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How well did teams do with drafting in the 3rd round?


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As anyone with eyes could see, for the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round, the Buffalo Sabres did no worse, and no better than the majority of teams. So they didn’t “under perform” or "over perform" compared to a lot of teams. It would have been nice to hit on a couple 4th rounders, but the majority of the teams didn’t either.

Who’s had NHL time? So i took a 10 year sample. From 2008 - 2017. In my opinion it’s too soon to judge anyone drafted in the 3rd round in 2018 or more recently to determine if a team drafted well in the 3rd. If you disagree, then post the more recent years if you want. I added the Buffalo picks (if there are any) just to see the names. This is the round (along with 2nd, and 1st) where teams really turn from a “hope” mentality, to expect their pick to make their NHL team at some point and do rather well.

 

2008 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

65 St. Louis Jori Lehtera C 307 34 77 111 167 2018-19

67 Philadelphia Marc-Andre Bourdon D 45 4 3 7 52 2011-12

68 Chicago Shawn Lalonde D 1 0 0 0 0 2012-13

69 Phoenix Michael Stone D 472 31 93 124 264 2019-20

74 Los Angeles Andrew Campbell D 42 0 2 2 12 2015-16

75 NY Rangers Evgeny Grachev L 34 1 3 4 2 2011-12

77 Boston Michael Hutchinson G 127 0 1 1 0 2019-20

78 Calgary Lance Bouma L 357 30 46 76 210 2017-18

79 Ottawa Zack Smith L 662 98 106 204 722 2019-20

81 Buffalo Corey Fienhage D

82 New Jersey Adam Henrique C 665 186 192 378 204 2019-20

85 Anaheim Brandon McMillan L 171 14 22 36 60 2014-15

90 NY Rangers Tomas Kundratek D 30 1 6 7 10 2012-13

 

Out of 30 picks, 12 players saw at least 1 NHL game. Out of 12 players, only 7 have played 100 games or more.

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2009 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

62 NY Islanders Anders Nilsson G 161 0 3 3 6 2019-20

63 Pittsburgh Ben Hanowski R 16 1 2 3 2 2013-14

64 Colorado Tyson Barrie D 554 80 266 346 179 2019-20

65 Montreal Joonas Nattinen C 1 0 0 0 0 2013-14

66 Buffalo Brayden McNabb D 466 18 72 90 363 2019-20

68 Toronto Jamie Devane L 2 0 0 0 0 2013-14

69 Dallas Reilly Smith R 577 144 210 354 150 2019-20

70 Nashville Taylor Beck R 92 11 12 23 32 2016-17

72 Nashville Michael Latta C 113 4 13 17 130 2015-16

73 New Jersey Alexander Urbom D 34 3 1 4 28 2013-14

75 Detroit Andrej Nestrasil R 128 17 31 48 18 2016-17

77 Minnesota Matt Hackett G 26 0 0 0 0 2014-15

80 NY Rangers Ryan Bourque L 1 0 0 0 0 2014-15

83 Vancouver Kevin Connauton D 314 27 49 76 177 2019-20

84 Los Angeles Nicolas Deslauriers L 376 31 31 62 355 2019-20

85 Washington Cody Eakin C 586 103 134 237 242 2019-20

 

Out of 30 picks, 16 players saw at least 1 NHL game. Out of 16 players, only 6 have played 100 games or more.

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2010 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

62 Toronto Greg McKegg C 185 18 15 33 57 2019-20

64 Calgary Max Reinhart C 23 1 4 5 6 2014-15

66 Tampa Bay Radko Gudas D 479 26 94 120 619 2019-20

67 Carolina Danny Biega D 10 0 2 2 0 2014-15

68 Buffalo Jerome Leduc D

70 Los Angeles Jordan Weal C 218 32 37 69 56 2019-20

71 Colorado Michael Bournival L 113 12 10 22 24 2017-18

75 Buffalo Kevin Sundher C

80 Pittsburgh Bryan Rust R 309 78 92 170 104 2020-21

83 Buffalo Matt Mackenzie D

84 New Jersey Scott Wedgewood G 24 0 0 0 2 2017-18

86 Washington Stanislav Galiev L 26 1 3 4 4 2015-16

87 Atlanta Julian Melchiori D 30 0 2 2 8 2016-17

89 Philadelphia Michael Chaput C 169 6 16 22 78 2019-20

90 Chicago Joakim Nordstrom C 400 31 37 68 71 2019-20

 

Out of 30 picks, 12 players saw at least 1 NHL game. Out of 12 players, only 7 have played 100 games or more.

