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sweetlou

19-20 goal predictions

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Camp will begin in the next few weeks, so here is an early look at goal predictions.

Eichel- 31 goals, 78 games played

Skinner- 30 goals, 80 games played

Reinhart- 23 goals, 76 games played

Olofson- 20 goals, 74 games played

Vesey- 19 goals, 78 games played

Johansson- 14 goals, 69 games played

Mittelstadt- 14 goals, 79 games played

Okposo- 12 goals, 73 games played

Rodrigues- 11 goals, 77 games played

Dahlin- 10 goals, 80 games played

Sheary- 9 goals, 56 games played (traded at deadline or could be part of deal earlier)

Thompson- 7 goals, 34 games played (late season call up who has success after dominating in AHL at start of year)

Montour- 7 goals, 79 games played

Risto- 7 goals, 80 games played (if not traded before year starts)

Miller- 6 goals, 75 games played

Girgensons- 5 goals, 74 games played

Larsson- 5 goals, 77 games played

McCabe- 4 goals, 74 games played

Scandella- 3 goals, 60 games played (traded at deadline for 5th rd pick

Pilut- 2 goals, 44 games (starts year with Amerks, comes up later in year)

Jokiharju- 2 goals, 46 games (starts year with Amerks, comes up later in year)

all others 7 goals

Goal total for year= 248 goals

 

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I’ve been saying VO will hit 25 for a while now. I expect both Eichel and Skinner to clear 30. I would like to see Reinhart break 25 this year with 45 assists. Hoping for 80 goals total from Vesey, Johansson, E-Rod, Sheary, and Mitts. 25 from Girgs, Larry and Okposo is likely a stretch, but I think it can be done. That makes 215 on offense. Not sure about defense or what our total was last year, but I feel like it was less than this.

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Eichel - 30
Skinner - 36
Reinhart - 24
Johansson - 13
Sheary - 12
Olofsson - 18
Vesey - 14
Okposo - 12
Mittelstadt - 15
Larsson - 4
Girgensons - 4
Rodrigues - 9
The rest of the forwards that will play: 6
Dahlin - 10
Risto - 7
Montour - 6
McCabe - 3
Scandella - 4
Bogosian - 2
Miller - 7
Pilut/Joki/the rest - 2

Total: 238
 

In reality not that many forwards will hit double digits, but maybe some of them over-achieve.

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^ That seems like a pretty good guess. You’d have to think Skinner leading in goals is all but a certainty if him and Jack are playing together most of the time again. 

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I think this is the most likely lineup based on the players we currently have.  If everyone stays healthy and the kids progress the upside of this lineup is 270, but 245-250 is more realistic 

Skinner, Eichel, Vesey = 87 goals (35, 32, 20)

Johansson Mitts Reinhart = 64 goals (20, 18, 26)

Olofsson Erod Thompson = 40 goals (16, 10, 14)

Girgensons Larsson Okposo = 29 goals plus Sobotka’s 3 for 32 (9, 9, 11, 3)

Dahlin Montour = 24 goals (15, 7)

McCabe Risto = 10 goals (4, 6)

Scandella Miller = 10 goals add another 2 each for Bogo and Nelson for 14 goals (4, 6, 2, 2)

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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GA - I think it's more likely Sheary plays in that spot (and hits that many goals) than Thompson. 

The other numbers seem reasonable, it would be nice for Larry/Zemgus to hit that many - I think they can if their role gets eased up on a bit. Larry in particular actually has a shot when he gets to use it.

Man, if Dahlin hits 15.....

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6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think this is the most likely lineup based on the players we currently have.  If everyone stays healthy and the kids progress the upside of this lineup is 270, but 245-250 is more realistic 

Skinner, Eichel, Vesey = 87 goals (35, 32, 20)

Johansson Mitts Reinhart = 64 goals (20, 18, 26)

Olofsson Erod Thompson = 40 goals (16, 10, 14)

Girgensons Larsson Okposo = 29 goals plus Sobotka’s 3 for 32 (9, 9, 11, 3)

Dahlin Montour = 24 goals (15, 7)

McCabe Risto = 10 goals (4, 6)

Scandella Miller = 10 goals add another 2 each for Bogo and Nelson for 14 goals (4, 6, 2, 2)

270 (271 in your lineup) goals would be good for 8th overall in the league last year, up from 24th overall last year. Like it's making me look like a negative nancy but I'm going to keep pointing out these things because that's just not a realistic upside even.

Even 250 goals put us at 13th place. I'm not sure the adds Botterill has made this summer, particularly at F, are enough to grant us this massive jump up the standings list for goals. 

Edited by Thorny

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5 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

GA - I think it's more likely Sheary plays in that spot (and hits that many goals) than Thompson. 

The other numbers seem reasonable, it would be nice for Larry/Zemgus to hit that many - I think they can if their role gets eased up on a bit. Larry in particular actually has a shot when he gets to use it.

