Trade Timmy "The Skill" Now?

[carpandean]

he will want a big raise after his current performances.

He will only want, and possibly get, that if he continues it through the end of the season. Right now, he's at 13 games healthy (in a row.) 13! He's missed 34! And that's just this season. Right now, he's just teasing us with his skills. It will take more than 13 games to put aside his reputation. If people don't want to touch Gaborik, it will be a while before they would even think about Timmy.

[macsabre]

Sign Timmy with a decent cotract that pays him based on the games he plays.

[carpandean]

Sign Timmy with a decent cotract that pays him based on the games he plays.

Can't do it. Not allowed. He is not in his rookie contract. He is not over 36. He has not spent over 100 days of this final year of his contract on IR. Therefore, they cannot give him an incentive-laden contract (one with performance bonuses.) He would have to get injured again for a few weeks before he would qualify. His only chanced for getting re-signed at all is if he doesn't get injured again.

[Taro T]

Can't do it. Not allowed. He is not in his rookie contract. He is not over 36. He has not spent over 100 days of this final year of his contract on IR. Therefore, they cannot give him an incentive-laden contract (one with performance bonuses.) He would have to get injured again for a few weeks before he would qualify. His only chanced for getting re-signed at all is if he doesn't get injured again.

He PROBABLY doesn't qualify for the IR bonus laden contract. It depends on whether being "eligible" to be placed on the team's IR list during training camp is the same as actually being on the team's IR list. It was my understanding that he was on the IR list at the end of last season, and he was on it at the beginning of the season. And, if being eligible to be on IR is the same as being on it, then it also matters how many days of the off-season count as training camp. Players hit the ice on 9/20, but I thought they reported 1-2 days earlier which would bring his total to-date of eligibility to be on IR (which isn't the same as actually being on IR) up very close to that magic 100 day mark.

 

16.11.a ... A Player who finishes an NHL Season on the Injured Reserve List and continues to be injured and unable to perform his duties as a hockey Player by reason of the same injury at the time he reports to the Club's Training Camp in the next League Year, will again be eligible to be placed on the Club's Injured Reserve List. ...

[LabattBlue]

If the Sabres bring Connolly back it will be as the answer to their problems at center. They won't be signing Connolly and then go out to get a #2 center in free agency or trade. Is everyone willing to sign up for that.Connolly?

I'd be okay with this if I knew someone in Portland could step in when Connolly gets hurt instead of what we have seen the last 2 seasons, which is Hecht as the #2 line center.

 

The problem with this is, Zagrapan clearly hasn't made much progress in 3 seasons at the AHL level(and may not even be offered a new contract) and I believe the only incoming center next season would be Paul Byron.

[tom webster]

I'd be okay with this if I knew someone in Portland could step in when Connolly gets hurt instead of what we have seen the last 2 seasons, which is Hecht as the #2 line center.

 

The problem with this is, Zagrapan clearly hasn't made much progress in 3 seasons at the AHL level(and may not even be offered a new contract) and I believe the only incoming center next season would be Paul Byron.

 

I agree whole heartedly.

1) Either way, they need to get a few centers in the system with some size.

2) If Tim is their number one center next year, they need an additional top 6 forward who is manly center who can play wing as opposed to a wing that can play center. However, the only way they afford to pay Tim, re-sign Stafford and Sekera and bring in another top 6 forward is to trade both Hecht and Hank or pay to the cap next year (highly unlikely).

[carpandean]

He PROBABLY doesn't qualify for the IR bonus laden contract. It depends on whether being "eligible" to be placed on the team's IR list during training camp is the same as actually being on the team's IR list. It was my understanding that he was on the IR list at the end of last season, and he was on it at the beginning of the season. And, if being eligible to be on IR is the same as being on it, then it also matters how many days of the off-season count as training camp. Players hit the ice on 9/20, but I thought they reported 1-2 days earlier which would bring his total to-date of eligibility to be on IR (which isn't the same as actually being on IR) up very close to that magic 100 day mark.