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2011 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

63 NY Islanders Andrey Pedan D 13 0 0 0 18 2015-16

64 Florida Vincent Trocheck C 427 112 172 284 274 2019-20

65 Anaheim Joseph Cramarossa C 59 4 6 10 60 2016-17

66 Columbus T.J. Tynan C 19 0 1 1 2 2019-20

67 Winnipeg Adam Lowry C 408 57 66 123 215 2019-20

68 Philadelphia Nick Cousins C 324 41 57 98 138 2019-20

70 Chicago Michael Paliotta D 2 0 1 1 4 2015-16

72 NY Rangers Steven Fogarty C 18 0 0 0 2 2019-20

73 Carolina Keegan Lowe D 4 0 0 0 10 2017-18

75 New Jersey Blake Coleman C 247 57 38 95 204 2020-21

76 Florida Logan Shaw R 215 15 21 36 35 2019-20

77 Buffalo Daniel Catenacci C 12 0 0 0 0 2017-18

79 Chicago Klas Dahlbeck D 170 6 17 23 87 2017-18

80 Los Angeles Andy Andreoff L 173 13 12 25 216 2019-20

82 Los Angeles Nick Shore C 299 18 41 59 98 2019-20

83 Anaheim Andy Welinski D 33 1 5 6 8 2018-19

85 Detroit Alan Quine C 106 10 18 28 22 2019-20

86 Toronto Joshua Leivo L 169 31 34 65 56 2019-20

87 Florida Jonathan Racine D 1 0 0 0 2 2013-14

88 St. Louis Jordan Binnington G 84 0 1 1 4 2020-21

90 Vancouver Alexandre Grenier R 9 0 0 0 2 2016-17

91 Florida Kyle Rau C 42 2 3 5 6 2018-19

 

Out of 30 picks, 22 players saw at least 1 NHL game. Out of 22 players, only 10 have played 100 games or more.

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2012 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

62 Columbus Joonas Korpisalo G 127 0 1 1 2 2019-20

63 Edmonton Jujhar Khaira L 219 21 31 52 143 2020-21

65 NY Islanders Adam Pelech D 247 12 49 61 78 2019-20

66 Nashville Jimmy Vesey L 305 60 51 111 82 2020-21

67 St. Louis Mackenzie MacEachern L 80 10 5 15 43 2019-20

70 Winnipeg Scott Kosmachuk R 8 0 3 3 2 2015-16

71 Tampa Bay Tanner Richard C 3 0 0 0 2 2016-17

73 Buffalo Justin Kea C

74 Dallas Esa Lindell D 308 27 73 100 91 2019-20

75 Calgary Jon Gillies G 12 0 0 0 2 2017-18

3 76 Ottawa Chris Driedger G 15 0 0 0 0 2019-20

77 Washington Chandler Stephenson C 209 22 33 55 26 2019-20

78 Philadelphia Shayne Gostisbehere D 340 51 148 199 123 2019-20

81 Pittsburgh Oskar Sundqvist C 202 30 35 65 70 2020-21

83 Pittsburgh Matt Murray G 199 0 4 4 8 2019-20

85 Boston Matt Grzelcyk D 197 10 44 54 126 2019-20

86 St. Louis Colton Parayko D 387 39 120 159 105 2020-21

87 Anaheim Frederik Andersen G 370 0 9 9 26 2020-21

89 Nashville Brendan Leipsic L 187 16 43 59 53 2019-20

 

Out of 30 picks, 18 players saw at least 1 NHL game. Out of 18 players, only 13 have played 100 games or more.

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2013 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

63 Colorado Spencer Martin G 3 0 0 0 0 2016-17

66 Carolina Brett Pesce D 350 20 82 102 105 2019-20

69 Buffalo Nick Baptiste R 47 7 3 10 20 2017-18

72 Philadelphia Tyrell Goulbourne L 11 0 0 0 2 2018-19

74 Chicago John Hayden C 156 11 15 26 162 2019-20

75 NY Rangers Pavel Buchnevich R 247 59 88 147 70 2019-20

77 Pittsburgh Jake Guentzel L 244 98 102 200 92 2020-21

78 Ottawa Marcus Hogberg G 28 0 0 0 0 2019-20

79 Detroit Mattias Janmark-Nylen C 298 46 63 109 76 2020-21

80 NY Rangers Anthony Duclair L 353 79 83 162 115 2019-20

81 Minnesota Kurtis Gabriel R 38 2 3 5 98 2018-19

82 Toronto Carter Verhaeghe C 52 9 4 13 8 2019-20

83 Edmonton Bogdan Yakimov C 1 0 0 0 0 2014-15

86 Montreal Sven Andrighetto R 216 31 52 83 42 2018-19

88 Edmonton Anton Slepyshev L 102 10 13 23 14 2017-18

89 Columbus Oliver Bjorkstrand R 246 65 68 133 35 2019-20

90 Boston Peter Cehlarik L 40 5 6 11 10 2019-20

91 Winnipeg JC Lipon R 9 0 1 1 5 2015-16

 

Out of 30 picks, 18 players saw at least 1 NHL game. Out of 18 players, only 9 have played 100 games or more.

