Simple projections

[mjd1001]

We are now closing on on being 3/4 of the way through the season, so I thought I'd look at some simple projections based on where certain players (and the team) is based on a full 82 game season projection:

 

-The team is on pace for 73 points (They had 54 last year).  They are on pace to be a -40 in goal differential (they were a -113 last year)

 

As for individual players 'pace' based on what they have done so far projected over a full 82 game season:

 

O'Rielly  25 goals, 44 assists, 69 points

 

Eichel   23 goals,  31 assists, 54 points

 

Ristolainen  12 goals, 37 assists, 49 points

 

McGinn   18 goals, 19 assists, 37 points

 

Reinhart   25 goals, 12 assists, 37 points

 

Foligno  10 goals, 13 assists, 23 points

 

Moulson  6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points

 

Girgensons   9 goals, 11 assists, 20 points

 

 

So, Foligno is what he is now...but is he good enough that you want him to stick around as a 3rd line winger?

 

Most want McGinn back, and I agree. However, is he worth paying $3.5 - $4 Million a year..especially when he is likely to move down a line in the next year or two...maybe giving him less production?

 

Moulson is going to get bought out, Right??

 

Is Girgensons just having an 'off year'?  Is he a 8-10 goal scorer? 15? or should we eventually expect 20 out of him?

[PromoTheRobot]

So there is marked improvement though not nearly enough.

[Huckleberry]

Foligno is the cheap bottom 6 forward we'll need to round out our team in 3 years.

[#freejame]

I want Foligno back. He's perfect for our fourth line and I still have hopes of him being like his brother.

What are the odds the Sabres have a 70, 60, 50, and 40 point scorer this year? Personally I think ROR could hit 70, but I keep expecting Jack to slow down his point production as he wears down. Risto looks a little uninspired as of late so I'm sure he'll hit 50, but I think Reinhart is a lock for 40.

[mjd1001]

So there is marked improvement though not nearly enough.

 

I'd have to agree with you.

 

Whenever the Sabres go on a couple game losing streak, we hear callers on local radio say something to the effect that "they are barely better than last years team", which isn't true.

 

Not only are they going to beat last years team by almost 20 points...the +/- goal differential is so much better.

 

That isn't saying we should be happy with the team, but I think this is what should be expected.  Next year should be slightly better, and I think you are looking at 2016-2017 before we see a serious push into the playoffs.

 

A reasonable expectation for next year should be close to even +/- goal differential and to be near 85 points. (we can hope for better though)

Edited February 13, 2016 by mjd1001

[Sabel79]

 

 

So, Foligno is what he is now...but is he good enough that you want him to stick around as a 3rd line winger?

 

Most want McGinn back, and I agree. However, is he worth paying $3.5 - $4 Million a year..especially when he is likely to move down a line in the next year or two...maybe giving him less production?

 

Moulson is going to get bought out, Right??

 

Is Girgensons just having an 'off year'?  Is he a 8-10 goal scorer? 15? or should we eventually expect 20 out of him?

Foligno can stay for a 4th line role at a 4th line salary. Otherwise no.

 

McGinn, while a nice player, isn't worth that much, and indeed may get an offer for more than that. No thanks. There are cheaper comparable alternatives.

 

Moulson, while it's painful to watch him... I get the feeling that it's better to suck it up and pay him the next couple years as opposed to having his buyout counting against the cap for years afterwards when various ELC's will be over and Eichel, Samson, et. al. are going to want to be paid. Although, watch, they'll buy him out....

 

I am militantly indifferent to Zemgus. Again, there are other similar players out there.

[Huckleberry]

Really, Moulsons buyout isn't that bad, its one of the cheapest buyouts to have if we do it next offseason.

[TrueBlueGED]

Really, Moulsons buyout isn't that bad, its one of the cheapest buyouts to have if we do it next offseason.

A buyout doesn't make much financial sense, this year or next. If you do it this year, you're only saving about $1.1 million, and in year 3 (the year we need money for Jack/Sam/Kane) you're saving about $200k, versus just banishing him to Rochester. The cost is an additional 3 years cap hit at $900k. If as you suggest we do it next year, we save $1.1 followed by $200k (again the year we need cap room) at the cost of two more years at $833k. Even a buyout in the final year only saves $400k at the cost of $667k the following year.

 

Maybe $800-900k doesn't seem like a big deal, but that dead cap space will be there in the years we should be competing for a Cup. This could be the difference in a quality depth piece versus a poor depth piece, just for the sake of saving money when we shouldn't have any cap issues at all.

 

The benefits of a buyout just aren't there. Want to get rid of Moulson? Hope you can bamboozle a GM into taking the contract with us retaining a few million, an expansion draft saves us, or he retires. Barring any of those, sending him to Rochester is pretty clearly the best option.

Edited February 13, 2016 by TrueBlueGED