 

16.11.a ... A Player who finishes an NHL Season on the Injured Reserve List and continues to be injured and unable to perform his duties as a hockey Player by reason of the same injury at the time he reports to the Club's Training Camp in the next League Year, will again be eligible to be placed on the Club's Injured Reserve List. ...

Timmy was on IR at the end of last season because he was recovering from in-season surgery to repair his hip spur. He had recovered during the Summer and then played, and was subsequently injured (broken vertebra), in preseason. He started the regular season on IR, but due to a very different injury than last year.

[Guest Sloth]

I'm loving what Connolly is doing for the Sabres right now. I really don't think Buffalo would get too much in return if they were to make a trade. Who knows? Maybe a contender will give up a huge + for the Sabres in return for Connolly. If a legitimate offer is not made, keep Connolly for the remainder of the season. I like the point somebody made earlier about teams being weary about Gaborik. If Gaborik is a question mark, that makes Connolly VERY affordable. I'd love it if Connolly signed a 2 year contract for a total of 4 million. (That'd be 2 million per season) I think a lot of teams will offer at least 3 million per year, though. And I don't think Buffalo should take that chance. If only Connolly could stay healthy...

[Taro T]

Timmy was on IR at the end of last season because he was recovering from in-season surgery to repair his hip spur. He had recovered during the Summer and then played, and was subsequently injured (broken vertebra), in preseason. He started the regular season on IR, but due to a very different injury than last year.

It still comes down to how long he was on IR. If he wasn't skating at the beginning of training camp (and I don't recall if he was or wasn't) then he started out eligible to be on IR. If he was skating right from the beginning, then he'd only be able to add at most the post-cracked vertebra preseason IR to his impressive but non-threshold crossing regular season IR total.

 

I forgot that he had re-injured during TC. My bad. But, as you state, he started the year on IR (not Injured Non-Roster as Teppo had been the previous year due to his heart condition) and was eligible to go on IR because it was due to an injury sustained while he was on the active, albeit preseason, roster. With that being the case, that he lost a few days of IR eligibility time during TC, it is more probable that he doesn't qualify for the 100 day exemption. But it also leads me to believe there is a greater likelihood that a player can be on IR in TC, than what I initially thought.

 

An interesting note (in a sad and pathethic way), looking more closely at 50.2.b.1.C.2, Teppo wouldn't have qualified for the IR bonus eligibility because he was not on IR last year. (Although he would have qualified under the Over 35 provision.)

[bob_sauve28]

What would you do if you were Tim Connelly right now and the sabres offered you a five year contract for $5 million? Would you sign that if you were him? Or would you wait out the season and try for more?

[SabresFan526]

A little late, but I just took a listen to Darcy's interview with Schopp and the Bulldog yesterday. While Darcy is a master of saying nothing and not revealing too much, his comments regarding Connolly were really interesting. Sounds like they might make a pitch to Connolly on an extension.

 

So, here's what we know, Connolly is on fire right now and his value to this team and others around the NHL could not be any higher given his injury history. However, on the trade market, he is viewed as a risk and I'm not sure you can get a ton of assets for him. Similarly, I'm not sure there is a great UFA market for Timmy post-July 1st given his injury history. I'd be hard pressed to find a team willing to throw money his way after only playing 40 games in the season and only about 1/3 of his entire contract. Not saying it's impossible, but with the uncertainties in the cap and whether or not it will go down next year, I can't see a GM willing to take on the risk and give him a big contract of $4-5 million/year. The problem for the Sabres is, knowing that they are likely not to be an active player in the free agent market, they need to look from within to fill the void left by Connolly if he does leave, and frankly there is nothing at the AHL level that is ready to come in and replace Connolly's skillset.

