How the Sabres scout and draft

[Taro T]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

They actual talked about how the different levels guys play at like WJC and the such go into the evaluations. I am not surprised they want 50 looks on a guy (note that most draft eligible are not in the NCAA, that's a small list). 

Forton said with Ventura's work and the video abilities they have now, they can scout about 400 guys. 

I would guess some guys do not get 50 views though if their analytics and first 10 views are all bad. You can process that, let analytics keep tabs and move on. 

 

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

But they said they also go to the draft with only about 115 to 140 players on their draft board.

And it makes sense that they go into the draft high on the top 1/4-1/3 of the guys they've watched.  Especially when the entire draft only has ~230 picks (including the picks teams get for prior 1st rounders not signing - 224 + ?), showing up with a 140 player list will only rarely run out as after the 2nd round or so everybody has very unique ideas of who is actually draft worthy.

[#freejame]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

I never know if people are being facetious with this stuff because I hardly ever know acronyms at first glance but it usually takes all of two seconds to discern. 

[Pimlach]

12 hours ago, #freejame said:

I never know if people are being facetious with this stuff because I hardly ever know acronyms at first glance but it usually takes all of two seconds to discern. 

The response was meant to be humorous.  Not meant to be facetious, flippant, or anything other than maybe funny.  

 

@LGR4GM typed this:  "SWEj20 in P1/e60".  I bolded it because I did not understand it and it looked like a mathematical equation from my studies of over 40 years ago.  The "j" is commonly used with complex imaginary numbers.   The "e" is the symbol for the exponent when working with the natural logarithmic. 

If I had to guess I would say he was referring to Swedish Junior under 20 something.   ?  

Since he was talking about the use of analytics with scouting I came up with the picture of a guy thinking of equations.  

It should be noted that I am liking the recent drafts and the changes that Adams has made to bolster the FO.  

[LGR4GM]

52 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

The response was meant to be humorous.  Not meant to be facetious, flippant, or anything other than maybe funny.  

 

@LGR4GM typed this:  "SWEj20 in P1/e60".  I bolded it because I did not understand it and it looked like a mathematical equation from my studies of over 40 years ago.  The "j" is commonly used with complex imaginary numbers.   The "e" is the symbol for the exponent when working with the natural logarithmic. 

If I had to guess I would say he was referring to Swedish Junior under 20 something.   ?  

Since he was talking about the use of analytics with scouting I came up with the picture of a guy thinking of equations.  

It should be noted that I am liking the recent drafts and the changes that Adams has made to bolster the FO.  

Swedish Junior Under 20 league = SWEj20

Primary points (goal or 1st assist) divided by even strength ice time per 60 minutes = P1/e60

p1/e60 is basically normalizing primary even strength production by ice time so a player who gets 15mins gets evened out to the guy getting 22mins

[LGR4GM]

any time we are talking hockey and you see something like J20 or j20 it is referring to a junior league where players are 20 or younger (note that in some j20 there is an exception for 21 year old overagers)

[matter2003]

On 8/30/2022 at 9:28 AM, LGR4GM said:

What has been interesting to me (maybe only me) the last few years is how the Sabres scout players and then translate that into drafting. For a few years it seemed that whatever Murray felt like in the moment or whatever non CHL player Botterill liked were going to get picked. It felt old-school where you watched a guy and if you liked the cut of his jib, you drafted him. It got us guys like Nylander but also guys like Samuelsson as Botterill started to seemingly incorporate some numbers and the like into the model. 

None of that really matters now because we are in the Adams era with Jerry Forton as head of amateur scouting and Sam Ventura head of analytics. Forton recently said this "The Sabres won’t draft a player in any round unless they have somewhere between 50 and 100 game reports on him through in-person viewings and video scouting." and it prompted the starting of this thread. We know that Ventura built out the draft models on the analytics side but now we see what goes into the more traditional scouting side. "Ventura and his staff blew Forton away with the volume of their coverage and the way they spot trends. As analytics have become more advanced, Ventura is now working with a bigger sample size of historical data. That helps him and his staff further recognize what is useful when they’re building models."

The Sabres feed whatever data they use (I have some guesses here) into the model and compare it to a historical cohort (be still my heart). They watch 50-100 viewings of a guy. Finally they bring it all together to look at who the player actually is (I would guess intangibles come in here). Just found it interesting. 

Here is the full read if you are interested https://theathletic.com/3535709/2022/08/30/sabres-analytics-jerry-forton-scouting-department-video/?source=emp_shared_article

 

Welcome to the Adams Administration!

 

[Thorny]

On 8/30/2022 at 8:56 AM, dudacek said:

So we like Granato, and we like Ventura, and we like Karmanos and his team with the Amerks, and now we like Forton too?

What the hell is happening?

(Seriously, interesting piece. Thanks for posting)

Does Karmanos work primarily with Rochester? I was thinking he was almost co-GM with KA 

On 8/30/2022 at 2:17 PM, dudacek said:

I feel like the guy who noticed the service has improved, likes the plans the new management unveiled, and found the new sample tray a clear cut above what they used to serve.

Now I’m actually looking forward to tasting the new menu, and seeing how the new chef and his staff will develop it.

And once the restaurant and arena are filled, it’s a sign of higher expectations, and the cooking gets more finicky 

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Thorny said:

21 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Does Karmanos work primarily with Rochester? 

I wouldn’t say primarily, but GM for the Amerks is among his specific duties.