Chad D: expect a Byram trade at or around the draft

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It absolutely would be if I felt we needed Peterka less than the two players we received but I don’t believe that to be the case. 

As I said, to you yesterday,  I HATE the trade and it’s not because I can’t foresee a situation where the players we got actually serve the team better: it’s possible 

it’s the principle. I KNOW money was a factor. I KNOW we didn’t fully prioritize winning, now. I refuse to back down from that: I believe fully in my heart of hearts that the team, while not owing us a winner, owes us their best effort to win.

after 15 years, I mean if no one will stand by me on that, I’m convicted and obsessive enough to do it myself 

but the line must be drawn here

THIS far

No further 

I see what you did there

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I can't agree or disagree with this, but would you agree that Kesselring plays a POSITION more important than Peterka's?

Like, is D more important than Winger? Tough to answer that without context. 
 

a stud goalie is most valuable

a 1C is arguably the most important forward position but the game IS changing. For some teams, their best player is a winger. Wingers facilitate the whole offence now if necesssry, most teams utilize free wheeling systems in the o zone. Forwards also drive play in today’s game more than d overall, I believe, analytically 

it really comes down to who you slot in the role. I don’t think “D” is more valuable than “W”, or 4D more valuable than 1LW, in any sort of on-the-surface way that would sway  whatever given hypothetical comparable much beyond the determination you’d be arriving at by simply comparing and contrasting the two real world players in the no longer hypothetical comp 

[dudacek]

Regardless of our personal feelings on the value and utility of Rust as an asset I think we also need to consider some things about Rust as a player:

He is veteran Stanley Cup winner and a veteran leader and a dog on the ice, capable of giving you more value than his $5M contract. 

And he is probably at this moment a better (not more skilled, better) player than the man we just traded, a man whose departure just left a Rust-sized hole in the lineup.

Such things seem to be important to our management right now.

[thewookie1]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Regardless of our personal feelings on the value and utility of Rust as an asset I think we also need to consider some things about Rust as a player:

He is veteran Stanley Cup winner and a veteran leader and a dog on the ice, capable of giving you more value than his $5M contract. 

And he is probably at this moment a better (not more skilled, better) player than the man we just traded, a man whose departure just left a Rust-sized hole in the lineup.

Such things seem to be important to our management right now.

I just don't Rust to block us from keeping Tuch or actually getting better. Plus I sure as hell wouldn't trade them Helenius 

[CTJoe]

Just now, thewookie1 said:

I just don't Rust to block us from keeping Tuch or actually getting better. Plus I sure as hell wouldn't trade them Helenius 

$5m cap hit won't hinder a Tuch signing.  Theoretically we just saved $5.5m in cap by trading Peterka (compared to the two guys we got back).

[Drag0nDan]

2 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Byram has played behind Dahlin, Power (1st overall already signed [foolishly] to a who is going to be gifted every opportunity), and some guy named Makar. If he goes to St. Louis he immediately jumps to the top of their offensive defencemen list. Fowler? Nothing to write home about. Broberg? Some solid offensive potential, less than Byram. Leddy? He's pretty cooked and a UFA at the end of the season.

Before a trade is approved, St Louis would have an extension for Byram in place, so the duration of Kyrou's contract is immaterial.

Kyrou's numbers are JJP's numbers with an NHL-level coached powerplay (a bit above league average, but 16th overall in the standings). Every non-tanking team in the league has a 70-point pacing winger. Kyrou is a good piece to have, not a player you build around. And Byram could be the same, but that doesn't mean you have to give away Byram + + to get a guy that every team has.

36 goals was good for 16th in the NHL and several players ahead of him are centers.  49 players scored 70 points last season and again you have centers and defensemen to contend with.  Him not being a center hurts his value a bit, but byram needing a payday does lower his value considerably.  

[dudacek]

Just now, CTJoe said:

$5m cap hit won't hinder a Tuch signing.  Theoretically we just saved $5.5m in cap by trading Peterka (compared to the two guys we got back).

