Jbot Do Something Already - 4 Saving the Playoffs Edition

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Potential roster for 20/21

Skinner 8.5* Eichel 10 Nylander/Olofsson .9

Thompson 3* Mittelstadt 3* Reinhart 7

Smith 1.2* Acquisition ? Acquisition ?

Girgensons 1.8* Larsson 1.8* Okposo 6

Dahlin .9 Acquisition ?

McCabe 3.5* Risto 5.4

Pilut 2.5 * Borgen .8

Ullmark 3.5*

Hutton 2.7

 

*Based on reasonable growth and market value as of their contract year.

That’s around a $63 million team give or take with three holes to fill.

Dahlin would be up for a significant raise the following year. Risto is a UFA and Okposo in his last year, the year after that. The kids would still all be RFAs.

We can make some significant acquisitions in the next two years and still have plenty of room to not worry much about selling people off, even if someone like Mittelstadt explodes heading into his third contract.

This seems highly accurate. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Thorny

[...]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Potential roster for 20/21

Skinner 8.5* Eichel 10 Nylander/Olofsson .9

Thompson 3* Mittelstadt 3* Reinhart 7

Smith 1.2* Acquisition ? Acquisition ?

Girgensons 1.8* Larsson 1.8* Okposo 6

Dahlin .9 Acquisition ?

McCabe 3.5* Risto 5.4

Pilut 2.5 * Borgen .8

Ullmark 3.5*

Hutton 2.7

 

*Based on reasonable growth and market value as of their contract year.

That’s around a $63 million team give or take with three holes to fill.

Dahlin would be up for a significant raise the following year. Risto is a UFA and Okposo in his last year, the year after that. The kids would still all be RFAs.

We can make some significant acquisitions in the next two years and still have plenty of room to not worry much about selling people off, even if someone like Mittelstadt explodes heading into his third contract.

Nice, duds.  This makes the future look less bleak.  I'm not sold on Nylander/Olofsson being on that first line, although I'd like to be.  They can be swapped out to that third line, though, and more expensive player put on the first and it would even out.  

[PerreaultForever]

18 hours ago, Taro T said:

The need for a 2C doesn't magically disappear next season.  THAT transformation happens the following year when Mittelstadt finally (hopefully) is ready for the role.  There is no point in delaying the team's growth another year simply to keep ALL the bullets that MIGHT be available 4 years from now in the holster.  Do this right, & this new guy will be a useful part of the next 3+ years.  THAT is worth a small premium.

There aren't a lot of FA centers coming up that aren't over the hill or close to it. So you want to trade assets for one from a team that throws in the towel. Which magic fix do you have in mind that you can actually get without giving up first round picks or good assets that'll be missed in the near future?

 

[jame]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

There aren't a lot of FA centers coming up that aren't over the hill or close to it. So you want to trade assets for one from a team that throws in the towel. Which magic fix do you have in mind that you can actually get without giving up first round picks or good assets that'll be missed in the near future?

 

Eric Staal

id gladly give up a late 1st to rent him

pros: significantly increase odds of making playoffs, improve the play and development of our middle six, potential to re-sign him to a 2 year deal

cons: none 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, jame said:

Eric Staal

id gladly give up a late 1st to rent him

pros: significantly increase odds of making playoffs, improve the play and development of our middle six, potential to re-sign him to a 2 year deal

cons: none 

Cons... you piss away a late first so you can lose in the first round of the playoffs to Tampa. You could have signed him in the offseason to do all the other things you list. That late 1st could actually be a decent player in this draft and now you won't have him and you could not have Staal in 3 months. 

[jame]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Cons... you piss away a late first so you can lose in the first round of the playoffs to Tampa. You could have signed him in the offseason to do all the other things you list. That late 1st could actually be a decent player in this draft and now you won't have him and you could not have Staal in 3 months. 

I value that first round loss immensely. I think it makes a huge difference to our young core. The taste of success, the post season experience, the level of competition, etc the intangible value of the young core getting that exposure now,  vastly outweighs the 27th pick and its potential impact in 2022

Edited January 24, 2019 by jame

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, jame said:

I value that first round loss immensely. I think it makes a huge difference to our young core. The taste of success, the post season experience, the level of competition, etc the intangible value of the young core getting that exposure now,  vastly outweighs the 27th pick and its potential impact in 2022

Not really, because in 2022, this team will need that 1st round prospect to be ready to contribute if we want a cup. Think Brayden Point (3rd round pick yes but still) Tampa will be better this year because they have Point on a cheap deal. 