 

If the Sabres made a deal at the deadline, they are likely to acquire someone who is an impending UFA rather than a young stud just about to hit his prime. What team that's a seller is willing to trade a young promising asset, and would a contender be willing to part with a really promising asset for a high risk player in Connolly? For example, would the Thrashers be willing to trade Bryan Little for Connolly? I just don't think so. And would the Sharks trade Joe Pavelski for Connolly or would the Ducks trade Bobby Ryan or Ryan Carter for Connolly? Probably not either. That's why if the Sabres were to trade away Connolly, the best they can do is to get someone coming from a selling team that's an impending UFA like a Doug Weight or Mike Comrie and then after this season they would lose Connolly via trade and the other center to free agency. Given the situation both for Connolly and for the Sabres, it might actually make sense for the Sabres to get an extension done with Connolly for one year and hope he plays a lot of games next year and hope the year after the Sabres have a center who can fill the void i.e. Ennis or someone else. Because the Sabres have no real depth at center in the farm system, right now, keeping Connolly is the best option unless they can somehow acquire a young promising centerman who is not going to be a UFA for many years at the deadline.

[bob_sauve28]

A little late, but I just took a listen to Darcy's interview with Schopp and the Bulldog yesterday. While Darcy is a master of saying nothing and not revealing too much, his comments regarding Connolly were really interesting. Sounds like they might make a pitch to Connolly on an extension.

 

So, here's what we know, Connolly is on fire right now and his value to this team and others around the NHL could not be any higher given his injury history. However, on the trade market, he is viewed as a risk and I'm not sure you can get a ton of assets for him. Similarly, I'm not sure there is a great UFA market for Timmy post-July 1st given his injury history. I'd be hard pressed to find a team willing to throw money his way after only playing 40 games in the season and only about 1/3 of his entire contract. Not saying it's impossible, but with the uncertainties in the cap and whether or not it will go down next year, I can't see a GM willing to take on the risk and give him a big contract of $4-5 million/year. The problem for the Sabres is, knowing that they are likely not to be an active player in the free agent market, they need to look from within to fill the void left by Connolly if he does leave, and frankly there is nothing at the AHL level that is ready to come in and replace Connolly's skillset.

 

If the Sabres made a deal at the deadline, they are likely to acquire someone who is an impending UFA rather than a young stud just about to hit his prime. What team that's a seller is willing to trade a young promising asset, and would a contender be willing to part with a really promising asset for a high risk player in Connolly? For example, would the Thrashers be willing to trade Bryan Little for Connolly? I just don't think so. And would the Sharks trade Joe Pavelski for Connolly or would the Ducks trade Bobby Ryan or Ryan Carter for Connolly? Probably not either. That's why if the Sabres were to trade away Connolly, the best they can do is to get someone coming from a selling team that's an impending UFA like a Doug Weight or Mike Comrie and then after this season they would lose Connolly via trade and the other center to free agency. Given the situation both for Connolly and for the Sabres, it might actually make sense for the Sabres to get an extension done with Connolly for one year and hope he plays a lot of games next year and hope the year after the Sabres have a center who can fill the void i.e. Ennis or someone else. Because the Sabres have no real depth at center in the farm system, right now, keeping Connolly is the best option unless they can somehow acquire a young promising centerman who is not going to be a UFA for many years at the deadline.

Why would Connelly sign a one year contract? I just can't believe he would not be offered a better deal by another team if we shoved something like that at him. Make a guess, will he be injured a lot in the future or will he healthy and then decide what contrat to offer him. What do you think? I'd take a chance and offer him a big deal

[carpandean]

Connelly

Who? :unsure:

 

Sorry, but you do that every time. Connolly. Two o's, two n's, two l's ... no e's.

 

 

Make a guess, will he be injured a lot in the future or will he healthy and then decide what contrat to offer him. What do you think? I'd take a chance and offer him a big deal

Why not? It worked out so well for them the first time they did this. :wallbash:

 

 

Seriously, though, he might take a one year deal for the following reasons. What type of multi-year deal might he get this summer? Hard to tell, but it probably won't be anywhere near $5 million per year and probably no more than 3 years given his history. What kind of multi-year would he get if he signed a one-year deal, played 75+ games and scored 90+ points? He would probably be looking at over $5 million per year, possibly well over, and a longer term. It would be a bit of a gamble for him, but possibly one worth making to prove his injury days are behind him.

