2024 NHL DRAFT Talk

[dudacek]

I am totally on board with your thing about the fallibility of scouting.

Just look at that 2019 draft and the hit and miss of the way players went off the board.

The Flyers being absolutely furious when Bobby Sanguinetti was snatched up the pick before their’s leaving a befuddled Bob Clarke unsure of who the next guy on their list was. After checking their notes, they took Claude Giroux.

I think there’s an untold story about the Sabres busting their ***** to trade up for a defenceman last year, only to have it fall apart late.

In the meantime another player fell into their laps in Benson, who will probably turn out to be a much better player than the guy they were trying to move up for.

The Bruins didn’t pick Marchand in the 3rd round because they were smart. That same staff took Yuri Alexandro’s 34 picks earlier and Zach Hamill top 10 a year later.

You can tilt your odds, but so much of the draft is a total crapshoot.

Edited May 9 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

What if I told you that there was a guy in the draft who had scored 90 goals in the 88 games he played this season between the USDP, USHL, and WJC-U18? 

It is time to discuss Cole Eiserman, the 6' 196lb winger with a very late August bday who is only about 16 days shy of being 2025 draft eligible. He put up 90 goals and 133 total points in his 90 games played as a true 17yr old. In most years, this would be a top 5 guy so why is his consolidated ranking 14? Let's start with the good and work our way down. First this is a player that has a ptsPG number higher (1.55) than Cooley (1.49), Zegras (1,45), or Boldy (1.27) at the USDP. He is just behind Caufiled at 1.56 and that puts Eiserman at 5th for the USDP over the last 20 years. 

Shots, shots, shots! Let's just cover his shot. It is the best shot in this class and is closer to Bedard than it should be. He can shoot from just about anywhere at anytime and he can shoot heavy and quick. He is accurate. In fact there is not a single bad thing I can say about his shot. Go watch the highlights, he scores from everywhere. Now there is some debate when you get into his skating but I don't really understand it. He doesn't have any stride issues I see and he generates power and speed, often leading the rush. His skating is above average IMO with some need to incorporate more east/west cuts but again, he can do them. His shot and skating allow him to use his hands which are good but they aren't great. He catches pucks at weird angles sometimes and still manages to shoot which is impressive. His dangles though are just fine, nothing crazy that I have seen but you also aren't worried he can't manipulate someone a hair to get his shot off. Final thought is there are clips you can find where he is really physical. There is one I saw where he is driving down the wing and just pushes his way through a guy, I love it. But that is a good segue. 

So the reason Eiserman is sliding on boards is consistency. That applies to all levels of the ice IMO. Less so in the offensive zone but sometimes without the puck he is just kinda there. On defense though, we have a problem. He does a lot of drives bys. Just cruises by, puts his stick in and circles back. It drives me up a wall because, he also sometimes will engage on the defensive side and he is pretty good. He tosses his body in there and will battle and win. The issue is it doesn't happen often enough. Idk if it improved a bunch over the year (because I don't watch all the games or guys all year because I am human) but there is some stuff in reports indicating it is getting better. With all that said, I don't get the impression that Cole doesn't care about defense. In fact, I have the opposite impression and it has to do with game maturity. That sounds like I am saying he is immature but it is more like he's still learning. Look if he was a October 27th bday, I would be really worried but he's an August 29th bday meaning he just hasn't gotten all that development some others have. That brings me to this quote:

Quote

“He’s emotional, and he’s competitive. And I love him. His teammates love him. And that doesn’t mean everything’s sunshine and rainbows all the time. There’s been times where there’s some hard conversations had amongst him and his teammates, where they get after each other a little bit, but it’s done in front of each other and it’s done so that the next time they’re out there they make the right play again,” Fohr said. “And that’s really what drives him. And that’s the best perspective that I can give on him.” - USA NTDP head coach Nick Fohr  https://theathletic.com/5353960/2024/03/22/cole-eiserman-nhl-draft-2024/

He's smart and he is mature in the traditional sense. He just needs to focus and develop the defensive side of his game which is why everyone talks about "rounding out his game". I think he can get there because I get the impression he cares a lot and has worked hard to improve his game. There is another quote from the same article from Eiserman:

Quote

“I think I have a pretty well-rounded game, it just gets overlooked because of how much I score. It’s almost one of those things where the scoring rates work against you,” Eiserman said. “Obviously the No. 1 thing I do is score, but I think I pass the puck very well and that’s a big part of my game. And my 200-foot game from last year has gotten really good. My coaches are saying that it’s definitely not a problem anymore and it’s perfect.”

