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Everything posted by IKnowPhysics
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"Increasingly Substantiated BS" rumor thread- 2014 Edition
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
Not terrible, but considering how much ridiculous cash value Ehrhoff's contract has, I'd bump that a little in our favor: Moulson + Ehrhoff for Toffoli + 2015 1st + 2016 2nd (we have LA's 2014 #2, 2015 #2 already) I think Ehrhoff's worth a little more than a low 1st and 2nd, just enough more to keep LA happy to give us Toffoli for Moulson. -
GAME DISCUSSION THREAD GDT: Buffalo at Dallas 3-3-14 at 8:00 PM EST
IKnowPhysics replied to 26CornerBlitz's topic in The Aud Club
I don't Google Image Search "tank" five different ways every other day for nothing. -
Shake up in the office PAT LaFONTAINE RESIGNS
IKnowPhysics replied to Jeanbe's topic in The Aud Club
FTFY -
Shake up in the office PAT LaFONTAINE RESIGNS
IKnowPhysics replied to Jeanbe's topic in The Aud Club
Troof. Medical stuff for players is pretty much (undeservedly) public knowledge. Medical stuff for front office personnel is not and should never be. -
Shake up in the office PAT LaFONTAINE RESIGNS
IKnowPhysics replied to Jeanbe's topic in The Aud Club
I'd be surprised if most NHL front office personnel don't sign NDAs when they leave a job. I bet Tim Murray signed one when he left Ottawa. I bet Darcy signed one when he left here. Probably Lindy too. It's not a sign of scumbaggery, it's a sign of a company trying to protect intellectual property and corporate knowledge in a competitive environment. Happens in lots of industries. -
"Increasingly Substantiated BS" rumor thread- 2014 Edition
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
Sens are shopping Spezza. Again. Do we even have a conversation about biting on this? Not sure we do. He's got a limited NTC. It's not even a very good report. And Bryan Murray doesn't even want to talk about it. -
Shake up in the office PAT LaFONTAINE RESIGNS
IKnowPhysics replied to Jeanbe's topic in The Aud Club
Yep. -
GAME DISCUSSION THREAD GDT: Buffalo at Dallas 3-3-14 at 8:00 PM EST
IKnowPhysics replied to 26CornerBlitz's topic in The Aud Club
We're on a three game winning streak, within four points of second (last), with two games in hand. Completely unacceptable. We need this tank to start crushing it. I SAID CRUSH IT! And because it seems like we're finding new ways to get our tank busted up lately, I'm also tasking anti-aircraft and mine sweeping assets to this one. -
Finding hidden gems in the NHL draft, interactive visualization
IKnowPhysics replied to Hsoj25's topic in The Aud Club
Very nice. I like stats that are well-presented visually. First immediate take-away: that first half of the first round is the honey pot for players. That's what we should be tanking for. Mid 1st-2nd round is extremely so-so. 3rd rounds are a crap shoot. 4th round+ is just about no-man's land. Except for... Second: According to the stats presented, it doesn't matter when you draft a goalie. Like, at all. -
"Increasingly Substantiated BS" rumor thread- 2014 Edition
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
Correct. Plus, if you do what I mentioned, you get not just McDavid, you get 2/3/4 outstanding other players in that draft class, which could end up being the best draft class for any team ever. So even if one or two guys bust/injure/disgruntle, you still got some outstanding players. And they'll all develop together. That'd be a sweet team. I think that's better than trading your players to decent teams, ending up with so-so 1st round draft picks and attempting to trade 2/3/4 of those picks up to get McDavid (which probably isn't possible anyways). Trade the players to ###### teams, paying some premium or not getting as much in return with that great 1st rounder. Then win the lottery or don't, you still get one year where you possibly got an entire line of great players. UFAs will still exist in the future for building out the rest of the team. -
"Increasingly Substantiated BS" rumor thread- 2014 Edition
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
Sure. But look at their GMs. C'mon, just look at them. -
"Increasingly Substantiated BS" rumor thread- 2014 Edition
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
