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How much should the Sabres pay to keep Stafford?

nfreeman

By nfreeman
in The Aud Club

Stafford's new contract  

47 members have voted

  1. 1. Stafford made $984K last year. He has 3 more years before UFA. He's 23, 6'1", 204, and had 20-25-45 in his 2nd full year in the NHL. If you were DR, what's the maximum you would pay him? Assume you can only get a 2nd-round pic...

    • $2MM x 2 years (or worse)
      10
    • $2.5MM x 2 years
      9
    • $2.5MM x 3 years
      11
    • $3MM x 2 years
      3
    • $3MM x 3 years
      7
    • $3.5MM x 2 years
      1
    • $3.5MM x 3 years (or better)
      0

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carpandean First Liner

carpandean

Posted
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As little as possible until he proves he can be consistent. Any shot they can build some incentives into the contract or is that only the NFL?

If I remember correctly, the only players that can have incentives are really young ones (entry contracts), really old ones (over 36, I believe) or injured ones (spent 100+ days in the previous season on IR.) Whatever the exact rules are, I'm almost certain that Stafford does not qualify for incentives.

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carpandean First Liner

carpandean

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$1.1 and $1.4 I believe. Neither are worth the money. Both are prime examples how Regier can spend $50 million and only produce a 10th place team.

Paille's is actually worse. His cap hit is $1.125 million, but his salary this year will be $1.35 million. Of course, the flip side of that is that at just $900k last year, he wasn't that overpaid.

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nfreeman Hall of Famer

nfreeman

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$1.1 and $1.4 I believe. Neither are worth the money. Both are prime examples how Regier can spend $50 million and only produce a 10th place team.

I don't necessarily disagree with being down on these 2 guys, but there isn't that much salary wasted on them. I don't think a 3rd-to-4th line player who produced 17 goals in 71 games in his 1st full NHL season is grossly overpaid at $1.4MM. Paille is a bit more overpaid based on last year than Mac is. Even so, between the 2 of them, I don't think there is more than $500K-$600K total overpayment -- and that number may go to zero this year if Mac puts in 20 goals, which is possible. The real waste comes in all the $3MM-plus guys we have who are mediocre-to-just-OK. Those guys could be replaced with much cheaper players ($800K rookies to $1.8MM vet free agents).

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shrader Hall of Famer

shrader

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Paille is a bit more overpaid based on last year than Mac is.

 

He was paid $900k last year and the production pretty much matched it. Hopefully he steps it up this year. He'll be playing for a contract again, so a nice turnaround would not surprise me at all.

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carpandean First Liner

carpandean

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He was paid $900k last year and the production pretty much matched it. Hopefully he steps it up this year. He'll be playing for a contract again, so a nice turnaround would not surprise me at all.

I think he meant that based on last year's production (i.e., if this year's ends up similar), then Paille would be more overpaid this year, when he is making $1.35 million, than MacArthur would be at $1.4 million. Of course, if Paille hits closer to his 2007-08 numbers, he would be a better value.

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shrader Hall of Famer

shrader

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I think he meant that based on last year's production (i.e., if this year's ends up similar), then Paille would be more overpaid this year, when he is making $1.35 million, than MacArthur would be at $1.4 million. Of course, if Paille hits closer to his 2007-08 numbers, he would be a better value.

 

I know, it was more of a "well, he played to his money last year, hopefully he does the same this year" type, wishful thinking comment. I think the contract year is a big thing though. I know people like to complain about how people do that, but if he does step it up in his contract year, that's obviously not a bad thing right at that moment.

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Eleven Hall of Famer

Eleven

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Ok. I was all ready to just can the kid, and then I read this. It's an honest assessment, and it isn't too far off the mark. So here's what I'd do: 2x2, or maybe 2x2.5, with three successive club options thereafter at escalating prices: third year, 4M; fourth, 5 or 5.5; fifth, 6 or 7. If Stafford really develops, well, he reaps the rewards in the option years, either because the Sabs pay him, or because he's a UFA. If he doesn't, well, the Sabres didn't pay for BS. And yeah, because his agent will insist upon it, he gets out of the club options if he's a 40-goal scorer, or 70-assist man, or whatever benchmark.

 

I have no idea whether the foregoing is permitted by the CBA, BTW.

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stenbaro Third Liner

stenbaro

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Well, you assumed away the problem. I didn't mean lose him because someone signs him to an offer sheet (although that is still possible, if unlikely). I meant that if the Sabres decide they can't afford him, they will trade him, but the poll question assumes that they won't be able to get back anything better than a 2nd-rounder. A team isn't going to give the Sabres any more than that for him, because all that team would have to do is sign him to an offer sheet for $3MM or less per year, and the compensation would only be a 2nd-rounder.

 

In other words, the uncomfortable decision to be made is: at what price would you say that you'd rather give up on him and take a 2nd rounder as opposed to being stuck with the contract?

My wife says thats my biggest problem..I assume..lol.. I beg to differ with her..My biggest problem is she cant read my mind...

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X. Benedict All Star

X. Benedict

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..He has shown some very small flashes of what type of player he could turn into..With that said the only contract I offer him is 2 yrs in the 2 million range and no more..He hasnt been consistent enuff for any more if they are looking to keep him..But I would definatley be looking into signing and trading him way before someone offered him the contract where all we get back is a 2nd rdr..His potential upside is to great to let go for another 3yr projsect if come maybe that he is already putting them through

 

Generally a 20 goal year is okay for a Right Wing. 25 is better, 30 and the guy gets paid big.

I think Stafford is 25-30 goal scorer if the team has three healthy 3 centers.

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carpandean First Liner

carpandean

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I have no idea whether the foregoing is permitted by the CBA, BTW.

Nope. If I remember correctly, incentives are only allowed for three cases under the current CBA:

 

1) Entry contract

2) Over 36

3) Spent more than 100 days in the final year of his SPC on IR

 

The details may be off slightly, but I'm pretty certain that Stafford doesn't qualify.

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Eleven Hall of Famer

Eleven

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Nope. If I remember correctly, incentives are only allowed for three cases under the current CBA:

 

1) Entry contract

2) Over 36

3) Spent more than 100 days in the final year of his SPC on IR

 

The details may be off slightly, but I'm pretty certain that Stafford doesn't qualify.

 

Gotta get rid of the "outs" for him if he does well, then. I wouldn't sign him to a lucrative contract now, because he hasn't developed completely, and I wouldn't sign him to 2x2 just to watch another team take him if he does develop.

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