He seems very aware of his faults and idk, I like the edges to him. He has a bit of an attitude but it isn't a bad attitude but more of a determined attitude. Hard for me to explain. Basically I think that Eiserman is only getting better and his goal scoring will translate to the NHL. We haven't really talked about his passing but he makes some really nice passes and I think he sees the ice well, not great but well enough that he can make passes and setup teammates. The more he develops that part of the game the more it will give him tools to manipulate defenses. Is he shooting or passing? That said, his shot is good enough idk if it matters if you know he is shooting. Either way, he is a fun kid and a fascinating study. If he makes it to 14 which is San Jose again, they will take him. Mack Celebrini and Cole Eiserman are buddies and get along well. God help the NHL if Celebrini and Eiserman are playing off eachother. That's like giving Crosby Ovechkin as a winger. 

Final thought, there is a chance you are getting a pure shooter who ends up as a PP specialist but never really is a solid top line option. Is Eiserman better Olofsson or is he discount Auston Matthews? Hard to tell right now but at 11 he would be a worthy pick and is different than our other forwards. He has top line potential and if he continues to grow, could be a major steal in the draft. Hope to read some final reports on him before the draft to really give him solid consideration for the top 10. 

[dudacek]

These have been excellent @LGR4GM.

In terms of utility (as opposed to play style) are we projecting a Caufield/Debrincat type: a guy whose role is finisher, first and foremost?

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

These have been excellent @LGR4GM.

In terms of utility (as opposed to play style) are we projecting a Caufield/Debrincat type: a guy whose role is finisher, first and foremost?

He just beat Caufield's USDP scoring record but he's bigger than those 2 guys listed, significantly. I think due to not being a 5'8" which is small, he will be able to do some more things if he rounds out his game. At 6' 200lbs already with a late August birthday, we are talking about the potential for a 6'1" 210lbs forward with his shot and if he spends some time in college and maybe even the AHL really working on his game, there's a Alex Tuch with a better shot type of guy there. He's a hard projection because his floor is pp specialist who's a 3rd liner that is fine at even and his ceiling is Auston Matthews scoring with less of a 200ft game. 

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He just beat Caufield's USDP scoring record but he's bigger than those 2 guys listed, significantly. I think due to not being a 5'8" which is small, he will be able to do some more things if he rounds out his game. At 6' 200lbs already with a late August birthday, we are talking about the potential for a 6'1" 210lbs forward with his shot and if he spends some time in college and maybe even the AHL really working on his game, there's a Alex Tuch with a better shot type of guy there. He's a hard projection because his floor is pp specialist who's a 3rd liner that is fine at even and his ceiling is Auston Matthews scoring with less of a 200ft game. 

Does he have the forechecking/takeaway/carry through traffic element Tuch has?

If so, you've suddenly made me a lot more interested.

[dudacek]

Wheeler dropped his first mock and it has:

• 9 Iginla
• 10 Helenius
• 11 Yakemchuk
• 12 Catton
• 13 Eiserman

Those all look like good additions to me. They also all look like prospects with the upside teams would interested in trading for.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Does he have the forechecking/takeaway/carry through traffic element Tuch has?

If so, you've suddenly made me a lot more interested.

Sometimes. But I also think that Tuch waxes and wains with his checking. The takeaway part would be the main concern I have with Eiserman as I think that is a weak spot. In the offensive zone though, you see him carry in or through traffic. He isn't a perimeter type of guy, he goes inside to get shots off... he also will sometimes toss pucks on net from the outside cuz I think he doesn't always pick the best play. He's an incomplete player more so than some others which is hard to evaluate because he's got the tools but pulling them out of his toolbox is a bit hit and miss (except his shot, that's great). I gotta watch more on him and read more on him. I feel like I don't have a good feel for him. 

[SabreFinn]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Sometimes. But I also think that Tuch waxes and wains with his checking. The takeaway part would be the main concern I have with Eiserman as I think that is a weak spot. In the offensive zone though, you see him carry in or through traffic. He isn't a perimeter type of guy, he goes inside to get shots off... he also will sometimes toss pucks on net from the outside cuz I think he doesn't always pick the best play. He's an incomplete player more so than some others which is hard to evaluate because he's got the tools but pulling them out of his toolbox is a bit hit and miss (except his shot, that's great). I gotta watch more on him and read more on him. I feel like I don't have a good feel for him. 

So after 3 years in Rochester he could be a upgraded version on Skinner?

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, SabreFinn said:

So after 3 years in Rochester he could be a upgraded version on Skinner?

Skinner probably represents closer to a ceiling 

[Thorny]

Skinner is top 10 in even strength goals league wide, over the course of the last *10 years.* He has nearly 400 goals.