Man, if Dahlin hits 15.....

You think 271 goals seems reasonable? That's Top 10 in the NHL. 

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1 minute ago, Thorny said:

You think 271 goals seems reasonable? That's Top 10 in the NHL. 

Not all together, but I don't think any one of those players individually would have an unrealistic chance at hitting those goal totals. 

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2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Not all together, but I don't think any one of those players individually would have an unrealistic chance at hitting those goal totals. 

It seemed the exercise was to project the total outcome of team goals. To project what our lineup might realistically achieve this year.

As an individual player predictor, sure, it would have more value. But if we are looking at it and adding up the total goals and calling that reachable, I don't think that's very fair. 

Edited by Thorny

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54 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It seemed the exercise was to project the total outcome of team goals. To project what our lineup might realistically achieve this year.

As an individual player predictor, sure, it would have more value. But if we are looking at it and adding up the total goals and calling that reachable, I don't think that's very fair. 

And I guess I'd agree, since my very own total in this thread was 238

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22 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

And I guess I'd agree, since my very own total in this thread was 238

And I did “like” that. Guess I was just confused with your wording in the context of that reply. 

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9 hours ago, Thorny said:

270 (271 in your lineup) goals would be good for 8th overall in the league last year, up from 24th overall last year. Like it's making me look like a negative nancy but I'm going to keep pointing out these things because that's just not a realistic upside even.

Even 250 goals put us at 13th place. I'm not sure the adds Botterill has made this summer, particularly at F, are enough to grant us this massive jump up the standings list for goals. 

I get that you don't like Jbot and the rosters he has built so far.  I get that my numbers are to rosy for you.  I also agree the 270 is a best case scenario, especially considering that I also said 245-250 is more realistic.  However jumps like this one are possible. The Sabres in the first half last year were on pace for nearly 240 goals.  

Also tell me which number I put out there that isn't reasonable

Skinner - Predicted 35 - 18/19 - 40

Eichel - (P) 32 - 18/19 - 28 (Is it really to much to ask a maturing Eichel to score 4 more goals?)

Vesey - (p) 20 - 18/19 - 17 (without much PP time and he'll be on the 2nd PP here and playing with a better center)

Johansson (p) 20 - 18/19 - 13 (in 58 games which is over 18 goals in a full season)

Mittelstadt (p) 18 - 18/19 - 12 (Is it really to hard to imagine that a developing player playing an expanding role with better winger goes from 12 to 18?)

Reinhart (p) 26 - 18/19 - 22 (but with past seasons of 23 and 25 in recent years)

Olofsson (p)16 - 18/19 - 2 (in 6 games - which equates to 27 in 82 games and he also scored 30 in 66 AHL games)

Rodrigues (p) 10 - 18/19 - 9 (he also had 7 in 48 games the prior year)

Sheary (or Thompson) (p) 14 -18/19 - Sheary 14 (Thompson had 7 in 65 games in Buffalo plus 6 more in 8 AHL games)

Girgensons (p) 9 - 18/19 - 5 (after 3 straight 7 goal seasons - new coach should give him and Larsson for O Zone starts then the 15% PH gave them)

Larsson (p) 9 - 18/19 - 6 (See Girgensons and add that he has scored 10 before in 15/16)

Okposo (p) 11 - 18/19 - 14

Dahlin (p) 15 - 18/19 - 9 (He had 9 as a rookie and now will skate on the 1st PP)

Montour (p) 7 - 18/19 - 8 ( 3 in only 20 Games with the Sabres which would equate to 12 over a full season in Buffalo and had 9 in 17/18)

McCabe (p) 4 - 18/19 - 4

Risto (p) 6 - 18/19 - 5 (but he has scored 8, 9, 6, 6 in his prior seasons)

Scandella (p) 4 - 18/19 - 6

Miller (p) 6 - 18/19 - 3 (but had 10 in 17/18 and 6 in 16/17)

Again I ask which of my numbers isn't realistic?

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I don’t “not like Jbot and the rosters he has built so far.” 

I just think there’s a glaring hole or two. 

There are several things I’ve said I like about the roster, including the defence (though I’ll like it more if Risto is moved) and I think we have 4/6ths of a top 6 (though I’ll like it more if Risto is moved). I think the bottom 6 could be solid if we adequately fill out the top 6. I’m skeptical of Botterill adequately addressing the top 6 this summer and I’ve been pretty consistent in that being the big thing for me. Goaltending looks questionable but the coaching may help, and coaching is in fact very interesting across the board. 

Not all rainbows but I don’t hate GMJB. I actually think we are only one or two moves/players away from having a solid roster, but they are significant moves. 

- - - 

As for your numbers, as I mentioned before it’s more of a cumulative thing. You have basically everyone going up from last year except Skinner, Okposo and Montour. It just doesn’t usually happen like that. Some of the things that you’ve outlined that contributed to lower totals before, will happen again. Things like injuries and what have you. 