Also, I think the Sabres can add a piece and make the playoffs without giving up those first round picks. 

[jame]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Not really, because in 2022, this team will need that 1st round prospect to be ready to contribute if we want a cup. Think Brayden Point (3rd round pick yes but still) Tampa will be better this year because they have Point on a cheap deal. 

Also, I think the Sabres can add a piece and make the playoffs without giving up those first round picks. 

So draft Brayden Point in the 3rd round...

we cant operate in a world where every draft pick is critical to the future. It’s not like trading a first is going to hole out the pipeline like Murray did trading 15 picks/prospect.

brayden point on a cheap deal is a great example of how we are wasting Dahlin’s ELC right now.

I don’t think they can add what they need without giving up a 1st... Brassard won’t move the needle enough.

 

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, jame said:

So draft Brayden Point in the 3rd round...

we cant operate in a world where every draft pick is critical to the future. It’s not like trading a first is going to hole out the pipeline like Murray did trading 15 picks/prospect.

brayden point on a cheap deal is a great example of how we are wasting Dahlin’s ELC right now.

I don’t think they can add what they need without giving up a 1st... Brassard won’t move the needle enough.

 

The bolded was an example of a cheap player contributing on an ELC. We are not wasting anything, the team isn't there yet and we don't have all our pieces in place. Tampa wasted Stamkos for years but built the right way and are now getting the benefits. 

Our pipeline is a mess for the very reason you cite. That is why we should use the picks and get the best talent we can. We will need it before this is through.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 minutes ago, jame said:

I value that first round loss immensely. I think it makes a huge difference to our young core. The taste of success, the post season experience, the level of competition, etc the intangible value of the young core getting that exposure now,  vastly outweighs the 27th pick and its impact on our future.

I think that Bots is gonna at least wait until the bewitching hour IF he makes a move at all. I believe he hopes that this young team that went on a 10 game streak (no matter how much luck may have contributed) can figure this out for themselves. That would be a bigger learning experience and confidence builder than bringing in someone that might give false hope that one player more is the difference between winning and losing. They already have shown evidence they can play with the big boys when on their game and following the system provided.

I'm ok with trading a late 1st to get some of the players name on these threads as a 2C that have term, are young, and proven. I'm not at ease with the idea of a rental like Staal unless Bots is confident in re-signing another year or two if he feels necessary.

There are enough vets here to advise these kids through this tough time and I feel they need to figure this out amongst themselves for the better of the teams future. If you can add a key piece to the future such as a Couturier or Schenn or the likes, then I'm in as long as we don't grossly over pay. 

[jame]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The bolded was an example of a cheap player contributing on an ELC. We are not wasting anything, the team isn't there yet and we don't have all our pieces in place. Tampa wasted Stamkos for years but built the right way and are now getting the benefits. 

Our pipeline is a mess for the very reason you cite. That is why we should use the picks and get the best talent we can. We will need it before this is through.

Steven Stamkos went on a deep playoff run in his 3rd season. He has talked about how it was the most important season and experience of his career (I live in Tampa now, season tickets). 

Our pipeline is repaired now, the impact from the Murray extraction was felt in 2016-2018.

the problem with the roster right now, is singular... the ROR left a crater in the lineup. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by jame

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, jame said:

Steven Stamkos went on a deep playoff run in his 3rd season. He has talked about how it was the most important season and experience of his career (I live in Tampa now, season tickets). 

Our pipeline is repaired now, the impact from the Murray extraction was felt in 2016-2018.

the problem with the roster right now, is singular... the ROR left a crater in the lineup. 

Really? Tell me who our top 3 prospects are and their ceilings. And go. 

Murray's impact will be felt into 2020 because of what he did to gut the pipeline. Those players from 2015 aren't here, the late picks from 2016, aren't here. 

We get it. You don't like the ROR trade, you don't need to remind everyone in every post you make. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by LGR4GM

[jame]

7 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I think that Bots is gonna at least wait until the bewitching hour IF he makes a move at all. I believe he hopes that this young team that went on a 10 game streak (no matter how much luck may have contributed) can figure this out for themselves. That would be a bigger learning experience and confidence builder than bringing in someone that might give false hope that one player more is the difference between winning and losing. They already have shown evidence they can play with the big boys when on their game and following the system provided.

I'm ok with trading a late 1st to get some of the players name on these threads as a 2C that have term, are young, and proven. I'm not at ease with the idea of a rental like Staal unless Bots is confident in re-signing another year or two if he feels necessary.

