JohnRobertEichel

As an update of this comment of mine, check this out: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2018/week-9-dvoa-ratings After 9 weeks, the 2018 Bills offense is noticeably worse than all of the historically awful offenses that the NFL has seen since the mid-80's. This includes the 1992 Seahawks, who were only 6th worst in the past 33 years after 9 weeks of play.

The fact that the 2018 Bills are pacing so close statistically to one of the all-time 10 worst NFL offenses - one that played 26 years ago in a very different football era with much fewer offense-friendly rules - leads me to believe that the 2018 Buffalo offense is the more pathetic.

McDermott and Beane have now been involved in blow-out losses for 10 of their 25 career games in Buffalo. That is simply astonishing and atrocious. In terms of point-differential, the 2018 Bills are on pace to be the worst team in franchise history (worse than the 1971 Bills). You can make a strong statistical argument that this is the worst NFL offense at least since WW2. Their mismanagement of the singular position of quarterback has destroyed whatever other good they have done. I have ZERO confidence that they will ever build a good offense or ever properly develop Josh Allen. I now long for the days of Dick "7-9" Jauron and Chan "6-10" Gailey...two deer-in-the-headlight coaches who at least were capable of taking inferior talent and keeping them competitive in games.

I think I've just about lost all interest in following this team for as long as McDermott and Beane are still employed here.

I care whether or not they are. I still believe in the concept of innocence until proven guilty in a court of law. And you don't have to be a rich, good-looking man who regularly frequents bars and night clubs in order to meet gold diggers or women with borderline personality disorder. Those kinds of women are everywhere. And I'm not suggesting this accuser is one of those types of women. Or that Kane is innocent.

I count 6 of the top 14 as now having been affiliated with a Sean McDermott offense. Impressive.

McBeane are safe this season and next. I've been hearing that Allen will be shelved for these last 8 games. How convenient. This was supposed to be a 2-3 week injury two weeks ago. So basically, 2019 will be Allen's rookie year and that will be the excuse for another season of total incompetence on offense.

I'd be okay with him at half his current salary ($2.5 million) for 1 year.

Jeebus...can't believe I forgot that game. Nice catch! Yes, it counts as a MNF game in my book because it was played on a Monday night and is professional football.

Where are you going with this? Running up the gut 3 times and punting isn't an example of a ball-control offense. That's an example of a bad offense. Right, my point was that the Bengals didn't slow Mahomes down. They are one of many defenses that may not be built to adequately do so. The Bills, oddly enough, may only be a solid #2 CB away from being one of those teams that can match up well with KC.

Exactly. NFL history shows that teams adapt to trends all the time. Defenses will adjust to the KC offense in time. Right now, many defenses aren't built to contain them. The Bengals were one of those teams on Sunday. Any team that is deep at CB, has fast LB's, and can dial up creative blitz packages should be able to slow Mahomes down this year. Also, it should be noted that having an identity of a "ball-control offense" does not necessarily mean that the offense is incapable of scoring quickly when circumstances warrant it. Every offense, for example, runs 2-minute drills and has specialized players on the roster needed to execute these plays. And of course I don't subscribe to the idea that scoring in 4 minutes is inherently superior to scoring in 8 minutes. Time of possession is often a very important factor in deciding games.

In my opinion, you can still win big in this league with a traditional formula that would make Lou Saban and Chuck Knox blush with pride: that is, a great defense and a run-oriented ball control offense with an efficient, opportunistic passing game. Where McDermott and Beane have failed so far is that: 1. They have yet to build an elite defense. 4th overall in yards/game is very good, but they range from mediocre to poor in most other metrics, including 22nd overall in passer rating allowed and 26th overall in 3rd down %. This is not exactly the 85 Bears or 00 Ravens or 02 Bucs or 13 Seahawks here. 2. They have yet to build a strong running game on offense. The Bills are currently among the bottom quarter of rushing offenses in terms of yards/carry (3.9). 3. They clearly have yet to put together an efficient passing game. The median team passer rating in the NFL is 94.6, a number which was once the domain of the truly elite passing offenses in the 20th century. So the definition of "efficient passing game" is now skewed to somewhere in the 90's. Where are the Bills currently at? 48.8. I kid you not. Forty-eight point eight. Next closest is the vaunted Arizona aerial assault with 64.7. Their excuses for the aforementioned include: dead cap space, unexpected Wood/Incognito retirement, necessary rookie QB growing pains, etc... I was sort of willing to accept these reasons, but only to a point. Getting blown out in what will be 5 of 8 games this season does not make me "trust" whatever "process" is being espoused. Not-so-fun fact: the Buffalo Bills last won a Monday night football game in 1999. They have been 0-6 since.