[SabresFan526]

Why would Connelly sign a one year contract? I just can't believe he would not be offered a better deal by another team if we shoved something like that at him. Make a guess, will he be injured a lot in the future or will he healthy and then decide what contrat to offer him. What do you think? I'd take a chance and offer him a big deal

Well, that didn't work out too well when you already knew he had a major concussion/neck/jaw injury meaning he would miss much of the next season after you gave him that deal. So why would you do that again?

 

I'd say this, sometimes it's not about the player but the market in general and what he'd get on the open market. Personally, I think Connolly still has to prove that he can play near a full season like 70-75+ games before I'd be willing to give him a long term deal. I also think most GMs in the NHL will feel this way, especially considering there is a very good chance that the cap will stay the same or go down. If you are a team already up against the cap and facing one of the worst economic catastrophes in history (which has a direct impact on league revenues and the cap), would you be willing to give an injury prone player a long term deal not knowing the economic future of the league? I would not. The question is, do 29 other GMs feel the same way I do? I don't know, but I'd imagine they might. I just don't think there is that great of a market for someone who has been so injury prone over his last contract.

 

I think the precedent for what you are talking about has been set or is in the process of being set this summer. You can already see this with the Havlatt negotiations in Chicago where they will not offer him anymore than $4 million/year, which is less than what he's making now because of how injury prone he has been during this last contract. Similarly, if the Wild get nothing in terms of trade value from Gaborik, I just cannot see a team signing him for longer than a one year term because he's high risk. With Gaborik, I think you'll see a team that's a Stanley Cup Contender offering him a one year $6-7 million deal just like what Hossa signed in Detroit this year. Ultimately, with Connolly, I see it playing out the same way. No one will give him a long term deal on the open market, he's too much of a risk until he proves he can play 70-75+ games in one season.

 

Given the Sabres desperate need for a talented center, the fact that there is no one in Sabres system who can replace Connolly at center, the fact that he's from the Western New York area and his dad is high school buddies with Larry Quinn, and I'm hoping he has some sort of conscience, I would think it makes the most sense for Connolly to re-sign with Buffalo after this year as he owes something to Buffalo for sticking with him and I don't think he'll do better than Buffalo on the open market this year. My opinion, Connolly re-signs a one year deal for $2.5 million and looks to make his big bucks during the 2010 offseason.

[SabresFan526]

Just a quick update from today's Buffalo News:

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/buffalosabres/story/572857.html

 

Regardless of what we think and speculate on this board, it looks like Regier wants to look at keeping Connolly beyond this year and start negotiations right now. Interesting and probably a smart move by Darcy. I'll be honest, I was not a big fan of re-signing him 3 years ago, especially to the contract they signed him at, but when he plays, there is no denying how skilled he is. If the Sabres had more options at center, I'd prefer taking a chance and letting Connolly test the market, but since they don't and I don't expect Ennis to be NHL ready for another 3-4 years, it makes the most sense for the Sabres to re-sign Connolly now if they won't be players in free agency this year.

[bob_sauve28]

Given the Sabres desperate need for a talented center, the fact that there is no one in Sabres system who can replace Connolly at center, the fact that he's from the Western New York area and his dad is high school buddies with Larry Quinn, and I'm hoping he has some sort of conscience, I would think it makes the most sense for Connolly to re-sign with Buffalo after this year as he owes something to Buffalo for sticking with him and I don't think he'll do better than Buffalo on the open market this year. My opinion, Connolly re-signs a one year deal for $2.5 million and looks to make his big bucks during the 2010 offseason.

I just don't think it works like that. Here is Connolly's big chance to sign a contract, probably his last chance for a big payday. It will be a business decision on his part, not some sentimental decision. And I'm sure a team will throw some bucks at him in the off season. I don't think there is any doubt that he can do much, much better on the open market than a one year deal for 2.5 million.