Yeah, the way the math fits is another thing that gives this one wings.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

36 goals was good for 16th in the NHL and several players ahead of him are centers.  49 players scored 70 points last season and again you have centers and defensemen to contend with.  Him not being a center hurts his value a bit, but byram needing a payday does lower his value considerably.  

Nm thought you meant Rust.

Edited 4 hours ago by LGR4GM

[CTJoe]

Just now, dudacek said:

Yeah, the way the math fits is another thing that gives this one wings.

Yep - but then you have to consider cap space doesn't matter as much to the Sabres as they're always $10m under

[Thorny]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Forton was pretty clear that they thought there was a huge equal cluster after their top 7.

The trade down is superfluous to the Sabres.

@Thorny’s right in the sense of do you want a good NHLer as he declines for the next 3 years, or a good prospect as he improves 3 years from now?

And we get three swipes with our first round pick in the meantime to replace the prospect 

And the league gives those to us for free! 

Are people talking about this? 

[Drag0nDan]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

He's not going to score 36 ever again. 

Even with his 1st two years included he's scored at a 30 goal pace his entire career.  He only had 7 PPG's last year.  And his shooting percentage of 15.1 was above career average but was a few points lower than Tuch.

Plus the "ever again" doesn't factor in lucking into being on mackinnon or mcdavids line or something.  I don't even need data to say he'd probably score 50 or something.  

[dudacek]

Honestly, the more I think about the Rust thing, the more I look at as being exactly like the Peterka deal.

If you told me I could trade Peterka and a first for a heart-and-soul veteran 30-goal winger with a Stanley Cup ring, a rugged young forechecker with middle 6 potential, and a giant shutdown top 4 right D, I’d say “hell ya, that’s exactly what this team needs.”

It’s the fact that those pieces are Helenius, Rust, Doan and Kesselring that I find myself tripping over.

[Scottysabres]

I believe Adams will make a move at the draft. Will it actually happen? Who knows, but Adams will make a move.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

Even with his 1st two years included he's scored at a 30 goal pace his entire career.  He only had 7 PPG's last year.  And his shooting percentage of 15.1 was above career average but was a few points lower than Tuch.

Plus the "ever again" doesn't factor in lucking into being on mackinnon or mcdavids line or something.  I don't even need data to say he'd probably score 50 or something.  

Are you talking about Tuch or Rust? 

I hate, absolutely hate when ppl just post things with He as the subject. He who?

[stenbaro]

32 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The only cap on goals against is 0. 

Florida allowed 223g, Sabres allowed 287g. 

Florida scored 246g and Buffalo 265g.

We're arguing over the wrong thing. It's goal differential. Buffalo was 23 and Florida 11th. All the teams above Florida are playoff teams too. So we can either score a lot more or reduce our goals against a bunch. But our goal differential has to come down from -22

I went back and checked out the goals per game because it seemed to me that a lot our goals came in blow out wins. Here is what I found:

8 Goals 2 times both wins

7 Goals 3 Times 3 wins

6 Goals 3 Times all wins

5 Goals 11 times 6 wins 5 Losses

19 Games 5 goals and over 14 wins 5 losses

4 Goals 15 Games 9 wins 6 losses

3 Goals 10 wins 6 losses

2 goals 19 games 2 wins 17 losses

1 Goal 9 games 1 win 8 losses

0 goals 4 games 4 losses

Seems we score our goals in bunches in less games. I believe our offensive output is not consistent enough, we lose way too many low goal games. 

We rely on 1 maybe 2 lines to do the majority of our scoring. Our bottom 2 lines need to be more offensively productive and our top 2 lines need to be more 2 way responsible.  If bringing in Rust helps then do it. I couldn't stand Evan Rodrigues when he was here. Now I admit I was horribly wrong. He is the type of player we need along with some toughness in both ends. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, stenbaro said:

I went back and checked out the goals per game because it seemed to me that a lot our goals came in blow out wins. Here is what I found:

8 Goals 2 times both wins

7 Goals 3 Times 3 wins

6 Goals 3 Times all wins

5 Goals 11 times 6 wins 5 Losses

19 Games 5 goals and over 14 wins 5 losses

4 Goals 15 Games 9 wins 6 losses

3 Goals 10 wins 6 losses

2 goals 19 games 2 wins 17 losses

1 Goal 9 games 1 win 8 losses

0 goals 4 games 4 losses

Seems we score our goals in bunches in less games. I believe our offensive output is not consistent enough, we lose way too many low goal games. 