The bottom line is that Skinner is worth that risk if he's still performing well by the early spring. This isn't a Leino/Hodgson/Moulson situation or even an Okposo situation. Skinner is on another level of ability. We've been looking for a genuine top-line winger who is fast, can score goals, can play well with Eichel, and isn't a locker room cancer. VERY early indications are that Skinner fits that description, so why not try to keep what you need? I think he's still young enough (will be 27 in May) to be considered part of the new Eichel/Reinhart/Mitts/Dahlin/Risto core. And besides, it's good to have a more veteran member of the core and also to have a more even distribution of ages among the roster. For those concerned about the salary cap ramifications: remember that a bunch of dead weight is coming off this summer, Bogo's $6 million comes off next summer, and Okposo's $6 million dips to $4 million before coming off the books completely in 4 years. JB can easily work in a lengthy 7- or 8-year Skinner contract and not jeopardize the team's ability to keep their Mitts/Dhalin type of players long-term. Also, I'm happy to see the poll is overwhelmingly in favor of signing Skinner rather than trading him for future prospects. I was afraid that the classic Buffalo sports fan mentality would creep in...that is, always hoping to build for a better future at the expense of wanting to win in the present.

That might have been me earlier in the season, but I seriously doubt you can find any Bills fan now who can defend the current Beane/McDermott regime. Four blowout losses in seven games this season! Fielding the worst statistical offense in the modern NFL era! Before today, I might have made the argument that McDermott is at least building an elite defense. But it appears that he just completely lost the locker room. His antics and incompetence surrounding the positions of QB, WR, and OL are too much. And we all are aware of it now, fans and players alike. You can't pray and clap away stupid, apparently.

And Regier pretty much did the same thing in 2013. Tim Murray was an all-time incompetent GM, but so was post-lockout Regier. From 2012-2014, the Sabres had SIXTEEN draft picks within the top 74....5 of them 1st rounders and 7 of them 2nd rounders. Only 4 of those picks are currently on the team (Girgensons, McCabe, Risto, Reinhart). The draft day incompetency during the early years of this playoff drought is the biggest reason why the franchise is where it's at right now. Murray should never hold an important job in the NHL ever again; the same goes for Regier, wherever that joke of a GM is in this world. Anyway...this is a great thread, so I'd like to update it. Keeping the rules simple, rank all Sabres prospects based on their estimated long-term NHL impact. This includes their pure hockey talent, work ethic, development time remaining, etc... Exclude those currently with the big club (so no Dahlin, Mitts, Tage, Ullmark) and those whom you think have no long-term NHL future: 1. Nylander 2. Pilut 3. Guhle 4. Asplund 5. Olofsson 6. Davidsson 7. Samuelsson 8. Luukkonen

Sure, but in the year 2018, I would call that fantastically stupid advice.

Yep. The entire Cold Front was fun to watch and for 2 years was arguably the most dominant 4-3 DL in franchise history - even better than the 1964-65 DL. Mario Williams and Dareus had Hall of Fame talent, though they were not what McDermott would call "process-trusting" characters. Kyle Williams is an obvious future Wall of Famer and so might be Hughes if he finishes his career in Buffalo.