There are enough vets here to advise these kids through this tough time and I feel they need to figure this out amongst themselves for the better of the teams future. If you can add a key piece to the future such as a Couturier or Schenn or the likes, then I'm in as long as we don't grossly over pay. 

Couturier is a pipe dream... one of my favorite pipe dreams (he’s a younger ROR).

but I’d also be hesitant to add a younger center with term and cap (don’t we still believe in Mitts?)

Staal appeals to me because he’s a 1-3 year solution.

St Louis has turned it around, so I doubt Schenn is available, and even if he was... it’s gonna cost about what they paid for ROR... which would make it a Murray-esque move.

[jame]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Really? Tell me who our top 3 prospects are and their ceilings. And go. 

Murray's impact will be felt into 2020 because of what he did to gut the pipeline. Those players from 2015 aren't here, the late picks from 2016, aren't here. 

We get it. You don't like the ROR trade, you don't need to remind everyone in every post you make. 

Dahlin - generational

Mittelstadt - 1st line / 70 point

Olofsson - 1st line / 30 goals

Thompson - 1st line / 30 goals

Nylander - 1st line - 60 point

Asplund - Middle 6 center

Pilut - 1st pair

Guhle - top 4

borgen - top 4

Davidsson - middle 6

Laaksonen - top 4

Samuelson - top 4

Pekar - middle 6

[LGR4GM]

Guess we need to define prospect. Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Pilut are all not a prospect. They are all either rookies or in Tage's case in their 2nd year. Prospects are players outside the NHL or players who have not become full time NHL players, so I would agree Guhle fits that description. 

As for the rest. Olofsson is a 2nd line player and 30goals might be right but he's probably a 20g, 25a player at the NHL level and the powerplay is his bread and butter. Nylander hopefully gets to that. Asplund is a middle 6 center. Guhle becoming top 4 seems like a long shot, Borgen also. Davidsson might be a middle 6. Laaksonen probably has the potential to be a 2nd pairing guy, same thing for Samuelsson. Pekar might be bottom 6. 

So that's 2 defenders maybe 3. That's 4 forwards because I guarantee at least 1 never makes it. So that is 7 players none of them better than Nylander. That's a crappy pipeline if you ask me, especially when I could add 2 or 3 more players to it this year and next year if I keep those firsts. Also some of those players are another 3 years away from the NHL. Pekar, Laaksonen, Davidsson, are all going to take lots of time.

Edited January 24, 2019 by LGR4GM

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, jame said:

Dahlin - generational

Mittelstadt - 1st line / 70 point

Olofsson - 1st line / 30 goals

Thompson - 1st line / 30 goals

Nylander - 1st line - 60 point

Asplund - Middle 6 center

Pilut - 1st pair

Guhle - top 4

borgen - top 4

Davidsson - middle 6

Laaksonen - top 4

Samuelson - top 4

Pekar - middle 6

so you actually think that Olofsson-Mitts-Nylander could replace Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart on the 1st line? Heaven help us all. And when would this happen ....before or after the trade deadline? If you eventually bring up all these players how do you keep the pipeline in Roch stocked with this kind of talent without 1st rd and 2nd rd picks?

Like I've said, I'm not opposed to maybe giving up a late 1st to add certain players that will help going forward.

Get over the ROR trade.....I google the ROR trade and read many articles AND the links within them. The in general the feelings at the time of the trade and leading into the season were that we fleeced the Blues on that trade. Word on Bots that came up often was "impressive" that he got that done and didn't have to pay ROR bonus. Most articles and I believe most fans too, thought that Berglund /Sobotka would help this team at least short term more than they have(myself included). Based on previous career numbers they should've combined in production to the point of ROR's numbers (about 55-60pts). They were also to take over the face-off circle where ROR was 60%. Whether you believe it or not, they performed there respectfully (Berg was at 58% and Sobotka above 51%). There was no way Bots is at fault for Bergy leaving or knowing it would happen prior to the deal and yes it has had an impact on the team, we were winning before he left and still near the top of the league. Tage was supposed to be the prize piece and has been improving and might still become that. The 1st rd pick could still end up being the real prize providing that it's used correctly (which ever way Bots deems best, not a message board poster).

All -in-all it will take some more time to build this roster to the point where we compete every year for a good amount of time instead of jumping around the standings forever.

