have made the Sabres a roughly equivalent offer to the draft pick compensation.

Really, truly believe it is a simple matter of Byram believes strongly in himself and sees himself worth at least $9MM.  So far, nobody other than his agent has agreed with him.  And that disconnect on what he's worth is a far bigger reason for him not having been signed yet than his wanting out of Buffalo soon.  It's not that they haven't had the discussions; it's that they don't agree on what fair value is.  And considering what the Sabres have given Power and the since traded Cozens, can see why Byram believes he's worth $9MM.  Don't agree with him; but see why he thinks this team should give him that.

[jad1]

45 minutes ago, Taro T said:

See, that's one other item we don't agree on.  You believe that Byram doesn't want a LT deal and that is why there is no deal yet.  IMHO, the 2 sides don't agree on what he is worth and THAT is why there is no deal in place.  Byram wants $9MM (that # keeps popping up in "insider" articles about the negotiation; so expect it is the # that Byram and his agent want); the Sabres don't believe he's worth that much.  AND would go farther to say that NO team thinks he's worth that much.  Why?  Because none made him an offer of that.  Now, yes, there are some teams that don't have the draft capital to make that offer; but there are several (at least 4 if not 6 or 8) teams that have kicked the tires on Byram.  Some of those have had it, and even those that don't could have made the Sabres a roughly equivalent offer to the draft pick compensation.

Really, truly believe it is a simple matter of Byram believes strongly in himself and sees himself worth at least $9MM.  So far, nobody other than his agent has agreed with him.  And that disconnect on what he's worth is a far bigger reason for him not having been signed yet than his wanting out of Buffalo soon.  It's not that they haven't had the discussions; it's that they don't agree on what fair value is.  And considering what the Sabres have given Power and the since traded Cozens, can see why Byram believes he's worth $9MM.  Don't agree with him; but see why he thinks this team should give him that.

So when Adams said that they would match ANY offer, that really meant any number less than 6 or 7 or 8M?  The unconditional statement has conditions?

The problem is that Adams doesn't know what Byram is.

He wants to play Bryam as a top pair D, or he wants him valued as a top pair D in a trade. But he doesn't want to pay him as one.

He wants to pay him like a 4 D, less than 7M, but the trade value for a 7M player is what Adams got back for Peterka. A 5/4 defenseman and a 4/3 forward.  And he wants more.

Dahlin is the 1D.  He makes 11M.  Power is the 3D.  He makes 8M.  If Byram is the 2D, he should slot between those guys.

So the question to Adams is, is Bryam a 2D?  I don't think he can answer that.

 

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, jad1 said:

So when Adams said that they would match ANY offer, that really meant any number less than 6 or 7 or 8M?  The unconditional statement has conditions?

The problem is that Adams doesn't know what Byram is.

He wants to play Bryam as a top pair D, or he wants him valued as a top pair D in a trade. But he doesn't want to pay him as one.

He wants to pay him like a 4 D, less than 7M, but the trade value for a 7M player is what Adams got back for Peterka. A 5/4 defenseman and a 4/3 forward.  And he wants more.

Dahlin is the 1D.  He makes 11M.  Power is the 3D.  He makes 8M.  If Byram is the 2D, he should slot between those guys.

So the question to Adams is, is Bryam a 2D?  I don't think he can answer that.

 

The bolded is accurate.  IMHO.  And if the Sabres had an actual NHL caliber coach running the D door, expect that he'd be able to answer that because that guy would know what he is working with every day and would let the HC and the GM know his thoughts about it.

As for would there have been a caveat or conditions in Adams statement that they planned to match any offer?  We'll never know.  He didn't make the statement in the way Quinn did nearly 20 years ago which Lowe felt he could put in a crazy offer (at the time, nowadays it'd almost be pedestrian) that politician Larry let himself get backed into matching.  Expect (hope?) that Adams claim that he'd match any offer included either the adjective reasonable or realistic in that statement.  And if he did or didn't, again, we won't know because Byram didn't sign an offer sheet.

But, do expect that had Byram gotten an offer sheet it would've been for less than $9MM and Adams would've matched the offer.  But that is as much speculation as you or others believing otherwise.

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

Just maybe KA is counting on that scenario to happen. 

Sure. Play great, get traded for value. Win win.

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Paying 3 Dmen 8mil + is completely bonkers, especially when only one of them plays D well 

If no top 6 forwards are signing here, I don't care if Byram gets paid for a year or two. They have the cap. Spend it 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

That could happen. But look at the last few trades that included picks. Montreal had to give up two mid round fists and Emil Heineman to get a signed Noah Dobson.

Exactly. Which tells you that Byram could have fetched a decent haul if they'd gone that same route. 

I mean consider it. Even if Byram is less and you only get the 2 firsts, you sign Orlov in free agency and then use those picks for Rust or maybe even Robertson. 

Face it, Adams is a lousy GM and he is killing this team because Dahlin will ask out after this year. I am almost certain of it. 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

Theoretically, you are correct that some deals have multiple components with multiple teams to get a deal done, usually a big deal. That's not how KA operates. And another real problem that the Sabres have in fashioning a major deal like you describe is that too many good players have NTC in their contracts that make it even more challenging to make a deal. 

KA is a meat and potato GM who plays a simple game.  The bottom line is that pigmies don't play in the NB and checker players don't play in major chess tournaments. Unlikely to happen, especially as the offseason winds down. 

Exactly, and that's the problem. KA is just a s**t GM. Simple as that. 

I'm a chess player .

[JohnC]

20 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Sure. Play great, get traded for value. Win win.

I have said this in a numerous postings that I feel KA is playing this Byram situation adroitly. 

[Stads]

3 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I have said this in a numerous postings that I feel KA is playing this Byram situation adroitly. 

Making me feel dumb having to look that word up

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Exactly, and that's the problem. KA is just a s**t GM. Simple as that. 

I'm a chess player .

Sometimes as a Sabre fan you feel boxed in. You go with what you got. No other choice. 

In a way, I don't want KA to get too exotic when making moves because he would be acting beyond his capacity. Sticking with the basics is the right course of action for him. No fancy French or Italian food on his plate. Simple meat and potatoes with a domestic beer. 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Stads said:

Making me feel dumb having to look that word up

I have never been told that I acted adroitly. However, I have been told many times that I acted impetuously. Too much Italian in me. 😁

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, Stads said:

Making me feel dumb having to look that word up

In fairness, you don't often hear Adams described that way.  (Usually) context helps tremendously.  In this instance, not so much.