Each of the projections is reasonably likely, but that doesn’t mean all of them happening at once, is. 

This doesn't mean I'm not hoping Skinner goes off and score 45-50 and a bunch of other good (and possible) stuff all happens, though.  

Edited by Thorny

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44 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I don’t “not like Jbot and the rosters he has built so far.” 

I just think there’s a glaring hole or two. 

There are several things I’ve said I like about the roster, including the defence (though I’ll like it more if Risto is moved) and I think we have 4/6ths of a top 6 (though I’ll like it more if Risto is moved). I think the bottom 6 could be solid if we adequately fill out the top 6. I’m skeptical of Botterill adequately addressing the top 6 this summer and I’ve been pretty consistent in that being the big thing for me. Goaltending looks questionable but the coaching may help, and coaching is in fact very interesting across the board. 

Not all rainbows but I don’t hate GMJB. I actually think we are only one or two moves/players away from having a solid roster, but they are significant moves. 

- - - 

As for your numbers, as I mentioned before it’s more of a cumulative thing. You have basically everyone going up from last year except Skinner, Okposo and Montour. It just doesn’t usually happen like that. Some of the things that you’ve outlined that contributed to lower totals before, will happen again. Things like injuries and what have you. 

Each of the projections is reasonably likely, but that doesn’t mean all of them happening at once, is. 

This doesn't mean I'm not hoping Skinner goes off and score 45-50 and a bunch of other good (and possible) stuff all happens, though.  

You do realize that all I’m asking for is a 10% year over year improvement.  They scored 226 last year.  Add 10% and you get 250. 

Surely Vesey Olofsson Johansson Montour and Miller are worth 10%?

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You do realize that all I’m asking for is a 10% year over year improvement.  They scored 226 last year.  Add 10% and you get 250. 

Surely Vesey Olofsson Johansson Montour and Miller are worth 10%?

You also have to consider that one of Vesey, VO, or Johansson are a replacement for Pommers. If you subtract one it puts you closer to your 250 prediction. Being a replacement would mean it's not added goals to the previous year totals.

But I like your enthusiasm.

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Eichel 40

Skinner 36

Oloffson 28

(one line team baby yeah)

Johansson 25

Vesey 21

Reinhart 15

Mittelstadt 15

Okposo 16

Rodrigues 15

Sheary 8

Girgenson 8

Thompson 4

Larsson 4

Wilson 2

Cozens 2

 

 

Dahlin 22

Montour 12

Ristolainen 4

Miller 7

Pilut 7

McCabe 6

Bogosian 1

Nelson 0

Scandella 0

 

 

Hutton 1

Ullmark 0

 

306 TOP SCORERS IN THE LEAGUE YEAHHHHHHHH

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5 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Eichel 40

Skinner 36

Oloffson 28

(one line team baby yeah)

Johansson 25

Vesey 21

Reinhart 15

Mittelstadt 15

Okposo 16

Rodrigues 15

Sheary 8

Girgenson 8

Thompson 4

Larsson 4

Wilson 2

Cozens 2

 

 

Dahlin 22

Montour 12

Ristolainen 4

Miller 7

Pilut 7

McCabe 6

Bogosian 1

Nelson 0

Scandella 0

 

 

Hutton 1

Ullmark 0

 

306 TOP SCORERS IN THE LEAGUE YEAHHHHHHHH

Would Dahlin be the youngest D-man to break twenty goals?

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42 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Eichel 40

Skinner 36

Oloffson 28

(one line team baby yeah)

Johansson 25

Vesey 21

Reinhart 15

 

I will bet you $100 right now that barring injury, Sam Reinhart will have more than 15 goals. I can basically guarantee it. 

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1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

Eichel 40

Skinner 36

Oloffson 28

(one line team baby yeah)

Johansson 25

Vesey 21

Reinhart 15

Mittelstadt 15

Okposo 16

Rodrigues 15

Sheary 8

Girgenson 8

Thompson 4

Larsson 4

Wilson 2

Cozens 2

 

 

Dahlin 22

Montour 12

Ristolainen 4

Miller 7

Pilut 7

McCabe 6

Bogosian 1

Nelson 0

Scandella 0

 

 

Hutton 1

Ullmark 0

 

306 TOP SCORERS IN THE LEAGUE YEAHHHHHHHH

Oloffson, Vesey, Johansson, and Okposo will not score more than Reinhart. Skinner will have more than Eichel.

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2 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

WRONG

About Reinhart? Please, enlighten me. You put Reinhart at 15goals. Why. 

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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I will bet you $100 right now that barring injury, Sam Reinhart will have more than 15 goals. I can basically guarantee it. 

Is Reinhart more likely to score 35 or 15? For the record, I think he’ll be at ~25. 

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1 hour ago, Marions Piazza said:

Oloffson, Vesey, Johansson, and Okposo will not score more than Reinhart. Skinner will have more than Eichel.

Olofsson will score more than Reinhart. 26>25

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