@LGR4GM....I only half agree with your assessment of Olofsson. He has 14g and only two of them on the PP, He may turn out to be a Skinner lite, good 5v5. He does have alot of assists on the PP though so that's where I agree with you. I would like to see him called up sometime soon to see if he can help our PP get a little action.

[Carmel Corn]

48 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Guess we need to define prospect. Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Pilut are all not a prospect. They are all either rookies or in Tage's case in their 2nd year. Prospects are players outside the NHL or players who have not become full time NHL players, so I would agree Guhle fits that description. 

As for the rest. Olofsson is a 2nd line player and 30goals might be right but he's probably a 20g, 25a player at the NHL level and the powerplay is his bread and butter. Nylander hopefully gets to that. Asplund is a middle 6 center. Guhle becoming top 4 seems like a long shot, Borgen also. Davidsson might be a middle 6. Laaksonen probably has the potential to be a 2nd pairing guy, same thing for Samuelsson. Pekar might be bottom 6. 

So that's 2 defenders maybe 3. That's 4 forwards because I guarantee at least 1 never makes it. So that is 7 players none of them better than Nylander. That's a crappy pipeline if you ask me, especially when I could add 2 or 3 more players to it this year and next year if I keep those firsts. Also some of those players are another 3 years away from the NHL. Pekar, Laaksonen, Davidsson, are all going to take lots of time.

Agree, the pipeline is NOT where it needs to be after just two seasons under the new regime.  Yes there is more talent now, but it is simply not proven yet...so you have to keep adding more.   I would also argue we need to stock the cupboard with guys who love to play a physical game vs. high skill/finesse types...you need both in the playoffs. 

Staal is having a good year, but I would hate to see the team burn a first rounder to get him.  Making the playoffs should not be the priority in 2019....but ABSOLUTELY in 2020.  Losing a 1st round series against a team like Tampa is not much of a return (ex. Bills losing to Jacksonville) vs. adding more critical pieces for the future.

[LGR4GM]

You can be high skill and physical. Again, we don't properly define physical and I hate the term. We need high skill with good skating that goes to the hard areas. 

[Samson's Flow]

What I want most for the rest of the season is lineup stability, especially with the forwards. I think it really hurts development if lines 2, 3 and 4 all have different players/combinations each game. The team should focus on finding a combination they feel comfortable with and letting them develop chemistry with each other so that a) we go into the playoffs knowing roles and linemates or b) the team has built some structure so that we can start next season strong and each player knows where they stand.

I think it would be beneficial to find a short term 2C to provide the structure I mentioned, but I don't think it is critical enough to pay a 1st round pick for it. 

[jame]

9 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

so you actually think that Olofsson-Mitts-Nylander could replace Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart on the 1st line? Heaven help us all. And when would this happen ....before or after the trade deadline? If you eventually bring up all these players how do you keep the pipeline in Roch stocked with this kind of talent without 1st rd and 2nd rd picks?

Like I've said, I'm not opposed to maybe giving up a late 1st to add certain players that will help going forward.

Get over the ROR trade.....I google the ROR trade and read many articles AND the links within them. The in general the feelings at the time of the trade and leading into the season were that we fleeced the Blues on that trade. Word on Bots that came up often was "impressive" that he got that done and didn't have to pay ROR bonus. Most articles and I believe most fans too, thought that Berglund /Sobotka would help this team at least short term more than they have(myself included). Based on previous career numbers they should've combined in production to the point of ROR's numbers (about 55-60pts). They were also to take over the face-off circle where ROR was 60%. Whether you believe it or not, they performed there respectfully (Berg was at 58% and Sobotka above 51%). There was no way Bots is at fault for Bergy leaving or knowing it would happen prior to the deal and yes it has had an impact on the team, we were winning before he left and still near the top of the league. Tage was supposed to be the prize piece and has been improving and might still become that. The 1st rd pick could still end up being the real prize providing that it's used correctly (which ever way Bots deems best, not a message board poster).

All -in-all it will take some more time to build this roster to the point where we compete every year for a good amount of time instead of jumping around the standings forever.

@LGR4GM....I only half agree with your assessment of Olofsson. He has 14g and only two of them on the PP, He may turn out to be a Skinner lite, good 5v5. He does have alot of assists on the PP though so that's where I agree with you. I would like to see him called up sometime soon to see if he can help our PP get a little action.

I honestly have no idea where you get the bolded... that's not remotely what I said or implied.

We have 4 first rounders in two drafts.... we would be able to keep our pipeline stocked the same way most teams in the league do it... with 1 1st a year....