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2014 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

61 Buffalo Jonas Johansson G 6 0 0 0 0 2019-20

63 Detroit Dominic Turgeon C 9 0 0 0 2 2018-19

65 Florida Juho Lammikko R 40 06 6 6 2018-19

66 Vancouver Nikita Tryamkin D 79 3 8 11 74 2016-17

67 Carolina Warren Foegele L 147 25 23 48 54 2019-20

68 Toronto Rinat Valiev D 12 0 0 0 2 2017-18

73 Montreal Brett Lernout D 21 0 1 1 6 2017-18

74 Buffalo Brycen Martin D

76 Columbus Elvis Merzlikins G 33 0 0 0 0 2019-20

79 Tampa Bay Brayden Point C 296 117 147 264 77 2020-21

80 Minnesota Louis Belpedio D 3 0 2 2 0 2018-19

82 St. Louis Jake Walman D 1 0 0 0 0 2019-20

86 Philadelphia Mark Friedman D 7 0 1 1 2 2019-20

89 Washington Nathan Walker L 17 2 2 4 12 2019-20

90 Los Angeles Mike Amadio C 148 16 21 37 24 2019-20

 

Out of 30 picks, 14 players saw at least 1 NHL game. Out of 14 players, only 3 have played 100 games or more.

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2015 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

63 Arizona Kyle Capobianco D 12 1 0 1 2 2019-20

66 Vancouver Guillaume Brisebois D 8 0 0 0 0 2018-19

67 New Jersey Blake Speers C 3 0 0 0 0 2016-17

69 Columbus Keegan Kolesar R 1 0 0 0 0 2019-20

71 Colorado Jean-Christophe Beaudin C 22 0 1 1 7 2019-20

72 Tampa Bay Anthony Cirelli C 169 41 55 96 70 2020-21

76 Arizona Adin Hill G 30 0 0 0 2 2019-20

77 Florida Samuel Montembeault G 25 0 1 1 0 2019-20

87 Montreal Lukas Vejdemo C 7 1 0 1 0 2019-20

89 NY Rangers Aleksi Saarela C 9 2 2 4 0 2019-20

91 Chicago Dennis Gilbert D 22 1 2 3 40 2019-20

 

Out of 30 picks, 11 players saw at least 1 NHL game. Out of 11 players, only 1 have played 100 games or more.

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2016 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

65 Columbus Vitaly Abramov L 3 1 0 1 2 2019-20

66 Calgary Adam Fox D 70 8 34 42 32 2019-20

69 Buffalo Cliff Pu R

73 New Jersey Joey Anderson R 52 8 5 13 8 2019-20

76 Nashville Rem Pitlick C 1 0 0 0 2 2018-19

80 New Jersey Brandon Gignac C 1 0 0 0 0 2018-19

82 Philadelphia Carsen Twarynski L 15 1 0 1 4 2019-20

85 Anaheim Josh Mahura D 28 2 7 9 6 2019-20

86 Buffalo Casey Fitzgerald D

 

Out of 30 picks, 7 players saw at least 1 NHL game. Out of 7 players, no one has played 100 games or more.

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2017 Draft

Pick number/Drafting Team/Player/Position/NHL games played/Goals/Assists/Points/PIM’s/Last NHL season

64 Vancouver Michael DiPietro G 2 0 0 0 0 2019-20

67 Carolina Morgan Geekie C 2 3 1 4 2 2019-20

87 Montreal Cale Fleury D 41 1 0 1 6 2019-20

89 Buffalo Oskari Laaksonen D

 

Out of 30 picks, 3 players saw at least 1 NHL game. Out of 3 players, no one has played 100 games or more.

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Even in the 3rd round .... The majority of picks just don't make it to the NHL and the majority of the ones that do, don't have long NHL careers.

2010 draft for Buffalo was .... ugly. yikes! And passing on Brayden Point ... Ouch! Wish Sabres could have hit well on at least one, if not two picks in this 10 year span.

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League wide, 56 players out of 300 played at least 100 games.  19%
 

Buffalo had 1 out of 13 play at least 100 games.  Not quite 8%. I’d say the draft criticism starts to be rational here.

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1 hour ago, Weave said:

League wide, 56 players out of 300 played at least 100 games.  19%
 

Buffalo had 1 out of 13 play at least 100 games.  Not quite 8%. I’d say the draft criticism starts to be rational here.

Interesting ...

Of the players that have played 100 or more, What was the “hit rate” of other teams? 
Are most teams above/below 8%?
 

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3 hours ago, Weave said:

League wide, 56 players out of 300 played at least 100 games.  19%
 

Buffalo had 1 out of 13 play at least 100 games.  Not quite 8%. I’d say the draft criticism starts to be rational here.