I think McCoy is the best performing Buffalo Bill since 2005. He spearheaded the clear #1 rushing offense in the NFL during his first 2 years here and made the Pro Bowl all 3 seasons. Greg Roman was very innovative and did an outstanding job of maximizing the skill set of McCoy and complementing him with a running QB (Taylor) and a power RB (Karlos Williams, Gillislee). Daboll should have taken some game film notes from those 2 years. Owens, Peters, and Lynch are future Hall of Famers, but they weren't performing at elite levels while with the Bills (Peters was beginning to do so, but it didn't seem to lead to any actual results on the field due to the incompetence of Jauron, Losman, and Trent). Moorman was the best punter in the NFL for quite a while, but some may be biased against special teamers in this discussion. Maybe Schobel? He seemed to perform at a consistent Pro Bowl level for his entire career. Very underrated. How about the Buffalo Bills Cold Front from 2013-14? Wood and Incognito from 2015-16? The Hyde/Poyer/White secondary? We also saw singularly great seasons from Byrd (2009), Spiller (2012), and Alexander (2016). Maybe I'm missing some other names....a whole lot of bad football was played here in the 21st century, so a lot of these seasons tend to blur together for me. The 1990's Bills are so much clearer in my memory. My first year following this team was 1989. I remember the Bickering Bills well and how down I was about the state of my team...

1. Yes, as you admit, more time might be needed. It is very possible that a rookie QB, first-year OC (for the Bills), and an OL with two new interior starters will get better at their respective jobs as the season progresses beyond 5 games. Their improvements should, in turn, help increase McCoy's production. 2. My point was that McCoy's influence on the offense also goes beyond his own actual production. His mere presence on the field changes how the defense aligns itself pre-snap. McCoy adds new dimensions to a playbook that Ivory's presence can't replicate. And no DC in the NFL fears Murphy, while many still do gameplan specifically for McCoy. 3. Fair enough, but I'm only saying that I'm not sure McCoy has quite hit that infamous RB "age wall" just because he is on the wrong side of the arbitrary number of 30. I need more data. And I'm not suggesting that McCoy can return to his first-team all-pro days. But is he still a top-10 NFL RB? Very possible. 4. Is this a reference to his alleged off-the-field troubles with trashy women? None of those allegatons will stick in a court of law. The fundamentals of the American legal system haven't changed, even in the #MeToo era. In the locker room, McCoy is unanimously praised for his work ethic and professionalism. Coaches and teammates love the guy and elected him as their captain. 5. Thanks for the clarification on that one. I remember a time when trading Lynch for a 4th and a conditional 5th looked like an absolute steal for the Bills. Maybe this haunting memory clouds my judgment on any prospective McCoy trade. 6. Yes you can. We can have a very detailed debate on this one...maybe some other time...but in short, I think the Bills are a high-priced #1 WR, a high-priced G, a few relatively inexpensive filler free agents, another draft like the previous two, a Jared Goff-like sophomore year development trajectory for Allen, and a Brady physical decline from being a Super Bowl contender next season. All of this won't require $90+ million of cap space. 7. They'll hit a wall for their final 9 games? For one thing, 6 of those are at home and all 9 are in the Eastern time zone. Brady is the only elite QB they will face. The defense has been performing like a top-5 unit for the past 14 quarters. Like I mentioned above, there is reason to believe the offense can progress from "historically bad" to "good enough." The 2018 Bills are the same or better than the 2017 Bills at every position except QB, LG, and C. More experience in the Daboll system for Miller and Bodine can help narrow that gap in OL talent. If Allen can cut down on the interceptions, he will easily surpass Tyrod Taylor's low QB ceiling.