 

Of course, if he is injured Wednesday night, then I take it all back :doh: The longer he stays healthy the more his value grows down the strtetch here

[bob_sauve28]

I think the precedent for what you are talking about has been set or is in the process of being set this summer. You can already see this with the Havlatt negotiations in Chicago where they will not offer him anymore than $4 million/year, which is less than what he's making now because of how injury prone he has been during this last contract. Similarly, if the Wild get nothing in terms of trade value from Gaborik, I just cannot see a team signing him for longer than a one year term because he's high risk. With Gaborik, I think you'll see a team that's a Stanley Cup Contender offering him a one year $6-7 million deal just like what Hossa signed in Detroit this year. Ultimately, with Connolly, I see it playing out the same way. No one will give him a long term deal on the open market, he's too much of a risk until he proves he can play 70-75+ games in one season.

These situations will be interesting to watch. Both great players with injury problems.The big difference is that Connolly is out there playing right now and these guys are not. I'd rather be in our situation than either Chicago's or Minnesota's. I could see a team offering us something good for Timmy becauuse its obvious he can make a big difference immediatly, but who knows about those other guys?

[carpandean]

I just don't think it works like that. Here is Connolly's big chance to sign a contract, probably his last chance for a big payday. It will be a business decision on his part, not some sentimental decision. And I'm sure a team will throw some bucks at him in the off season. I don't think there is any doubt that he can do much, much better on the open market than a one year deal for 2.5 million.

:thumbsup: on "Connolly"

 

As for your point, I would say this: you are right that he probably does have one big payday left, but it doesn't have to be this year. He could get a significantly bigger payday after one complete season than he will coming off of two half season and one two-game season. If he believes that he has just had bad luck and can stay healthy for a year, it might be the best business decision to take a one-year deal now. Of course, there is a risk in that and it's up to Tim to decide whether the potential payday is worth it.

 

I would also say that just because one GM is stupid enough to offer someone with his injury history a longer, bigger deal doesn't mean that it is a good idea for the Sabres to. They need to decide for themselves how much they are willing to gamble on him, especially if they do it now based on 14 games healthy, and make the offer. If he takes it, great, but if he doesn't, so be it. People say that the worst thing that could happen is that another GM takes the risk, Timmy leaves and puts up 100 points. However, I would argue that it is far worse if they offer him any significant amount of guaranteed money right now based on 14 days, then he gets injured shortly thereafter. Far, far worse.

 

Finally, as for options at center, we don't have any in the system and we won't sign a big name FA, but that didn't stop Darcy from bringing in Drury or Briere. He likes to work trades and there are often options available even if we don't know about them before hand. How many times have you heard about a trade and thought "wow, we could have given them something like that for him?" Lang for a second-round pick?

[LabattBlue]

From the previously linked articel...

 

Regier said the Sabres aren't taking the stance that Connolly should reward them for their faith in him while he was injured by taking a limited deal.

 

"While that may be true [the team showed faith], that's not what this is about," Regier said. "It's about the fact we know what kind of player he is when he's back in the lineup. That's the main thing."

 

I'm not sure how to interpret this. Is DR saying that he is going to offer Connolly a contract based on his production in the few games he has played and ignore all the injuries he has incurred over the last 3 years? He has 61 points in 70 games during the time of his current contract. I could see a one or a two year deal averaging no more than 2.5 mil per season. Anything more and DR is off his rocker. Connolly has played really well(not counting the dumb pass in yesterdays game which led to Ottawa's second goal) since coming back, but you can't ignore his injury history.

[carpandean]

From the previously linked articel...

 

Regier said the Sabres aren't taking the stance that Connolly should reward them for their faith in him while he was injured by taking a limited deal.

 

"While that may be true [the team showed faith], that's not what this is about," Regier said. "It's about the fact we know what kind of player he is when he's back in the lineup. That's the main thing."

 

I'm not sure how to interpret this. Is DR saying that he is going to offer Connolly a contract based on his production in the few games he has played and ignore all the injuries he has incurred over the last 3 years? He has 61 points in 70 games during the time of his current contract. I could see a one or a two year deal averaging no more than 2.5 mil per season. Anything more and DR is off his rocker. Connolly has played really well(not counting the dumb pass in yesterdays game which led to Ottawa's second goal) since coming back, but you can't ignore his injury history.