Agreed. This is for another thread, but I think Seattle's next, but they need a new building and investors. Key Arena could suffice in the short term, but a deal would have to be in place for new digs for the league to get there. I think it's more likely that another franchise gets moved there, thereby not forcing an expansion draft. -
"Increasingly Substantiated BS" rumor thread- 2014 Edition
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
Of course. One presumption was that the teams that suck this year will substantially suck next year as well. I haven't seen much improvement from them. Oh, ###### that. -
"Increasingly Substantiated BS" rumor thread- 2014 Edition
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
Keep in mind that Connor McDavid is that good. A once in 5-10 years type of player (at least according to Don Cherry in the D&C yesterday). But expecting to load up on picks and trading picks at draft time to get that #1 overall pick is extremely unlikely. So what we need to do is target the teams that suck and acquire their 1st round picks to increase the chance of winning the lottery. I'm talking about guys like Ehrhoff to Edmonton for their pick (and more) and some combination of Stafford, Stewart and/or Moulson to Florida (and some other details) for theirs. New York will hopefully defer (and still suck balls). That would give us, at the current standings: Buffalo 25% Edmonton 18.8% Florida 14.2% New York 10.7% That totals to a 68.7% chance of winning the lottery for McDavid, plus whatever else we got back in trades, plus a guarantee for four of the top five players in a strong draft (regardless of lottery). I think it's really, really aggressive, but definitely not impossible. And I like Ehrhoff. edit: I forgot about Calgary, but ###### Calgary. We could trade to them as well and make it totally ridiculous at 76.9% and five of the top six players, or if we didn't, it'd be down to only 66.1%. -
"Increasingly Substantiated BS" rumor thread- 2014 Edition
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
It was just posted the other day. I agree with you. -
So we can phrase the trade a few ways: STL gets: Miller as just a rental, Ott as just as a rental, and no significant playoff success: BUF gets: Halak, Stewart, Carrier, 1st round pick 2015, 3rd round pick 2016 Opinion: That's a pretty ###### good haul for two rentals. Something like Halak, a 1st and a prospect for a couple months of Miller, and Stewart + 3rd for a couple months of Ott. OR STL gets: Miller as just a rental, Ott as just as a rental, significant playoff success, 2nd round pick 2014, 3rd round pick 2014 BUF gets: Stewart, Carrier, 1st round pick 2014, 1st round pick 2015 OR STL gets: Miller locked up before the draft, Ott as just a rental, no significant playoff success, 2nd round pick 2014, 3rd round pick 2014 BUF gets: HalakStewart, Carrier, 1st round pick 2014, 1st round pick 2015 Opinion: Even better haul for the Sabres if it's just for rentals. It turns out that the price of success OR the price of signing Miller pre-draft for STL is the difference between a mid-low 2nd round pick (like pick 45-55) and a very low 1st round pick (pick 27-30) minus the cost of a high 3rd round pick (61-63) for and a who knows 3rd round pick (probably 75-85). A nice little bump-up for the Sabres. Ends up being something like Miller and a 2nd for Halak, Stewart, Carrier, and a 1st, plus Ott and a 3rd for a 1st. OR STL gets: Miller locked up after the draft, Ott as just a rental, no significant playoff success BUF gets: Halak, Stewart, Carrier, 1st round pick 2015, 2nd round pick 2016 Opinion: Still not a bad haul, but a little less than the others. Something like 1st and 2nd and Halak for Miller long term and Stewart and Carrier for Ott. Bottom line: We want that 1st round pick for the mid low 2nd and high 3rd, but if Miller doesn't sign until after the draft, we still get a free mid-low 2nd rounder, and that's better than a 3rd three drafts from now. I hope it would, and I think Tim Murray's smart enough to cover that loophole.
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"Increasingly Substantiated BS" rumor thread- 2014 Edition
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
Terry Pegula: We should try to draft everyone. Tim Murray: Everyone? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBKXu3Kg4yg -
BREAKING NEWS: Sabres hire G. Gordon Liddy as Vice President of First Niagara Center Plumbers Unit.