Very few nhl players have no flaws. To think we can draft some rando at 11, throw them in Rochester for 3 years and get ourselves an upgraded version of Skinner just blows my mind. Maybe an upgrade on who Skinner is in 3 years, but if that’s the argument that’s not really saying much of anything 

[LGR4GM]

25 minutes ago, SabreFinn said:

So after 3 years in Rochester he could be a upgraded version on Skinner?

 

20 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Skinner probably represents closer to a ceiling 

They don't play similar IMO. Eiserman has a better shot and not the shifty skating. Demidov would be a better comparison to Skinner. 

Edited May 9 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Skinner is top 10 in even strength goals league wide, over the course of the last *10 years.* He has nearly 400 goals.

Very few nhl players have no flaws. To think we can draft some rando at 11, throw them in Rochester for 3 years and get ourselves an upgraded version of Skinner just blows my mind. Maybe an upgrade on who Skinner is in 3 years, but if that’s the argument that’s not really saying much of anything 

Well I didn't say that. 

If you draft a guy like Eiserman to replace Skinner in this scenario, that is mistake. You have 2-3 years of Eiserman no where near the NHL and then another 2-3 years of Esierman adapting to the NHL. Maybe in 5 years you might have Eiserman able to replace Skinner. 

Skinner and Eiserman aren't connected IMO. The player on track to replace Skinner is either Benson or Kulich.

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Well I didn't say that. 

If you draft a guy like Eiserman to replace Skinner in this scenario, that is mistake. You have 2-3 years of Eiserman no where near the NHL and then another 2-3 years of Esierman adapting to the NHL. Maybe in 5 years you might have Eiserman able to replace Skinner. 

Skinner and Eiserman aren't connected IMO. The player on track to replace Skinner is either Benson or Kulich.

Didn’t say you did.

There is an eternal mystery box aspect to prospects that leads to overstated comparisons (not saying you) that is undeniable, though, just speaking to that. The actual nhl production thus often undervalued. This is something that no doubt exists, it’s ingrained in the entertainment aspect of the whole production

watch sportsnet on draft day and you’ll see: every player has an nhl comp or either nik lidstrom or jaromir Jagr

if you polled 100 random fans whether they’d be disappointed if pick 11 had the career of skinner I’d bet over half would say yes 

Edited May 9 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Comps are for playing style not, this guy will be this guy in 5 years. 

[Thorny]

34 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Comps are for playing style not, this guy will be this guy in 5 years. 

That’s a good theory, in practice that’s not how it’s being interpreted 

[French Collection]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

That’s a good theory, in practice that’s not how it’s being interpreted 

The average fan hears “he’s the next Steve Yzerman” instead of brings a two way game like Yzerman had at the end of his career.

Edited May 9 by French Collection

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

The average hears “he’s the next Steve Yzerman” instead of brings a two way game like Yzerman had at the end of his career.

I find these things are more so the breathless comprehension issues of the reader than issues with writer, though. At least if you are reading credible sources and you have a good grasp of how the draft actually works.

When someone says “Matt Savoie is small, fast, and competitive. He’s got great hands and is always moving and attacking and prowling for openings like a shark. He reminds me a little of Danny Briere.” I certainly don’t go “whoohoo, we’re going to add a Danny Briere to the lineup next year.” And I don’t think many around here do.

It just tells me that’s the type of game he plays at his current level of competition.

[Thorny]

40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I find these things are more so the breathless comprehension issues of the reader than issues with writer, though. At least if you are reading credible sources and you have a good grasp of how the draft actually works.

When someone says “Matt Savoie is small, fast, and competitive. He’s got great hands and is always moving and attacking and prowling for openings like a shark. He reminds me a little of Danny Briere.” I certainly don’t go “whoohoo, we’re going to add a Danny Briere to the lineup next year.” And I don’t think many around here do.

It just tells me that’s the type of game he plays at his current level of competition.

There’s WAY too many people who talk hockey to generalize here though. It depends on the analyst

Yes even after focusing on just the “credible” ones 

Also the draft comparables on tsn’s draft show for example are always the hall of fame guys and or superstars. Surely there are other players below that level that compare stylistically. They aren’t stupid, they know what they are doing. It’s just selling the product. I understand why they do it. 

I anecdotally do feel like a lot of people take the comps pretty literally for expectation. Skinner was just referenced in this way. As sort of a reasonably achievable level for an average first round prospect. Last year Thompson was Eric Lindros in a conversation I had on here 

Edited May 9 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

 

[PerreaultForever]

19 hours ago, dudacek said:

In the meantime another player fell into their laps in Benson, who will probably turn out to be a much better player than the guy they were trying to move up for.

The Bruins didn’t pick Marchand in the 3rd round because they were smart. That same staff took Yuri Alexandro’s 34 picks earlier and Zach Hamill top 10 a year later.