Anyone who thought Berglund/Sobotka would help this team going forward, wasn't fit to judge the trade in the first place. They were brutal cap dumps to take on in the deal. The fact that the Buffalo Media carried the water on this trade, along with the impetus to get it done before the bonus... is all the confirmation that's needed to know that Pegula ordered the trade. A good, experienced GM would've been able to talk a dumb owner out of it. We didn't have one in place to do that. So we got fleeced and created a massive hole that we will likely spend years trying to fix. On the scale of bad organizational moves the ROR trade is on the same scale as Golisano penny pinching Briere, and losing both co caps because of it.

And of course Botts deserves some blame for bringing a quitter in to the lockerroom from which he was supposedly trying to purge sadness from.... it was on Botts to ensure Berglund had waived his NTC. Had he done his due diligence, he should've known STL was trying to pull a fast one on Berglund, and that bringing in a guy against his wishes isn't a great idea.

Yes, it will take more time... but it didn't have to. Botts very easily could've added the following to the 2017-18 roster:

• Dahlin and Skinner (two additional star level talents)
• Bogo, McCabe, Sheary, Hunwick (real NHL depth)
• Mittelstadt, Erod, Pilut (young NHL talent)
• Ullmark, Hutton

And he could've done it without cratering the roster by subtracting a 65 point Selke caliber NHL center in his prime. But instead, it WILL take more time now... significantly more time. All because of bad ownership/front office decisions.

[jame]

8 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

What I want most for the rest of the season is lineup stability, especially with the forwards. I think it really hurts development if lines 2, 3 and 4 all have different players/combinations each game. The team should focus on finding a combination they feel comfortable with and letting them develop chemistry with each other so that a) we go into the playoffs knowing roles and linemates or b) the team has built some structure so that we can start next season strong and each player knows where they stand.

I think it would be beneficial to find a short term 2C to provide the structure I mentioned, but I don't think it is critical enough to pay a 1st round pick for it. 

 

So you agree that the current state is hurting development, chemistry and structure.... but fixing that is not worth the cost of a late 1st?

This is the part I just don't get.... How is that late 1st, which has about a 50% chance of even making the NHL, and a less than 20% chance of being a top 6/top 4 player more critical than developing and building the players who have already beaten those odds?

It doesn't make any sense

[LGR4GM]

This will be the only year ROR hits 65 points. He's a 55pt player. It certainly will not take years to fix the hole considering were we currently are with Casey. Will Casey be as good as ROR? Idk, hard to tell but he will be a capable 2nd line center. 

ROR doesn't make or break this team but I agree the trade was mediocre at best. Sobotka is an offensive black hole and Berglund is gone, thankfully. We basically got Tage and a 1st for ROR and that's a risky trade. 

1 minute ago, jame said:

 

So you agree that the current state is hurting development, chemistry and structure.... but fixing that is not worth the cost of a late 1st?

This is the part I just don't get.... How is that late 1st, which has about a 50% chance of even making the NHL, and a less than 20% chance of being a top 6/top 4 player more critical than developing and building the players who have already beaten those odds?

It doesn't make any sense

I said this in another thread. To be very clear it would cost more than a 1st to bring in Staal or a player of his level. You are talking a 1st, rochester prospect, and another prospect or player. And all you get is Staal for 3 months. Your ROI isn't great there. 

[Carmel Corn]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You can be high skill and physical. Again, we don't properly define physical and I hate the term. We need high skill with good skating that goes to the hard areas. 

True, but I don't see that combination with any of our forwards.  To me, physical is going to the hard areas PLUS:  dishing out checks (vs. avoiding them), getting into the other team's faces after the whistle blows (vs. heading straight to the sanctuary of the bench), going after the other team if they cheap shot your teammate.  Someone the other team knows is willing and able to drop the gloves when needed.  If you are a defenseman on the Sabres, do you pay attention when someone like Tom Wilson is on the ice? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Isn’t time for Olofsson to be recalled to help the PP and see if he can add some depth scoring 5 on 5.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

True, but I don't see that combination with any of our forwards.  To me, physical is going to the hard areas PLUS:  dishing out checks (vs. avoiding them), getting into the other team's faces after the whistle blows (vs. heading straight to the sanctuary of the bench), going after the other team if they cheap shot your teammate.  Someone the other team knows is willing and able to drop the gloves when needed.  If you are a defenseman on the Sabres, do you pay attention when someone like Tom Wilson is on the ice? 

I don't agree with parts of this. I don't care when Wilson is on the ice, if I do, then I am not focused on doing my job.