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Never, ever. I usually glance at the thread author to gauge how stupid it might be. Do I need to start doing that? Probably not.
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This was posted this in another thread, but I'd like to get it in here. From TSN: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=444922 Reading that ###### in prose is a little tricky, so let's break it down: If St Louis makes it to the Conference Final OR Ryan Miller signs with St Louis before the 2014 draft: BUF gets: STL 1st round pick in 2014 STL gets: BUF 2nd round pick (from MIN) and BUF 3rd round pick If St Louis doesn't make the Conference Final AND Ryan Miller signs after the 2014 draft: BUF gets: STL 2nd round pick in 2016 If St Louis doesn't make the Conference FInal AND Ryan Miller doesn't sign with St Louis: BUF gets: STL 3rd round pick in 2016
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Is that what this thread is trying to be? It wasn't Pegula meddling, it was one of Pegula's guys... Idiotic conspiracy theorists couldn't provide evidence that Pegula was "meddling" (which was loosely defined for convenience), so now every ###### guy that gets hired in the front office gets put on trial as a tool for Pegula to remotely do his meddling? For ######'s sake. That is brain-rottingly stupid.
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I'm torn. Because of my understanding/lack of understanding of exactly what the conditions are for the conditional pick. The best possible draft would come from the following scenario: St Louis tanks, but Ryan Miller signs with them anyways before that mystery signing deadline. I believe that nets us a 1st round pick in 2014, and would be higher than if the Blues actually made it deep in the playoffs. But if Ryan doesn't sign, our conditional pick gets knocked back, possibly as low as the 2016 3rd rounder. Ryan's in control in this scenario. The best scenario where Ryan's contract doesn't control the fate of the pick is that the Blues make the conference finals. We'd get the 1st round pick in 2014, but it could only be as high as the 27th pick. And that requires that the Blues go deep in the playoffs. Note that they haven't done that since 2001; they lost in the Semifinals in '12 and Quarterfinals in '13, after finishing tied for 2nd in points in '12 and finishing 6th in '13. Blues are currently second in the league, with 22 games to go and a five point difference between second and seventh. I believe it boils down to the question: Will Ryan Miller resign with St Louis? If definitely yes, we boo the ###### out of that team to get the higher pick. If definitely no, we want that team to win at least two rounds, which may be within their power, but not absolutely. The second option is possibly the safer play, but the first option gets the best return.
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It was asked at the press conference yesterday what the role of Joe Battista was. You can rely on actual information instead of wildly imaginative speculation, if you choose. Without seeing more information, it sounds like he's in a highly paid position somewhere between Assistant General Manager and Assistant to the General Manager. Reading his bio, it sounds like he knew Pegula from Penn State, where he helped launch the new NCAA hockey program. The guy was a co-founder of the ACHA (which has almost 500 teams in it now), was Head Coach of the Penn State ACHA team for 19 years (winning six national titles), and worked for the Penguins for a few years. He's a hockey guy doing hockey things, working underneath Tim Murray. Doesn't, on paper, seem like the type to maliciously try to work outside of his job title. This "telling Ted Nolan about Ryan and Steve" is all complete junk. Battista was asked to do a simple clerical task by the person he works for, when the person he works for was understandably busy with a crucial last-minute-before-gametime deal. Absolutely nothing more, and it's not worth any more conversation.
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Shake up in the office PAT LaFONTAINE RESIGNS
IKnowPhysics replied to Jeanbe's topic in The Aud Club
I think unless Pat opens up later at some point in time, this will go down as a Sabres story that very few will know the details of, sort of like the story of what started the Hasek-Nolan feud. And it may not have any appreciable impact on how the team operates. -
Shake up in the office PAT LaFONTAINE RESIGNS
IKnowPhysics replied to Jeanbe's topic in The Aud Club
Last question from the full-length audio: "Would you characterize Terry as disappointed?" Ted Black: "Yes, I would. I think we're all disappointed."