We rely on 1 maybe 2 lines to do the majority of our scoring. Our bottom 2 lines need to be more offensively productive and our top 2 lines need to be more 2 way responsible.  If bringing in Rust helps then do it. I couldn't stand Evan Rodrigues when he was here. Now I admit I was horribly wrong. He is the type of player we need along with some toughness in both ends. 

If you look at any nhl team you're gonna find that they won the games they scored 4 or more goals is mostly. 

Also Buffalo had a terrible time in tight games and with leads. They couldn't stop opponentsfrom scoring. 

[CTJoe]

3 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

I believe Adams will make a move at the draft. Will it actually happen? Who knows, but Adams will make a move.

He (ADAMS) will trade down in the draft.  For what/whom, nobody knows.  Anybody do 9, UPL and a lesser prospect for 10 and Gibson?

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, CTJoe said:

He (ADAMS) will trade down in the draft.  For what/whom, nobody knows.  Anybody do 9, UPL and a lesser prospect for 10 and Gibson?

Lol well played

[CTJoe]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Lol well played

TY

[Thorny]

15 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

I believe Adams will make a move at the draft. Will it actually happen? Who knows, but Adams will make a move.

[Night Train]

Lineup still lacks a lot. Better see more forwards arriving. 

[Thorny]

13 minutes ago, stenbaro said:

I went back and checked out the goals per game because it seemed to me that a lot our goals came in blow out wins. Here is what I found:

8 Goals 2 times both wins

7 Goals 3 Times 3 wins

6 Goals 3 Times all wins

5 Goals 11 times 6 wins 5 Losses

19 Games 5 goals and over 14 wins 5 losses

4 Goals 15 Games 9 wins 6 losses

3 Goals 10 wins 6 losses

2 goals 19 games 2 wins 17 losses

1 Goal 9 games 1 win 8 losses

0 goals 4 games 4 losses

Seems we score our goals in bunches in less games. I believe our offensive output is not consistent enough, we lose way too many low goal games. 

We rely on 1 maybe 2 lines to do the majority of our scoring. Our bottom 2 lines need to be more offensively productive and our top 2 lines need to be more 2 way responsible.  If bringing in Rust helps then do it. I couldn't stand Evan Rodrigues when he was here. Now I admit I was horribly wrong. He is the type of player we need along with some toughness in both ends. 

Great post. Anecdotally I had perceived them to be front runners, seems there’s some statistical backing 

[CTJoe]

1 minute ago, Night Train said:

Lineup still lacks a lot. Better see more forwards arriving. 

If we trade nobody good away we need at minimum 1 top 6 LW, and I would argue a starting goalie

[Mr. Allen]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

Rust is going to look very different if he goes from Crosby or Malkin as his center to Norris or Kulich. 

Helenius is the Sabres' best center prospect. I'd say by quite a bit over Östlund. He's not untouchable, but for Rust? Hell no.

 

Edit: And from Sullivan's coaching/scheme to Ruff's, I might also add. But it's more about that he's had two HOF centers for his career.

Helenius sure would look good playing behind McKenna as Pitt’s 2nd line center.  But they would have to give up much more than Rust.  I don’t care about his stats playing next to Sid.  I don’t care that he has 2 cups.  Didn’t Evan Rodriguez win two cups and play on Sids wing for a while? 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Mr. Allen said:

Helenius sure would look good playing behind McKenna as Pitt’s 2nd line center.  But they would have to give up much more than Rust.  I don’t care about his stats playing next to Sid.  I don’t care that he has 2 cups.  Didn’t Evan Rodriguez win two cups and play on Sids wing for a while? 

Wait... how many cups does Rodriguez have?