You can tilt your odds, but so much of the draft is a total crapshoot.

There's a similarity with Benson and Marchand. Marchand fell (even further) because of his size. He's a little guy and GMs always think twice on little guys (as they probably should in most cases). When a little guy is actually good he's usually a steal in the draft. 

One thing I want to throw in here many people might not know. Do you know who made Marchand into Marchand? Ted Nolan. 

[Flashsabre]

London spanking Oshawa 4-0

Dickinson is a hell of a dman.

Senneke is hurt and not playing for Oshawa.

Leafs pick Easton Cowan is a great little player. 4 points tonight.

No one finds more hockey players than the Hunter brothers. They are machines in London.

Drummondville winning 4-0. Komarov is full value. He does all the little things well that you want in a complete dman. If he continues to work on his skating the Sabres might really have something there. Memorial Cup champ, Q dman of the year this season playing in the Q final to go back to the Memorial Cup.

Baie Comeau have a small guy name Poirer up for the draft who is a great scorer.

Edited May 10 by Flashsabre

[French Collection]

25 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

No one finds more hockey players than the Hunter brothers. They are machines in London.

They run a franchise that is the best in the OHL. They have a large rink for junior hockey and fill it, so they are making tons of money.

People hate Vegas for using the LTIR rules to the nth degree. London has advantages other teams don’t have. They are a desirable place to go so kids they always seem to get guys that commit to the NCAA and are not picked by other teams. Somehow, London gets a lot of these guys to play the OHL instead. They have money so there are a lot of stories about side deals.

Their billet program treats kids first class, living in gorgeous homes and having access to high end vehicles while other small town teams have to work hard to find good living accommodations.

Dale Hunter is also a great junior coach, who churns out NHL prospects. Almost any kid would want to play there.

Both Hunters could be working in the NHL but they prefer being in London, out of the spotlight, still making great money.

[Flashsabre]

10 minutes ago, French Collection said:

They run a franchise that is the best in the OHL. They have a large rink for junior hockey and fill it, so they are making tons of money.

People hate Vegas for using the LTIR rules to the nth degree. London has advantages other teams don’t have. They are a desirable place to go so kids they always seem to get guys that commit to the NCAA and are not picked by other teams. Somehow, London gets a lot of these guys to play the OHL instead. They have money so there are a lot of stories about side deals.

Their billet program treats kids first class, living in gorgeous homes and having access to high end vehicles while other small town teams have to work hard to find good living accommodations.

Dale Hunter is also a great junior coach, who churns out NHL prospects. Almost any kid would want to play there.

Both Hunters could be working in the NHL but they prefer being in London, out of the spotlight, still making great money.

There are rumors that Mark Hunter will be named GM of Columbus. Basil McCrae is in the front office in Columbus and he owns part of the London Knights with the Hunters.

To this day I say the biggest mistake the Leafs made was picking Dubas over Mark Hunter as GM.

Edited May 10 by Flashsabre

[LGR4GM]

I've been watching Eiserman and Sennecke highlights because they are both wingers with flaws and I gotta say, I like Eiserman better. It isn't the shot either, well not just the shot. I see Eiserman driving inside more often and while I think Sennecke handles better, Eiserman seems to find the soft spots inside far better. I think I like Eiserman more primarily because of the shot but I also think some of the things that are harder to describe like what he does in the zone with and without the puck that just looks better to my eye. Contrary to popular belief around here, I do think the eye test matters as long as the numbers back it up. It is why Silayev just doesn't do it for me. The eye test matches the numbers so I dont get the hype. For all that has been written about Eiserman being bad defensively or just being a shooter or having bad skating, I just don't see that when I watch him. He has flaws for sure but the skating has power with good edges so it will improve (see Sam Reinhart), I actually will go out on a limb and say the consistency will come. His drive bys are annoying but that can be coached and shown on tape. 

I've been down an Esierman rabbit hole since yesterday, trying to make sure he isn't Dal Colle who was known for his shot but was a bust for the NYI. I also wonder if the athletic article from his coach is biasing my opinion because that makes it sound like he is a different player compared to some scouting reports. I don't have an answer but I've liked what he does away from the puck more than I thought. Specifically things I see in the offensive zone. The question I come back to is would this guy be able to help you win a playoff game and I think my answer is yes. He has this intensity that he needs to harness more consistency and better defensive zone coverage. Eiserman is the type of player I want in college for 2 years and then Rochester for 1-2 more years so he can really grow and learn and develop. There's an elite 40g first line player in there. 

[dudacek]

Isn't the Silayev thing %100 'those tools, he could be Chara'?