We'll be in good shape at center as long as Timmy stays healthy and he's looking good right now. :rolleyes:

 

14 games. 14! That is far too little to risk any serious money on. They can't afford to get this one wrong again.

[cilevel]

From the previously linked articel...

 

Regier said the Sabres aren't taking the stance that Connolly should reward them for their faith in him while he was injured by taking a limited deal.

 

"While that may be true [the team showed faith], that's not what this is about," Regier said. "It's about the fact we know what kind of player he is when he's back in the lineup. That's the main thing."

 

I'm not sure how to interpret this. Is DR saying that he is going to offer Connolly a contract based on his production in the few games he has played and ignore all the injuries he has incurred over the last 3 years? He has 61 points in 70 games during the time of his current contract. I could see a one or a two year deal averaging no more than 2.5 mil per season. Anything more and DR is off his rocker. Connolly has played really well(not counting the dumb pass in yesterdays game which led to Ottawa's second goal) since coming back, but you can't ignore his injury history.

 

Agree, his injury history has to at least factor into the equation and while I think there are desparate teams out there, I think any potential offers he might receive via FA will also take that history into consideration. I think the economic outlook and how it effects the Cap over the next two years will keep teams from getting downright stupid, althouth I recognized it is atleast possible.

[bob_sauve28]

Agree, his injury history has to at least factor into the equation and while I think there are desparate teams out there, I think any potential offers he might receive via FA will also take that history into consideration. I think the economic outlook and how it effects the Cap over the next two years will keep teams from getting downright stupid, althouth I recognized it is atleast possible.

 

 

Looking at what old Sundin got I'd say Connolly will get paid by someone.

 

Call me crazy or whatever, but I hope Darcy shows Timmy the money. I understand its a huge gamble but I personally would do it. Great players like that do not grow on trees. For those that say I'm ignoring his injury history, you have a great point. He may never play a full season. Or maybe his bad luck is over.

 

 

Show Timmy the money!

[deluca67]

Looking at what old Sundin got I'd say Connolly will get paid by someone.

 

Call me crazy or whatever, but I hope Darcy shows Timmy the money. I understand its a huge gamble but I personally would do it. Great players like that do not grow on trees. For those that say I'm ignoring his injury history, you have a great point. He may never play a full season. Or maybe his bad luck is over.

Show Timmy the money!

I'm not getting the comparison. Connolly is nowhere near the level of player Sundin is.

[cilevel]

Looking at what old Sundin got I'd say Connolly will get paid by someone.

 

Call me crazy or whatever, but I hope Darcy shows Timmy the money. I understand its a huge gamble but I personally would do it. Great players like that do not grow on trees. For those that say I'm ignoring his injury history, you have a great point. He may never play a full season. Or maybe his bad luck is over.

Show Timmy the money!

 

I would also like to see him re-signed but I do think his injury history will play a role in the amount of money he gets offered by any team. I think that history makes him different than Sundin, or any other predominantly healthy UFA. What I mean by that in terms of dollars - I guess I don't see him getting offered anything north of 5 per, but again, I am not so naive as to think it is not possible.

[tom webster]

It is very unlikely anyone offers Connolly huge money based on a lot of factors not the least of which is the expected leveling off and subsequent 2010/2011 reduction in the cap. That coupled with the fact that while he will still be looked at as a huge risk and most of the big spenders have their top line players locked up for a few years and I don't think you will see a huge offer for him.

A couple of other things;

 

1) Steve Sullivan has already hinted at giving Nashville a discount because of their patience in letting him recover from his injuries.

 

2) As to Darcy's comments, I think the line were he says "that may be true" says it all with what he expects from the Connolly camp.

 

3) I think a 2 year deal makes the most sense for the Connolly side.If the camp does go down significantly in 2010/2011, a lot of teams will have to cut salary making the 2011/2012 season the time to cash in.