My issues with trading McCoy: 1. 45 carries spread over 4 games is not a large enough data set to make a determination on McCoy's current ability. He's been averaging 3.8 yards per carry while injured, behind perhaps the worst OL in the league, and up against defenses that have been stacking the line because they do not fear a rookie QB throwing to inarguably the worst WR corps in the NFL. 2. Neither Ivory nor Murphy can replace what McCoy brings to the offense. Ivory is a completely different type of RB (old school north-south power back), and Murphy so far appears to be not nearly as good against defenses in the regular season as he is against defenses during the preseason. 3. Three fellow future Hall of Fame RB's older than McCoy are still getting it done in the NFL as feature backs: Peterson, Lynch, and Gore. 4. Perhaps the most important aspect to this season is the development of Josh Allen. Not only is McCoy the best playmaker on the offense, but he appears to be developing good locker room chemistry with Allen. It makes more sense to make an honest effort to establish a running game this season and relieve some of the pressure on Allen in having to win games through the air. 5. Rumors have the Eagles not interested in offering more than a 5th round draft pick for McCoy. This is quite simply not a high enough pick to justify losing McCoy. 6. The extra cap space is not at all needed. Beane will probably not get anywhere close to spending up to the current $90+ million cap space limit for 2019. 7. Six weeks into the season, the Bills could realistically be tied for first place in the division upon completing what many consider to be the toughest part of their schedule. Deshaun Watson is day-to-day with a chest injury. The Pats play the Chiefs on Sunday. The Dolphins play the Bears. The Buffalo defense is trending toward "elite" status and is already top-10 in several important statistical categories despite that disastrous start to the season. Buffalo's special teams feature the best kicker in the NFL. Like SwampD said, it is the nature of many Buffalo sports fans to always be thinking about building for a more hopeful future rather than living in the present moment and focusing on winning now. It's a mindset that has been molded in part by a 17-year NFL playoff drought and a 7+ year NHL playoff drought. But it's one that needs to stop. Franchise rebuilding projects need not be based on stockpiling super-high draft picks over geological timespans. If Beane, McDermott, JB, Housley, and the Pegulas really want to talk about changing locker room cultures...start by winning games and raising expectations.

I always thought that was out of organizational necessity at RW rather than any perceived lack of ability at C. Tage Thompson is the only other legit, NHL-ready young guy we have at RW. Okposo and Pominville are over 30 and deteriorating, Bailey sucks, etc... A major question for Reinhart's long-term potential here is this: where does a relatively slow-skating but supposedly very cerebral hockey player best fit on a fast-skating team? In the middle of the action at center? Or in the corner at wing? Great win, by the way! Lots of room for improvement, but it's only game 2 for such a young team with so many new pieces. I'm not going to single anyone out until at least after the road trip out west is over. Except for Beaulieu...that dude needs to sit.

For me, "fun" is not how I would describe watching Mahomes. He's just another very painful reminder that McDermott/Beane have no idea what they're doing when it comes to evaluating offense: offensive line, wide receivers, offensive coordinator, but especially QB. For those who forgot, Mahomes fell into our lap during the 2017 draft at #10.

I believe the 2013 draft was when Regier was still GM. At least 6 players from the Regier days remain with the franchise: Girgensons and McCabe and Ullmark from the 2012 draft, Risto and Bailey from the 2013 draft, and Larsson via trade. One could also include Pominville and Moulson, I suppose.

This makes the most sense to me: G1: Hutton G2: Ullmark D1: Ristolainen - Scandella D2: Dahlin - McCabe D3: Bogosian - Beaulieu F1: Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart F2: Sheary - Berglund - Okposo F3: Nylander - Mittelstadt - Thompson F4: Rodrigues - Sobotka - Pominville Extra: Nelson, Wilson, Girgensons Injury: Hunwick, Larsson Rochester: Baptiste, Bailey, Guhle, Pilut, Smith, Asplund My only question is whether Baptiste and Bailey will clear waivers. I haven't quite given up on them, though I don't blame anyone who already has.

Awesome thread! I don't have much of value to add, other than I see the Eastern Conference as 3 Tiers: Tier 1 (5): Caps, Penguins, Bruins, Lightning, Maple Leafs Tier 2 (4): Blue Jackets, Devils, Flyers, Panthers Tier 3 (6): Devils, Islanders, Rangers, Canadiens, Senators, Red Wings And that I fully expect to see the Sabres competing with the Tier 2 teams for a playoff spot. If we're still stuck in Tier 3, then Housley may need to go and further roster purging may be necessary.