That Aud Smell

Popko and Muhleman were promoted fairly recently (first half of 2017), but not weeks ago. This photo of Popko never got the love it deserved.

Ggah! Of course. Thanks for taking my meaningg, thouggh.

This is a solid inference. The timing is conspicuous. Maybe these folks were clashing with the consultants.

This is a really odd look, to say the least. I wish there were a Wiki for the Pegulas' hirings and firings since they come on the scene as pro sports team owners. Because I feel like there have been a lot. And you know what's weird? Gregg Brandon still has a job with PSE. That's weird for at least 2 reasons: (1) He's the brother of Russ (separated from PSE in disgrace) and (2) he uses two G's in a first name that clearly only needs 1.

This game is nucking futs.

Tierney’s charts generally indicate that the Leafs are “fun.” Sounds right.

I'm all for a healthy serving of Leafenfreude. I will add: I'm fairly convinced that all fan bases are more or less the same, in terms of the kinds of people that populate them. I also think that, the larger a team's fan base is (such as with the Leafs), the more obsessive know-it-alls, hobbyist GMs, kooks, wingnuts, and tinfoil hat wearers there are. Which is to say, I think there's a huge majority of Leaf fans who aren't bent out of shape over Muzzin and Montour (and a big chunk of that super majority who are only vaguely aware of this sort of thing). And then there's that small slice I mentioned above -- is it 10%? -- who are just frothing at the mouth over stuff like this.

army intelligence? nah. my understanding is that the corsi/fenwick numbers are what amount to basic advanced stats -- the top crust just below the surface. the people who do that stuff for a living dig way, way deeper, evidently.

Also a good take. At the end of the day, it matters greatly (1) how much is being spent and (2) what is being purchased. I think XGMTM had issues with both elements.

A few weeks ago, we talked about Eichel needing a Marleau-like vet to mentor him. I saw a Tweet today indicating that Matthews' basic advanced stats with Marleau are pretty bad, and away from him (and with another player whose name I can't recall) are quite good. Fwiw.

I didn't really follow along on the JBOT teflon business.** But this ^^^ part of the take makes a lot of sense to me. ** There's only so many ways to structure a trade in terms of assets going which way for what/whom. Sabre fans complained about XGMTM's trades of prospects and picks for NHL prime-aged players because ... it didn't produce a winning team. We will complain likewise about JBOT's moves if they similarly fail.

Interesting tidbit - thanks, @LGR4GM. I'm sure many of the successful coaches are jerks. OTOH, there's always more than one way to skin a cat. Anyone ever hear that, say, Joel Quenneville was a complete a-hole? I haven't. (But maybe he is?)

I infer that his preferred # is 26.

That is true - Ham Sandwich is the OG PH. Maybe it needs to be GRPH and HCPH? Also, it's been a minute since I heard GRPH rant about Reinhart, but man do I recall him just hating the player and possibly even the young man himself on some level.

Gotta dig this one out for tonight.

Lots of good content here - my thanks to @TrueBlueGED and @Taro T especially. From what little digging I did on the advanced stat sites, I had a nagging fear that Mountour could become a bit of a whipping boy for fans owing to the fact that, according to some, he's not great defending the attack in his own end (i.e., that he's average/good in that regard, but excels at other (more modern?) elements of a d-man's game (transition, puck movement)). A notion: If Dahlin promptly becomes a true 1D, Montour may be good enough to skate with him.

Ah. I dig. It's mos def part of the picture. It's a bit of an aberration is all (imo). But those happen! Frequently, in fact.

how could it properly be disregarded? it happened. it should be regarded in its proper context.

roughly. which, i think, is the point. STL probably needs the balance of the season to level out to where their underlying numbers predict they should be. and it still may not happen.

I don't know enough about the metrics, tbh, but I don't think they're ever really off. They may require additional context, of course. My understanding is that STL was good to very good on things like Corsi, shot share, expected goal differential -- all that good stuff -- but was still muddling around in terms of actual points. My guess is that something like PDO -- sometimes linked with "puck luck" -- was suppressing their points. I would also disagree that, if the underlying metrics are not in line with a 10-game win streak, then the metrics need to be adjusted. Rather, the metrics are predicting that what's happening is unsustainable from a production standpoint. But things like randomness, chaos theory (!), PDO, "getting the bounces," and so on have roles to play as well. Those are just harder to predict, or count on. A few years ago, COL had an entire season that sort of defied their metrics. IIRC, they crashed back to earth the following season. One problem with deploying the metrics comes when people who don't quite understand them in context (e.g., me) try to explain and apply them. I probably know just enough to be dangerous, as they say.

COYR. I declared for Liverpool years ago based on Bill Simmons' write-up for the EPL that he did for ESPN's fledgling online presence. It was the song that got me. That, and it was the home of the Beatles. My fandom has crept up on me. When Gerrard slipped, I was bummed -- but not quite bummed like a fan would be. Nowadays, I find myself thinking about the title race as much, if not more, than the Sabres' fortunes. Nervy stuff. City is a machine.

Friday night. Rangers in town. Should be a fun atmosphere in the building. Let's go, Buffalo! man, is he still slight. imagine him in 3 years' time?

Because most (nearly all of) their underlying metrics have been better all season long than what the Sabres had during their streak. And most of those same metrics were predicting more success than they were having when they were firmly in lottery territory. Many here have said they improved when their goaltending improved; I suspect their overall PDO had been abnormally low, too. The Sabres' underlying metrics did not support a 10-game win streak. By that measure, they were playing pretty well, IIRC, but not *that* well. That run was magical.

Interesting. But isn't Frodo more of an unheralded bottom 6 forward who does all the little things, the dirty work, kills penalties, blocks shots? ROR is leading his team in points. That seems more like Orc-slaughtering badassery, to me. Perhaps this warrants its own thread - lol.

Not for nothing: He's trending toward being an 80-point player this season. With some distance from the trade, and perhaps in light of the numbers he's posting this season, I am more resolute than ever that there were non-on-ice considerations of which we are ignorant, but which have been talked about here as rumours and/or insider information, that compelled this trade to happen. For that reason, I think it's a fool's errand to talk about the Sabres potentially winning that trade in terms of hockey assets. JBOT did not move a player of ROR's quality in the manner he did without good cause. (Btw, I'm not saying it was the right decision -- just that a rational GM perceived good cause.) This was a bitter, jagged pill to swallow.