Yep.

And there are a few others like Binnington that aren't at 100 games yet that surely will surpass that milestone.  So teams will hit 20-25% in that round, unless they draft like the Sabres.

Simply have to be better here.

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2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Yep.

And there are a few others like Binnington that aren't at 100 games yet that surely will surpass that milestone.  So teams will hit 20-25% in that round, unless they draft like the Sabres.

Simply have to be better here.

I've not been as critical of Buffalo's drafting record as others.  1 out of 5 in the 3rd round is not good odds at all. 2 players per decade.  So when we look at a GM with a 3 yr tenure, I'm not inclined to judge based on 3rd round and later results.  But man, it's a bad look for the organization as a whole when you are half that hit rate over a decade.

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2 minutes ago, Weave said:

I've not been as critical of Buffalo's drafting record as others.  1 out of 5 in the 3rd round is not good odds at all. 2 players per decade.  So when we look at a GM with a 3 yr tenure, I'm not inclined to judge based on 3rd round and later results.  But man, it's a bad look for the organization as a whole when you are half that hit rate over a decade.

Well, it's not just lowered success compared to the league, it's also trading away those picks, which on it's face is a smart thing to do when YOU will only hit once every 12 years, but without a 3rd rounder a lot of opportunity to give an offer sheet to an RFA is out the door. 

Haven't been 1 to pillory the Sabres for drafting, though haven't celebrated it either, but pretty sure the results of Zamboni's efforts will lead to joining the pitchfork crowd.

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Point and Cirelli, eh?

Meanwhile, our only hit (McNabb) we traded away for a 4th-round pick (Hudson Fasching) and a 3rd (Deslauriers, on this list). And we threw in two 2nds to go with it. None of those players were proven at the time.

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2 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I just want to know, Of the players that have played 100 games or more, What was the “hit rate” of other teams during that 10 year span.
Are most teams above/below 8%?

I don't have the interest to repeat this task 29 times.  Hell, I don't have the interest to collect it once.  But if league wide the rate is just under 20%, that's got to suggest that quite a few teams are above that if some are below.

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I just went alphabetically and did a handful of teams here to compare Buffalo at 8% hit rate with a few other teams.

 

Anaheim Ducks 3rd round picks (2008-2017) that played 100 or more NHL games.
12 players total.
2 players have played 100 or more games. 
16% hit rate.

 

Arizona Coyotes 3rd round picks (2008-2017) that played 100 or more NHL games. 
15 players total. 
1 player has played 100 or more games. 
6% hit rate

 

Boston Bruins 3rd round picks (2008-2017) that played 100 or more NHL games. 
6 players total. 
2 players have played 100 or more games. 
33% hit rate

 

Calgary Flames 3rd round picks (2008-2017) that played 100 or more NHL games. 
8 players total  
1 player has played 100 or more games. 
12% hit rate

 

Carolina Hurricanes 3rd round picks (2008-2017) that played 100 or more NHL games. 
12 players total 
2 players have played 100 or more games. 
16% hit rate

 

Chicago Blackhawks 3rd round picks (2008-2017) that played 100 or more NHL games. 
13 players total  
3 players have played 100 or more games. 
23% hit rate

 

Colorado Avalanche 3rd round picks (2008-2017) that played 100 or more NHL games. 
7 players total  
2 players have played 100 or more games.  
14% hit rate

 

Yea, Buffalo needs to start hitting on the 3rd rounders just a little more. Even if it’s 1 out of every 6 picks.

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Quite a few teams on that list that traded a significant number of 3rd rd picks.  At 19% average its a low risk asset to move.

And yeah, Buf is definitely below average by a fair degree in the 3rd round.

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19 hours ago, Zamboni said:

I just want to know, Of the players that have played 100 games or more, What was the “hit rate” of other teams during that 10 year span.
Are most teams above/below 8%?

I can show this from a slightly different angle.  What are the odds of a player being a 'difference maker' on any level?  For that, lets look at players that have made at least 1 all star team (once again, at least one.....some of them have only made one meaning they may not be 'stars' but at least a difference maker.)

Look at the 10 years of drafts from 2009-2018 (2019 and later most players may not have even had a good chance to mature enough to the NHL level) and what is the odds you will get a player good enough to make at least 1 all star team from a period of 10 years of drafts?

Top 5 pick:   25  players, 50%   1 in 2 chance

Pick 6-10:   12  players, 24%     about 1 in 4 chance

First round after pick 10:  16 players, 8%    about 1 in 12.5 chance

2nd round:  9 players, 3%   about 1 in 33 chance

3rd:  7 players, about 2%   about 1 in 44 chance

4th:  2 players, less than 1%   about 1 in 150 chance

5th:  2 players, less than 1%

6th:  2 players, less than 1%

7th:  1 player, less than 1%

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